2021 OTAs and Training Camp Thread

[craig]

While we're all talking about OTA's in the OTA thread, and discussing WR, one of the WR who got some favorable notes in camp was the kid from Colorado, Juwann Winfree.  We know of course that every OTA the QB's have to throw the ball to somebody, and the depth guys get plenty of snaps, and that every OTA and every camp there are a couple of depth guys who make a couple of catches.  So most likely Winfree will be no different.  But sometimes successful teams do get a combination of both smart and lucky with some obscure cheap depth pickups who actually do develop into something.  

There's nothing really unique in Winfree's record.  Not a blazer, his 40-time was really no better than the kinda pedestrian WR times that guys like Adams and Jordy and zillions of other WR's have who never make it.  Winfree wasn't slow, but not like he's MVS or Janis and his speed jumps out.  Good-sized at 6'1' and >200, but it's not like he's Funchess-long or Jordy or Janis.  Nor did he accumulate noteworthy college numbers in his injury-plagued career, like Lazard had.

But despite his injury-plagues pedestrian-stats college career, he was seen as toolsy enough for a 6th-round draft selection, even though he then immediately got injures yet again.  

Very remote long shot for sure.  But once in a while a guy who's been too perpetually coincidentally injured to ever get entrusted with many targets does magically get and stay healthy, sometimes a guy like that turns out to be a good player.  Would be fun if that could prove true for Winfree.  

[vegas492]

3 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

What would you be willing to pay to keep him? I would love to have him around, but if the reports of 25 million a year are accurate, not sure I can swallow that pill personally. 

Why not?  It's not your money.  Cap is going to go up.  Shouldn't be too hard to fit under the cap.  If Rodgers is gone, it frees up even more money.

I believe that the front office is going to do everything it can to help Love succeed.  Adams is a big part of that.  He makes us better regardless of who is under center.  And let's be fair, we've got no one behind him that has shown that they can be a true #1 receiver in this league.

If a player wants to be here, and it is just an issue of money, I'll bet Ball figures out a way to make it work.

But that is just me being optimistic here.

[vegas492]

6 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

They want him back for sure.  He's one of their best five players and will make the transition from Rodgers to Love much easier.  

I was talking to a friend about Adams/Rodgers.  I talked about how many more balls Adams gets because Rodgers targets him and looks at him first.  In my mind, I had little doubt that Adams production would dip if Love was under center.

He countered with....if you think Rodgers looks at Adams, then you have to KNOW that Love is going to look there even more.

Hard to counter that logic.  Adams will be a focal point regardless of who takes the snaps.  Which means....if the guy wants a number to sign, get to the number and make it happen.

[craig]

3 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

What would you be willing to pay to keep him? I would love to have him around, but if the reports of 25 million a year are accurate, not sure I can swallow that pill personally. 

Reports are often NOT accurate.  If he's going to cost $25/per, it seems that's not going to work for Packers.  But it may be that his agent won't really find that level of market interest, though.  Agents are always constrained by market interest; you take the best you can get.  

Sometimes determining that takes time.  Perhaps at the moment, the agent thinks he might get close to that level on the market.  Depending on how Adams health and performance look as the season progresses, and as the agent talks with other teams, perhaps he'll re-evaluate his market perception.  

Agent also has bet-hedging issues.  He too knows that Adams might have a serious injury.  *IF* he wants to get a deal done before this season begins, obviously he realizes he's got to settle for a discounted deal.  The longer he takes it into the season without Adams having a significant injury, the less discount the agent needs to accept.  

[R T]

26 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

Unsurprising you picked that out of all the facts I laid out to support my position! Something you couldn't do because facts were not your friend in this situation. At least one of us has a glimmer of hope! 

 

Your use of Landry, Clowney, Nagkoue as examples to justify why the Packers would get a 1st and more for Adams is not supporting your position. There is context to each individual situation. I could break each down and explain, but it would be a waste of time and I doubt anyone wants to see anymore on this. At first watching 'old man yells at clouds' is a little humorous, but quickly it turns to something else when it's realized they are not joking around. It's OK to just stop, doubt anybody wants to read anymore about this dead horse.     

