Round 2 Pick 34; Christian Watson, WR, NDSU

[BrettFavre004]

Something I think is really weird, using Rich Hill's most up to date trade value chart: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp Picks 53 and 59 used to trade for Watson came out to 680, which is exactly pick 27.  Pick 28 is 670 points.

 

Thus, we spent more draft capital on Watson than we did Wyatt.   Just kind of hard to wrap your head around. 

[PossibleCabbage]

The reason that there are so many trades in the draft now is that teams are using different charts.  This allows both teams to feel like they "won" the trade.  Back when the Jimmy Johnson chart was approximately agreed upon by teams, you had to send a bunch of late round picks back and forth to balance the measure.

Like the Detroit/Minnesota trade, depending on which chart you use both teams can view that they won the trade.

So it's not unreasonable the Packers considered Watson to be worth ~#28, but had Wyatt roughly worth #~22 (they were on record as saying that they feared they lost out on Wyatt by taking Walker.)  So getting three guys you had in your top 30 with 4 top 60 picks doesn't seem like terrible value.

Edited May 4, 2022 by PossibleCabbage

[craig]

2 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

It would be nice if the defense had reason to pay attention to the jet fake.  Two years ago they ran that over and over again without ever handing it off.

Yeah, I think it's just fun to watch, and I think it helps to perhaps mix up the defensive alignment.  I've got to imagine it probably impacts the defense the most if they actually think the handoff might happen, though! 

I also suspect it's practicality depends on the o-line (like everything else.). To go sweeping around that far, if one guy on the line is getting whipped, a penetration defender can make those really ugly really fast (if a handoff has actually happened.).  

[vegas492]

2 hours ago, Bullet Club said:

I really can't get on board with this. You're setting yourself up to be massively disappointed.

Yup.

I've watched just a lot of his stuff.  And I'm not watching the ball, I'm watching how he moves.  I'm looking at how fluid he is, how his hands are where going at the ball and all of that little stuff.

Because his simply highlights will flat out blow you away.

I wanted to find something to nitpick on him.  But nothing is there.  Maybe hands, but I didn't see any issues with hands.

This is the most fluid athlete that I've seen in forever on that frame.  And the scary thing is, he can easily add 8-10 pounds of muscle without sacrificing anything athletically.

This kid is always on balance.  He has this ability to isntantly accelerate.  Not just in a straight line, but also in short spaces.  He's a nightmare to jam on the line.

If this athlete doesn't work out, it isn't on him.  It is on us.

I have no comp for him.  He's got the agility of Adams off of the line and in and out of breaks, but he has the acceleration and flat out speed of someone like Hill or Moss.

The only reason he didn't re-write the receptions records is the fact that his offense didn't ask him to.  They never threw him easy stuff.  They ran over and over.  Then took shots to him.

He is truly a threat to take it all the way on any play.  

Go to 3:30 on this clip.  It is a deep ball down the left sideline.  Little separation.  He catches the ball an the DB is right on his back.  Watson slows down for the catch and then is instantly out of arms reach in a blink of an eye.  Acceleration is instant.  This is not build up speed, it is instant speed.

Teams may try to cover him 1:1 a few times.  But they are going to get burned.  This is a guy that will force safeties to hang back, even as a rookie.

 

[vegas492]

If this kid was wearing an Alabama jersey, he's the first skill guy taken in this draft on offense.  And we would have had zero shot at him.

Chase was a 9.81 RAS

Jefferson was 9.69 RAS

Calvin Johnson was a 10.0 RAS

Watson is 9.96.

Telling yah, it is all there.  Size.  Speed.  Power.  Agility.  Acceleration.  Got some work to do on the hands.  Needs to learn how to run the entire route tree.

But we should be finding a way to get him the ball 5+ times a game.  Not just shots, but find a way to get the ball in his hands.

[TransientTexan]

4 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

If this kid was wearing an Alabama jersey, he's the first skill guy taken in this draft on offense.  And we would have had zero shot at him.

Chase was a 9.81 RAS

Jefferson was 9.69 RAS

Calvin Johnson was a 10.0 RAS

Watson is 9.96.

Telling yah, it is all there.  Size.  Speed.  Power.  Agility.  Acceleration.  Got some work to do on the hands.  Needs to learn how to run the entire route tree.

But we should be finding a way to get him the ball 5+ times a game.  Not just shots, but find a way to get the ball in his hands.

Maybe, but RAS isn’t the end-all be-all. Jeff Janis was 9.89. 

[PossibleCabbage]

I feel like Christian Watson at NDSU is a much better football player than Jeff Janis was at Saginaw Valley State.

I get that there's a tendency to group "lower levels of college football" together, but there's probably a bigger gulf between "Saginaw Valley State" and "NDSU" than there is between NDSU and Alabama.  I'm not saying the Bison could hang with the Tide, but they wouldn't finish last in the SEC either.

