Round 2 Pick 34; Christian Watson, WR, NDSU

[Norm]

29 minutes ago, Gopackgonerd said:

I like the whole segment of  "Can't do this" vs "Didn't do this" really encapsulates the whole conversation around him here, just because he wasn't asked to do something in college doesn't mean he is incapable of doing it.

This is probably the hardest part right? I see some guys who I think are super duper sharp, I remember one who played OL at Temple that would post elsewhere, he could spot a polished guy from a mile and tell your everything the other ones did wrong. But he always caught **** because some of these underdeveloped dudes would be low on his list and become really good players and everyone had to pile on him.

Projection is tough. The tools are there and that's the first part you want. 

I think EVERYONE agrees he could bust pretty easily. But I do think he has some star potential that I don't think most people think the others have, at least not as much. But that doesn't push his bust potential lower, I just think he could burn pretty bright if it all hits.

We aren't going to see him do it all because he wasn't asked to. He didn't put up huge stats because he wasn't really given the shot too. I think someone covered this but who knows on the right squad he might huge put up some real deal numbers, even in FBS. 

Kupp is a killer and he broke records but he played on a team that's like the reverse NDSU that throws the ball a ******* ton, iirc. That stuff matters. Hard to eval when you're not getting used. 

 

[PossibleCabbage]

I'm not sure I approve of a WR wearing #9.  Weren't the last two Packers to wear that number Seneca Wallace and Jim McMahon?

[thrILL!]

9 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I'm not sure I approve of a WR wearing #9.  Weren't the last two Packers to wear that number Seneca Wallace and Jim McMahon?

Seneca Wallace the legendary Madden QB??

It always cracked me up that McMahon got a 2nd SB ring with the Bears’ hated rival. Just knowing it gets under their fans’ skins and how it doesn’t count lol. 

[Gopackgonerd]

31 minutes ago, Norm said:

This is probably the hardest part right? I see some guys who I think are super duper sharp, I remember one who played OL at Temple that would post elsewhere, he could spot a polished guy from a mile and tell your everything the other ones did wrong. But he always caught **** because some of these underdeveloped dudes would be low on his list and become really good players and everyone had to pile on him.

Projection is tough. The tools are there and that's the first part you want. 

I think EVERYONE agrees he could bust pretty easily. But I do think he has some star potential that I don't think most people think the others have, at least not as much. But that doesn't push his bust potential lower, I just think he could burn pretty bright if it all hits.

We aren't going to see him do it all because he wasn't asked to. He didn't put up huge stats because he wasn't really given the shot too. I think someone covered this but who knows on the right squad he might huge put up some real deal numbers, even in FBS. 

Kupp is a killer and he broke records but he played on a team that's like the reverse NDSU that throws the ball a ******* ton, iirc. That stuff matters. Hard to eval when you're not getting used. 

 

That's why i think he will be successful here, we're not just going to use him in the "MVS role", he's going to get a lot of stuff underneath just like Tae did and pick up big chunks with his size and athleticism. They aren't going to win the same way, but are going to get the ball in the same way if that makes sense. I also think his sideline ability is good where Rodgers thrives throwing to. Having Rodgers in himself will help him put up real deal numbers. It's all a matter of how fast can that connection grow with him and Rodgers. 

 

[vegas492]

15 hours ago, Norm said:

This is probably the hardest part right? I see some guys who I think are super duper sharp, I remember one who played OL at Temple that would post elsewhere, he could spot a polished guy from a mile and tell your everything the other ones did wrong. But he always caught **** because some of these underdeveloped dudes would be low on his list and become really good players and everyone had to pile on him.

Projection is tough. The tools are there and that's the first part you want. 

I think EVERYONE agrees he could bust pretty easily. But I do think he has some star potential that I don't think most people think the others have, at least not as much. But that doesn't push his bust potential lower, I just think he could burn pretty bright if it all hits.

