2022 NFL Draft Talk

[jch1911]

IRL I think the Texans are in on Bradberry (NYG).  Giants need to move him to open cap space.  He fits Tampa-2 to a T (or CB). Chiefs were interested, but backed off because of cap hit and their need to sign other players.

I think it comes down to Colts and Texans to acquire him.

I trust Cesario to be creative (e.g. 6th this year and conditional pick next year based on playing time that could be as high as a 4th or as low as 6th).

[ET80]

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

Would you rather take him at #3 and potentially miss on one of the top tier pass rushers or get a top tier pass rusher and then settle for one of the other CBs either at #13 or at the top of the 2nd though given Lovie's ability to develop CBs.

It depends on the pass rusher. I want NOTHING to do with Travon Walker, he feels like a 34 edge who doesn't really create pressure or plays on his own - rather, he cleans up what first wave defenders can't clean up. His bust potential is second only to Malik Willis, IMO.

If it's Thibs or Hutch, I'm more interested in going this direction - but I doubt Hutch makes it past two. If Jacksonville goes T, then pass rusher becomes the #1 position, IMO - you can hide a bad secondary with a strong pass rush, and Thibs/Hutch bring that. Hutch is more complete as a player, Thibs is the better athlete; However, both profile as long term guys, IMO.

[Pastor Dillon]

On 4/11/2022 at 9:43 PM, LORK88 said:

Horn and Surtain certainly looked great last year. 

Horn only played 3 games last year. 
surtain was solid but I wouldn’t call him great. 

[lumberjackchris]

The Bills scare me, they’re definitely in a spot to take a RB in the 1st

[ET80]

34 minutes ago, lumberjackchris said:

The Bills scare me, they’re definitely in a spot to take a RB in the 1st

I think people are starting to see the ROI in RBs in the first is really poor. Even the 5th year option overpays them for their actual impact.

Seriously - who is the last top RB taken in the first? Henry, Cook, Chubb, Kamara were 2nd or 3rd round guys. Christian McCaffrey is injury prone, but I guess he slots into that 5 spot. 

The Bills might look into Hall in the 1st, but history is sort of showing us it's a waste of a draft pick longer term.

Semi related:

This sort of illustrates what I've been saying on an OL at 3 - the best teams in football don't throw tons of draft capital at OL, let alone top 5 assets. 

One OL doesn't suddenly turn this unit around. If they go OL at 3, it has to be a full commitment to the other spots that need replacement (specifically C and RG, presumably). If you're picking Ickey or Neal at 3, Linderbaum at 13 absolutely needs to be the pick, and then one of your next three picks needs to fill in RG (perhaps Jamaree Salyer in the 3rd). THEN, you might see results that you're aiming for (assuming all three make immediate impacts - it's not guaranteed they'd even beat out the incumbent at this time, TBH).

Drafting Ickey or Neal does nothing short term. Might do something long term, but that's contingent on fixing EVERYTHING, not just 33.3% of the issue. The OL will still be bad, you're not really helping Davis Mills in y2 by drafting either T.

[LORK88]

1 hour ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Horn only played 3 games last year. 
surtain was solid but I wouldn’t call him great. 

And in those 3 games, he allowed 1 catch for 8 yards while also picking off a pass. After week 7, Surtain only allowed more than 60 yards receiving once the rest of the season while also ranking top 25. 

[Texansfan713]

56 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I think people are starting to see the ROI in RBs in the first is really poor. Even the 5th year option overpays them for their actual impact.

Seriously - who is the last top RB taken in the first? Henry, Cook, Chubb, Kamara were 2nd or 3rd round guys. Christian McCaffrey is injury prone, but I guess he slots into that 5 spot. 

The Bills might look into Hall in the 1st, but history is sort of showing us it's a waste of a draft pick longer term.

Semi related:

This sort of illustrates what I've been saying on an OL at 3 - the best teams in football don't throw tons of draft capital at OL, let alone top 5 assets. 

One OL doesn't suddenly turn this unit around. If they go OL at 3, it has to be a full commitment to the other spots that need replacement (specifically C and RG, presumably). If you're picking Ickey or Neal at 3, Linderbaum at 13 absolutely needs to be the pick, and then one of your next three picks needs to fill in RG (perhaps Jamaree Salyer in the 3rd). THEN, you might see results that you're aiming for (assuming all three make immediate impacts - it's not guaranteed they'd even beat out the incumbent at this time, TBH).

