Examples of Butterfly Effect in football?

[Norm]

Packers draft Love and Rodgers stops being a bum and wins MVP and tries to whine his way out but loses and then wins the SB. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Norm

[Art_Vandalay]

The ol’ Elvis Dumervil / Broncos fax fiasco. In 2013, Elvis and the Broncos had ongoing negotiations about a pay-cut. They finally reached an agreement right before the cap hit came into effect but Elvis’ agent couldn’t find a fax machine and faxed the contract six minutes too late. This led to the Broncos cutting him to avoid a massive cap hit.

In need of a pass rusher the following year, the Broncos sign Demarcus Ware who immediately becomes a leader and an integral part of their defense over the next couple of years, including the year their defense led them to a championship.

[7DnBrnc53]

4 hours ago, Art_Vandalay said:

The ol’ Elvis Dumervil / Broncos fax fiasco. In 2013, Elvis and the Broncos had ongoing negotiations about a pay-cut. They finally reached an agreement right before the cap hit came into effect but Elvis’ agent couldn’t find a fax machine and faxed the contract six minutes too late. This led to the Broncos cutting him to avoid a massive cap hit.

In need of a pass rusher the following year, the Broncos sign Demarcus Ware who immediately becomes a leader and an integral part of their defense over the next couple of years, including the year their defense led them to a championship.

That's a good one, but the play that shaped the last 13 years of Denver football was in Week 16 of the 2008 season. With 2:00 left in the first half, the Broncos were up 13-3, and had the ball on Buffalo's 37. Instead of punting on a cold day, though, he had a slumping Matt Prater (in his first year) kick a 54-yard FG. The kick missed, the Bills went down and cut the lead to three before the half, and went on to a 30-23 win.

If Shanahan punts, the Broncos probably go up 13-3 at halftime (or better), and I don't see the Bills coming back in that one. The Broncos make the playoffs, and Shanny doesn't get fired no matter what happens (they probably get smoked by Indy. The 2008 Broncos had a terrible defense).

Shanahan's return butterflies away the ill-fated McDaniels era (and, there is no Tebow in Denver), and it means that Cutler spends more of his career in Denver (maybe he has a different career with Shanny and Bates, the QB coach). They also don't get Elway in 2011 and Manning in 2012 (and all that entails), and they aren't in the situation they are in now.

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by 7DnBrnc53

[chrispw1]

Week 17, Bucs at Packers, at the end of the fourth quarter, Gramatica misses a field goal and Bucs go on to lose in overtime which meant the difference between them getting a first round bye and divisional round home game and having to go to Philadelphia. If they win and get to at least the conference title game again perhaps T Dungy doesn't get fired after the end of the following season and then does Gruden stay with the Raiders and who would the Colts hire instead to replace Mora

[Apparition]

On 8/20/2021 at 10:37 AM, chrispw1 said:

Week 17, Bucs at Packers, at the end of the fourth quarter, Gramatica misses a field goal and Bucs go on to lose in overtime which meant the difference between them getting a first round bye and divisional round home game and having to go to Philadelphia. If they win and get to at least the conference title game again perhaps T Dungy doesn't get fired after the end of the following season and then does Gruden stay with the Raiders and who would the Colts hire instead to replace Mora

Tempting to say that it didn't really matter because they had Peyton Manning and the Colts defense remained bad for the first few years under Dungy. But I imagine that if they had missed out on Dungy they might have gone after Schottenheimer or John Fox.

[rfournier103]

On 6/26/2021 at 4:18 PM, ronjon1990 said:

Another is obviously Drew Bledsoe going down in New England. Brady being Brady, he probably eventually gets a shot, but is his legend as great? 

 

I don’t have a source that I can cite for here, but have heard from a very reliable source that Drew Bledsoe was at most two weeks away from being benched by Bill Belichick had Mo Lewis not sped up the timetable. Belichick had gone 5-11 in 2000, and the Patriots didn’t look very good in the 2001 opener at Cincinnati. Even if Bledsoe doesn’t get hurt vs. the Jets in the second game of the season, the Patriots still fall to 0-2, Belichick is now 5-13 in his time with the Patriots, and he is very much on the hot seat with his job in jeopardy. 
 