We aren't going to see him do it all because he wasn't asked to. He didn't put up huge stats because he wasn't really given the shot too. I think someone covered this but who knows on the right squad he might huge put up some real deal numbers, even in FBS. 

Kupp is a killer and he broke records but he played on a team that's like the reverse NDSU that throws the ball a ******* ton, iirc. That stuff matters. Hard to eval when you're not getting used. 

 

I don't feel that way, that he can bust easily.  Outside of injury, this kid has everything you want in a WR.  It isn't just speed and size, it is quickness.  I can't believe he is almost 6'5'' and can move as quick as he can.

Seriously, if he busts, our WR coach and maybe even our HC needs to be fired.

He was never really schemed open in college.  MLF is going to do that for him.  I know we are setting the bar appropriately for him, but it would not shock me if he goes for 1,000 this season.

We said there was no Jefferson or Chase in this draft.  I think that "we" were wrong.  This kid has those traits and by all accounts, he's a worker with a great head on his shoulders.

[ROBOKOP]

Sooooooooooooooo, I was just reading Watson seems to have an issue with the dropsies....He dropped 16 (sixteen) passes on 120 career catchable targets which certainly seems like an unusually high percentage.  Hopefully our guy spends some time on the Jugs machine, amirite?    

[vegas492]

3 minutes ago, ROBOKOP said:

Sooooooooooooooo, I was just reading Watson seems to have an issue with the dropsies....He dropped 16 (sixteen) passes on 120 career catchable targets which certainly seems like an unusually high percentage.  Hopefully our guy spends some time on the Jugs machine, amirite?    

Depends.  I think he had like 2 drops last year.

And his "drops" were usually contested deep balls.  It isn't like that offense threw him quick slants or stand up passes.

From the little I saw, the guy attacks the ball in the air.  And he had limited opportunities in college, so he may have been a little juiced when the ball was coming his way.

No doubt the jugs will help, but so will having Rodgers place the ball where it needs to be.

I'm more worried about him running routes precisely than I am him catching the ball.

[Norm]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I don't feel that way, that he can bust easily.  Outside of injury, this kid has everything you want in a WR.  It isn't just speed and size, it is quickness.  I can't believe he is almost 6'5'' and can move as quick as he can.

Seriously, if he busts, our WR coach and maybe even our HC needs to be fired.

He was never really schemed open in college.  MLF is going to do that for him.  I know we are setting the bar appropriately for him, but it would not shock me if he goes for 1,000 this season.

We said there was no Jefferson or Chase in this draft.  I think that "we" were wrong.  This kid has those traits and by all accounts, he's a worker with a great head on his shoulders.

Ignoring injury stuff from it all,he doesn't feel like his floor is as high as the guys that went before him is what I'm getting at. Maybe using bust wasn't the right word, though I do believe he could end up "busting" tbh. 

[Norm]

8 minutes ago, ROBOKOP said:

Sooooooooooooooo, I was just reading Watson seems to have an issue with the dropsies....He dropped 16 (sixteen) passes on 120 career catchable targets which certainly seems like an unusually high percentage.  Hopefully our guy spends some time on the Jugs machine, amirite?    

I wonder how accurate "drops" are from dudes breaking FCS tape...

Not even kidding.

[Kampfgeist]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I don't feel that way, that he can bust easily.  Outside of injury, this kid has everything you want in a WR.  It isn't just speed and size, it is quickness.  I can't believe he is almost 6'5'' and can move as quick as he can.

Seriously, if he busts, our WR coach and maybe even our HC needs to be fired.

He was never really schemed open in college.  MLF is going to do that for him.  I know we are setting the bar appropriately for him, but it would not shock me if he goes for 1,000 this season.

We said there was no Jefferson or Chase in this draft.  I think that "we" were wrong.  This kid has those traits and by all accounts, he's a worker with a great head on his shoulders.

