Week 17 SNF Vikings @ Packers: Postgame - Packers WIN 37-10, CLINCH #1 seed!

[skibrett15]

50 minutes ago, Cpdaly23 said:

The point I was making is that because of the heavy impact of COVID for ALL teams, using data that historically points to playoff success is less relevant because the game to game variance re: availability is higher. 

I won't argue that it's exactly the same, but 32 teams played 15 games.  It's as good of a sample as you'll get this year.  Nobody is saying the Jags are terrible but Covid variance makes that data useless.  The Jags are obviously terrible. 

Are you willing to draw a line that the 15 games worth of results mean nothing looking forward to the playoffs?

I haven't seen any reasoned arguments that discount or excuse the poor performance by the defense outside of NO is skewing the result (a little, but the finding is the same even with the game removed).

Good defenses don't allow 30 to Baltimore and Minnesota.  Good defenses don't allow over 2 points/drive.  Ergo, the Packers don't have a good Defense? 

Do folks think it's good enough to win an NFC championship?  I'm leaning no but they still have a chance to improve over the next 4 weeks

[Striker]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

This team is in the top 10 of DVOA, top 8 of weighted DVOA (which excludes week 1), they would not be an outlier. 

I'm looking at defense DVOA, not overall. The offense is definitely lifting the defense and abysmal special teams. We'll need to have improvement from at least one of those areas (likely from injured players returning) because it's currently not sustainable.

[packfanfb]

1 minute ago, Striker said:

I'm looking at defense DVOA, not overall. The offense is definitely lifting the defense and abysmal special teams. We'll need to have improvement from at least one of those areas (likely from injured players returning) because it's currently not sustainable.

In other words, same ****, different year in Green Bay, lol. 

[packfanfb]

Hopefully it's not troublesome that MVS wasn't activated off the COVID list today. He's been on it since December 21 (now 8 days) and I thought he would be activated today given the new 5-day rule. That can only mean he has symptoms and they are still present.

MVS has had some big moments against the Vikings the past two seasons and we need him Sunday. 

[Packerraymond]

2 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I won't argue that it's exactly the same, but 32 teams played 15 games.  It's as good of a sample as you'll get this year.  Nobody is saying the Jags are terrible but Covid variance makes that data useless.  The Jags are obviously terrible. 

Are you willing to draw a line that the 15 games worth of results mean nothing looking forward to the playoffs?

I haven't seen any reasoned arguments that discount or excuse the poor performance by the defense outside of NO is skewing the result (a little, but the finding is the same even with the game removed).

Good defenses don't allow 30 to Baltimore and Minnesota.  Good defenses don't allow over 2 points/drive.  Ergo, the Packers don't have a good Defense? 

Do folks think it's good enough to win an NFC championship?  I'm leaning no but they still have a chance to improve over the next 4 weeks

Do good defenses allow 13 to KC ? 21 to the Cards ? We shutdown the Rams until garbage time. 

They have the Vikings at like 13th for defensive DVOA, that right there is enough to crinkle up the rankings and toss them in the trash.

I don't think they're weighing takeaways heavily enough in their formula. 

Up until the 4th Q of the Ravens game, yes this defense has been excellent. With two main issues, the first drive of every game, and we simultaneously have been shutting down in the 4th Q along with the offense. We tighten that up, we're fine. 

[Packerraymond]

Just now, packfanfb said:

Hopefully it's not troublesome that MVS wasn't activated off the COVID list today. He's been on it since December 21 (now 8 days) and I thought he would be activated today given the new 5-day rule. That can only mean he has symptoms and they are still present.

MVS has had some big moments against the Vikings the past two seasons and we need him Sunday. 

Wouldn't look too far into it, we've seemed to give guys on the Covid list the following week "off" of practice. Just did it with Clark. I'd imagine MVS is focusing on progressive cardio training with the rehab team versus going outside and practicing in the cold. 

[squire12]

47 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

 

I don't think they're weighing takeaways heavily enough in their formula

Relying on turnovers for the defense being good enough in the playoffs seems like a recipe for disaster 

[Packerraymond]

2 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Relying on turnovers for the defense being good enough in the playoffs seems like a recipe for disaster 

Did we not win it all in 2010 that way? Pick vs the Eagles sealed that game. Pick versus the Falcons flipped that game, pick versus the Bears gave us the clinching score, then pick in the red zone actually sealed the game when they caught back up, pick in the SB gives us the 14-0 lead.

