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The 2023 Draft Thread - We're picking #7


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2 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

If the clock starts early for “tons of prospects” how is the combine’s time true gold standard?

that’s open to everyone to solve… it’s todays riddle

Can I solve it by saying it's sorta irrelevant anyway? 

Running a 4.4 40 in underwear is cute and all, but I'll never forget Usain Bolt looking like a snail running in pads. 

Some guys keep speed with pads on, others don't. If a guy looks fast and keeps up with people in-game on tape, they're fast enough. If they look slow and like they're running in quick sand once the pads come on, they could be 4.25 guys at the combine, but their play speed isn't and that's what really matters 

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There is really only 3 guys that I expect could be there at 7 maybe 4 that if we do not trade down, should be plug and play not counting offense. Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Carter, and Wilson I'm not that high on him if he can play inside maybe.

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If Houston actually passes on stroud for Anderson, I would give up a future 1 to go up to 3 and get him. Really like Stroud. Missing out on Caleb/Maye might hurt a little, but he's a franchise QB to me. And is only scratching the surface, which we saw in the Georgia game.

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12 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

If Houston actually passes on stroud for Anderson, I would give up a future 1 to go up to 3 and get him. Really like Stroud. Missing out on Caleb/Maye might hurt a little, but he's a franchise QB to me. And is only scratching the surface, which we saw in the Georgia game.

I just can’t ever see Stroud being elite like Allen, Mahomes, Burrow. But he’s a guy that can become a Top 10 guy and win you a ring if the entire roster is near perfect. He will be in the Prescott, Cousins, Carr, Lamar tier of QB’s, but he has the ability to be #1 of the tier. 

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Just now, BayRaider said:

I just can’t ever see Stroud being elite like Allen, Mahomes, Burrow. But he’s a guy that can become a Top 10 guy and win you a ring if the entire roster is near perfect. He will be in the Prescott, Cousins, Carr, Lamar tier of QB’s, but he has the ability to be #1 of the tier. 

I think he has all the tools to be a top QB in the league. How high I'm not sure but his improvisation in the Georgia game shows that he's still improving and adding to his game.

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Just now, MrOaktown_56 said:

I think he has all the tools to be a top QB in the league. How high I'm not sure but his improvisation in the Georgia game shows that he's still improving and adding to his game.

Top, yes. But I’m always searching for that superstar/elite Top 6-7 guy. I think Stroud’s ceiling is that 8-9 range and best QB in the league that’s not “elite”. If that makes any sense. 

I’d still be totally excited drafting the guy. Like you said his Georgia game is as good as it gets and makes you craving more. But also one game doesn’t change two years of tape where his best comps are a somewhat Premium Version of Prescott/Carr/Goff. 

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7 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Can I solve it by saying it's sorta irrelevant anyway? 

Running a 4.4 40 in underwear is cute and all, but I'll never forget Usain Bolt looking like a snail running in pads. 

Some guys keep speed with pads on, others don't. If a guy looks fast and keeps up with people in-game on tape, they're fast enough. If they look slow and like they're running in quick sand once the pads come on, they could be 4.25 guys at the combine, but their play speed isn't and that's what really matters 

It’d definitely irrelevant as you said….

And your right about game speed vs running at the combine/workouts.

honestly, i could care less about Arnette’s speed … i only responded because of miscellaneous comments that were made.  He was a massive reach no matter that his speed was… and shouldn’t have even been on the draft board because of all his Existing character issues.  It’s a shame BR’s psych eval never made its way to Mayock. I remember Mayock saying he’s turned around, just had a baby and rededicated his life.  He got taken for a fool on that one. 

And I agree with what you said …. I believe the 40 time shouldn’t be treated and this super important number…. I
think its meant to validate what is On the film and give a quantifiable number to it or if it differs from what is seen on film to investigate.  Also, you use the times as a tool in various other ways such as excluding players from the draft board or significantly downgrading them  if the times are outside the tolerances of the position.  Example, OT’s who run above 5.3/5.4 or man coverage CBs who run above 4.5 are statistically less likely to pan out.  The whole point being it’s one test of many and is a tool to validate what’s seen on film.

I think people have to remember: it’s the better of two runs on ONE Day in time.  A Player who runs a 4.45 at the combine isn’t going to run 4.45 every time the rest of his career.  (He might never run a timed 40 ever again.) If he was to be tested tomorrow he could run 4.38 to 4.52 (number are just meant as a reasonable example of range).   I see people using these times to compare players and there’s only minor variances between them but they give far to much value to the difference.  

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Stroud would be the same as Carr where you would need to put a stacked offense for the guy to look like a Top 10 QB. Less resources for the defense. I don’t think Stroud would require the amount of talent Carr does, but he would require a good OL (not great) and great weapons. Whereas Richardson and Young are the type QB’s that would require much less on offense. 

Although at least with Stroud you’re getting a Rookie QB salary, and unknown potential (I say this as a good thing). 

I’m all for drafting any of the Top 3 QB’s. There is no Mid Round guys I like this year at all though. 

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If we get Young or Stroud, it makes Jimmy’s signing look horrible. Young and Stroud are Pro Ready Day One. Or at least by Mid Season. Having those two on the bench for one full year does nothing but stunt their growth. 

With that said, I’m fairly confident Young goes 1 and Stroud goes 2. I think it’s 90-95% likely Texans go Stroud at 2. I don’t believe the smoke at all. 

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I wonder how CJ Stroud scored on SO2 cognitive test and wonderlic? Rumors are Bryce was in the 99th percentile and Richardson in the 90th percentile. Whereas Stroud is rumored to be way behind both, which is definitely kind of concerning. Ohio State QB’s already have a bad rap for processing speed in the NFL. And if Stroud scored badly on both of those tests, especially SO2 cognitive (many GM’s like this test for processing speed), then will he have trouble processing progressions in the NFL like all other Ohio State QB’s before him? 

Food for thought, I guess. It’s pretty annoying they don’t release SO2 and wonderlic until a day before the draft. 

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2 hours ago, BayRaider said:

I wonder how CJ Stroud scored on SO2 cognitive test and wonderlic? Rumors are Bryce was in the 99th percentile and Richardson in the 90th percentile. Whereas Stroud is rumored to be way behind both, which is definitely kind of concerning. Ohio State QB’s already have a bad rap for processing speed in the NFL. And if Stroud scored badly on both of those tests, especially SO2 cognitive (many GM’s like this test for processing speed), then will he have trouble processing progressions in the NFL like all other Ohio State QB’s before him? 

Food for thought, I guess. It’s pretty annoying they don’t release SO2 and wonderlic until a day before the draft. 

He seemed to have no issues processing quickly in college.  He had no issues reading defenses and reacting.  

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4 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

He seemed to have no issues processing quickly in college.  He had no issues reading defenses and reacting.  

You can say the same about other Ohio State QB’s too. The system has not translated well and progressions are much easier than a traditional NFL pro offensive system.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Stroud a lot and would love to have him. Just keeping an open mindset about possible positives and negatives.  

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