TL-TwoWinsAway Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Pickle Rick said: 28 passes 31 carries Thats 53% run Outside looking in: Week 11 - Rush %: 44.87% Week 12 - Rush %: 45.33% Week 13 - Rush %: 34.25% Week 14 - Rush %: 45.78% Week 15 - Rush %: 50.00% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Outside looking in: Week 11 - Rush %: 44.87% Week 12 - Rush %: 45.33% Week 13 - Rush %: 34.25% Week 14 - Rush %: 45.78% Week 15 - Rush %: 50.00% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: 28 passes 31 carries Thats 53% run Werk 14: 47% Week 13: 35% Week 12: 47% Week 11: 48% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Robert Hunt to RB1 CEH to OG2 Run chance: 70 RB1 chance: 80 @TheKillerNacho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuskieTitan Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 I feel like people are misconstruing what setting a % will mean. It won't mean that at the end of your game you will have a nice neat distribution of plays based on the run pass slider. Rather, each individual play is calculated by the sim as to what the team will do and fits the slider % into that calculation. It reminds me of XCOM actually. Each shot you take has an individual percentage to hit, with other factors that could come into play (is it an overwatch reaction shot? High/low ground?) But ultimately even 95% will miss, and believe me missing back to back 95% is crushing... but each roll is independent of the previous or future rolls. So while you may set run chance low, other factors in the sim may result in the overall game summary to not reflect the individual play selection weight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Pickle Rick said: 8 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: 28 passes 31 carries Thats 53% run Expand Werk 14: 47% Week 13: 35% Week 12: 47% Week 11: 48% There is a reason I want 30% run or as close to it as I can get. But when I'm getting around 50% run something seems to be up. So whatever I need to do id like to know bc I want as little passing as possible bc the running kills drives in the sim for my team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 minute ago, RuskieTitan said: I feel like people are misconstruing what setting a % will mean. It won't mean that at the end of your game you will have a nice neat distribution of plays based on the run pass slider. Rather, each individual play is calculated by the sim as to what the team will do and fits the slider % into that calculation. It reminds me of XCOM actually. Each shot you take has an individual percentage to hit, with other factors that could come into play (is it an overwatch reaction shot? High/low ground?) But ultimately even 95% will miss, and believe me missing back to back 95% is crushing... but each roll is independent of the previous or future rolls. So while you may set run chance low, other factors in the sim may result in the overall game summary to not reflect the individual play selection weight. But why did I have run chance 30 and had like 7 plays between 3rd and 7 and 3rd and long and ran the ball with the back up. Went against the Run chance, situation, and RB1 chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 minute ago, RuskieTitan said: I feel like people are misconstruing what setting a % will mean. It won't mean that at the end of your game you will have a nice neat distribution of plays based on the run pass slider. Rather, each individual play is calculated by the sim as to what the team will do and fits the slider % into that calculation. It reminds me of XCOM actually. Each shot you take has an individual percentage to hit, with other factors that could come into play (is it an overwatch reaction shot? High/low ground?) But ultimately even 95% will miss, and believe me missing back to back 95% is crushing... but each roll is independent of the previous or future rolls. So while you may set run chance low, other factors in the sim may result in the overall game summary to not reflect the individual play selection weight. But statistically over a larger sample size of say 5 games it should come closer to the 30% as opposed to 50%. And if the sim won't allow a lower run % then i don't know why we shouldn't be allowed to go below the 30% and see what happens lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 minute ago, The Orca said: But why did I have run chance 30 and had like 7 plays between 3rd and 7 and 3rd and long and ran the ball with the back up. Went against the Run chance, situation, and RB1 chance The answer in general would be it was just what was rolled, but statistically that can be used to explain that over a single game of small sample sizes. If that is the case over almost a third of the season then the rng is wonky lol. Unless the rng is out to get you I guess 🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: But statistically over a larger sample size of say 5 games it should come closer to the 30% as opposed to 50%. And if the sim won't allow a lower run % then i don't know why we shouldn't be allowed to go below the 30% and see what happens lol I actually don't agree with that. There are plenty of factors that may lead to you running the ball more. That 30% is only on a situationally unaffected play, and still leaves a 30% chance that you'll run the ball. That's not a 'low' chance. (I'll also say that I read your Week 15 log and you did run the ball quite a bit, especially in the first half with a deficit. It's something that drives me crazy as well, but I just pretend that it's the fault of the Head Coach and yell at my TV harder.