Draft Talk: Giants @ 1.5 & 1.7

[y*so*blu]

On 3/7/2022 at 8:43 PM, w4rrior723 said:

Admittedly, I don't know that much about Wink's defense. But I find it hard to believe that a DB is more valuable than a stud pass-rusher in any scheme. Guys like Aaron Donald, TJ Watt, Micah Parsons etc are massively disruptive no matter the scheme. I'd love to hear what X's and O's can make a DB have more of an impact than those kind of guys.

His defense is all about heavy blitzing, which relies on a strong secondary that can play press man and bottle up receivers one on one until the rush gets there. When his d-backs in Baltimore got hurt, that scheme lost its effectiveness.

I agree that the rushers are valuable, but not necessarily the best use of our high first-round picks. I'd rather trade down to the middle of the round and get a Travon Walker, or just wait for Cameron Thomas. It's a fairly deep class. Plus we have Leonard Williams who we paid a ton for, so let's put a better nose tackle out there with him and see what he can do under Wink.

One safety who hasn't been mentioned yet is Lewis Cine. I can imagine Wink salivating at these highlights (music NSFW).

He's a violent downhill tackler who breaks up passes and slams fearlessly into charging RBs. Gaining a few pounds would help him put even more behind his hits. If we don't get Kyle Hamilton, I'd consider taking Cine in the 2nd round.

Edited March 9, 2022 by y*so*blu

[minutemancl]

On 3/7/2022 at 9:43 PM, w4rrior723 said:

Admittedly, I don't know that much about Wink's defense. But I find it hard to believe that a DB is more valuable than a stud pass-rusher in any scheme. Guys like Aaron Donald, TJ Watt, Micah Parsons etc are massively disruptive no matter the scheme. I'd love to hear what X's and O's can make a DB have more of an impact than those kind of guys.

It is true that a lockdown DB is more valuable in Wink's scheme than a stud pass rusher, and there is a strong argument that it is more valuable in any scheme (statistics show it is more likely to have a consistently good cover guy than a consistently productive sack guy), but that is a different conversation.

The Xs and Os in Wink's scheme that make a DB more valuable is the fact that he is able to generate pressure with anyone. He doesn't rely on singular players to win matchups to get pressure; the pressure he generates is a result of his scheme. However, that pressure can really only be effectively generated if you've got guys on the back end who can match up in man reliably.

[minutemancl]

Schoen said if he could find 7 guys he likes, he'll sleep well at night and stay at 5 and 7. I've got my 7.

Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeux, Travon Walker, Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, Sauce Gardner, Kyle Hamilton.

Take any 2 of those guys, ideally ones that play different positions (we've got OL, EDGE, and DB represented here), and I'm happy.

If we don't get a shot at Neal or Ekwonu at 5 or 7, I'm ok not taking an OL in the first (provided we don't trade back). I think there are a lot of potential starting OL later in the draft. I've soured on Charles Cross recently.

[w4rrior723]

@y*so*blu @minutemanclI've read that he likes to blitz, but wouldn't you rather have dominant pass rushers on the edge and interior so you don't have to reassign other players to pass rush? That's what made the 07 and 11 Giants so strong. They were able to create tons of pressure with their front 4, so they were able to use other 7 guys to cover. I'm sure Wink is very creative with his blitz schemes, but wouldn't it STILL be better to have a dominant pass-rusher in the front line so he either doesn't have to blitz someone else, or so there even more pressure? Honestly, feel free to tell me I'm dumb. I'm not the smartest football guy out there. But thinking about this logically, it seems like dominant pass rushers are the most valuable asset on defense.

[y*so*blu]

5 minutes ago, w4rrior723 said:

@y*so*blu @minutemanclI've read that he likes to blitz, but wouldn't you rather have dominant pass rushers on the edge and interior so you don't have to reassign other players to pass rush? That's what made the 07 and 11 Giants so strong. They were able to create tons of pressure with their front 4, so they were able to use other 7 guys to cover. I'm sure Wink is very creative with his blitz schemes, but wouldn't it STILL be better to have a dominant pass-rusher in the front line so he either doesn't have to blitz someone else, or so there even more pressure? Honestly, feel free to tell me I'm dumb. I'm not the smartest football guy out there. But thinking about this logically, it seems like dominant pass rushers are the most valuable asset on defense.

Obviously your goal is to have a strong secondary AND some dominant pass rushers, no matter what kind of scheme you run. I fully expect us to draft at least one EDGE guy. I'm just saying, don't be surprised if Wink and Daboll decide to address the secondary first and foremost. Especially with both Peppers and Bradberry likely to be gone.