Everyone knows the change was inevitable, but most don’t realize just how imminent it really was. 

[7DnBrnc53]

1 hour ago, rfournier103 said:

I don’t have a source that I can cite for here, but have heard from a very reliable source that Drew Bledsoe was at most two weeks away from being benched by Bill Belichick had Mo Lewis not sped up the timetable. Belichick had gone 5-11 in 2000, and the Patriots didn’t look very good in the 2001 opener at Cincinnati. Even if Bledsoe doesn’t get hurt vs. the Jets in the second game of the season, the Patriots still fall to 0-2, Belichick is now 5-13 in his time with the Patriots, and he is very much on the hot seat with his job in jeopardy. 
 

Everyone knows the change was inevitable, but most don’t realize just how imminent it really was. 

With Bledsoe, there are two "what ifs" from the first two weeks of the 2001 season that I will focus on:

1. What if Bledsoe got the first down on the QB sneak with about 2:50 left on a 4th and 2 (around the Bengal 38) in Week 1 against Cincy (with NE down 23-17)?

2. What if NE FB Marc Edwards didn't fumble the ball inside the 10 in the third quarter with the Pats and Jets tied at 3?

Against the Bengals, Bledsoe had a 94.3 rating with 2 TD passes and 241 yards passing. He didn't do as well the next week against the Jets, however, throwing for 159 yards and 2 picks before the famous injury. So, it was a mixed bag with him. If Bledsoe pulls those games out, though, and doesn't get hurt, I think Brady is going elsewhere to play.

Also, while your source said that Bledsoe was close to getting benched (I also think that Scott Pioli said that they were planning to move on to Brady by some point in 2001 or 02), Charlie Weis denied this. When Mike Florio asked him about this on PFT in 2017 (if there was a plan to move on to Brady by 2002), Weis said that there wasn't. Also, Adam Vinatieri (on an NFL Network Top 10 show) said something about how Brady wouldn't have seen the field if Bledsoe didn't get hurt.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 27, 2021 by 7DnBrnc53

[rfournier103]

15 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

With Bledsoe, there are two "what ifs" from the first two weeks of the 2001 season that I will focus on:

1. What if Bledsoe got the first down on the QB sneak with about 2:50 left on a 4th and 2 (around the Bengal 38) in Week 1 against Cincy (with NE down 23-17)?

2. What if NE FB Marc Edwards didn't fumble the ball inside the 10 in the third quarter with the Pats and Jets tied at 3?

Against the Bengals, Bledsoe had a 94.3 rating with 2 TD passes and 241 yards passing. He didn't do as well the next week against the Jets, however, throwing for 159 yards and 2 picks before the famous injury. So, it was a mixed bag with him. If Bledsoe pulls those games out, though, and doesn't get hurt, I think Brady is going elsewhere to play.

Also, while your source said that Bledsoe was close to getting benched (I also think that Scott Pioli said that they were planning to move on to Brady by some point in 2001 or 02), Charlie Weis denied this. When Mike Florio asked him about this on PFT in 2017 (if there was a plan to move on to Brady by 2002), Weis said that there wasn't. Also, Adam Vinatieri (on an NFL Network Top 10 show) said something about how Brady wouldn't have seen the field if Bledsoe didn't get hurt.

 

 

 

 

I guess I’ll address all of this as best I can. 
 

Hard to tell the what-ifs from the 2001 season before the Bledsoe injury, but I do know that Tom Brady wasn’t drafted to be a backup. Bledsoe having success in 2001 and not getting hurt certainly would have changed a lot, but I think the switch was inevitable. Belichick was assuredly going to replace Bledsoe with Brady the way he replaced Kosar with Testaverde in Cleveland. Even without the Lewis hit, it was only a matter of time. 
 