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, The Orca said: But yeah I have a theory...RB1 chance only works as planned if you have a 400 lb lineman as your backup and the % run only works as planned if you have a superstar QB, can't really test both of these though Interesting. I could buy that i think. I might test some of that out in the next season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said: I actually don't agree with that. There are plenty of factors that may lead to you running the ball more. That 30% is only on a situationally unaffected play, and still leaves a 30% chance that you'll run the ball. That's not a 'low' chance. (I'll also say that I read your Week 15 log and you did run the ball quite a bit, especially in the first half with a deficit. It's something that drives me crazy as well, but I just pretend that it's the fault of the Head Coach and yell at my TV harder.) Here's a good example from Week 15: Q2, 2:42, 4th & 4 on the SCR 43: Jake Bailey's punt fair caught by Christian Watson for 42 yards. Possession now belongs to the Greenland Polar Bears. Current score is Greenland Polar Bears 10, Scranton Papermakers 14. Q2, 2:34, 1st & 10 on the GRE 15: Elijah Mitchell rushes to the outside for a gain of 3 yards. Tackle made by Kyle Van Noy.Q2, 2:00, 2nd & 7 on the GRE 18: Elijah Mitchell rushes to the outside and is tackled for no gain. Tackle made by Cameron Jordan.Q2, 1:20, 3rd & 7 on the GRE 18: Elijah Mitchell rushes up the middle for a gain of 3 yards. Tackle made by Dexter Lawrence. Q2, 0:41, 4th & 4 on the GRE 21: Bryan Anger's punt downed by the Greenland Polar Bears for 65 yards. That "Run Chance: 30" doesn't apply in that situation. I've noticed that you're almost guaranteed to run the ball there, and I understand the rationale: you're backed up into your own zone and the first half is almost over. You want to consume clock, so you run the ball three times in a row. It works: you kill the clock and punt, leading to halftime. Situations like that will distort that number quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Here's a good example from Week 15: Q2, 2:42, 4th & 4 on the SCR 43: Jake Bailey's punt fair caught by Christian Watson for 42 yards. Possession now belongs to the Greenland Polar Bears. Current score is Greenland Polar Bears 10, Scranton Papermakers 14. Q2, 2:34, 1st & 10 on the GRE 15: Elijah Mitchell rushes to the outside for a gain of 3 yards. Tackle made by Kyle Van Noy.Q2, 2:00, 2nd & 7 on the GRE 18: Elijah Mitchell rushes to the outside and is tackled for no gain. Tackle made by Cameron Jordan.Q2, 1:20, 3rd & 7 on the GRE 18: Elijah Mitchell rushes up the middle for a gain of 3 yards. Tackle made by Dexter Lawrence. Q2, 0:41, 4th & 4 on the GRE 21: Bryan Anger's punt downed by the Greenland Polar Bears for 65 yards. That "Run Chance: 30" doesn't apply in that situation. I've noticed that you're almost guaranteed to run the ball there, and I understand the rationale: you're backed up into your own zone and the first half is almost over. You want to consume clock, so you run the ball three times in a row. It works: you kill the clock and punt, leading to halftime. Situations like that will distort that number quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: I actually don't agree with that. There are plenty of factors that may lead to you running the ball more. That 30% is only on a situationally unaffected play, and still leaves a 30% chance that you'll run the ball. That's not a 'low' chance. (I'll also say that I read your Week 15 log and you did run the ball quite a bit, especially in the first half with a deficit. It's something that drives me crazy as well, but I just pretend that it's the fault of the Head Coach and yell at my TV harder.) Sure situationally unaffected play. So why am I running the ball with 2:30 or less left and losing (happened numerous times over the season). Those should be all passes not all runs, yet passes didn't happen. 3 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Here's a good example from Week 15: Q2, 2:42, 4th & 4 on the SCR 43: Jake Bailey's punt fair caught by Christian Watson for 42 yards. Possession now belongs to the Greenland Polar Bears. Current score is Greenland Polar Bears 10, Scranton Papermakers 14. Q2, 2:34, 1st & 10 on the GRE 15: Elijah Mitchell rushes to the outside for a gain of 3 yards. Tackle made by Kyle Van Noy.Q2, 2:00, 2nd & 7 on the GRE 18: Elijah Mitchell rushes to the outside and is tackled for no gain. Tackle made by Cameron Jordan.Q2, 1:20, 3rd & 7 on the GRE 18: Elijah Mitchell rushes up the middle for a gain of 3 yards. Tackle made by Dexter Lawrence. Q2, 0:41, 4th & 4 on the GRE 21: Bryan Anger's punt downed by the Greenland Polar Bears for 65 yards. That "Run Chance: 30" doesn't apply in that situation. I've noticed that you're almost guaranteed to run the ball there, and I understand the rationale: you're backed up into your own zone and the first half is almost over. You want to consume clock, so you run the ball three times in a row. It works: you kill the clock and punt, leading to halftime. Situations like that will distort that number quite a bit. That has happened to end the game as well which 100% should be all pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: The answer in general would be it was just what was rolled, but statistically that can be used to explain that over a single game of small sample sizes. If that is the case over almost a third of the season then the rng is wonky lol. Unless the rng is out to get you I guess 🤪 Well you would think since RB1 can get tired...RB 2 would as well...but he keeps chugging along getting the carries with no tiredness 😂 1st half McCaffery: 6 carries CEH: 9 carries 2nd half McCaffery: 3 carries CEH: 6 carries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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