[w4rrior723]

7 minutes ago, y*so*blu said:

Obviously your goal is to have a strong secondary AND some dominant pass rushers, no matter what kind of scheme you run. I fully expect us to draft at least one EDGE guy. I'm just saying, don't be surprised if Wink and Daboll decide to address the secondary first and foremost. Especially with both Peppers and Bradberry likely to be gone.

Fair point. I didn't mean to imply that DBs aren't important. Of course they are. It just seems like; if you have one shot to take an elite prospect on defense - a pass rusher would have the highest impact regardless of scheme because they are constantly disrupting things. Especially since we don't have any elite pass rushers on the roster right now. I'm also not saying those of you are wrong about predicting we will take a DB. I'm just not sure if they are more more valuable than pass rushers. That's why pass rushers are the highest paid defenders and typically taken at the top of the draft.

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by w4rrior723

[y*so*blu]

Think there's any chance we get Kyle Hamilton at 5 and Sauce Gardner at 7? It's been happening to me in mocks lately, but you know how those are. (Naturally I'm addressing EDGE too; Boye Mafe is one probable 3rd rounder I have my eye on.)

Draft crushes so far: Darian Kinnard from Kentucky, Alec Pierce and Jerome Ford from Cincinnati, and John Ridgeway from Arkansas. Would love to see any of those guys in blue.

[YogiBiz]

18 hours ago, y*so*blu said:

Think there's any chance we get Kyle Hamilton at 5 and Sauce Gardner at 7? It's been happening to me in mocks lately, but you know how those are. (Naturally I'm addressing EDGE too; Boye Mafe is one probable 3rd rounder I have my eye on.)

Draft crushes so far: Darian Kinnard from Kentucky, Alec Pierce and Jerome Ford from Cincinnati, and John Ridgeway from Arkansas. Would love to see any of those guys in blue.

I wanted Boye too but after his offseason performances I find it hard to believe he makes it out of the top 40

 

To answer your question. Yes I think it’s possible, not likely cause I think Houston takes Hamilton. Cause they are so bad no one will bat an eye if they just take the most talented player available regardless of position. 

Edited March 13, 2022 by YogiBiz

[minutemancl]

On 3/12/2022 at 7:08 PM, y*so*blu said:

Think there's any chance we get Kyle Hamilton at 5 and Sauce Gardner at 7? It's been happening to me in mocks lately, but you know how those are. (Naturally I'm addressing EDGE too; Boye Mafe is one probable 3rd rounder I have my eye on.)

Draft crushes so far: Darian Kinnard from Kentucky, Alec Pierce and Jerome Ford from Cincinnati, and John Ridgeway from Arkansas. Would love to see any of those guys in blue.

I think we will have a chance at both of those guys, but I don't think we take both. I wouldn't be opposed to it though, depending on who was available otherwise.

Alec Pierce is a guy I'm taking with our first 3rd round pick in every mock draft I've done lately. There are tons of talented receivers in this draft, and I think Pierce will slip through the cracks. He's really impressive.

[y*so*blu]

7 hours ago, minutemancl said:

I think we will have a chance at both of those guys, but I don't think we take both. I wouldn't be opposed to it though, depending on who was available otherwise.

Alec Pierce is a guy I'm taking with our first 3rd round pick in every mock draft I've done lately. There are tons of talented receivers in this draft, and I think Pierce will slip through the cracks. He's really impressive.

Just so many possibilities at that #5 pick. If both Neal and Ekwonu are gone but we get a d-back we really want like Hamilton or Gardner, I might trade down to the late 1st/early 2nd to snap up Kinnard or Raimann at OT. From there I take BPA, then McBride at TE and Pierce at WR.

EDGE is important, but not so important that we can't wait for a Sam Williams (who had like 13 sacks) or a Tyreke Smith (who blew up the backfield despite being held constantly) in the 4th round. From there I go nose tackle, RB another OT, and maybe even Matt Araiza. If you have to punt it's nice to have a guy with a monster leg who can tackle.

Edited March 16, 2022 by y*so*blu

[minutemancl]

14 hours ago, y*so*blu said:

Just so many possibilities at that #5 pick. If both Neal and Ekwonu are gone but we get a d-back we really want like Hamilton or Gardner, I might trade down to the late 1st/early 2nd to snap up Kinnard or Raimann at OT. From there I take BPA, then McBride at TE and Pierce at WR.

EDGE is important, but not so important that we can't wait for a Sam Williams (who had like 13 sacks) or a Tyreke Smith (who blew up the backfield despite being held constantly) in the 4th round. From there I go nose tackle, RB another OT, and maybe even Matt Araiza. If you have to punt it's nice to have a guy with a monster leg who can tackle.

