Broncofan Posted March 9, 2021 Author Share Posted March 9, 2021 (edited) 53 minutes ago, SkippyX said: FYI, Williams was already part of the 58.7 cap overage already so its not 69 million. Kwon Alexander saves 13.165 if they cut him (most think he will be gone) The formula for NO is painful future-wise, but do-able: Cut Kwon Alexander & Manny Sanders - 13.15M+ & 4M Restructure to future years - Micheal Thomas (9.6M), Terron Armstead (7.5M), Janoris Jenkins (5.6M) & Andrus Peat (6.75M) Extend & backload everything to 2022+ with 1M salary - Marshawn Lattimore (8.2M) & Ryan Ramczyk (8.85M) Letting Brees retire saves nothing (that money is already credited). 63.7M created. And if they want to create another 9.5M+, they can extend Taysom Hill (I wouldn't for a simple gadget guy, but Payton loves that guy). Enough for the draft, and about 5M for a Jameis multi-year deal (which goes big signing bonus, 1M salary, and say 20M spread out over 4 years, and a 2022 15-20M salary and 2022+ extra bonuses). They'll still have issues for 2022+ - but more room to work with. They'll be the paupers of the NFL cap space for at least 2-3 more years, but they can get things done before March 17th. The path is pretty clear. Edited March 9, 2021 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted March 9, 2021 Author Share Posted March 9, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said: All of these cuts/free agency moves mean that next year every team is going to have like 8 3rd/4th round picks, right? Not really - there's only a fixed number of comp picks. And it's also based on a formula of NET gain/loss. If your team spends big on FA - you're basically not getting comp picks of note. It's only teams that don't sign big $$ FA's, and then lose them, that get the big end of 3rd/end of 4th rd comp picks. Or if you develop minority FO talent as GM/HC and someone else hires them. Edited March 9, 2021 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Thomas and Peat are pretty straightforward restructures. Jenkins is 9.1 unless you extend him. Armstead only has voidable years left. I'm not sure you can just pour a restructure into voidable years (they could extend) In order to extend Lattimore and Ramczyk you will need to pay them a big signing bonus on top of converting their 2021 salaries. We are talking 15-20 million range at least. (Jack Conklin got 15 and Byron Jones 10 but they also got early year salary guarantees) None of this is impossible but its not that easy. Each player also has leverage on them to make the best deal possible. Also these are huge out of pocket expenses. I'm not sure how liquid the Bensons are at the moment with her football and basketball teams without fans in the stands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted March 9, 2021 Author Share Posted March 9, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, SkippyX said: Thomas and Peat are pretty straightforward restructures. Jenkins is 9.1 unless you extend him. Armstead only has voidable years left. I'm not sure you can just pour a restructure into voidable years (they could extend) In order to extend Lattimore and Ramczyk you will need to pay them a big signing bonus on top of converting their 2021 salaries. We are talking 15-20 million range at least. (Jack Conklin got 15 and Byron Jones 10 but they also got early year salary guarantees) None of this is impossible but its not that easy. Each player also has leverage on them to make the best deal possible. Also these are huge out of pocket expenses. I'm not sure how liquid the Bensons are at the moment with her football and basketball teams without fans in the stands. The only real issues though are the extensions - and both Lattimore & Ramczyk are no-brainers to extend. The signing bonuses with an extension can be spread out over 5 years, so even a 25M bonus only accrues a 5M cap hit that year (plus 1M vet min wage - so 6M). Of course, that creates 10M of extra cap space - but that's where Hill's extension likely comes in (I would personally cut him lol, but that's never happening. Not in a million years with Payton as HC). The extensions can then include the 5 years to spread the signing bonus over max length to keep the year 1 hit small - and then add voidable years, so the player basically gets a short-term deal, but the signing bonus is pushed to the extra years in question. Win-win-win for player, team and team cap problems this year. With restructures - the player doesn't lose any $, and they get it up front, right now. There's literally no downside. It's why no player has ever refused a straight restructure, unless the team is asking for a pay cut as part of the restructure. Then it gets sticky. All of the moves I listed are either cuts (which the player has no say in), or an extension (which is very do-able), and then restructures, which are no-brainers for the players to accept instead of salary. NO can get this done and get under the 58.9M with their roster. They will be still be cap-poor vs. the rest of the league for 2022-23 at minimum, though. But they won't be losing players other than by planned cuts with the restructures/extension candidates they have on their roster. Edited March 9, 2021 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 45 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Not really - there's only a fixed number of comp picks. And it's also based on a formula of NET gain/loss. If your team spends big on FA - you're basically not getting comp picks of note. It's only teams that don't sign big $$ FA's, and then lose them, that get the big end of 3rd/end of 4th rd comp picks. Or if you develop minority FO talent as GM/HC and someone else hires them. Given the salary cap, who is spending big this year and cutting important pieces of their team? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted March 9, 2021 Author Share Posted March 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said: Given the salary cap, who is spending big this year and cutting important pieces of their team? Teams like Seattle - who are cutting D guys to get their OL fixed. Keep in mind it's also teams that see players who are just overvalued for that team (or who are going in the wrong direction to keep an expensive older guy, but might spend for youth or a better positional value to invest in), but will still net good contracts from others. Hunter Henry, Kenny Golladay, Joe Thuney, etc. I get your overall point, but this is a very different FA season than most. The cap is driving a lot of moves, but it's also the change in values for some positions, and the opportunity to invest in a different area (LV on D vs. OL, SEA on OL vs. D). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Teams like Seattle - who are cutting D guys to get their OL fixed. Keep in mind it's also teams that see players who are just overvalued for that team (or who are going in the wrong direction to keep an expensive older guy, but might spend for youth or a better positional value to invest in), but will still net good contracts from others. Hunter Henry, Kenny Golladay, Joe Thuney, etc. I get your overall point, but this is a very different FA season than most. The cap is driving a lot of moves, but it's also the change in values for some positions, and the opportunity to invest in a different area (LV on D vs. OL, SEA on OL vs. D). Idk, I just think this year is going to be A LOT of teams cutting important pieces while going bargain shopping, so that comp pick formula will be heavily weighed towards those cuts vs. how they usually are with spending. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turnobili Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said: Idk, I just think this year is going to be A LOT of teams cutting important pieces while going bargain shopping, so that comp pick formula will be heavily weighed towards those cuts vs. how they usually are with spending. you dont get comp picks for players that you cut 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, Turnobili said: you dont get comp picks for players that you cut Damnit, I meant to say teams LETTING players walk. Obviously cuts will also be plentiful as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 9 hours ago, soflbillsfan said: this is definitely a head scratch move. He was average at best I think PFF even rated him 60th in tackles that played last year. to get tagged 14 mil he should be excited for that pay day as they are overpaying for his services if they dont get a long term deal done. Should have traded for Orlando brown with their 2nd 1st rd pick or their 1st 2nd rd pick and pay him would have been an upgrade to what they got in Cam. You don't know that they didn't try to trade for brown. Maybe the asking price was too high. - charles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 3 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said: Idk, I just think this year is going to be A LOT of teams cutting important pieces while going bargain shopping, so that comp pick formula will be heavily weighed towards those cuts vs. how they usually are with spending. To counter this though. A team only gets a comp pick if they lose more players in free agency than they gain. So if several teams start letting alot of vets and such hit the FA market then the market is going to full of players that will be high valued targets. And those same teams who released players will also likely be signing some of them high valued targets as well to use as replacements. So it kind of evens itself out in most cases. Which is how and why the formula is there in the first place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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