Nacho Simulation Football League (Season 22 - Taco Bowl XXII POSTED!)

[EaglesPeteC]

Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

No, absolutely... I pretty much agree.

I just think the value here is tough to fully understand. Some players that get elite stats are disregarded by the experienced owners, while stats are the sole basis used to gauge the impact of other positions.

So... which is it? Do we look at stats (and stats alone) and conclude that TEs lack value, or do we conclude that certain players are more important than others based on everything but stats?

I think offensive skill players are easier to gauge impact from stats than offensive line and defensive skill players. You can look at a TE stats and see how many catches, yards and TD's they get and how that helps your team. Defense and O-lineman there are more factors to consider so it is a tougher eval. 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

1 minute ago, EaglesPeteC said:

I think offensive skill players are easier to gauge impact from stats than offensive line and defensive skill players. You can look at a TE stats and see how many catches, yards and TD's they get and how that helps your team. Defense and O-lineman there are more factors to consider so it is a tougher eval. 

Although I somewhat agree, couldn't there/shouldn't there be more to TEs than catches, yards and TDs?

[Karnage84]

8 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

 

 

I actually agree on both counts

My counterargument in this case is that the gap between "elite" LB and "good" LB is more narrow than "elite" WR to "good" WR. And at least as far as stats go - inconsistent

Darius Leonard was elite for me... until he wasn't. Then I got Darius Leonard type of stats out of Kenneth Murray

Idk, I'm not telling you your wrong, I just don't share your opinions

Then again, Nacho has trolled me for my opinions on LB, so who the eff knows

I know that this is an inexact science/imperfect system and some (Pete) has essentially said this is meaningless... BUT...

I am taking the approach when it comes to "Coverage" that the player who made the tackle is held responsible for the yardage. Maybe the CB1 is always up against the WR1 and this is a bogus way to look at things. However, with this approach even if the guy was not directly responsible, it will all get washed out as other guys will get dinged for plays they aren't responsible for either. 

I'm tracking Completions/Total Attempts Against (Completions + Incompletions). I'm tracking yards made on individual plays. A guy that is making 85 tackles that are all 25 yards down field is not as effective as a guy making 45 tackles 5 yards down the field. In our stats, the 85 tackle guy is going to be viewed as the far superior player. We aren't factoring in impact on other players around them. Really good players could result in plays being directed to other players. 

There are gaps in how we're measuring things, or at least it seems that way. I'm going to put on my tin foil hat and eagerly await the games today. 

[EaglesPeteC]

Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Although I somewhat agree, couldn't there/shouldn't there be more to TEs than catches, yards and TDs?

I think with any position there is more than just the stats but I think you get (pulling numbers out of my bum here) 85% of the picture with WR, TE, QB, RB from stats and like 50% of the picture with stats from OL and most defenders. 

 

In general on defense you have to gauge what is more important to you. Holding a team down yardage wise or making splash plays like sacks, stuffs and turnovers

[Karnage84]

6 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said:

I think offensive skill players are easier to gauge impact from stats than offensive line and defensive skill players. You can look at a TE stats and see how many catches, yards and TD's they get and how that helps your team. Defense and O-lineman there are more factors to consider so it is a tougher eval. 

Agreed - 100%. 

Which is why my focus has been trying to fill in some of the gaps of understanding (maybe just my own) on what constitutes a good/bad play or player. 

When I had Sneed an Poyer as my Safeties, they were racking up a ton of tackles and some coverage's. My team also was like the #2 team in passing yards against. Yet my defensive MVP was Byron Murphy. To my point - making a tackle 25 yards down the field to save a TD is somewhat of a positive but it's not as good as knocking the ball down. 

Again - this could all just be newbie nonsense and I'll look back on my year 1 in great regret (like @EaglesPeteC's mom).

[Tk3]

24 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

No, absolutely... I pretty much agree.

I just think the value here is tough to fully understand. Some players that get elite stats are disregarded by the experienced owners, while stats are the sole basis used to gauge the impact of other positions.

So... which is it? Do we look at stats (and stats alone) and conclude that TEs lack value, or do we conclude that certain players are more important than others based on everything but stats?

1. We conclude that TEs and LBs lack value
2. We talk about it often in order to depress the draft value of them
3. We draft the elite ones ourselves
4. Profit

Thanks for playing!

[Malfatron]

MER after week 8

Chip Favorites:

1. RC Trash Pandas 6-2 (87.97) (+0)

2. Indianapolis Predators 5-3 (75.82) (+3)

3. Hanoi Viet Kongs 7-1 (75.49) (-1)

 

Strong Contenders:

4. Egypt Starfalls 5-3 (48.9) (-1)

5. Providence Patricias 4-4 (45.41) (+6)

6. Little Rock Uni Royals 5-3 (36.87) (+0)

7. Norway Knights 5-3 (24.56) (+0)

8. SA Woolly Mammoths 4-4 (23.04) (+0)

9. Phoenix Rattlers 4-4 (23.01) (-6)

10. Nassau Sea Wolves 6-2 (19.16) (-1)

 

Longshots:

11. Reykjavík Direwolves 5-3 (11.91) (+1)

12. Rio de Janeiro Pirates 3-5 (7.74) (-1)

13. Scranton Papermakers 4-4 (5.54) (+1)

14. Anchorage Moose 4-4 (-9.87) (-1)

15. Freiburg Venom 4-4 (-11.46) (+0)

 

one-in-a-million chance:

16. Chicago Fire 3-5 (-48.84) (+0)

17. Tacoma Thunder 2-6 (-75.89) (+1)

 

Goonies didnt say die, but you did:

18. Antarctica Poppers 1-7 (-90.9) (-1)

 

Tank alert: 

19. Rich Flying Squirrels 2-6 (-115.98) (0)

20. Lanc Fighting Amish 1-7 (-133.56) (0)

[Tk3]

1 minute ago, Malfatron said:

MER after week 8

Chip Favorites:

1. RC Trash Pandas 6-2 (87.97) (+0)

2. Indianapolis Predators 5-3 (75.82) (+3)

3. Hanoi Viet Kongs 7-1 (75.49) (-1)

 

Strong Contenders:

4. Egypt Starfalls 5-3 (48.9) (-1)

5. Providence Patricias 4-4 (45.41) (+6)

6. Little Rock Uni Royals 5-3 (36.87) (+0)

7. Norway Knights 5-3 (24.56) (+0)

8. SA Woolly Mammoths 4-4 (23.04) (+0)

9. Phoenix Rattlers 4-4 (23.01) (-6)

10. Nassau Sea Wolves 6-2 (19.16) (-1)

 

Longshots:

11. Reykjavík Direwolves 5-3 (11.91) (+1)

12. Rio de Janeiro Pirates 3-5 (7.74) (-1)

13. Scranton Papermakers 4-4 (5.54) (+1)

14. Anchorage Moose 4-4 (-9.87) (-1)

15. Freiburg Venom 4-4 (-11.46) (+0)

 

one-in-a-million chance:

16. Chicago Fire 3-5 (-48.84) (+0)

17. Tacoma Thunder 2-6 (-75.89) (+1)

 

Goonies didnt say die, but you did:

18. Antarctica Poppers 1-7 (-90.9) (-1)

 

Tank alert: 

19. Rich Flying Squirrels 2-6 (-115.98) (0)

20. Lanc Fighting Amish 1-7 (-133.56) (0)

man.. I think you need to just batch 16-20 in the sam category here.. or at least 17-20

Also, it's weird to be in categories way lower than my record. I should feel good about my record, but it somehow feels dirty to have a better record than my underlying performance indicates

btw, for weeks 2-8, pwny is 41-29 (.5857) in predictions and ELO is also 41-29 (.5857)

those are your marks to beat with your rankings

[EaglesPeteC]

5 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

one-in-a-million chance:

16. Chicago Fire 3-5 (-48.84) (+0)

17. Tacoma Thunder 2-6 (-75.89) (+1)

[Malfatron]

WEEK 9 odds ordered by MER differential, indicating probability of victory (top teams most confident)

 

156.6
Lancaster Fighting Amish @ South Africa Woolly Mammoths

151.71
Indianapolis Predators @ Tacoma Thunder

115.46
Norway Knights @ Antarctica Penguin Poppers

104.52
Freiburg Venom @ Richmond Flying Squirrels

85.71
Little Rock Uni Royals @ Chicago Fire

67.75
Rio de Janeiro Pirates @ Hanoi Viet Kongs

42.56
Rocket City Trash Pandas @ Providence Patricias

25.89
Phoenix Rattlers @ Egypt Starfalls

21.78
Reykjavík Direwolves @ Anchorage Moose

13.62
Nassau Sea Wolves @ Scranton Papermakers

[Malfatron]

2 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

man.. I think you need to just batch 16-20 in the sam category here.. or at least 17-20

Also, it's weird to be in categories way lower than my record. I should feel good about my record, but it somehow feels dirty to have a better record than my underlying performance indicates

btw, for weeks 2-8, pwny is 41-29 (.5857) in predictions and ELO is also 41-29 (.5857)

those are your marks to beat with your rankings

but Clickbait!

(also, the MER is basically the same as the PWNY except stats drive certain teams up or down a couple notches)

[Malfatron]

@Tk3

Heres how the MER compares to the PWNY this week in terms of rankings (MER factors in stats too)

It doesnt affect any predictions though as its usually going to be akin to the PWNY prediction unless the teams are evenly matched.

Think of these rankings like the PWNY but add some additional efficiency stats that bump up or down the score

underrated by PWNY:

Egypt Starfalls 5-3 (+2)

Reykjavík Direwolves 5-3 (+2)

SA Woolly Mammoths 4-4 (+2)

Norway Knights 5-3 (+1)

Nassau Sea Wolves 6-2  (+1)

Anchorage Moose 4-4 (+1)

 

overrated by PWNY:

Phoenix Rattlers 4-4 (-2)

Scranton Papermakers 4-4 (-2)

Providence Patricias 4-4 (-1)

Little Rock Uni Royals 5-3 (-1)

Freiburg Venom 4-4 (-1)

Edited July 23, 2021 by Malfatron

[Karnage84]

Waiting on week 9 to drop...

[Malfatron]

1 minute ago, Karnage84 said:

Waiting on week 9 to drop...

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, Malfatron said: