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Does Defense Win Championships?


Carmen Cygni

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39 minutes ago, Carmen Cygni said:

But, as has been pointed out many times here in this thread, it's extremely rare for any great QB to win with simply competent defensive play in the postseason. It may be a decent formula to win regular season games, but merely competent defensive play through out the playoffs will not garner a championship. 

It's hard to disagree with this. I've tried to think of a recent superbowl winner with only a competent D, and I can't. A defense that wins turnovers is more than just competent, and for me, that's the most important aspect. See Saints and see Patriots. 

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4 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

I don't disagree with that from a game to game basis but I don't think it affects the overall numbers all that much. Also I understand that PPG is flawed and i'm not really arguing the fact that it is perfect. If a team only scores 16 points against a defense I frankly don't care what field position that offense was given. The ultimate goal of a defense is to not give up points. That goal doesn't change whether they have to play from there own 20 or the opponents 1 yard line.  Same goes for the offense. 

In the playoffs you need both your offense and defense most likely to come up big. They may not necessarily have to be elite but you need both to do there part. Special teams I think as long as your hitting makeable field goals, not turning the ball over, and not shanking punts consistently which almost all NFL teams can do you is secondary. 

Ok lets say you have a great offense and a great special teams but a mediocre defense. Your offense jumps out to a lead and are holding onto the ball 5-7 mins per drive. The opposing team at some point by the 2nd quarter is now trying to play catch up and is back on their end of the field with limited options. 

How many games have the Patriots won just because they jumped out to a lead and had the other team playing catch up all game while the special teams was pinning them back? Probably alot. 

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17 minutes ago, Carmen Cygni said:

I get it, it's a team game, the ultimate team game in fact. It's well understood that each one of the team's three units can greatly effect the others. But the axiom does not separate the units from one another, but rather states that top defensive play is needed to win a championship with the obvious assertion that an offense is also a must to win games. 

It's better to just say you need a great complimentary team no matter how it's designed and there are several ways to achieve that. The biggest thing is that a great offense helps a weak defense look good more than a great defense will make a weak offense look good. So it's more noticeable in which unit was more dominant. 

 

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4 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Ok lets say you have a great offense and a great special teams but a mediocre defense. Your offense jumps out to a lead and are holding onto the ball 5-7 mins per drive. The opposing team at some point by the 2nd quarter is now trying to play catch up and is back on their end of the field with limited options. 

How many games have the Patriots won just because they jumped out to a lead and had the other team playing catch up all game while the special teams was pinning them back? Probably alot. 

Not this season :(

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1 minute ago, lancerman said:

Ok lets say you have a great offense and a great special teams but a mediocre defense. Your offense jumps out to a lead and are holding onto the ball 5-7 mins per drive. The opposing team at some point by the 2nd quarter is now trying to play catch up and is back on their end of the field with limited options. 

How many games have the Patriots won just because they jumped out to a lead and had the other team playing catch up all game while the special teams was pinning them back? Probably alot. 

Yes? But in the playoffs with that mediocre defense your not going to gather a lead and if you do its not safe against playoff offenses.  I don't really understand what we are arguing. I know PPG is flawed as it removes all context on the defense so I actually agree with what your saying. 

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Just now, lancerman said:

Most of our games were close this season

Can only think of two games where we have had our usual level of dictation. Saints and Falcons. They were never in it. Other than that, we've either been playing catch-up or hold them off late. 

More to the topic's point, if we somehow win the SB this season, with our worst ever defense (lets say it regresses again) then the theory of needed a good/competent defense is killed. 

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24 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

It's hard to disagree with this. I've tried to think of a recent superbowl winner with only a competent D, and I can't. A defense that wins turnovers is more than just competent, and for me, that's the most important aspect. See Saints and see Patriots. 

Agree as well. A defense's ultimate job is to stop the opponent from scoring, how they do so is irrelevant, and takeaways are very effective manner to accomplish that task.

Take the defensive philosophy of the Patriots for example. It's a "bend but don't break break" approach and it's effective for quite a few reasons. First and foremost, it prevents the big play that often provides the opposition with a quick momentum shift, and it also forces the offense into mutiple play drives. Making the offense perform a high number plays within a series impels them to consistently execute at a high degree while also increasing the chance of a defensive takeaway. In turn, if a defense proves to be effective in these areas analytical breakdowns such as YPA, yards/rush, 1st downs given up, etc. etc. are insignificant. That's why the simple measure of PPG, though possessing it's own flaws, yet minimal, is sufficient. 

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7 minutes ago, lancerman said:

It's better to just say you need a great complimentary team no matter how it's designed and there are several ways to achieve that. The biggest thing is that a great offense helps a weak defense look good more than a great defense will make a weak offense look good. So it's more noticeable in which unit was more dominant. 

 

Unless you can provide mutiple examples to support this theory, outside of the very few exceptions that have already been addressed in this thread, this is not true. 

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1 hour ago, Carmen Cygni said:

That's incorrect. In NE's recent championship games their defense only allowed 24 points or over in 2 of those 5 SBs. 29 to Carolina, and 24 to Seattle. 

 

That's true, because 7 points vs ATL were a defensive score and I misremembered the PHI score. The point still stands, NE's defense have given up 23..8 ppg in SBs, that would be good  22nd in the NFL this year.

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49 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

It's hard to disagree with this. I've tried to think of a recent superbowl winner with only a competent D, and I can't. A defense that wins turnovers is more than just competent, and for me, that's the most important aspect. See Saints and see Patriots. 

Denver (XVL)?  Seattle (XLVIII)?

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