Drafting Ickey or Neal does nothing short term. Might do something long term, but that's contingent on fixing EVERYTHING, not just 33.3% of the issue. The OL will still be bad, you're not really helping Davis Mills in y2 by drafting either T.

The Texans are in a long term rebuild.  If you have a chance to take an elite OL'man high you have to take him.  No guarantee the Texans will be in position to select one early in the future. 

[jch1911]

52 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I think people are starting to see the ROI in RBs in the first is really poor. Even the 5th year option overpays them for their actual impact.

Seriously - who is the last top RB taken in the first? Henry, Cook, Chubb, Kamara were 2nd or 3rd round guys. Christian McCaffrey is injury prone, but I guess he slots into that 5 spot. 

The Bills might look into Hall in the 1st, but history is sort of showing us it's a waste of a draft pick longer term.

Semi related:

This sort of illustrates what I've been saying on an OL at 3 - the best teams in football don't throw tons of draft capital at OL, let alone top 5 assets. 

One OL doesn't suddenly turn this unit around. If they go OL at 3, it has to be a full commitment to the other spots that need replacement (specifically C and RG, presumably). If you're picking Ickey or Neal at 3, Linderbaum at 13 absolutely needs to be the pick, and then one of your next three picks needs to fill in RG (perhaps Jamaree Salyer in the 3rd). THEN, you might see results that you're aiming for (assuming all three make immediate impacts - it's not guaranteed they'd even beat out the incumbent at this time, TBH).

Drafting Ickey or Neal does nothing short term. Might do something long term, but that's contingent on fixing EVERYTHING, not just 33.3% of the issue. The OL will still be bad, you're not really helping Davis Mills in y2 by drafting either T.

I don't even thing the OL will be bad - provided they get quality coaching (maybe), have an OC with a plan / know what they are doing (looks like), a decent RB behind them (TBD), and a decisive QB (looks like).  Isn't that every OL though? Touche  

Once again, I think Tunsil - Scharping - Britt - Cann - Howard can be a decent to above average OL.  Let them get their chemistry together and a RB who can plant & zoom.  Mid-to-late rounds get IOL to learn behind Britt & Cann.  Also, need to make a call about Scharping for the future.

[ET80]

6 minutes ago, jch1911 said:

Once again, I think Tunsil - Scharping - Britt - Cann - Howard can be a decent to above average OL.  Let them get their chemistry together and a RB who can plant & zoom.  Mid-to-late rounds get IOL to learn behind Britt & Cann.  Also, need to make a call about Scharping for the future.

Agree 1,000% on this. I think the OL needs improvement, but the five guys slated could improve that with a scheme that fits their skills. I personally want competition along the IOL - Scharping, Cann and Britt aren't guaranteed, they need to actually win their jobs - but that's not something you leverage 1.3 to do. (1.13? Maybe).

We've always heard it's a copycat league - the cats to copy don't burn FRPs on OL that often.

[ET80]

45 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said:

The Texans are in a long term rebuild.  If you have a chance to take an elite OL'man high you have to take him.  No guarantee the Texans will be in position to select one early in the future. 

But you're missing the point - successful teams don't take one early EVER. Closest thing to it was Wirfs at 13 to TB.

Name me the last highly drafted OL on a top 5 team. You're probably looking at Ronnie Staley as your best example (who himself was outplayed by 3rd round pick Orlando Brown Jr).

[PAtexansFAN_99]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

But you're missing the point - successful teams don't take one early EVER. 

Name me the last highly drafted OL on a top 5 team. You're not going to find one.

Eric Fisher

[ET80]

3 minutes ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

Eric Fisher

I would hardly qualify Fisher as good. KC gave up a lot to get Orlando Brown Jr, just to avoid Fisher at LT again. He was part of the problem with that KC OL. He wasn't a bust, but definitely didn't live up to a 1.1 pedigree.

Furthermore, look at the next best T taken that year - LT Luke Joeckel, who was pretty much a bust. 

Drafting one that high rarely yields the results you want, because that's only 1/5 the OL is improved.

[PAtexansFAN_99]

12 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Drafting one that high rarely yields the results you want, because that's only 1/5 the OL is improved.

