WEEK 15: BENGALS AT BRONCO'S / ONE DOWN, FOUR TO GO

[AKRNA]

it's been a long time since we were still in the hunt at this time of year. Nice feeling huh?

I don't know much about the Bengals so I'll leave it to  you. 

Once again, let Vic do his thing on defense. We'll be fine there. Has anyone noticed how rapidly Vic adapts? Last week it seemed like we were struggling in the first half. Second half we just shut them down. Lets just hope that continues.

I was bitching a lot about Shurmur early last week. After the first couple of drives he just went brain dead. Then he calls a great 2nd half. Who knows what to expect. Our OL run blocking is fun to watch. Meinerz is a riot. There's not much disguised about our run game, we're just beating people at the LOS. Our pass blocking is getting better weekly. One thing I'd like to see is more running on obvious passing downs. When teams drop to 6 or less in the box we should really attack them. Do it a few times and they'll be forced to play more straight up.

Anyway, as long as I'm cobbling together these questionable gems we're in good shape playoff wise. 

 

[paul-mac]

Pretty much a toss up game here. I like the Broncos at home, but it could go either way.

 

Denver 20

Cincinnati 17

[Broncofan]

Since we haven't faced CIN since b4 Burrow was a drafted, having watched about 5 CIN games, here's my breakdown:

DEN O vs. CIN D - This game is a really good litmus test for our D, assuming Joe Mixon's limited play was due to non-Covid illness (he popped up on report on Fri/Sat, and then split snaps with Perine).   Joe Burrow's having an excellent season, albeit facing a lot of pressure, and still being a little too-TO prone (his 14 INT's are the one significant blemish on what's been a very successful comeback season post-ACL).    Their top 3 WR's are excellent, and as mentioned, they have 2 pass catching backs, and a serviceable TE.    Their main weakness is their OL, although Burrow helps their play a lot (as does Mixon in the run game).    The OL's inability to protect at key moments (rank 29th by DVOA in pass protection) and get pushed around in the power run game (31st in power run game) is the only reason they're not a top 10 O IMO (and I suspect it will be their point of emphasis draft/FA-wise next year, now that they have their skill positions addressed - kind of *ss-backwards approach-wise, but it's really their only area left on O).   It also shows how good Burrow & Mixon are (because CIN ranks 18th in pass game / 20th in run game by DVOA, it's more Burrow/Mixon creating opps over the OL's play).   Watching Mixon & Javonte Williams should be a RB fan's treat, assuming Mixon is healthy.   I should note that the CIN OL's play was particularly awful when they were missing T Riley Reiff and C Trey Hopkins vs. LAC - that's a mirage game.   They played much better last week, and overall they've been improving (but this is still the area for CIN to fix, if they want to surge into true  sustained contender status).

CIN O vs. DEN D - On the flip side, the Bengals' D remains a more balanced unit.  Their D line is a top 10 unit in pass rush by DVOA (Trey Hendrickson having an amazing year & Sam Hubbard plays a decent Robin role), and their pass coverage limits the production of every position to below average, except TE.   Their run D grades out at around top 10 (although it is more vulnerable to power than zone run schemes) - their top 5 status in overall yards is a bit deceptive, since they've faced more pass-heavy scripts in their games (especially predicated by injuries to their secondary of late).    Their pass D has really improved with the additions of Awuzie & Apple (the latter who's really resurrected his career after major disappointment in NYG & NO).    Overall, adding DJ Reader & Larry Ogbujobi on the DL and Awuzie & Apple to the D has worked wonders with stalwarts like Jessie Bates at safety (although dropping his likely pick 6 at the end of the 4Q was a gamechanger vs. SF last week, look for him to bounce back in what's been a really strong season) & Logan Wilson at ILB. 

INTANGIBLES - The other intangibles lean to CIN, albeit not as much because of how good they are there - but how dreadful we are.   ST it's hard to be as bad as we are, and CIN at 15th enjoys a distinct advantage in every area over us, still mired at 29th (DVOA ranks).   Game management-wise, HC Zac Taylor hasn't been as much of an asset as hoped, and frankly, nearly cost them games early in the season with poor game management (the TNF JAX game was a prime example), but it's been nothing close to Fangio's weaknesses in game management.   

