2022 Free agency thread

[Sugashane]

4 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Nobody is talking about the difference between 5 or 7 wins. It’s inconsequential in the big picture.

To add to this...

While I won't crown anyone as being Aaron Donald dominant (and will never claim to believe Donald could be THIS good either to be fair) we were one pointless win away from being able to draft him. 

 

 

[AZBearsFan]

6 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I get what your saying AZ. I just can’t see his “presence” being worth more than the cap savings and draft picks.

And that’s just a difference of opinion, which is totally fair. 🍻

[JAF-N72EX]

FO should've done alot more in free agency. They have created more holes than they have filled and backed themselves into a corner by relying too heavily on the draft. There needs to be balance with both FA and the draft. Relying too much on the draft is a big gamble and rarely ever works out. Even for already established teams. This was Ted Thompson's problem in GB.

Last year the defense finished 13th overall in DVOA, despite being 4th in team sacks with 49, and the roster looks significantly worse now than it did 3 months ago.

Nothing was done to improve the secondary. The pass rush was the only thing that kept the defense from being a total disaster last year, and now we have to find a way to atleast maintain around the same amount production or this defense is going to be ugly and I just don't see how you can do it. FA looks bare now, and even if they do draft a pass rusher or IDL they're most likely not going to make much of an impact this year since most don't in year 1.

Furthermore, how does fielding a much worse defense help Fields' progression in year 2 when all you are doing is asking alot more out of him.

2021 sack leaders
Robert Quinn    18.5
Trevis Gipson    7.0
Khalil Mack    6.0
Akiem Hicks    3.5
Roquan Smith    3.0
Bilal Nichols    3.0
Angelo Blackson    2.5
Mario Edwards    2.0
Tashaun Gipson    1.0
Kindle Vildor    1.0
Cassius Marsh    1.0
Eddie Goldman    0.5

3 of our top-6 sack leaders are gone. That's 12.5 sacks worth of production that need to be replaced.

Quinn's 18.5 sacks accounted for 38% of teams 49 total sacks and it's highly unlikely that he repeats. I don't think he even cracks 10 sacks this season, but for sake of argument lets just say that he does. That is still 8.5 sacks loss in production that we have to find elsewhere.

Trevis Gipson was very efficient last year with 7 sacks in only 210 pass rushes (3.3 sack %) and he could take the next step with more PT. By comparison, Mack had 6 sacks in 167 pass rushes before injury. His 3.6 sack % was a career high.

Roquan getting 3 sacks from the WLB position is probably the most reasonable in Flus's scheme since he's going to be asked to play alot in coverage and Flus rarely blitzes. In 4 years under flus, Darius Leonard only averaged 49 pass rushes per season as a Will (or 9.2% avg snaps/season). By comparison, Quan's average in 4 years is also very similar (51 rushes per year / 9.9% snaps).

Still don't know where Morrow will play or how much PT he will get. But it's safe to say SLB is not a significant position at all in todays NFL (especially pass rush) with most teams using a NB in their place.

Blackson and Edwards with 4.5 sacks combined is probably the high for them.

The IDL looks rough. Justin Jones, Blackson and Edwards are just rotational depth guys.

It does sucks Larry Ogun didn't work out tho (pun intended). He would've been a nice addition, especially at a good price.

[WindyCity]

JAF, I think that you are correct. Free agency at best has allowed them to tread water. I think the Larry O thing derailed their early free agency plan and then they got to conservative.

We are going to be drafting desperate.

 

I also think they are banking significantly on better coaching. Which could very well be real, but assuming it is a bit of a risk. I think Eberflus is a + coach on defense. He will make the unit better than it’s talent. I don’t have any idea what Getsy is.

[Sugashane]

5 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

FO should've done alot more in free agency. They have created more holes than they have filled and backed themselves into a corner by relying too heavily on the draft. There needs to be balance with both FA and the draft. Relying too much on the draft is a big gamble and rarely ever works out. Even for already established teams. This was Ted Thompson's problem in GB.

Last year the defense finished 13th overall in DVOA, despite being 4th in team sacks with 49, and the roster looks significantly worse now than it did 3 months ago.

Nothing was done to improve the secondary. The pass rush was the only thing that kept the defense from being a total disaster last year, and now we have to find a way to atleast maintain around the same amount production or this defense is going to be ugly and I just don't see how you can do it. FA looks bare now, and even if they do draft a pass rusher or IDL they're most likely not going to make much of an impact this year since most don't in year 1.

