Striker Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 (edited) 43 minutes ago, packfanfb said: We have two very good EDGE players and the best NT in the NFL too. But yes, if you watched the SB, watch Stafford and the Rams offense pre and post OBJs injury. It was night and day, and if not for that last miracle drive where he hit Kupp 3-4 times in a row, the Rams lose. So, it mattered. Not to mention Rams don't get to the SB without the OBJ signing. One thing to point out is that we have seen McVay’s offenses fall apart after good starts in multiple postseason games at this point (vs. Tampa, vs. NEP, vs. SF, vs. CIN) so it’s entirely possible they would have had a collapse even with OBJ still on the field. Edited March 19, 2022 by Striker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Leader said: Okay fine.......but taking your numbers (60 receptions 820 yards, 9 TDs) - which I fully realize are off the top of your head projections.... Based on last year's receiving stats & ranking: 60 receptions - Ranks him 51st in the league - tied with Pat Freiermuth (PIT) 820 yards - ranks him just behind Brandon Aiyuk (SF) (826yds) - 40th best in the league. 9 TD - this is where he comes out best - this ranks him tied with Mike Williams (LAC) - 9th best in the league. Again - I got it - your stats are nothing but pie in the sky projections - but if accurate - you're okay with that being our WR1? This is where I disagree with your "We'll be okay returning the same guys" philosophy. We need BALANCE to our passing game - which IMO at least - mandates we have somebody who's gonna draw coverage and help the other WRs (including Lazard) produce ABOVE your projections. Having a "lesser" on the other side of the field will not be a net gain for the offense. You need to start looking at reality though, is Julio Jones, Will Fuller, Jameson Crowder that guy? Is Brandon Cooks or Robert Woods via trade that guy? The #1 WR in this draft is nowhere near Lamb, Jeudy, Jefferson, Chase, Waddle or Smith. We're not going to have a #1 this year. We're actually going to have exactly what you're asking for, a balanced attack involving 3-4 different weapons. Lazard being one of them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hitnhope Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Packerraymond said: ^The numbers prove me wrong, so here's my strawman. Your numbers don't prove anything other than when misapplied they lead to bad decisions and bad takes. It is shouting that a person can't scout using their own eyes and putting numbers in context. Add in a dislike for AR and you will find some numbers that when taken out of context make it look like Lazard is a top WR. Yes. 31 other teams in the league are clamoring for Alan Lazard. I'm sure the Chiefs were considering a trade of Hill for Lazard because the latter is a better blocker. The Raiders were really interested in Lazard, bt had to settle for Davante. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Leader said: Okay fine.......but taking your numbers (60 receptions 820 yards, 9 TDs) - which I fully realize are off the top of your head projections.... Based on last year's receiving stats & ranking: 60 receptions - Ranks him 51st in the league - tied with Pat Freiermuth (PIT) 820 yards - ranks him just behind Brandon Aiyuk (SF) (826yds) - 40th best in the league. 9 TD - this is where he comes out best - this ranks him tied with Mike Williams (LAC) - 9th best in the league. Again - I got it - your stats are nothing but pie in the sky projections - but if accurate - you're okay with that being our WR1? This is where I disagree with your "We'll be okay returning the same guys" philosophy. We need BALANCE to our passing game - which IMO at least - mandates we have somebody who's gonna draw coverage and help the other WRs (including Lazard) produce ABOVE your projections. Having a "lesser" on the other side of the field will not be a net gain for the offense. Bro, that's what BALANCE looks like. Balance is spreading the ball around to every guy on the field. Balance isn't 32% of the targets going to one player. Davante was the second most targeted player in the league last year. We've got a handful of really efficient guys on a per target basis that should be getting the ball more this year. Nobody is saving that Lazard is going to replace Adams 1 for 1. But getting 3 of those 11 targets from a rookie, 3 additional from Lazard, 2 additional from MVS, 1.5 additional from Tonyan, and 1.5 additional from the rest of the roster is the idea. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hitnhope Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Every measure of Allen Lazard from an efficiency standpoint is on par with Davante Adams. Obviously some of that efficiency will drop off as it's scaled up to more volume, but to say that there is no reason Allen Lazard shouldn't be in line to get more targets is just crazy. The bar changes here. Nobody said Lazard "shouldn't be in line for more targets". We are saying he isn't a number1 receiver, and at best a marginal #2. Are you really going to suggest that Lazard is anything like Davante as a receiver? In any way? That would prove my point about manipulating numbers to say what you want better than anything possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: You need to start looking at reality though. Dude.....stop pretending you've got a corner on reality. 5 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: Is Julio Jones, Will Fuller, Jameson Crowder that guy? Is Brandon Cooks or Robert Woods via trade that guy? No and I'd actually reached that conclusion on my own. Whattdayno. None of them excite me for various & differing reasons as "the guy" that's gonna put us over the top. 8 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: The #1 WR in this draft is nowhere near Lamb, Jeudy, Jefferson, Chase, Waddle or Smith. We're not going to have a #1 this year. We're actually going to have exactly what you're asking for, a balanced attack involving 3-4 different weapons. Lazard being one of them. Fine - then you're reinforcing my point that we need to draft a guy as high as possible to MAXIMIZE the available skill set in this draft. Maybe he's not Justin or Chase - but opposite the up & coming Lazard.....we might have something. FA's wont cut it by themselves.....and IMO at least....just running the same crew back and expecting exponential on the field explosion is fools gold. We've got the MVP. Lets upgrade the passing attack....as much as possible at least......to offset DA's departure. Btw - whats a REALISTIC return target for Tonyan (if we resign him that is.....) and how much can we expect from him production-wise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victor1124 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 29 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: You're phrasing the question differently than I look at it. You seem (and correct me if I'm wrong about this) to look at it as a checklist: WR1: Nope WR2: Nope WR3: Yes (Lazard/MVS/Cobb) WR4: Yes (Lazard/MVS/Cobb) WR5: Yes (Lazard/MVS/Cobb) WR6: Rodgers If I were looking at it your way, I would feel very comfortable with either Lazard or MVS as my #2, but that's a difference of opinion. But I don't really look at it like that. If you plug in another #2 wide receiver (either a veteran or a rookie) with a generalist's skillset, you have 3 #2 quality receivers (and dangerous pass catching weapons at TE and RB) with all different skillsets that you can use to target pretty much any coverage. I would not be comfortable going into this season with a WR group of Lazard/MVS/Cobb/Rodgers/Taylor, without Tonyan or a better receiving target at TE, and not expect the offense to be a bit throttled by a lack of WR talent, but individual WR talent is one of the most overrated aspects of team building. The NFL is a zone league. Reading coverages from both the WR and QB spots is a hugely important skill. I think the main reason people(myself included), would want a free agent wideout and draft one early would be for insurance and the future. From what I understand, guys like Julio and Jarvis are nearly washed(change of scenery, playing with Rodgers could help), a guy like Will Fuller is hurt/inconsistent. Seems like there are guys that could do well but nothing is a guarantee. So if the guy they sign gets hurt or sucks, then they are right back to relying heavily on Lazard/MVS. A high draft pick isn't a guarantee either and having a veteran free agent would give them time to ease their way in and gives us a guy for the future. I'd say if they don't sign a guy outside of bringing back MVS then we would want to try and use our 1st on a WR(depending how the board falls), If we sign a guy then we could wait until the second. It still gives them 3 other picks in the first two rounds to address other needs. If we only had one pick in each of those rounds then that would be a different story. If we only had one pick in each of those rounds then that would be a different story. If we had a legit pass catching TE then that would change things as well, leaning towards Tonyan not being that guy and don't know if they would be able to bank on say a 2nd round TE to come in right away and be as productive as they would like. Hope we go FA/early draft pick at DL as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, packfanfb said: Let me add that it's not just about winning that one game, you also have to get to the game first. The 2021 Rams don't get to the SB without acquiring OBJ. Now acquiring Miller was important too, but it doesn't diminish the OBJ signing. The 2021 Bucs probably go back to the SB if they don't lose AB and Godwin. They lost both and the Rams barely beat them. The 2021 Bengals made the SB with one of the worst OLs in the NFL. A big reason was their explosive passing game (plus good defense). The Chiefs have been the kings of the AFC for 5 years and have the best receiving combo in football with Hill and Kelce, and typically an average defense. No one is saying these teams simply because they have better WR rooms than GB. But an equally stupid statement would be that the WR talent on those teams doesn't play a vital role in that same success. OBJ for the Rams: 376 snaps/48 targets/27 receptions/305 yards/5TDs/16 1st Downs Allen Lazard for the Packers: 716 snaps/60 targets/40 receptions/513 yards/8TDs/28 1st Downs OBJ vs. Lazard snaps/target 7.8 vs. 11.93 snaps/reception: 13.93 vs. 17.93 snaps/yard: 1.23 vs. 1.40 snaps/TD: 75.2 vs. 89.5 1st Down/Snap: 23.5 vs. 25.6 + Completion Percentage: 56.3% vs. 66.7% Yards/Target: 6.35 vs. 8.55 TDs/Target: .104 vs. .133 1st Down/Target: .348 vs. .467 + Yards/Reception: 11.30 vs. 12.825 TD/Reception: .185 vs. .20 First Down/Reception: .593 vs. .7 +++ How is OBJ better than Lazard? He got thrown at 50% more. That's it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, hitnhope said: The bar changes here. Nobody said Lazard "shouldn't be in line for more targets". We are saying he isn't a number1 receiver, and at best a marginal #2. Are you really going to suggest that Lazard is anything like Davante as a receiver? In any way? That would prove my point about manipulating numbers to say what you want better than anything possible. What's a reasonable percentage of Lazard's efficiency that we need to chop off here if we were to bump him from 4 targets per game to 7? 