Trading down is super attractive to me if Neal, Ekwonu, Hutchinson, and Thibs are gone at 5. Penning would be a great pick if we trade back into the late teens, while I'd love Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson if we moved back into the 20s. 

We need to draft a TE this year. I know Trey Mcbride is the big name, but I really like Jake Ferguson and Evan Dulcich. Both guys should go later than Mcbride.

[y*so*blu]

2 hours ago, minutemancl said:

Trading down is super attractive to me if Neal, Ekwonu, Hutchinson, and Thibs are gone at 5. Penning would be a great pick if we trade back into the late teens, while I'd love Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson if we moved back into the 20s. 

We need to draft a TE this year. I know Trey Mcbride is the big name, but I really like Jake Ferguson and Evan Dulcich. Both guys should go later than Mcbride.

Yes, both of them are great prospects. I would be very happy if we took Ferguson because he does pretty much everything you want a TE to do. The only strike against Dulcich is that he seldom had to block in UCLA's scheme so we don't know how good he is at it.

I hear that Daboll's offense doesn't depend much on that position, but selfishly, I want us to get a good one and use him to the fullest. I hated watching opposing teams' TEs trample all over us last year.

[YogiBiz]

On 3/17/2022 at 9:37 AM, minutemancl said:

Trading down is super attractive to me if Neal, Ekwonu, Hutchinson, and Thibs are gone at 5. Penning would be a great pick if we trade back into the late teens, while I'd love Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson if we moved back into the 20s. 

We need to draft a TE this year. I know Trey Mcbride is the big name, but I really like Jake Ferguson and Evan Dulcich. Both guys should go later than Mcbride.

Penning is a really good OT prospect and expecting him to be available in the teens is how you lose out on talent. 

I think there’s a real chance Green falls to our pick in round 2. A lot of teams in the 20s that were look g for IOL help signed players at the positions. But outside of those two this draft is loaded with Guards  

Cade Otton should definitely be TE1. Bigger stronger faster and a better blocker than McBride. Oh yeah he had less drops this year against better competition. And he got into the end zone more than just once this year.  That is not say McBride is a slouch either 

Edited March 20, 2022 by YogiBiz

[minutemancl]

I'm working on a hypothesis and wondering what you guys think. It is more of a philosophical/process take about the draft.

I there needs to be more nuance around trading up and trading down. I think the normal take of "trading up bad, trading down good" is mostly correct, but doesn't tell the whole story. The take I have is that it matters who you move up for in trade ups, and in trade ups and downs, where you move.

I think trade ups in the first round, specifically and especially, should only be done for QBs with very few, if any, exceptions. QB value, combined with the relative rarity of good ones and the impact they can have on your team, makes it appropriate to trade up for them early. No other single player can give you the value that a good QB can give you.

Meanwhile, I think trading up into and in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, using current year capital mostly, is a good move. I think the value in most drafts lies in these rounds. If you look at the NFL draft trade value chart (which, while not followed to a T, is still a good barometer on pick value that is applicable in trades even today), pick value drops significantly after the first 21 picks. While the difference between picks 3 and 4 for instance is 400 points, the difference between picks 21 and 22 is 20 points. The difference between 39 and 40 is 10 points. For reference, 20 points is the value of a late 5th and 10 is the value of a mid-6th. While having more darts to throw at the board is definitely important, throwing 5 darts at the board in the 5th round is significantly less valuable than 2 to throw in the 2nd. 

Not totally fleshed out yet, but the gist of it is that the more 2nd and 3rd round picks you can accumulate, by trading back in the 1st and trading up with your later picks, the better you are positioned to get impact players in the draft. I'd like to try to nail down the range of picks you want to situate yourself in, but I'd have to look at and analyze a lot of historical data for that.

[Acgott]

55 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

Not totally fleshed out yet, but the gist of it is that the more 2nd and 3rd round picks you can accumulate, by trading back in the 1st and trading up with your later picks, the better you are positioned to get impact players in the draft. I'd like to try to nail down the range of picks you want to situate yourself in, but I'd have to look at and analyze a lot of historical data for that.

All your points make sense, but it so hard to use the point chart nowadays. Typically it’s talked about as the first hundred picks and then after that the drop off. It also depends on the team as well.

Team A- 1.10 (1,300)

Team B- 2.33 (580), 2.34 (560), 2.48 (420) = 1560

Say each player played to their draft position. Team B wins the trade by a high 3rd, but is anyone calling them a winner? Is one consistent pro bowler worse than 3 solid players? Does this trade make sense for both the Bucs and Giants? Bucs could be one player away, Giants looking to rebuild their whole team. What does each draft board looking like? Do the Giants have more  ranked in their tier 2 group than tier 1. The draft is so fluid, it’s so hard to nail down a theory like this.