That would be way out of line for rookie WR's in GB and I think I would be shocked if he approached those kinds of numbers - but I'll toast to your level of optimism this early offseason.     I'm drinking a lot of whiskey shots this morning anyway

[vegas492]

50 minutes ago, Norm said:

Ignoring injury stuff from it all,he doesn't feel like his floor is as high as the guys that went before him is what I'm getting at. Maybe using bust wasn't the right word, though I do believe he could end up "busting" tbh. 

I felt the same way, Norm.  Before I watched a lot of his stuff and watch how he moved versus watching the ball.

I came away thinking his floor is much higher than anyone is giving him credit for.

This is not a "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" kid.  He's already very smooth.  Little things like suddenness off of the line stand out.  How he maintains balance, stuff like that.  And by all accounts, he's a worker with a good head on his shoulders.  The real shame here is that he didn't have a guy like 'Vante to learn from for a year or two.

I think the "low floor" comes from how he was used in college.  Had they thrown him 3 easy balls a game, like stand ups, slants....etc, his numbers would be much better and he would have been fighting it out with Williams as WR1 in this class.

Guys this big aren't supposed to move like Watson does.  As in quickness to go with straight line speed.

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, Kampfgeist said:

That would be way out of line for rookie WR's in GB and I think I would be shocked if he approached those kinds of numbers - but I'll toast to your level of optimism this early offseason.     I'm drinking a lot of whiskey shots this morning anyway

Yup.  I'll happily lead this hype train.  And to be fair, this is just me being very optimistic after watching a lot of stuff on him and looking at the little things.  

If Watson is "raw" it is because of what they asked him to do in college.  If we have a good WR teacher for him, the reality is, the sky is the limit for him.

And I do feel like MLF hasn't slept since we drafted him.  He's already figuring out how to make life easier for him and scheme him open so that all those little traits come through.

Edited May 3, 2022 by vegas492

[Norm]

16 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I felt the same way, Norm.  Before I watched a lot of his stuff and watch how he moved versus watching the ball.

I came away thinking his floor is much higher than anyone is giving him credit for.

This is not a "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" kid.  He's already very smooth.  Little things like suddenness off of the line stand out.  How he maintains balance, stuff like that.  And by all accounts, he's a worker with a good head on his shoulders.  The real shame here is that he didn't have a guy like 'Vante to learn from for a year or two.

I think the "low floor" comes from how he was used in college.  Had they thrown him 3 easy balls a game, like stand ups, slants....etc, his numbers would be much better and he would have been fighting it out with Williams as WR1 in this class.

Guys this big aren't supposed to move like Watson does.  As in quickness to go with straight line speed.

It's definitely coming from the circumstances he's played in and I have faith that he will be really good and we'd be more excited had he been in a better place to produce, don't get me wrong, I love this pick. Everyone I know IRL was texting me "omfg they really went and got your guy" etc etc. But I'm not trying to pretend it's all rainbows and unicorns just yet with no proven #1 in house. 

[TheEagle]

2 hours ago, Norm said:

I wonder how accurate "drops" are from dudes breaking FCS tape...

Not even kidding.

I agree. PFF has him down for 5 drops in 2021, but the dude from Steelers Depot broke down every one of his targets in 2021 (post-Senior Bowl, pre-Scouting Combine) and had him down for 2 drops on 58 targets (43 receptions). If the drop rate was cut in half would anybody be worrying about his hands?

https://steelersdepot.com/2022/02/contextualization-of-wr-christian-watsons-2021-pass-targets-at-ndsu/

Edited May 3, 2022 by TheEagle

[Norm]

2 minutes ago, TheEagle said:

I agree. PFF has him down for 5 drops in 2021, but pre-draft the dude from Steelers Depot broke down every one of his targets in 2021 and had him down for 2 drops on 58 targets (43 receptions). If the drop rate was cut in half would anybody be worrying about his hands?

https://steelersdepot.com/2022/02/contextualization-of-wr-christian-watsons-2021-pass-targets-at-ndsu/

Oh damn he literally clipped EVERY target?

I was just thinking I would like to see all the drops in one clip from pff. I'll see if I have the patience to go through this later, props to that guy for sure though