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Grading the 2019 draft


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For those who care.......

 

2019 draft with weight Career approximate Value and Draft team approximate value

 

Team wCaV DrAV
OAK/LV 100 100
Ari 89 89
TEN 89 89
TB 85 78
NYG 82 79
SF 82 79
WAS 80 78
Buf 74 74
MIN 70 65
LAR 69 67
MIA 65 62
GB 64 64
Jax 63 56
Den 60 56
SEA 60 60
Det 57 45
PIT 57 57
NE 53 50
CIN 52 49
KC 51 51
BAL 50 50
IND 48 48
ATL 47 47
Hou 46 46
CLE 40 39
LAC 40 40
NO 34 34
Car 33 33
DAL 33 32
NYJ 32 30
PHI 28 28
CHI 26 25

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, VonKarman said:

Well, depends on how you grade. A+ for me is getting Russ with the 75th pick or something similar (something like the 2017 Saints draft). I'd give this draft a B o B-, since it's a pretty good draft. But then again, I'd grade a C a decent draft and give a D/F to around 10-12 teams each year. If you give this draft an A+ how are you able to distinguish it from the really really good ones?

One pick alone shouldn't dictate draft grades.  I mean, the Seahawks passed on Russell Wilson twice in 2012.  You have to grade the picks based on where the respective teams were picking, and how the prospects were viewed.  Using the 2019 draft as an example, I'd argue that the Packers picking Rashan Gary at 12 was more impressive then the 49ers picking Nick Bosa at 2.  Bosa was viewed as the BPA in the draft class, and they 49ers took the highest graded player after the Cardinals took Kyler Murray.  Most weren't even convinced that Rashan Gary was worth investing a FRP into, and most had Brian Burns ranked ahead of him.  I give the 49ers a TON of credit for the Deebo Samuel selection as I would the Elgton Jenkins selection.  I'd say the 49ers and Packers both nailed that draft.

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21 hours ago, Patriotplayer90 said:

I think one more starting caliber player, or Savage becoming a top safety makes this an A+.  

You hope to get 2-3 starters, not borderline All-Pro players, in the draft.  The Packers far exceeded that.

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23 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

One pick alone shouldn't dictate draft grades.  I mean, the Seahawks passed on Russell Wilson twice in 2012.  You have to grade the picks based on where the respective teams were picking, and how the prospects were viewed.  Using the 2019 draft as an example, I'd argue that the Packers picking Rashan Gary at 12 was more impressive then the 49ers picking Nick Bosa at 2.  Bosa was viewed as the BPA in the draft class, and they 49ers took the highest graded player after the Cardinals took Kyler Murray.  Most weren't even convinced that Rashan Gary was worth investing a FRP into, and most had Brian Burns ranked ahead of him.  I give the 49ers a TON of credit for the Deebo Samuel selection as I would the Elgton Jenkins selection.  I'd say the 49ers and Packers both nailed that draft.

I agree with the Nick Bosa take. Each pick has a different weight and that should be taken into account when grading. In a similar way, Gary has turned out to be areally good pick, but it is also true that he didn't hit it right off the bat and that should be taken into account (although it shouldn't carry that much weight).

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4 hours ago, squire12 said:

For those who care.......

 

2019 draft with weight Career approximate Value and Draft team approximate value

 

 

Team wCaV DrAV
OAK/LV 100 100
Ari 89 89
TEN 89 89
TB 85 78
NYG 82 79
SF 82 79
WAS 80 78
Buf 74 74
MIN 70 65
LAR 69 67
MIA 65 62
GB 64 64
Jax 63 56
Den 60 56
SEA 60 60
Det 57 45
PIT 57 57
NE 53 50
CIN 52 49
KC 51 51
BAL 50 50
IND 48 48
ATL 47 47
Hou 46 46
CLE 40 39
LAC 40 40
NO 34 34
Car 33 33
DAL 33 32
NYJ 32 30
PHI 28 28
CHI 26 25

 

 

 

I like DrAV as a measuring stick for 3rd and 4th year drafts. Now if people really wanted to get a better view of how well their FO did, they could take the draft value of all the teams draft picks based on the value chart of where they selected and divide that total by the total DrAV number to get an average per draft value point. That gives a better idea on how well they did based on what they were working with.   

Edited by R T
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40 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

One pick alone shouldn't dictate draft grades.  I mean, the Seahawks passed on Russell Wilson twice in 2012.  You have to grade the picks based on where the respective teams were picking, and how the prospects were viewed.  Using the 2019 draft as an example, I'd argue that the Packers picking Rashan Gary at 12 was more impressive then the 49ers picking Nick Bosa at 2.  Bosa was viewed as the BPA in the draft class, and they 49ers took the highest graded player after the Cardinals took Kyler Murray.  Most weren't even convinced that Rashan Gary was worth investing a FRP into, and most had Brian Burns ranked ahead of him.  I give the 49ers a TON of credit for the Deebo Samuel selection as I would the Elgton Jenkins selection.  I'd say the 49ers and Packers both nailed that draft.

I tend to follow this same mantra in terms of grading picks. You can also apply this directly to the Aaron Rodgers pick. While there are points to be given for taking a QB at all in round 1 there when you have Favre, I don't consider it the "best" pick of Ted's career because Rodgers fell into our lap. If Ted would have traded up to 12-15 to take Rodgers, it's a more impressive pick at that point. I think Ted's best pick in his career was actually Clay Matthews, who he traded back into the 1st round to get. 

For Gute, it will hard for him to ever top the 2018 draft where he traded back, got an extra 1st and then traded back up to get Jaire. A lot of points to give for those moves. 