INJURY REPORT - Injury-wise, the key potential absence for CIN is Wilson - seems iffy that he'll play this week, which would be a huge break, he's a tackling machine with great instincts, and really their playcaller on D.   The other key CIN player is Mixon - but it really sounds like he just had a non-covid flu-like illness, I'd expect he should be close to 100 percent. 

Overall, CIN is unlucky to be at 7-6 - they thoroughly outplayed SF last week, but 2 muffed punts, and Taylor's lack of willingness to exploit SF's secondary weaknesses more, along with Bates' dropped pick 6 late in the game, cost them a W they truly deserved.   They've had signature dismantlings of BAL & PIT, but lost a "brain cramp, didn't come out to play" L to NYJ and a -3 TO game vs. CHI that resulted in a L.    Their 7-6 record is likely the lowest-end probability, whereas our 7-6 is truly a maxed-out record (we could have won the CLE game, but losing it against such a depleted team, if they weren't ravaged by injury, likely would have dismantled us, given what we know about our path to W's).

DEN'S PATH TO W - Ultimately, the path for a DEN W will sound familiar - win the TO game to balance the difference in talent, and then hope our D can limit the CIN's O production.   It gets stickier though with CIN's run D (although no Logan Wilson makes that a LOT easier).   Pass-game wise, the one area CIN can be exploited is at TE - so this is a game where Shurmur has to target Fant, and Fant has to come up big.     

CIN's PATHS to W - The CIN paths to W are more diverse - Burrow exploiting the matchups for the weakest CB with his Chase-Higgins-Boyd matchups, and Mixon able to operate in space.   Uzomah isn't as much of a seam-buster as a safety valve (but he's busted huge plays uncovered because of the attention the big 3 WR's receive).   Their run D is decent, and their pass rush can expose bad T play in a big way.    Plus they should enjoy a ST edge.   Finally, the most ominous stat - Fangio is 1-22 when trailing at halftime.   That's a reflection of how bad our O is at keeping up in shootouts or coming back.  

The line opened with CIN as the favorite, but public money has shifted this to a DEN slight edge - basically a pick' em at this stage (from CIN -2 to DEN -1.5).    In a TO-neutral game, I think this is a 24-20 W for CIN.       Certainly a game that DEN can win, but with the better QB, more balanced attack, and a D that's really improved, and can really create problems if they get ahead.  If they can put up 24+ pts, we just haven't shown much ability to hang with that against quality teams.

Either way, there's no way around how important this game is - win it, it's still a long path, but a clearer path to the playoffs.   Lose it, and the tiebreakers against the hopefuls look awful, with our L's to all 4 AFCN teams (since conference record is 2nd tiebreaker after H2H with other non-AFCW teams).    As I've said elsewhere, I'm just glad we're playing meaningful games in December, it only helps make us look appealing to next year's elite QB potential trade group.    No major injuries to our young core, watch them progress, everything else is gravy.

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Broncofan

[bMiller031]

This game will be decided in the first quarter. We get a lead, we have a chance. Fall behind by 10 early, stick a fork in us.

I think we squeak it out or get walloped but if I can only pick one, 23-17 us.

[Dbrog24]

I've actually followed the Bangles pretty close this year. I've been quite surprised with their O-Line. I'm not saying it's great but it's good enough for a smart QB like Burrow to let him get his reads. It's also been absolutely INSANE seeing his long ball connections with Chase and at times Higgins, something that we are actually pretty poor at defending. Chase specifically is an issue with his ability to break tackles (another thing we have struggled with) and overall special talents of getting free. I could easily see Burrow throwing over the top of us and forcing some pass interferences or flat out TDs. Mixon is a surprisingly good runner as Broncofan mentioned. If he's playing, we will get to see if we still have issues with defending the run. I'm hopeful the emergence of Browning, Sterns, and of course the trade for Young will help us here. I could see Uzomah having a big game too. He's been streaky this year but is a strong and tall back with decent hands which again is something we struggle with in our Zone.

Luckily, their defense isn't exactly great. It certainly could end up being a "get right" game for Teddy cause they won't have an answer for Jeudy or our tight ends if we could magically find a way to utilize them. Overall I think this will be an extremely tough game for us because I don't think Vics schemes will hold them under 21. They really are that talented on O and again, Burrow has been very impressive at adapting to what coaches throw at him. They will really test us (more specifically Shurmur) if they get an initial lead. We will need to trust Williams and sprinkle in some special plays from Teddy...that's what I feel it will take to have a chance. 

