2018 NFL Free Agents Thread

[Forge]

2 hours ago, rudyZ said:

I just think his contract is irrelevant. It has no impact on our ability to sign other players this year. It will have no impact next year. It will have no impact in two years. I really don't care. Sure, you can oppose it on principles, but really, it's just irrelevant. If anything, I just think it's funny. And honestly, I'm happy for the guy. Invest that money, Jerrick! Still, at the end of the day, week, month or year, I still won't care about it. Now, if we signed Brock Osweiler to a five year deal with 40m guaranteed, and it blew up in our face and impacted us for a few years after he was released or traded, and prevented us from spending because we're too close to the cap, then yeah, I'd be angry, I'd see the relevance of calling it a bad contract. But as things stand, I really just don't care. There's really just no way it can come back and haunt us for years to come. It is an overpay, but an irrelevant one. Let's give 10m for one year to Kyle Nelson!! Okay, that's just silly. But do you really think the 7m difference between the contract you suggest and the one McKinnon got, the 7m that would have been rolled over, will really have an impact on our ability to sign players in the future? I don't. The contract isn't good, I agree. No one can argue it is good. But it could be much worse.

Don't disagree that it's irrelevant, but as I said in another post, I'm troubled by our propensity to overpay marginal players. I'd rather overpay the all pros depending on some other factors lol. And I'm not so quick to dump off the 7 million as you, that could come in handy 3 years down the line. But largely, I think we are in agreement here. Irrelevant, yes. Good contract, no. Will it severely hinder us moving forward? No. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

I think throughout his tenure we will question the type of contracts Shanny hands out offensive players (Juice Check/McKinnon), but he just values receiving options more than anything. He talked about last week how much of an advantage it is to have five receiving options on the field. I just felt we could have found that receiving option in the draft, but hey if Shanny really likes him, then so be it. 

[Ronnie's Pinky]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Don't disagree that it's irrelevant, but as I said in another post, I'm troubled by our propensity to overpay marginal players.

I really don't think Juice is a marginal player, especially not in Shanahan's 21 personnel scheme where two halfbacks + 1 TE is the normal look. Look at Juszczyk's game logs and snap counts. With Garoppolo as the starter, Juice's snap counts/game were way up (184 out of his 394 total snaps were in the last five weeks), as were his receiving yards (averaged about 40 yards/game over the past 5 weeks after averaging about 10 yards/game over the first 11). We only got to see what Juice can do in the last five games of the season, and he looked really good. We already know he's an excellent blocker in both run and pass protection, with the mobility to succeed in Kyle's outside zone scheme. Let's just see what Juice can do for a full season with a real QB behind center before declaring him a "marginal player". Yeah, he's getting paid a lot more than any other fullback in the league, but that's because there are no other fullbacks in the league like him. He is in his own little category, and there's a reason the front office went out and got him. I think we'll see that reason much more clearly in 2018.

Here's a link to an article which talks about Shanahan's scheme. You'll notice what a large role Juice plays in a lot of these sets as a blocker. Having Juszczyk on the field gives Kyle the ability to show some looks and use some sets that aren't available to other teams. My hunch is that, as time goes on, people will come to appreciate Juice's role in the offense more and more.

[Forge]

51 minutes ago, Ronnie's Pinky said:

I really don't think Juice is a marginal player, especially not in Shanahan's 21 personnel scheme where two halfbacks + 1 TE is the normal look. Look at Juszczyk's game logs and snap counts. With Garoppolo as the starter, Juice's snap counts/game were way up (184 out of his 394 total snaps were in the last five weeks), as were his receiving yards (averaged about 40 yards/game over the past 5 weeks after averaging about 10 yards/game over the first 11). We only got to see what Juice can do in the last five games of the season, and he looked really good. We already know he's an excellent blocker in both run and pass protection, with the mobility to succeed in Kyle's outside zone scheme. Let's just see what Juice can do for a full season with a real QB behind center before declaring him a "marginal player". Yeah, he's getting paid a lot more than any other fullback in the league, but that's because there are no other fullbacks in the league like him. He is in his own little category, and there's a reason the front office went out and got him. I think we'll see that reason much more clearly in 2018.

Here's a link to an article which talks about Shanahan's scheme. You'll notice what a large role Juice plays in a lot of these sets as a blocker. Having Juszczyk on the field gives Kyle the ability to show some looks and use some sets that aren't available to other teams. My hunch is that, as time goes on, people will come to appreciate Juice's role in the offense more and more.

I have no problem appreciating juszczyk and his role. He's overpaid for sure, but I've actually defended that one as well. But He's part of the concerning trend of paying a premium when i dont think it's required; he just isn't a marginal player like the others. I don't think he'll be worth the deal in comparison to other fullbacks and what they get paid, but I don't mind paying for the best, and we got one of them in him, so at least I understand. But I still don't think that's a premium that needed to be paid. 

Of course, I have no idea what's going on in FA, so absolutely could be wrong. But several of these guys I think we are way overshooting on what we would actually have to pay, and if we aren't, we are showing an unwillingness to move off

[rudyZ]

Maybe someone is good with the CBA rules and good with numbers, but what if we simply had to reach the spending floor, and the extra 7m McKinnon is making just wouldn't have been rolled over anyway? When I play NHL 18 on my ps4, and I'm rebuilding a team, and I have to reach the floor, I will give outrageous deals to some players who clearly don't deserve it. I'll trade a young guy on a rookie contract for an aged veteran way past his prime, just to spend enough money. I don't know, maybe there's some of that. I really don't know. The Devil has me on retainer (let's pretend I'm advocate, will you?!). Of course, there would have been better ways to reach the floor, like giving Staley a one year super bump in salary to thank him for his many years of service. Or maybe that's also in the cards to reach said floor. Maybe it takes a combination of a Staley bump and a McKinnon overpay to get to a point where no money will be left unrolled. I don't know, I don't do the maths, I'm a lawyer, dammit!

[Forge]

1 hour ago, rudyZ said:

Maybe someone is good with the CBA rules and good with numbers, but what if we simply had to reach the spending floor, and the extra 7m McKinnon is making just wouldn't have been rolled over anyway? When I play NHL 18 on my ps4, and I'm rebuilding a team, and I have to reach the floor, I will give outrageous deals to some players who clearly don't deserve it. I'll trade a young guy on a rookie contract for an aged veteran way past his prime, just to spend enough money. I don't know, maybe there's some of that. I really don't know. The Devil has me on retainer (let's pretend I'm advocate, will you?!). Of course, there would have been better ways to reach the floor, like giving Staley a one year super bump in salary to thank him for his many years of service. Or maybe that's also in the cards to reach said floor. Maybe it takes a combination of a Staley bump and a McKinnon overpay to get to a point where no money will be left unrolled. I don't know, I don't do the maths, I'm a lawyer, dammit!

Do you start off with an expansion team? That's what I do. I just created a new one a week ago. I gave them the most butt ugly uniforms ever. Some of the people in the expansion draft are kind of crazy. 

I don't think that we were in any danger of needing to hit the cap floor, but the rules are pretty convoluted about it. You only have to hit it once every 4 years

[J-ALL-DAY]

All this stuff about video games and expansion teams and this career mode makes me miss good ole dan .

[big9erfan]

11 hours ago, Ronnie's Pinky said:

I really don't think Juice is a marginal player, especially not in Shanahan's 21 personnel scheme where two halfbacks + 1 TE is the normal look. Look at Juszczyk's game logs and snap counts. With Garoppolo as the starter, Juice's snap counts/game were way up (184 out of his 394 total snaps were in the last five weeks), as were his receiving yards (averaged about 40 yards/game over the past 5 weeks after averaging about 10 yards/game over the first 11). We only got to see what Juice can do in the last five games of the season, and he looked really good. We already know he's an excellent blocker in both run and pass protection, with the mobility to succeed in Kyle's outside zone scheme. Let's just see what Juice can do for a full season with a real QB behind center before declaring him a "marginal player". Yeah, he's getting paid a lot more than any other fullback in the league, but that's because there are no other fullbacks in the league like him. He is in his own little category, and there's a reason the front office went out and got him. I think we'll see that reason much more clearly in 2018.

Here's a link to an article which talks about Shanahan's scheme. You'll notice what a large role Juice plays in a lot of these sets as a blocker. Having Juszczyk on the field gives Kyle the ability to show some looks and use some sets that aren't available to other teams. My hunch is that, as time goes on, people will come to appreciate Juice's role in the offense more and more.

I wonder though if he doesn't value them more than other teams do - so much so that he'll over-pay rather than risk losing them. When you're doing a hard negotiation you have to be willing to walk away from a bad deal. Desperation is a bad motivating factor in negotiations. You might lose out on that one deal, but in the end it pays off over the course of several deals.  I had that thought when we paid so much for Juice. Now it's nagging me some after what we paid for McKinnon. I'd like to think it's just a function of him wanting to fix things as fast as possible and so he's willing to pay whatever to get what he sees as key pieces. Maybe given more of the kind of roster he wants and given  mroe time he can do better deals when he wants to replace a guy or upgrade a position. What I mean is that if McKinnon is merely OK at what Shanny has in mind for him maybe that's enough for them to be more "choosy" about finding his replacement.

[757-NINER]

4 hours ago, big9erfan said:

I wonder though if he doesn't value them more than other teams do - so much so that he'll over-pay rather than risk losing them. When you're doing a hard negotiation you have to be willing to walk away from a bad deal. Desperation is a bad motivating factor in negotiations. You might lose out on that one deal, but in the end it pays off over the course of several deals.  I had that thought when we paid so much for Juice. Now it's nagging me some after what we paid for McKinnon. I'd like to think it's just a function of him wanting to fix things as fast as possible and so he's willing to pay whatever to get what he sees as key pieces. Maybe given more of the kind of roster he wants and given  mroe time he can do better deals when he wants to replace a guy or upgrade a position. What I mean is that if McKinnon is merely OK at what Shanny has in mind for him maybe that's enough for them to be more "choosy" about finding his replacement.

The way I see it, we set up deals that we can easily get out of after 1-2 years. For that flexibility, you have to give up some $ on the front end. And Im perfectly fine with that as long as Marthe/Lynch are content with it. Free agency is set up so you have to overspend some for good-great talent. But as long a s you sprinkle in some good value(Goodwin and Sherman's contracts) you'll be find. We have the ability to this now because of our cap space and having alot of young talent still on rookie deals. I think as some of that talent starts to re-sign, we'll look more in-house to replenish holes rather than through free agency. Once Lynch has a couple of drafts to replenish the talent pool/roster depth, that is...

[rudyZ]

7 hours ago, Forge said:

Do you start off with an expansion team? That's what I do. I just created a new one a week ago. I gave them the most butt ugly uniforms ever. Some of the people in the expansion draft are kind of crazy. 

I don't think that we were in any danger of needing to hit the cap floor, but the rules are pretty convoluted about it. You only have to hit it once every 4 years

Yeah, that's why I don't want to do the maths, or even research the rules. That's the kind of thing best left to Paraag.

I did an expansion team this year. I obviously recreated the Québec Nordiques, and it took a good decade of trials and errors before I managed to build a contender. And then I signed a free agent Connor McDavid and won 3 stanley cups in 4 years, which just wasn't fair at all for the rest of the league. But usually, I just take an established team and go through a major firesale and rebuilding process. It was very enjoyable to take the Canadiens and just trade away eeeeeeeeeeeveryone. A lot of overrated junk on there. Trading Carey Price for John Klingberg, then drafting Rasmus Dahlin... now that's a revamp.

[rudyZ]

5 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

All this stuff about video games and expansion teams and this career mode makes me miss good ole dan .

I miss n2te and his royal bloodlines.

[rudyZ]

5 hours ago, big9erfan said:

I wonder though if he doesn't value them more than other teams do - so much so that he'll over-pay rather than risk losing them. When you're doing a hard negotiation you have to be willing to walk away from a bad deal. Desperation is a bad motivating factor in negotiations. You might lose out on that one deal, but in the end it pays off over the course of several deals.  I had that thought when we paid so much for Juice. Now it's nagging me some after what we paid for McKinnon. I'd like to think it's just a function of him wanting to fix things as fast as possible and so he's willing to pay whatever to get what he sees as key pieces. Maybe given more of the kind of roster he wants and given  mroe time he can do better deals when he wants to replace a guy or upgrade a position. What I mean is that if McKinnon is merely OK at what Shanny has in mind for him maybe that's enough for them to be more "choosy" about finding his replacement.

I feel like Lynch is being the anti-Baalke, at this point. He would never budge from his price, to the point of losing good players and not signing players who could have made a difference. At least we're getting players we want, now. We're overpaying, but we're not letting the roster slowly deteriorate.

[big9erfan]

29 minutes ago, rudyZ said:

I feel like Lynch is being the anti-Baalke, at this point. He would never budge from his price, to the point of losing good players and not signing players who could have made a difference. At least we're getting players we want, now. We're overpaying, but we're not letting the roster slowly deteriorate.

Well said!

[Ronnie's Pinky]

23 hours ago, Forge said:

I have no problem appreciating juszczyk and his role. He's overpaid for sure, but I've actually defended that one as well. But He's part of the concerning trend of paying a premium when i dont think it's required; he just isn't a marginal player like the others. I don't think he'll be worth the deal in comparison to other fullbacks and what they get paid, but I don't mind paying for the best, and we got one of them in him, so at least I understand. But I still don't think that's a premium that needed to be paid. 

Of course, I have no idea what's going on in FA, so absolutely could be wrong. But several of these guys I think we are way overshooting on what we would actually have to pay, and if we aren't, we are showing an unwillingness to move off

I'm serious that I think there may have been an issue of rolling cap money. They're already set to roll 40+ million into next season, as it is. At some point, you have to spend the money. The present value of money is always greater than its future value.

They weren't "overshooting" and bidding against themselves with either Juice or McKinnon. Both had other suitors, and the 49ers simply put in the highest bid. Both are pricey, but both are also outstanding system fits (and, with Richburg and Garoppolo, the last ones necessary on offense, I might add). This offense, if healthy, is ready to hum. The niners would have to get a lot more production at EDGE than I expect them to in order to be an actual contender this season, but they're not really that far off if they can stay relatively healthy.

[Forge]

So apparently, the deal for Jordan Matthews was 1 year, 1 million with only 170K guaranteed. Obviously the NFL is not big on Jordan Matthews.