Ozzy Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 hour ago, twslhs20 said: WR isn't a waste if it'd BPA. The the bust percentage is like 28% though. What is the bust percentage for all the other positions? I assume close to that same percentage? Hard to get a bust percentage I would think because bust is all up to who you ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twslhs20 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, Ozzy said: What is the bust percentage for all the other positions? I assume close to that same percentage? Hard to get a bust percentage I would think because bust is all up to who you ask. That I don't know. I read an article on WRs a couple years back. It may have changes some with variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marshpit23 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, Ozzy said: What is the bust percentage for all the other positions? I assume close to that same percentage? Hard to get a bust percentage I would think because bust is all up to who you ask. Bust rates among first-round picks, 25-year sample Position Drafted Busts Bust rate RB 96 45 46.9% QB 57 23 40.4% DL 170 60 35.3% WR 99 30 30.3% CB 91 24 26.4% G 32 7 21.9% LB 87 19 21.8% TE 28 6 21.4% OT 84 16 19.0% S 35 5 14.3% C 12 1 8.3% Pro-Football-Reference.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marshpit23 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 minute ago, marshpit23 said: Bust rates among first-round picks, 25-year sample Position Drafted Busts Bust rate RB 96 45 46.9% QB 57 23 40.4% DL 170 60 35.3% WR 99 30 30.3% CB 91 24 26.4% G 32 7 21.9% LB 87 19 21.8% TE 28 6 21.4% OT 84 16 19.0% S 35 5 14.3% C 12 1 8.3% Pro-Football-Reference.com Criteria: But what about avoiding the disaster cases? We also tallied up the busts by finding non-Pro Bowl players who started fewer than 50 games in their careers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marshpit23 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 minute ago, marshpit23 said: Criteria: But what about avoiding the disaster cases? We also tallied up the busts by finding non-Pro Bowl players who started fewer than 50 games in their careers. Also…. Pro Bowl/bust gaps among first-round picks, 25-year sample Position Pro Bowl rate Bust rate Pro Bowl/bust difference S 51.4% 14.3% 37.1% C 41.7% 8.3% 33.3% TE 46.4% 21.4% 25.0% LB 42.5% 21.8% 20.7% G 40.6% 21.9% 18.8% OT 36.9% 19.0% 17.9% CB 38.5% 26.4% 12.1% QB 42.1% 40.4% 1.8% WR 30.3% 30.3% 0.0% DL 30.6% 35.3% -4.7% RB 41.7% 46.9% -5.2% Pro-Football-Reference.com So it seems as though if you're really confident in a first-round safety, tight end, interior offensive lineman or linebacker, there's a very good chance that the pick will pan out. https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft.amp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 34 minutes ago, marshpit23 said: Also…. Pro Bowl/bust gaps among first-round picks, 25-year sample Position Pro Bowl rate Bust rate Pro Bowl/bust difference S 51.4% 14.3% 37.1% C 41.7% 8.3% 33.3% TE 46.4% 21.4% 25.0% LB 42.5% 21.8% 20.7% G 40.6% 21.9% 18.8% OT 36.9% 19.0% 17.9% CB 38.5% 26.4% 12.1% QB 42.1% 40.4% 1.8% WR 30.3% 30.3% 0.0% DL 30.6% 35.3% -4.7% RB 41.7% 46.9% -5.2% Pro-Football-Reference.com So it seems as though if you're really confident in a first-round safety, tight end, interior offensive lineman or linebacker, there's a very good chance that the pick will pan out. https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft.amp.html It's funny because Safety, iOL and LB are some of the least valuable positions and shouldn't be drafted in the first round. These positions are way less demanding, easier to play and less impactful on which team wins the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 36 minutes ago, marshpit23 said: Bust rates among first-round picks, 25-year sample Position Drafted Busts Bust rate RB 96 45 46.9% QB 57 23 40.4% DL 170 60 35.3% WR 99 30 30.3% CB 91 24 26.4% G 32 7 21.9% LB 87 19 21.8% TE 28 6 21.4% OT 84 16 19.0% S 35 5 14.3% C 12 1 8.3% Pro-Football-Reference.com Thanks for the info! Nice find. Interesting this is how it lays out in terms of players drafted 1st round in 25 years? 170 DL 99 WR 96 RB 91 CB 87 LB 84 OT 57 QB 35 S 32 G 28 TE 12 C Shocking RB is at 96 players especially when lately it is not rare that no RBs are drafted in the 1st round. Also is skewed based on the number, more guys drafted at that position more likely there will be a high bust percentage. Wish it would have broke down to DT, DE, LT, RT, ILB, OLB but that might be asked a bit much but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Rookie wage scale changes the game when looking at drafting. The amount of cap room saved on premium positioned players playing well should remove any non-premium positions from your draft board. CB / EDGE / WR only in the first round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battle2heaven Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 3 hours ago, marshpit23 said: Bust rates among first-round picks, 25-year sample Position Drafted Busts Bust rate RB 96 45 46.9% QB 57 23 40.4% DL 170 60 35.3% WR 99 30 30.3% CB 91 24 26.4% G 32 7 21.9% LB 87 19 21.8% TE 28 6 21.4% OT 84 16 19.0% S 35 5 14.3% C 12 1 8.3% Pro-Football-Reference.com Center…Garrett Bradbury lol /cries 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AP_allday2869 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 hour ago, battle2heaven said: Center…Garrett Bradbury lol /cries Of course we have the only bust drafted at center in the last 25 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted April 11, 2022 Author Share Posted April 11, 2022 (edited) It depends upon the definition of "bust"...last I checked, Bradbury is still a starting center going into his 4th year. He may have underperformed somewhat, but I'm not sure I could categorize him as a bust. Billy Price is a bust and he was drafted the year before Bradbury...and he's an unsigned free agent after being traded in his 4th year. Edited April 11, 2022 by swede700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battle2heaven Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, swede700 said: It depends upon the definition of "bust"...last I checked, Bradbury is still a starting center going into his 4th year. He may have underperformed somewhat, but I'm not sure I could categorize him as a bust. Billy Price is a bust and he was drafted the year before Bradbury...and he's an unsigned free agent after being traded in his 4th year. Bradbury is well on his way to being a bust if he doesn't turn it around this year. His run blocking is good, but man, he cannot anchor for the life of him. That pressure straight up the middle is a drive killer. But who knows, Rams Brian Allen was putrid in his career until his 4th year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SemperFeist Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, swede700 said: It depends upon the definition of "bust"...last I checked, Bradbury is still a starting center going into his 4th year. He may have underperformed somewhat, but I'm not sure I could categorize him as a bust. Billy Price is a bust and he was drafted the year before Bradbury...and he's an unsigned free agent after being traded in his 4th year. I would classify any 1st round pick that doesn’t sign a second contract with the team that drafted him as a bust. We’ll see where Bradbury lands on that after this year, but he’s trending in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battle2heaven Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, SemperFeist said: I would classify any 1st round pick that doesn’t sign a second contract with the team that drafted him as a bust. We’ll see where Bradbury lands on that after this year, but he’s trending in the wrong direction. Meh, Trae Waynes wasn't a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 I had a dream that the Vikings traded up to like 4 to draft that NT. Hopefully KAM is smarter than my subconscious GM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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