[squire12]

3 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Did we not win it all in 2010 that way? Pick vs the Eagles sealed that game. Pick versus the Falcons flipped that game, pick versus the Bears gave us the clinching score, then pick in the red zone actually sealed the game when they caught back up, pick in the SB gives us the 14-0 lead.

2010 defense was #2 .  The turnovers were additional to that defenses ability to get stops consistently 

[Striker]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Do good defenses allow 13 to KC ? 21 to the Cards ? We shutdown the Rams until garbage time. 

They have the Vikings at like 13th for defensive DVOA, that right there is enough to crinkle up the rankings and toss them in the trash.

I don't think they're weighing takeaways heavily enough in their formula. 

Up until the 4th Q of the Ravens game, yes this defense has been excellent. With two main issues, the first drive of every game, and we simultaneously have been shutting down in the 4th Q along with the offense. We tighten that up, we're fine. 

The 13th through 21st teams are all pretty close. Most of those teams are alright in one element of defense while they are abysmal in another.

The Packers D hasn't necessarily been excellent. They've shown some ceiling games vs. KC and Seattle. But we've also seen some disturbing trends (big play breakdowns vs. CIN/MIN/AZ/CLE/CHI/LAR). They were an AJ Green brain fart from allowing a 90+ yard TD drive to the Cardinals and a "why put the ball in Mayfield's hands when Chubb is rushing for 7.4 yards/carry" moment from blowing it vs. CLE.

There is room for improvement and the loss of two All-Pros is without a doubt impacting their ceiling...but let's not pretend that this D is excellent in its current state.

16 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Did we not win it all in 2010 that way? Pick vs the Eagles sealed that game. Pick versus the Falcons flipped that game, pick versus the Bears gave us the clinching score, then pick in the red zone actually sealed the game when they caught back up, pick in the SB gives us the 14-0 lead.

That team was also #2 in DVOA and allowed 7, 27 (Patriots), 17, and 3 points to close out the season and then only allowed 16 vs the Eagles, 14 vs. the Falcons (7 of those points came in the fourth quarter with the game WAY put away), 14 vs. the Bears, and 25 points vs. the Steelers.

That team not only forced turnovers but it got opposing offenses off the field. This Packers defense is...not doing that so much right now.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Striker

[packfanfb]

Current Packers Covid List for Week 17: (minus PS and IR players)

MVS (Dec. 21) - eligible to come off list today

Kevin King (Dec. 25) - eligible to come off list Dec. 30

Shemar Jean-Charles (Dec. 25) - eligible to come off list Dec. 30

Amari Rodgers (Dec. 27)- eligible to come off list Jan. 1 

Tipa Galeai (Dec. 27)- eligible to come off list Jan. 1 

Ben Braden (Dec. 27) - eligible to come off list Jan. 1 

Oren Burks (Dec. 28)- eligible to come off list Jan. 2 (Game day)

Marcedes Lews (Dec. 28) - eligible to come off list Jan. 2 (Game day)

This doesn't include the new additions which could include Keke, Lancaster, Black and Davis (all would be out unless they can test out)

[Shanedorf]

24 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Relying on turnovers for the defense being good enough in the playoffs seems like a recipe for disaster 

its what we got. The Packers 2021 Defense is good enough to win a Title if the offense plays to their ability and the defense creates some turnovers
In a perfect world, you'd love to have it all. But we don't. So the next question is: Is this 2021 team capable of creating turnovers ?
The answer so far has been yes. Currently GB is tied for 6th in the league in defensive turnovers/ game. Hoping they continue to create TO's in the playoffs isn't an unreasonable stance

link:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/takeaways-per-game

Edited December 29, 2021 by Shanedorf

[packfanfb]

Bojo on the COVID list.

[Old Guy]

1 hour ago, FAH1223 said:

 

 

Too bad Gute doesn't make any in season moves! 

[Striker]

3 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Bojo on the COVID list.

Just never punt.