[vegas492]

5 minutes ago, TransientTexan said:

Maybe, but RAS isn’t the end-all be-all. Jeff Janis was 9.89. 

Good thing I watched a lot of stuff on him and didn't just look up RAS scores.

If you watch Watson's stuff, don't track the ball.  Just find him and watch what he does.  In that video, there's even some Senior Bowl stuff on there.  Camera behind him as he tries to get off the press.  He moves like 'Vante.

And if he is "even" he's "leavin".

Again, had he worn a different helmet, he would have been the first offensive skill guy taken in this draft.  Thankfully he was a self professed "late bloomer".

[TransientTexan]

1 hour ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I feel like Christian Watson at NDSU is a much better football player than Jeff Janis was at Saginaw Valley State.

I get that there's a tendency to group "lower levels of college football" together, but there's probably a bigger gulf between "Saginaw Valley State" and "NDSU" than there is between NDSU and Alabama.  I'm not saying the Bison could hang with the Tide, but they wouldn't finish last in the SEC either.

Not saying he is Janis, just making a point about RAS.

[Green19]

1 hour ago, TransientTexan said:

Maybe, but RAS isn’t the end-all be-all. Jeff Janis was 9.89. 

And had a hall of fame career… he caught 2 Hail Marys in one game, on the same drive.

Gold jacket stuff

[JordanLoveFTW]

The more I go through Watsons big plays, the more a few patterns stick out. 

Most of his big plays were either seam routes or come back routes where he turned it up field after the catch and burst for 20 extra yards. I saw a back shoulder where he looked really natural. 

The majority of the other big plays were end around and runs. Hes really dynamic with the ball in his hands. Its his number one trait. 

I think to start out, you run him as a deep decoy and then work comebacks and back shoulders off of that. Unlike MVS, this speedster can back shoulder. Then add in some jet sweeps and screens to get the ball in his hands and use that part of his game. Maybe have him return kicks. 

Then you hope he starts to round out the rest of his game with time. He doesnt show a lot of polish as a route runner. 

[Arthur Penske]

6 hours ago, vegas492 said:

If this kid was wearing an Alabama jersey, he's the first skill guy taken in this draft on offense.  And we would have had zero shot at him.

Chase was a 9.81 RAS

Jefferson was 9.69 RAS

Calvin Johnson was a 10.0 RAS

Watson is 9.96.

Telling yah, it is all there.  Size.  Speed.  Power.  Agility.  Acceleration.  Got some work to do on the hands.  Needs to learn how to run the entire route tree.

But we should be finding a way to get him the ball 5+ times a game.  Not just shots, but find a way to get the ball in his hands.

The thing I don't understand on the RAS is how Calvin Johnson can be a 10 over someone like Watson or Julio when he didn't do the agiltiy drills 3 cone or Shuttle? Same with Jefferson. 

Shouldnt it factor in somehow that you didn't do them?

Edited May 5, 2022 by Arthur Penske

[Arthur Penske]

I love Jeff Janis. If i lived in Michigan I would frequent his tire shop.

[cannondale]

He has some work to do.

One dig route showed him taking 5 chop steps before his in cut. That takes far too long and too much of a tell in the NFL. I also noticed on many of his longer developing deep routes, he doesn't cut, it's more of a veer. He got away with it because he was so much faster than the competition, but I don't think that will fly either. A lot of hitch routes at the numbers with CB's giving 10 yards of cushion. As Palmy used to say, its harder for the tall guys to sell all that stuff, but he needs to get better. I know Antonio Freeman was hired by some teams to work on route running with their guys. I hope Christian hires someone. It's a long summer and he could get a head start

In that run first offense, you can tell the blocking expectations were very high, and he showed up.

Edited May 5, 2022 by cannondale

[vegas492]

12 hours ago, cannondale said:

He has some work to do.

One dig route showed him taking 5 chop steps before his in cut. That takes far too long and too much of a tell in the NFL. I also noticed on many of his longer developing deep routes, he doesn't cut, it's more of a veer. He got away with it because he was so much faster than the competition, but I don't think that will fly either. A lot of hitch routes at the numbers with CB's giving 10 yards of cushion. As Palmy used to say, its harder for the tall guys to sell all that stuff, but he needs to get better. I know Antonio Freeman was hired by some teams to work on route running with their guys. I hope Christian hires someone. It's a long summer and he could get a head start

In that run first offense, you can tell the blocking expectations were very high, and he showed up.

I too saw the "veer" on some cuts.

Also, I saw him run a post, corner, go route.  Very sharp, very crisp.  3 cuts and I dare say, each one was quicker than the prior one.  He ended up splitting a corner and safety and on the last cut, gained about 6 yards of separation on the safety who was just waiting for him.

No doubt he has to work on the route tree.  Also...he showed the ability to be able to do some of it already.  

Like you, I hope he gets a "head start" on those things.