Jump to content

2021 DRAFT PROSPECTS


Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Sure. But I think Okudah already has the ability to be an elite player. So if you can get a top talent at another position, why wouldn't you? I would trust Pleasant and Glenn to get the most out of guys you draft later. I won't say that you can't rely on other coaches to do the same, only that you run into the issue of diminishing returns. 

Oh. Well, sure, if we're in the business of getting top talent later in drafts: absolutely. Give me that deal every time. I'm operating under the assumption that top talents are most often selected early in the draft, but, sure, if teams can just wait, I think every single team should trade down with every single pick and aim to take top talents later in the draft.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

I think I'd just trade down. Considering the coaching talent you have in the defensive backfield, I don't think I'd spend another top pick on a CB. Pleasant and Glenn ought to be able to get the best out of guys drafted later (I've seen Pleasant do that with multiple players).

I agree to a point. But IMO, if we traded down and a DB was BPA, I'd draft that player and develop what we have. Whoever doesn't pan out can be moved. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Oh. Well, sure, if we're in the business of getting top talent later in drafts: absolutely. Give me that deal every time. I'm operating under the assumption that top talents are most often selected early in the draft, but, sure, if teams can just wait, I think every single team should trade down with every single pick and aim to take top talents later in the draft.

Well, I watched the Holmes/Pleasant combination help build us arguably the NFL's best pass defense in 2020 with Jalen Ramsey, a third round safety (JJ), a sixth round safety (Fuller), and two CBs we claimed off waivers (D. Williams and T. Hill). So yeah, I think Holmes can find some overlooked talents and Pleasant can coach them up. Having an elite #1 CB who can contain #1 WRs without much help is invaluable. But spending another premium pick to try and grab another CB who is elite brings up a diminishing returns issue. That is especially true when you need talent in the front seven.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Well, I watched the Holmes/Pleasant combination help build us arguably the NFL's best pass defense in 2020 with Jalen Ramsey, a third round safety (JJ), a sixth round safety (Fuller), and two CBs we claimed off waivers (D. Williams and T. Hill). So yeah, I think Holmes can find some overlooked talents and Pleasant can coach them up. Having an elite #1 CB who can contain #1 WRs without much help is invaluable. But spending another premium pick to try and grab another CB who is elite brings up a diminishing returns issue. That is especially true when you need talent in the front seven.

I think it's too easy to say "we'll just save our draft picks and find top talent elsewhere". Isn't that what each of the 32 teams is constantly striving to accomplish? Sometimes teams hit, and sometimes teams miss. It's far from a sure thing.

I guess I haven't heard the arguments for diminishing returns in coverage. But, then again, couldn't we just find top talent in the front seven later in the draft?

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I think it's too easy to say "we'll just save our draft picks and find top talent elsewhere". Isn't that what each of the 32 teams is constantly striving to accomplish? Sometimes teams hit, and sometimes teams miss. It's far from a sure thing.

I guess I haven't heard the arguments for diminishing returns in coverage. But, then again, couldn't we just find top talent in the front seven later in the draft?

Hypothetically, sure. But I know Pleasant's ability to develop talent. And again, I think Okudah is going to be a top CB. Can you say that about other players in the front seven? The point of diminishing returns is that most teams don't have multiple #1 WRs. That means your #2 CB isn't going to be covering the top WR. Having a top tier #1 CB allows for you to rely on that matchup and roll help towards your other defenders to mask some of their weaknesses. Adding a stud to the front seven does more good for the defense than adding another CB with a top pick, if you believe in Okudah like I do.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Hypothetically, sure. But I know Pleasant's ability to develop talent. And again, I think Okudah is going to be a top CB. Can you say that about other players in the front seven? The point of diminishing returns is that most teams don't have multiple #1 WRs. That means your #2 CB isn't going to be covering the top WR. Having a top tier #1 CB allows for you to rely on that matchup and roll help towards your other defenders to mask some of their weaknesses. Adding a stud to the front seven does more good for the defense than adding another CB with a top pick, if you believe in Okudah like I do.

But why can't we just find a stud in the front seven later?

Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I just answered that question.

I just... it's that easy? Take lesser prospects later and they'll be just as good as the prospects that were taken before them? We know this?

If I felt that an elite CB pairing would give this team the best chance to win games in the future, and that player could be had at #7, I'd draft that player at that spot. I wouldn't wait, take a lesser player later and hope that they'd develop in the same way. It seems sort of foolish to me to have that mentality.

Additionally, you've really focused on the concept of the opposing team's "top WR". For teams like the Buccaneers and Chiefs, their "non-top WRs" are guys like Godwin and Watkins. Really good WRs. There are plenty of teams with great WR corps, and I tend to believe that a young, elite CB duo would be a significant benefit to a team.

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I just... it's that easy? Take lesser prospects later and they'll be just as good as the prospects that were taken before them? We know this?

No. I explained this one already. I trust Pleasant to develop players taken later into quality starters. With a legit #1 CB (which I believe Okudah will be), you can roll coverages to help those other CBs play better football.

Quote

 

If I felt that an elite CB pairing would give this team the best chance to win games in the future, and that player could be had at #7, I'd draft that player at that spot. I wouldn't wait, take a lesser player later and hope that they'd develop in the same way. It seems sort of foolish to me to have that mentality.

 

You're not considering the opportunity cost. By taking a #2 CB with a top 10 pick, you aren't taking a top talent at another position.

Quote

Additionally, you've really focused on the concept of the opposing team's "top WR". For teams like the Buccaneers and Chiefs, their "non-top WRs" are guys like Godwin and Watkins. Really good WRs. There are plenty of teams with great WR corps, and I tend to believe that a young, elite CB duo would be a significant benefit to a team.

