Fantasy Football 2021

[Sllim Pickens]

I was just looking at the NFL drafts and RBs, and holy cow I didn't realize how amazing the 2017 draft was for RB's.  McCaffery, Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, James Connor, Marlon Mack, Tarick Cohen, Jamaal Williams, and Chris Carson all from the same draft.  Thats the current #1, 2 and 3-5 fantasy RB along with the #12, 16, and 24 RBs with a couple others who have had good years previously.  In comparison, 2016 only had Zeke and Henry, with Drake and Howard as honorable mentions.  2018 had Barkley, Chubb, and Edmonds. 2019 has depth but nobody near the top.  

[Sllim Pickens]

2 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

I'm not 'expecting' anything, though it's worth noting that Henderson is literally already hurt. But I'm looking at a situation where a team just gave up assets for a player who has what actually looks like a pretty viable path towards a good workload in a good offense. That's really it. Henderson is being talked up as some established asset when the reality is that RB room is wide open, and if I can get in on the ground floor for cheap I'm gonna take that ride. This is the time of year when every rookie RB is obviously poised for a breakout so I get the excitement with Carter but it's just weird how quickly these narratives take hold where someone all of a sudden becomes so much more of a sure thing than he really is. 

As I said, neither are sure things, but the odds based on history, the 1st round failure doesn't figure it out elsewhere.  The odds of a 4th round rookie dominating are really small as well but still higher.  And maybe the Rams have a better offense, not particularly for RBs though.  I'll take the run heavy system with a very good O Line with the pass catching ability Carter has being able to find snaps opposed to the first round bust.  And you mention the Rams spent assets to get Michel, well the Jets spent more to get Carter so that point is moot.  I think you are looking at the shiny new transaction and wanting to be the first in on him but it will end up like Bell and other backs that have failed when moving teams during the season.  There is about an 80% chance neither have value later in the year, but if I have to bet on one or the other, I would easily take the upside play vs the we already know he isn't that good play. 

[Dr LBC]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

As I said, neither are sure things, but the odds based on history, the 1st round failure doesn't figure it out elsewhere.  The odds of a 4th round rookie dominating are really small as well but still higher.  And maybe the Rams have a better offense, not particularly for RBs though.  I'll take the run heavy system with a very good O Line with the pass catching ability Carter has being able to find snaps opposed to the first round bust.  And you mention the Rams spent assets to get Michel, well the Jets spent more to get Carter so that point is moot.  I think you are looking at the shiny new transaction and wanting to be the first in on him but it will end up like Bell and other backs that have failed when moving teams during the season.  There is about an 80% chance neither have value later in the year, but if I have to bet on one or the other, I would easily take the upside play vs the we already know he isn't that good play. 

Worth pointing out, in the who was I forced to replace Etienne with in my standard-scoring league where I was weighing Gio Bernard and Xavier Jones, I rolled the dice a bit and picked up Michel.  Is he a huge upside pick?  No.  But Malcolm Brown was a productive source of fantasy points last year prior to Akers late season surge when he returned from his rookie injury, I've heard McVay allude not-so-indirectly in pressers to Henderson being on a pitch-count even before he injured his thumb, so the role that Malcolm Brown had in the offense last season is still very much alive and Sony can definitely occupy that.  And that included, yet to be seen but I won't be surprised if that continues to include, a lot of the goal-line duties.  Possible that Funk gets some use in that capacity, but Funk's pass-blocking is woeful right now and that has typically been something that's caused McVay to ice a RB out of non-ST touches, especially from rookies (it kept Henderson from seeing much in his rookie season).  Sony's ceiling is largely capped as long as Henderson is dressing for games, but he should have a floor of 8-12 touches per game and, unless Henderson or Jones show something substantial, probably comes close to heading the committee in goal-to-go/short-yardage situations.

That said, I'd take Carter all day because I feel like on a season-long subset, he's got the clearest path to putting up a likely larger output.

Edited August 26, 2021 by Dr LBC

[Hunter2_1]

Playing 0.5 PPR for first time. Usually do 1 PPR. Should this change draft strategy? 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Playing 0.5 PPR for first time. Usually do 1 PPR. Should this change draft strategy? 

It changes it some as it lessens the value of guys like Ekeler/Swift and increases that of Jonathan Taylor/Nick Chubb

Its easier to really see the difference if you have projections down somewhere. In a full pt PPR league, Kamara seems to usually go #3 whereas in Non-PPR and sometimes half Henry will go before just because that 0.5 PPR makes a huge difference when counting 80 or so catches

[Hunter2_1]

8 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

It changes it some as it lessens the value of guys like Ekeler/Swift and increases that of Jonathan Taylor/Nick Chubb

Its easier to really see the difference if you have projections down somewhere. In a full pt PPR league, Kamara seems to usually go #3 whereas in Non-PPR and sometimes half Henry will go before just because that 0.5 PPR makes a huge difference when counting 80 or so catches

My man 

[NcFinest9erFan]

Winson was just name the starter in NO. I am feeling froggy and think I may just wait till the very end of my draft to pick him? I was also looking at Hurts and Stafford around R7-9.

[AFF]

4 hours ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

Winson was just name the starter in NO. I am feeling froggy and think I may just wait till the very end of my draft to pick him? I was also looking at Hurts and Stafford around R7-9.

Still going to lose some GL work to Hill...caps his upside a little bit.