Furthermore, how does fielding a much worse defense help Fields' progression in year 2 when all you are doing is asking alot more out of him.

2021 sack leaders
Robert Quinn    18.5
Trevis Gipson    7.0
Khalil Mack    6.0
Akiem Hicks    3.5
Roquan Smith    3.0
Bilal Nichols    3.0
Angelo Blackson    2.5
Mario Edwards    2.0
Tashaun Gipson    1.0
Kindle Vildor    1.0
Cassius Marsh    1.0
Eddie Goldman    0.5

3 of our top-6 sack leaders are gone. That's 12.5 sacks worth of production that need to be replaced.

Quinn's 18.5 sacks accounted for 38% of teams 49 total sacks and it's highly unlikely that he repeats. I don't think he even cracks 10 sacks this season, but for sake of argument lets just say that he does. That is still 8.5 sacks loss in production that we have to find elsewhere.

Trevis Gipson was very efficient last year with 7 sacks in only 210 pass rushes (3.3 sack %) and he could take the next step with more PT. By comparison, Mack had 6 sacks in 167 pass rushes before injury. His 3.6 sack % was a career high.

Roquan getting 3 sacks from the WLB position is probably the most reasonable in Flus's scheme since he's going to be asked to play alot in coverage and Flus rarely blitzes. In 4 years under flus, Darius Leonard only averaged 49 pass rushes per season as a Will (or 9.2% avg snaps/season). By comparison, Quan's average in 4 years is also very similar (51 rushes per year / 9.9% snaps).

Still don't know where Morrow will play or how much PT he will get. But it's safe to say SLB is not a significant position at all in todays NFL (especially pass rush) with most teams using a NB in their place.

Blackson and Edwards with 4.5 sacks combined is probably the high for them.

The IDL looks rough. Justin Jones, Blackson and Edwards are just rotational depth guys.

It does sucks Larry Ogun didn't work out tho (pun intended). He would've been a nice addition, especially at a good price.

Agreed. I think Poles has taken a position where he wants to see what he has with some of the young guys with more PT and then can move on from there. 

Hopefully some of these guys step up with more snaps and show they are worth keeping around for a longer stretch. That's hopefully going to allow FO to be more direct and have a good plan in FA and draft for 2023. It almost seems like 2022 is an extended tryout for the defense atm. 

[WindyCity]

12 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Agreed. I think Poles has taken a position where he wants to see what he has with some of the young guys with more PT and then can move on from there. 

Hopefully some of these guys step up with more snaps and show they are worth keeping around for a longer stretch. That's hopefully going to allow FO to be more direct and have a good plan in FA and draft for 2023. It almost seems like 2022 is an extended tryout for the defense atm. 

I agree. If they had signed an older CB like Rhodes to stabilize CB2. Or an older SS… I would kind of see them trying to set a reasonable floor for the defense.

I don’t see much concern in what the defense is this year.

Play the young guys. What happens happens and we address is in 2023.

[Bfan]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

Agreed. I think Poles has taken a position where he wants to see what he has with some of the young guys with more PT and then can move on from there. 

Hopefully some of these guys step up with more snaps and show they are worth keeping around for a longer stretch. That's hopefully going to allow FO to be more direct and have a good plan in FA and draft for 2023. It almost seems like 2022 is an extended tryout for the defense atm. 

This is where I'm at until Fields demonstrates he is at least a competent starting QB. Until then this team is not going anywhere we want them to be and I would question spending premium prices for asset we don`t expect to be around for 4 or5 years.  Because until then it's still a serious risk that in a couple of years we will be jumping back on the QB carousel.

[WindyCity]

29 minutes ago, Bfan said:

This is where I'm at until Fields demonstrates he is at least a competent starting QB. Until then this team is not going anywhere we want them to be and I would question spending premium prices for asset we don`t expect to be around for 4 or5 years.  Because until then it's still a serious risk that in a couple of years we will be jumping back on the QB carousel.

You still have to go for it and give the Qb every chance to succeed.

If Fields isn’t the guy… this is a nuclear rebuild.

[WindyCity]

Steven Nelson to the Texans 2/10

 

That was a CB with tons of staff connections I thought we might sign.

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

You still have to go for it and give the Qb every chance to succeed.

If Fields isn’t the guy… this is a nuclear rebuild.

Unless Fields plays at Mike Glennon levels of bad he gets at least 3 years.  

[JAF-N72EX]

2 hours ago, Bfan said:

This is where I'm at until Fields demonstrates he is at least a competent starting QB. Until then this team is not going anywhere we want them to be and I would question spending premium prices for asset we don`t expect to be around for 4 or5 years.  Because until then it's still a serious risk that in a couple of years we will be jumping back on the QB carousel.

If fans choose to look at this way then I don't think there's anything wrong with it either.

If Poles is using this year to assess the roster in real time before committing to anyone long term (Fields included) then I don't think there's anything wrong with this line of thinking either.

Look, I think the majority of us believe in Fields and feel he is worth building around. But lets be real here....how we feel about him as fans mean nothing in the scheme of things. Fields still has to prove it on the field. I say it all the time, potential means nothing if a player never reaches it. Maybe Poles wants to see how Fields runs the new offense before risking future assets and his job. And to be honest, it might not be a bad idea either. In fact, if this is the case, then it could actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

I'm keeping an open mind here and also brainstorming.

So let's paint a scenerio.

Lets say Fields comes out in 2022 and doesn't really show the level of progression that we had hoped for in year 2. Wouldn't it start to feel like we've seen this movie before with another QB in Mitch?

The big difference would be that Pace risked everything for Mitch and Poles wouldn't have  risked anything for Fields and would still have all future assets to build around "his guy". Looking back, in hindsight, wouldn't you have rather seen Pace trade Mitch in year 2, like Kiem did with Rosen in Arizona, and let Nagy choose his own QB in the 2018 draft? (Do we end up with Josh Allen?

Maybe Poles is thinking the same thing? And would it be so bad if he decided to cut ties before it was too late? Because lets be honest, Poles only has this one year to choose a side. In 2023, it's gonna be either fully invest in Fields or cut ties altogether. He won't be able to ride the fence anymore.

This way we would get a new GM, a new HC, a new staff, and they get to build around the guy they specifically chose, and will either sink or swim with him, as opposed to adapting around a guy left from the last regime.

My only two complaints about this approach would be. One, Poles isn't really giving fields much of a chance with how the roster looks right now. In fact, it looks like he's setting him up for failure. And two, is there a better QB prospect than Fields in next years draft? I'm not so sure about that. So those two things would make for an odd transition and would need to be taken into account too.

 

[WindyCity]

The problem with where we are right now is if Fields isn’t good in 2022 I will have serious questions about whether that is what he is… or that the Bears haven’t don’t enough to support him.

Would be nice to get a clean evaluation.

[JAF-N72EX]

7 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

The problem with where we are right now is if Fields isn’t good in 2022 I will have serious questions about whether that is what he is… or that the Bears haven’t don’t enough to support him.

Would be nice to get a clean evaluation.

Same. And that's why I'm not a fan of how the roster is being built right now. It's almost like their either giving up on Fields already, or they feel like he's Jesus come back to earth.

[AZBearsFan]

56 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

In 2023, it's gonna be either fully invest in Fields or cut ties altogether. He won't be able to ride the fence anymore.

I don’t think that’s the case. Unless he’s dreadful in 2022 (which I don’t think any of us expect) I think he gets 2023 too. Poles didn’t draft him, but he also knows 2021 wasn’t handled well from the standpoint of setting Fields up to succeed either. I don’t think he holds that against him as much as fans would, especially knowing what he is and has not put around him from an established talent standpoint. I think Poles gets the rope to choose his own QB if he gets to the end of 2023 and Fields isn’t it.

Hopefully Fields balls out in 2022 regardless of the level of team success and this whole discussion becomes irrelevant very quickly. 

[JAF-N72EX]

9 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t think that’s the case. Unless he’s dreadful in 2022 (which I don’t think any of us expect) I think he gets 2023 too. Poles didn’t draft him, but he also knows 2021 wasn’t handled well from the standpoint of setting Fields up to succeed either. I don’t think he holds that against him as much as fans would, especially knowing what he is and has not put around him from an established talent standpoint. I think Poles gets the rope to choose his own QB if he gets to the end of 2023 and Fields isn’t it.

Hopefully Fields balls out in 2022 regardless of the level of team success and this whole discussion becomes irrelevant very quickly. 

Hence, the scenario.

Poles would have to make a decision. Good GMs build their teams around QBs. If Poles is still undecided about the direction of this team (Fields) next offseason then he can leave now for all I care, cause going 2 years in row with no direction sounds like a terrible plan and a recipe for disaster.  Two offseasons like this one and he would get absolutely destroyed by the media.