You can only draft one human at a time. You can only improve 1/4 of the DL (which is approximately 1/3 of the total defense), or 1/4-1/5 of the secondary with 1 pick. Also, Jake Long, Quenton Nelson, Mike McGlinchey, Jack Conklin..

If Quenton Nelson were in this class, and available at 3 there'd be no question what we ought to do. 

We need a left guard. Our tackles are good enough, we should focus on improving elsewhere (there's no guard worth 1.3, unless the plan is to start Evan Neal or Ickey at LG and move him to LT once Tunsil's contract is over/the next time Tunsil breaks a nail). 

Honestly I don't care what other teams have done. This team needs to figure out the running game. IMMEDIATELY. I can't watch another season like that. Evan Neal looks like a stud LT to me too. LT is a premier position. If nothing else, we can leverage having a stud LT on a rookie contract to improve the team in free agency down the line. 

If not OL, I'm dead set on Travon Walker at this point. I know you don't like him bc you see him as a 3-4 guy, but I don't know many 3-4 LBs that can play 3-tech in passing situations. Also, he can just cover the flats sometimes, yea. I don't think of that as a downside. Dude is an absolute unicorn. 

 

[lumberjackchris]

Give me a CB room with Sauce/Stingley, Nelson, Lonnie, and King…..I can roll with that.

[ET80]

1 hour ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

Also, Jake Long, Quenton Nelson, Mike McGlinchey, Jack Conklin..

None of those teams turned out to be good, so that sort of proves my point. 

1 hour ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

If Quenton Nelson were in this class, and available at 3 there'd be no question what we ought to do. 

But there is no Quentin Nelson in this draft, so it's a moot point (and what exactly have the Colts accomplished in that time?)

1 hour ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

We need a left guard. Our tackles are good enough, we should focus on improving elsewhere (there's no guard worth 1.3, unless the plan is to start Evan Neal or Ickey at LG and move him to LT once Tunsil's contract is over/the next time Tunsil breaks a nail). 

And I agree with this - what I DON'T agree with is assuming that you can slide in a T to play G and get good results. Would you draft Chris Olaive to play RB? How about Devin Lloyd to play S? No, you wouldn't - because Olaive isn't a RB, Lloyd isn't a S.

The responsibilities of a T and G are pretty different (especially in run blocking - sealing the edge is drastically different than creating a hole inside or creating a surge up the gut). Part of the reason our run game was so bad was because we had a RT (who could set the edge well) driving, pulling and trapping at LG (tasks he's not suited for).

1 hour ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

Honestly I don't care what other teams have done.

Other teams WIN. Best to replicate that instead of whatever the hell we've been doing.

The biggest issue this franchise has ever had? They overcomplicate things by doing crazy things, then sit back and wonder why said crazy thing didn't work.

For once - see how successful franchises operate and follow that. 

1 hour ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

This team needs to figure out the running game. IMMEDIATELY.

Step 1: Draft a G, not a T. Find someone who can fill that specific need, not shoehorn in a guy because he looks the part. Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green need to be the thoughts here because they are actual OGs with extensive experience at the position (not just a 4-6 game stint as a freshman).

1 hour ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

f not OL, I'm dead set on Travon Walker at this point. I know you don't like him bc you see him as a 3-4 guy, but I don't know many 3-4 LBs that can play 3-tech in passing situations. Also, he can just cover the flats sometimes, yea. I don't think of that as a downside. Dude is an absolute unicorn. 

I see a few things I don't like about Walker - any plays I see him involved with, it's usually cleaning up after the first wave creates pressure or clogs up a running play. He doesn't really pursue a play, he lets the play come to him (lacks aggression and instinctiveness past the LOS).

That's a fine trait to have I guess - stay in your assigned lane and don't let anything big happen on your side of the ball, read and react - I just don't see it as a special trait that you'd take in the top 5. I'd actually be OK with Walker at 1.13; Guys who can do the dirty work are necessary to any defense. Drafting him at 1.3 just seems like a disappointment waiting to happen, someone who is viewed as a good player, but who doesn't live up to such a high draft pick - if a team is grabbing an edge at 1.3, they need to be a transformative presence, not just a cleanup guy who maintains gap discipline.

That's just how I see it.