5%? I'm not saying he's going to go up to Davante numbers of like 10.5, but 7 is reasonable. That's like 50th in the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 1 hour ago, packfanfb said: Right. My depth chart in terms of predicted targets/production would be as follows. (and yes, I know the Packers won't see it this way): WR1: Rookie/FA WR2: Rookie/FA WR3: MVS or similar type speed guy WR4: Lazard WR5: Cobb (slot) WR6: Rodgers or someone else who is a ST guy if they beat him out (if Rodgers doesn't show anything in PS I don't think he's a roster lock like last year even as a 3rd rd pick). Lazard will always be the square peg for me. I think he's at best a low end 3, high end 4 guy and if he can't play specials that's a minus for that spot. However, I understand the Packers value him more than I do. Talk about unrealistic expectations here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Just now, CWood21 said: Talk about unrealistic expectations here. Highest targeted passer rating in the league last year . . . #4 WR at best. Not a spoiled fanbase in the slightest. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 1 hour ago, packfanfb said: We have two very good EDGE players and the best NT in the NFL too. But yes, if you watched the SB, watch Stafford and the Rams offense pre and post OBJs injury. It was night and day, and if not for that last miracle drive where he hit Kupp 3-4 times in a row, the Rams lose. So, it mattered. Not to mention Rams don't get to the SB without the OBJ signing. Mattered, sure. Causation, debatable. Clark is good, but beyond him at DL, it's sparse. Rams, TB, KC still hold the lead vs what GB has in the front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyIrish23 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 36 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Speed: Player A: 6'4-5/8, 227lbs, 4.55 40, 1.58 10-split, 17 bench reps, 38" vertical, 122" broad Player B: 6'0-5/8, 212lbs, 4.56 40, 1.64 10-split, 14 bench reps, 39.5" vertical, 123" broad One of these guys just got traded to the Raiders. The other is apparently too slow. Elusiveness: YAC/R 2020-2021 Player A: 4.97 Player B: 5.0 Dynamic Plays: Y/Reception 2020-2021 Player A: 13.2 Player B: 12.3 First Down % 2020-2021 Player A: 69.8% Player B: 66% TD % 2020-2021 Player A: 15.1% Player B: 12.1% Hands: Drop % 2021 Player A: 1.7 Player B: 1.8 Passer Rating Targeted 2021: Player A: 132.8 Player B: 115.3 Every measure of Allen Lazard from an efficiency standpoint is on par with Davante Adams. Obviously some of that efficiency will drop off as it's scaled up to more volume, but to say that there is no reason Allen Lazard shouldn't be in line to get more targets is just crazy. This is true; however, Adams drew double to triple coverage every game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, Victor1124 said: I think the main reason people(myself included), would want a free agent wideout and draft one early would be for insurance and the future. From what I understand, guys like Julio and Jarvis are nearly washed(change of scenery, playing with Rodgers could help), a guy like Will Fuller is hurt/inconsistent. Seems like there are guys that could do well but nothing is a guarantee. So if the guy they sign gets hurt or sucks, then they are right back to relying heavily on Lazard/MVS. A high draft pick isn't a guarantee either and having a veteran free agent would give them time to ease their way in and gives us a guy for the future. I'd say if they don't sign a guy outside of bringing back MVS then we would want to try and use our 1st on a WR(depending how the board falls), If we sign a guy then we could wait until the second. It still gives them 3 other picks in the first two rounds to address other needs. If we only had one pick in each of those rounds then that would be a different story. If we only had one pick in each of those rounds then that would be a different story. If we had a legit pass catching TE then that would change things as well, leaning towards Tonyan not being that guy and don't know if they would be able to bank on say a 2nd round TE to come in right away and be as productive as they would like. Hope we go FA/early draft pick at DL as well. We should be relying heavily on Lazard and MVS. That's the point of having young guys who have shown they can pefrorm in a lesser role. They get moved up to the next role. There is ZERO reason that Lazard and MVS should be sub 5.5% of targets guys. MVS was 89th in the league in % of targets last year. Aaron Jones was 120th. Allen Lazard was 121st. Tonyan was 153rd. Cobb was 159th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 1 minute ago, LuckyIrish23 said: This is true; however, Adams drew double to triple coverage every game. Which makes it particularly galling that our QB forgot about that and folded like a church basement chair in the playoffs because of it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.