I don’t know why Charlie Weis said what he said, but Adam Vinatieri was good friends with Bledsoe and would not have been privy to any plans to replace him. 
 

My source is Michael Holley (radio host and author), who spent every day for two years (2002-2003) ‘embedded’ with the Patriots going to every practice; meeting; and game for his book: “Patriot Reign.” Holley had unprecedented access to the Patriots and Bill Belichick himself, and said clear as day on his radio show that Drew Bledsoe was going to get benched. 

Edited August 28, 2021 by rfournier103

[7DnBrnc53]

9 hours ago, rfournier103 said:

I guess I’ll address all of this as best I can. 
 

Hard to tell the what-ifs from the 2001 season before the Bledsoe injury, but I do know that Tom Brady wasn’t drafted to be a backup. Bledsoe having success in 2001 and not getting hurt certainly would have changed a lot, but I think the switch was inevitable. Belichick was assuredly going to replace Bledsoe with Brady the way he replaced Kosar with Testaverde in Cleveland. Even without the Lewis hit, it was only a matter of time. 
 

I don’t know why Charlie Weis said what he said, but Adam Vinatieri was good friends with Bledsoe and would not have been privy to any plans to replace him. 
 

My source is Michael Holley (radio host and author), who spent every day for two years (2002-2003) ‘embedded’ with the Patriots going to every practice; meeting; and game for his book: “Patriot Reign.” Holley had unprecedented access to the Patriots and Bill Belichick himself, and said clear as day on his radio show that Drew Bledsoe was going to get benched. 

If the Pats find a way to win the first two games, and he doesn't get hurt, Bledsoe will stay QB.

However, if they still start 0-2, if Bledsoe is healthy, and he continues to struggle (and the team continues to lose), a switch makes sense, which leads to something else:

Would the Pats get rid of Bledsoe at the 2001 trade deadline? Or do they wait to see what happens with Brady, and trade him the following year?

Edited August 28, 2021 by 7DnBrnc53

[rfournier103]

1 hour ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

If the Pats find a way to win the first two games, and he doesn't get hurt, Bledsoe will stay QB.

However, if they still start 0-2, if Bledsoe is healthy, and he continues to struggle (and the team continues to lose), a switch makes sense, which leads to something else:

Would the Pats get rid of Bledsoe at the 2001 trade deadline? Or do they wait to see what happens with Brady, and trade him the following year?

My guess is Bledsoe would be traded in the offseason unless a too good to refuse offer came up. But that is only speculation on my part. 

[7DnBrnc53]

23 hours ago, rfournier103 said:

My guess is Bledsoe would be traded in the offseason unless a too good to refuse offer came up. But that is only speculation on my part. 

Maybe the Bears try to get him (at the 01 trade deadline). They had a great defense, and a decent offense with a good O-line, the A-Train, and Marty Booker. They were a QB away from being a serious SB contender.

Edited August 29, 2021 by 7DnBrnc53

[7DnBrnc53]

In Week 14 of the 2011 season, the Cowboys were hosting the Giants. Dallas was 7-5, and the Giants were 6-6. This was a critical game for the division lead.

At one point in the fourth quarter, Dallas had a 34-22 lead before Eli hit rookie TE Jake Ballard with an eight-yard TD to cut the deficit to five with 3:22 left.

Then, with 2:25 left in the game, the play of the game (and maybe one of the most pivotal plays of the last 12 years happened): It was 3rd and 5, and Dallas had the ball on their own 25. Miles Austin was breaking open, but him and Romo didn't connect on a play that could have sealed the win for Dallas.

Instead, Eli got another chance, and the Giants drove down to take the lead with a TD run by Jacobs with 51 seconds left. The Cowboys could have tied it in the end, but Dan Bailey missed a 47-yard FG.