[R T]

24 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I was talking to a friend about Adams/Rodgers.  I talked about how many more balls Adams gets because Rodgers targets him and looks at him first.  In my mind, I had little doubt that Adams production would dip if Love was under center.

He countered with....if you think Rodgers looks at Adams, then you have to KNOW that Love is going to look there even more.

Hard to counter that logic.  Adams will be a focal point regardless of who takes the snaps.  Which means....if the guy wants a number to sign, get to the number and make it happen.

That does make us think of 2017 and when Hundley was the QB for basically 10 games. Comparing Adams 2016 and 2017 season. 

2016 - 121 targets, 75 catches and 12 TD's with a 13.3 average per catch.

2017 - 117 targets, 74 catches and 10 TD's with a 12.0 average per catch. 

Maybe Adams touches will not be effected by who the trigger man is at all.   

[craig]

30 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

...Adams will be a focal point regardless of who takes the snaps.  Which means....if the guy wants a number to sign, get to the number and make it happen.

Agree, as your logic and the Hundley data mentioned by RT supports.  Adams is really good, and any offense and any QB is going to tend to throw to the best receiver.  So yeah, I agree that Adams is going to be a target-magnet regardless of who the QB is.  I also agree that having a really skillful, capable WR would be very helpful to Love.  Adams is also really smart and intellectual about his game; I think that helps any QB and the WR room.

That said, the NFL has a salary cap.  *IF* Rodgers is gone, that opens up cash for elsewhere.  But I think there is some fallacy that you can just always limitlessly find a way.  Bakhti, make him highest-paid.  Jaire?  Make him highest paid.  Adams?  Make him highest paid.  Clark?  Make him really highly paid.  The devil is in the details for sure, so maybe there's a way.  And obviously Rodgers factors, 

But I'm uncertain whether the cap allows the Packers to have so many big tickets.   Given how many other big tickets they've got, it's possible that Adams is just too good to afford.  

[Refugee]

42 minutes ago, R T said:

That does make us think of 2017 and when Hundley was the QB for basically 10 games. Comparing Adams 2016 and 2017 season. 

2016 - 121 targets, 75 catches and 12 TD's with a 13.3 average per catch.

2017 - 117 targets, 74 catches and 10 TD's with a 12.0 average per catch. 

Maybe Adams touches will not be effected by who the trigger man is at all.   

That came to my mind, as well. I will say that this offense is more diverse and talented than what we had sans Adams in 2017. Lafleur has shown he can be productive without his #1. 

[{Family Ghost}]

18 minutes ago, Refugee said:

That came to my mind, as well. I will say that this offense is more diverse and talented than what we had sans Adams in 2017. Lafleur has shown he can be productive without his #1. 

I'd agree, but that's with Rodgers at the helm .. not Love.  Adams would be far more valuable to a Jordan Love led offense than a Rodgers led offense.

[Refugee]

1 minute ago, {Family Ghost} said:

I'd agree, but that's with Rodgers at the helm .. not Love.  Adams would be far more valuable to a Jordan Love led offense than a Rodgers led offense.

Of course 12 will run it better than 10, this year and possibly every year. If AR is out, it is much easier to keep Adams but the cap is real and we are over it. Keeping both can free up some money in the very short term and create issues down the line. If both stay healthy and happy to be here, they could be worth it but a huge % of the cap would be invested in very few players. I won’t rehash all the scenarios but this year and next are pivotal for the franchise. 

[vegas492]

41 minutes ago, craig said:

 

But I'm uncertain whether the cap allows the Packers to have so many big tickets.   Given how many other big tickets they've got, it's possible that Adams is just too good to afford.  

What you are talking about is structure.  As in, who is going to be released to make room for Adams, when his contract hits the higher water marks.