I would probably prefer him in 2 QB leagues or superflex.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

4 hours ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

Winson was just name the starter in NO. I am feeling froggy and think I may just wait till the very end of my draft to pick him? I was also looking at Hurts and Stafford around R7-9.

yea I just dont think Hill goes away so the TD potential is probably capped

[Dr LBC]

6 hours ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

Winson was just name the starter in NO. I am feeling froggy and think I may just wait till the very end of my draft to pick him? I was also looking at Hurts and Stafford around R7-9.

I actually don't hate (assuming you've go the bench slots to accommodate) the idea of drafting both Saints QB's if you're going to punt to a way late QB option.  There's a good shot that unless Jameis just takes the job and runs away with it with early season performances that he and Taysom flipflop the job at least once back and forth this season.  And Taysom is kind of a Monet in from fantasy production: If you don't get all up in his business watching how it was done, he's going to give you the kind of floor with his legs that he's probably still finishing as a Top 12 QB most any week he get the start for the Saints.

[Sad People]

Have the Number 2 pick in 2 drafts would yall draft DC33 in both drafts or go for DC33 in one and AK41 in the other? Live and die by drafting the same player or protect yourself by drafting 2 different people and expose yourself potentially to more injuries and what not by diversifying your draft.

Also Thinking about maybe trading down to the 5-6th pick and go the 0 RB strategy and pound WRs for 4-5 rounds maybe grab Kelce in the first then go hard for WRs, I do have Davante Adams in one league already and thats who I would target if I went the 0 RB strategy.

Edited August 29, 2021 by mattyice0401

[Forge]

On 8/26/2021 at 5:00 PM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

It changes it some as it lessens the value of guys like Ekeler/Swift and increases that of Jonathan Taylor/Nick Chubb

Its easier to really see the difference if you have projections down somewhere. In a full pt PPR league, Kamara seems to usually go #3 whereas in Non-PPR and sometimes half Henry will go before just because that 0.5 PPR makes a huge difference when counting 80 or so catches

I'd add that it also messes with receivers just a bit. A guy like JJSS can drop down, while a low volume, high yards per reception guy becomes a tick more valuable

[Forge]

49 minutes ago, mattyice0401 said:

Have the Number 2 pick in 2 drafts would yall draft DC33 in both drafts or go for DC33 in one and AK41 in the other? Live and die by drafting the same player or protect yourself by drafting 2 different people and expose yourself potentially to more injuries and what not by diversifying your draft.

Also Thinking about maybe trading down to the 5-6th pick and go the 0 RB strategy and pound WRs for 4-5 rounds maybe grab Kelce in the first then go hard for WRs, I do have Davante Adams in one league already and thats who I would target if I went the 0 RB strategy.

Cook is definitely my hard coded #2OA in fantasy, and Kamara isn't not even my consistent #3, so for me it's Cook in both quite easily. 

Depends on the league set up for 0 RB. Needs to be at least a 3 WR league, full PPR, should be at least 12 teams, etc etc. I'm not a huge proponent of 0RB...prefer Anchor RB, especially if you have a pick in the top 5 - 6. If you're picking in the bottom of the round, I can see the appeal, but honestly, the ideal of potentially grabbing a combo of Ekeler / Chubb or something along those lines is also very appealing (I'm very bullish on Ekeler this year).

[Sad People]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

Cook is definitely my hard coded #2OA in fantasy, and Kamara isn't not even my consistent #3, so for me it's Cook in both quite easily. 

Depends on the league set up for 0 RB. Needs to be at least a 3 WR league, full PPR, should be at least 12 teams, etc etc. I'm not a huge proponent of 0RB...prefer Anchor RB, especially if you have a pick in the top 5 - 6. If you're picking in the bottom of the round, I can see the appeal, but honestly, the ideal of potentially grabbing a combo of Ekeler / Chubb or something along those lines is also very appealing (I'm very bullish on Ekeler this year).

Its a 2 RB, 2 WR and a FLEX, FLEX can be either WR, RB or TE.

[Forge]

35 minutes ago, mattyice0401 said:

Its a 2 RB, 2 WR and a FLEX, FLEX can be either WR, RB or TE.

This can basically serve as a 3 wr league, but honestly I don't know that I'd like a 0 RB structure in that set up (even less if this is a 10 team league). The thing is that due to positional value, post draft receivers carry so much less weight than running backs, especially in smaller leagues 

Like, lets say that you're in this league and went RB / RB with your first two picks. This is a very realistic projection for your receiver group looks like if you focused on that over the next 5 rounds (for a 12 team league): 

Round 3 - AJ Brown (adp 25 on espn drafts), Justin Jefferson (26), Keenan Allen (29), Allen Robinson (34) 

Round 4 - CeeDee Lamb (need a little help - adp 35, but certainly not unreasonable he's there at the start of round 4), Robert Woods (40), Adam Thielen (46)

Round 5 - Julio (50), Cooper Kupp (52)

Round 6 - DJ Moore (61), Aiyuk (63), Odell (73)

And immediately following that you have guys like Robbie Anderson (better value than DJ Moore imo), Tee Higgins (high pace of play on a bad team that will throw a lot), and Jerry Jeudy. You can even add in another position group with one of those 4 picks and end up with a really good receiver group with lots of upside. 

There's just no value to going 0 RB unless there is something wonky about the league (you could justify it if it is superflex and you went QB / QB for example)

But if you go 0 RB it's going to make fixing issues post draft so much more difficult. What are you trading? Teams that are sitting on a receiver group of Jefferson / Julio / DJ Moore are probably unlikely to have high trade values on a guy like Adams if you try to move him for a good RB. They are going to look at their receivers and be like, "nah, I feel okay about these guys". So then you have to make it a bigger trade, more convoluted, etc. 

0 RB is probably my least favorite strategy without a very specific set up