If Dallas wins that game (either with the Austin-Romo play, or in OT if Bailey hits the FG), they are 8-5 heading into Tampa with a chance to clinch the division title. In reality, they won, so they would have won the division with two games left in the season.

In the playoffs, I see Dallas beating the Falcons at home, but not the Packers (who end up back in the SB against NE, and win another one).

As for the Giants, a collapse that year (they started 6-2) and the following year (they started 6-2 in 2012 before finishing 9-7 and out of the playoffs) probably gets Coughlin fired and Eli traded. Maybe Andy Reid replaces Coughlin instead of going to KC, and Eli ends up in Buffalo (or KC, or maybe even Oakland).

Also, since the Giants have nothing to play for in Week 16, they lose to the Jets, who end up going back to the postseason. They beat the Schaub-less Texans in Round 1 before getting curb-stomped in Foxboro in a revenge game (for the 2010 AFC Divisonal Round). However, that probably keeps Sexy Rexy there longer, and since the Giants aren't SB champs, the Jets don't trade for Tebow. He ends up in Jacksonville, where he may have stayed longer.

 

[biggie.]

Here's one: SB47 (SF/BAL) is not only highly consequential in the NFL, it affected American politics.

1st & goal at the 7 yard line: hand off up the middle with...LaMichael James, who is much smaller and fumbled earlier in the game, instead of Frank Gore, who scored a touchdown and was playing very well. Ok.

2nd & goal at the 5 yard line: Kaepernick tries a bootleg to Crabtree. 

3rd & goal at the 5: Kaepernick drops back, incomplete pass to Crabtree outside of the end zone. Shy would you not go for the end zone???

4th and goal at the 5: Kaepernick drops back again despite BAL going on a blitz and overthrows Crabtree.

So not a single play action pass, Gore run or an RPO: the three things that got SF to the SB and maximized Kap's abilities.

If SF won:

1. Harbaugh wins his power struggle against GM Trent Baalke, meaning Baalke leaves the team instead.

2. With Harbaugh still around, Kaepernick never starts kneeling, which entirely changes the political landscape in America and he likely stays in the NFL.

3. WIth Kaepernick still on the team, SF never trades for Jimmy Garoppolo.

4. WIth SF never entering the Garoppolo sweepstakes, does that mean NE trades him to CLE as rumored or do they move on from Tom Brady earlier?

Edited September 11, 2021 by biggie.

[Shady Slim]

if trump isn’t gazumped for the bills in ‘14 then he doesn’t become president 

my thoughts of his presidency (which are almost wholly negative, and i am leaving it at that so we don’t derail what is a great thread) aside, going off the exertions we saw of his with the USFL it would not have gone well for the bills had he won the race for their ownership i expect lol

[7DnBrnc53]

5 hours ago, biggie. said:

Here's one: what if SF won SB47 against BAL?

1st & goal at the 7 yard line: hand off up the middle with...LaMichael James instead of Frank Gore. Ok.

2nd & goal at the 5 yard line: Kaepernick tries a bootleg to Crabtree.

3rd & goal at the 5: Kaepernick drops back, incomplete pass to Crabtree outside of the end zone.

4th and goal at the 5: Kaepernick drops back again despite BAL going on a blitz and overthrows Crabtree.

So no hand offs to Frank Gore or any RPOs for Kaepernick.

If SF wins, Harbaugh would almost certainly get the extension he was looking for because a SB win would almost certainly force the team to keep him. With Harbaugh still around, Kaepernick doesn't start the kneeling garbage.

 

2 hours ago, Shady Slim said:

if trump isn’t gazumped for the bills in ‘14 then he doesn’t become president 

my thoughts of his presidency (which are almost wholly negative, and i am leaving it at that so we don’t derail what is a great thread) aside, going off the exertions we saw of his with the USFL it would not have gone well for the bills had he won the race for their ownership i expect lol

These scenarios may be the biggest of the last seven years in the NFL and in the world. For example, if Trump isn't president, the COVID-19 situation we have been in for the last year and a half probably doesn't exist.