Okay, but you can give your #2 CB help on Godwin and Watkins. That's the value of a great #1 CB. Of course an elite CB duo is a significant benefit. But you still face an issue of diminishing returns. Is it as significant of a benefit as an elite #1 CB and an elite LB or an elite #1 CB and an elite pass rusher? I don't think it is. And because I believe in Pleasant's ability to develop players, I am content surrounding Okudah with guys who aren't top 15 picks. I don't know the DL or LB Coaches well enough to say the same. (Plus, the Lions have Okudah at CB. Do they have a comparable talent at LB or DT or DE?)

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Okay, but you can give your #2 CB help on Godwin and Watkins.

I think that's it for me. Instead of having to use two players to stop one, you'd only need one, freeing that other player up for another purpose. I don't see how that can go ignored.

We definitely lack talent in the front seven, but guys like Julian Okwara, Jahlani Tavai, John Penisini, Da'Shawn Hand and Austin Bryant were either drafted early or flashed upside. Combined with Trey Flowers and Dan Campbell's interest in Jarrad Davis, it would make sense for the new coaching staff to see what they've got in some of these guys. We also have a bunch of picks that could be spent on the front seven.

If a CB prospect were the best player available at #7, I'd love the pick.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Great CBs go to new systems/teams and fail because they no longer have the pass rush.  A pass rush and not allowing a QB to make plays will have a far greater impact on the DBs and LBs than adding another top CB.  The greatest defenses of all time and today were not about having shut down CBs, they were about getting pressure.  The 49ers dominated by building their line.  The Gianst beat the Patriots twice in the SB by getting to the QB.  The Bucs just dominated the Chiefs by not allowing Mahomes time to pick them apart.  It doesnt matter if we have 2 top 10 CBs, they will both be considered busts if we don't add sufficient pass rush in front of them. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Great CBs go to new systems/teams and fail because they no longer have the pass rush.  A pass rush and not allowing a QB to make plays will have a far greater impact on the DBs and LBs than adding another top CB.  The greatest defenses of all time and today were not about having shut down CBs, they were about getting pressure.  The 49ers dominated by building their line.  The Gianst beat the Patriots twice in the SB by getting to the QB.  The Bucs just dominated the Chiefs by not allowing Mahomes time to pick them apart.  It doesnt matter if we have 2 top 10 CBs, they will both be considered busts if we don't add sufficient pass rush in front of them. 

Interesting, and I used to agree, but I've heard recent analytics-fueled arguments that coverage actually outweighs pass-rush in terms of defensive success.

It also can't be denied that one washes the other: a great pass-rush is fantastic, but, and especially in the modern NFL, quick passing offenses and mobile quarterbacks are increasingly more common. If great coverage can take away options in the passing game, pass-rushers will have more time to get to the quarterback.

Flowers is a legitimate player, and a top pick was spent on J.Okwara. R.Okwara could also be re-signed, although I sort of doubt it. Either way, if a CB was the BPA at #7, and developed into an elite player, this defense would be helped tremendously. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Interesting, and I used to agree, but I've heard recent analytics-fueled arguments that coverage actually outweighs pass-rush in terms of defensive success.

It also can't be denied that one washes the other: a great pass-rush is fantastic, but, and especially in the modern NFL, quick passing offenses and mobile quarterbacks are increasingly more common. If great coverage can take away options in the passing game, pass-rushers will have more time to get to the quarterback.

Flowers is a legitimate player, and a top pick was spent on J.Okwara. R.Okwara could also be re-signed, although I sort of doubt it. Either way, if a CB was the BPA at #7, and developed into an elite player, this defense would be helped tremendously. 

Nine of the top 11 pass rush defenses and 11 of the top 15 made the playoffs.  The three teams not in the top 15 in pass rush were the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Ravens who all have elite offenses/QBs.  We saw what a good pass rush does to Mahomes.  We saw Lamar Jackson struggle to complete passes even as a mobile QB.  Its about forcing quick decisions and although the quick hitter offense has become more common, it ia also easier to teach someone to be in the right spot for 1 second opposed to having to use their athleticism and playmaking abilities to cover for 3 or 4 seconds.  You can cover so many weaknesses by forcing quick decisions and success against it is unsustainable. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Nine of the top 11 pass rush defenses and 11 of the top 15 made the playoffs.

Nine of the top 10 coverage defenses and 10 of the top 15 made the playoffs. I don't think this gets us any closer.

It's all a bit anecdotal, isn't it? And, again, I'm not an analytics guy - I'm not nearly smart enough - but the argument has been made elsewhere. I always believed that pass-rush was the answer, but recent numbers tend to argue otherwise.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Nine of the top 10 coverage defenses and 10 of the top 15 made the playoffs. I don't think this gets us any closer.

It's all a bit anecdotal, isn't it? And, again, I'm not an analytics guy - I'm not nearly smart enough - but the argument has been made elsewhere. I always believed that pass-rush was the answer, but recent numbers tend to argue otherwise.

Per PFF, its 5 of the top 10 that made the playoffs.  And 8 of the top 15.  And zero of the top 3 (unlike the pass rush which was 4 of the top 5) No matter the system, if you allow a QB to sit and pick you apart, they will.  They will find the weakness and exploit it.  It may not be your #1 CB they attack, but they can much easier wait for your #2/3 CB to slip in coverage.  If they dont have time to wait, they have to make quick decisions.  Yes both are important.  No you can't win with one being trash and the other being great.  But having a pass rush will always be more beneficial than DBs.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...