Preston?  Jones?  Amos?  Bakh?

Adams wouldn't be all that tough to get under the cap with during the first couple years of his deal.  It's after that when you need to project the roster and the guys on it.

Honestly, I don't worry about it.  It's Ball's job to worry about it.  If the player wants to be in GB and GB wants the player, the rest works itself out.

[15412]

There are other contracts coming up as well with impact but what the Packers intend to do with Jenkins and Alexander have much to do with what contract moves they make with anyone else from the top down.  I don't know how you sign Adams, Jenkins, and Alexander along with other needed obligations in the near future.  That's a big can to kick down the road followed by a big locomotive coming to run you over...

Edited June 25, 2021 by 15412

[Old Guy]

1 hour ago, R T said:

Your use of Landry, Clowney, Nagkoue as examples to justify why the Packers would get a 1st and more for Adams is not supporting your position. There is context to each individual situation. I could break each down and explain, but it would be a waste of time and I doubt anyone wants to see anymore on this. At first watching 'old man yells at clouds' is a little humorous, but quickly it turns to something else when it's realized they are not joking around. It's OK to just stop, doubt anybody wants to read anymore about this dead horse.     

You could break down each one and it would not support your thoughts.

Clownney was coming off injury and a terrible year his value was down.

Nagkoue was a hold out, the season was already in motion so the Vikings got a deal. It didn't work out for them.

Landry was disgruntled and Miami was a very poor run organization at that time. Cleveland got a steal.

Dee Ford was damaged goods and so the 9ers got a discount. That hasn't worked in San Fran's favor as he's really damaged.

Clark was the only one you could really compare to Adams. He was playing well and healthy. Adams is at the top of the WR pecking order and he's healthy too!  Therefore, Seattle got a haul for him. 

[vegas492]

2 hours ago, Old Guy said:

You could break down each one and it would not support your thoughts.

Clownney was coming off injury and a terrible year his value was down.

Nagkoue was a hold out, the season was already in motion so the Vikings got a deal. It didn't work out for them.

Landry was disgruntled and Miami was a very poor run organization at that time. Cleveland got a steal.

Dee Ford was damaged goods and so the 9ers got a discount. That hasn't worked in San Fran's favor as he's really damaged.

Clark was the only one you could really compare to Adams. He was playing well and healthy. Adams is at the top of the WR pecking order and he's healthy too!  Therefore, Seattle got a haul for him. 

Eh.  No.  I don't feel like Frank Clark is the one you can compare to Adams.

Premier positions in the NFL.  QB.  LT.  EDGE.  Probably corner after that.  WR does not make the list.

EDGE goes against LT's to get to the QB in a QB driven league.  There can be a great gap in athletic talent between a pass rusher and a left tackle.  Size, speed, quickness, strength.  And it goes both ways.

WR's play against corners.  Both are similar in size, speed and strength.

Teams should give up more to get a talented QB, EDGE or LT than they would a WR.

I get the health thing, but I feel that the WR position itself deflates the value.

And.....also.....I feel like there will always be teams who will overvalue a WR.

[Old Guy]

9 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Eh.  No.  I don't feel like Frank Clark is the one you can compare to Adams.

Premier positions in the NFL.  QB.  LT.  EDGE.  Probably corner after that.  WR does not make the list.

EDGE goes against LT's to get to the QB in a QB driven league.  There can be a great gap in athletic talent between a pass rusher and a left tackle.  Size, speed, quickness, strength.  And it goes both ways.

WR's play against corners.  Both are similar in size, speed and strength.

Teams should give up more to get a talented QB, EDGE or LT than they would a WR.

I get the health thing, but I feel that the WR position itself deflates the value.

And.....also.....I feel like there will always be teams who will overvalue a WR.

I agree with this, mostly. The exception being Frank Clark was not considered elite at his position, Adams clearly is. Time will tell and this hypothetical may never play out. We may re-sign Adams. Who knows, we're all just spit balling on possibilities.