IF we win, I expect something like 24-21 Broncos. If not, it could get ugly quick

[Broncofan]

Losing Dre'mont would be a major loss vs. CIN's O.    Sterns/Massie too, but no word on how iffy this is, or just managing reps with a less serious injury - Wed injury reports aren't that predictive for inactives - but Fangio calling Dre'mont 50-50 is pretty concerning.   I don't think Kareem will be playing, neck issues are never good.

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, Dbrog24 said:

I've actually followed the Bangles pretty close this year. I've been quite surprised with their O-Line. I'm not saying it's great but it's good enough for a smart QB like Burrow to let him get his reads. It's also been absolutely INSANE seeing his long ball connections with Chase and at times Higgins, something that we are actually pretty poor at defending. Chase specifically is an issue with his ability to break tackles (another thing we have struggled with) and overall special talents of getting free. I could easily see Burrow throwing over the top of us and forcing some pass interferences or flat out TDs. Mixon is a surprisingly good runner as Broncofan mentioned. If he's playing, we will get to see if we still have issues with defending the run. I'm hopeful the emergence of Browning, Sterns, and of course the trade for Young will help us here. I could see Uzomah having a big game too. He's been streaky this year but is a strong and tall back with decent hands which again is something we struggle with in our Zone.

Luckily, their defense isn't exactly great. It certainly could end up being a "get right" game for Teddy cause they won't have an answer for Jeudy or our tight ends if we could magically find a way to utilize them. Overall I think this will be an extremely tough game for us because I don't think Vics schemes will hold them under 21. They really are that talented on O and again, Burrow has been very impressive at adapting to what coaches throw at him. They will really test us (more specifically Shurmur) if they get an initial lead. We will need to trust Williams and sprinkle in some special plays from Teddy...that's what I feel it will take to have a chance. 

IF we win, I expect something like 24-21 Broncos. If not, it could get ugly quick

I think it's a testament to how good of a QB Burrow is vs. pressure.   I think he is only trailing Justin Herbert in that regard (he was leading first 2 months)

    

 

(Included the Herbert factoid to show how impressive those 2 are)... it comes with the double edged sword of 14 picks, though.   If CIN improves their OL play, CIN is a real 2022 dark horse to make a leap into elite territory (and they can actually win the AFCN this year, even with L's their last 2 weeks).

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Broncofan

[Dbrog24]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

I think it's a testament to how good of a QB Burrow is vs. pressure.   I think he is only trailing Justin Herbert in that regard (he was leading first 2 months)

(Included the Herbert factoid to show how impressive those 2 are)... it comes with the double edged sword of 14 picks, though.   If CIN improves their OL play, CIN is a real 2022 dark horse to make a leap into elite territory (and they can actually win the NFCN this year, even with L's their last 2 weeks).

 

Absolutely. This is why I'm harping on Burrow's intelligence and ability to read defenses quickly, which is highly impressive for such a young player. I truly think he can carve us up if we make a lot of the same mistakes we have been. Certainly looking forward for Cinci, if they can shore up that OL play and continue to improve their defense, I honestly think they will be a perennial Superbowl contender or at least conference championship threat. They are really that close.

[The Helicopter]

The Broncos have pulled out some happy endings with Cincy…may the good fortune continue.

[lomaxgrUK]

Broncos are a 3 point favourite on my usual betting site - that is really, really surprising. Have they got players on the COVID list?

[paul-mac]

18 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Broncos are a 3 point favourite on my usual betting site - that is really, really surprising. Have they got players on the COVID list?

3 points is the usual home advantage so when you see the Broncos as a 3-point favourite, they’re saying that they view the Broncos and the Bengals as evenly matched teams. I think that’s a valid assumption, don’t you? 

[lomaxgrUK]

3 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

3 points is the usual home advantage so when you see the Broncos as a 3-point favourite, they’re saying that they view the Broncos and the Bengals as evenly matched teams. I think that’s a valid assumption, don’t you? 

I certainly don't think these two teams are equal (when healthy). Why? Because there is a very significant gap at the most important position.

[Broncofan]

Wow Sutton, terrible drop.  Drive killer.

[bMiller031]

I’m not opposed to MG3 coming back on a team-friendly deal

[AKRNA]

15 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

I’m not opposed to MG3 coming back on a team-friendly deal

I would love that. I think it will happen.