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45 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

You hope to get 2-3 starters, not borderline All-Pro players, in the draft.  The Packers far exceeded that.

If he takes McLaurin over Sternberger in the 3rd, it's arguably a top 10 draft of any Packers GM, maybe ever. We were that close.

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39 minutes ago, R T said:

I like DrAV as a measuring stick for 3rd and 4th year drafts. Now if people really wanted to get a better view of how well their FO did, they could take the draft value of all the teams draft picks based on the value chart of where they selected and divide that total by the total DrAV number to get an average per draft value point. That gives a better idea on how well they did based on what they were working with.   

sounds like a good project for you to tackle!!!!

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Draft capital from 2019

 

 

  Draft capital
Ari 4294.9
OAK/LV 3913.7
SF 3546.2
NYG 3443.7
GB 2733.8
NYJ 2672.4
TB 2561.4
Jax 2458.6
Buf 2256.4
Det 2180.1
WAS 2129.6
Den 2097.4
CIN 2060.6
ATL 1869.1
PIT 1862.3
Car 1728.2
SEA 1682.4
Hou 1668.9
NE 1645.3
IND 1571.4
TEN 1544.2
PHI 1540
MIN 1528.8
MIA 1390.4
BAL 1211.8
LAC 1172.2
LAR 902.2
KC 803
CLE 751.2
DAL 562.3
NO 525
CHI 281.5
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6 hours ago, squire12 said:

For those who care.......

 

2019 draft with weight Career approximate Value and Draft team approximate value

 

 

Team wCaV DrAV
OAK/LV 100 100
Ari 89 89
TEN 89 89
TB 85 78
NYG 82 79
SF 82 79
WAS 80 78
Buf 74 74
MIN 70 65
LAR 69 67
MIA 65 62
GB 64 64
Jax 63 56
Den 60 56
SEA 60 60
Det 57 45
PIT 57 57
NE 53 50
CIN 52 49
KC 51 51
BAL 50 50
IND 48 48
ATL 47 47
Hou 46 46
CLE 40 39
LAC 40 40
NO 34 34
Car 33 33
DAL 33 32
NYJ 32 30
PHI 28 28
CHI 26 25

 

 

 

How do they get to these numbers?

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2 hours ago, R T said:

I like DrAV as a measuring stick for 3rd and 4th year drafts. Now if people really wanted to get a better view of how well their FO did, they could take the draft value of all the teams draft picks based on the value chart of where they selected and divide that total by the total DrAV number to get an average per draft value point. That gives a better idea on how well they did based on what they were working with.   

Yeah that's how I went about it, didn't calculate but did some mental math as I looked at each team.  We had a lot of draft capital that year. We did a good job with it. A cold spell after Rd 2 prevents an A grade - I want to at least get some rotational backups that last more than two seasons somewhere.

 

Don't worry @squire12 if I have time I'll look into that equation this weekend, it's the wife's birthday though so I may not have the time. Thanks for posting the capital with the DRav numbers.

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10 hours ago, squire12 said:

Buffalo, SF, Tennessee,  TB, Arizona, Raiders, Miami, Washington 

San Fran, Tampa and Tennessee at a push I think had better drafts than the Packers.

Arizona got Murray with the first pick of entire draft and I can't see much else than that. Byron Murphy had 4 picks last year but had done diddly up to that point. Wouldn't place them above the Packers.

Buffalo an interesting one. No studs but good role players. Ed Oliver looks like a player but picked at 9, I would certainly prefer Gary over him. Cody Ford, looking at PFF has poor ratings, never rated higher than 53, and gave up 7 sacks in his rookie year, other than don't know much about him. Singletary is a nice complementary back, never cracked over 1000 yards, good player. I like Dawson Knox a lot, wish we had his over Jace. This is a tougher one but I would still probably go Packers over Buffalo as I see Gary and Jenkins being much superior choices over anything Buffalo got and Buffalo were picking before the Packers.

For the Raiders Crosby and Renfrow, especially where they got them is very impressive. Trouble with the Raiders is they had 3 first rounders and only Josh Jacobs is any decent. Also they screwed the 4th pick of the draft. Foster Moreau is an emerging TE. Would I prefer Crosby, Renfrow and Jacobs over Gary, Jenkins and Savage? Possibly. However, if we had the picks the Raiders had and got those same players, I think as fans we would be a bit disappointed just for the poor selections in the first round. I could agree they had a better draft than us if pushed.

With Miami I like Wilkins and was thinking the Packers should have taken him at 12. Van Ginkel, I never heard of but a little research and he seems to be a player. Myles Gaskin is a nice player as complementary back. Again here though I think the Packers came out better.

Washington was a team I was debating did they do better than the Packers when I looked at the teams first off. Haskins (RIP) didn't pan out. Montez Sweat is a nice player, McLaurin is a stud. None of the other names grab me. 

So whatever grade you give the Packers I feel they were in the top 5 teams that picked in the 2019 draft, my rankings would go:
#1 Tampa - Devin White, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, Mike Edwards,  Anthony Nelson, Matt Gay (in the League doing well now), Scott Miller
#2 San Fran - Bosa, Deebo, Greenlaw
#3 Tennessee - Simmons, Brown, Hooker
#4 Packers - Gary, Jenkins, Savage
#5 Raiders - Crosby, Renfrow, Jacobs, Moreau

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8 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

San Fran, Tampa and Tennessee at a push I think had better drafts than the Packers.

Arizona got Murray with the first pick of entire draft and I can't see much else than that. Byron Murphy had 4 picks last year but had done diddly up to that point. Wouldn't place them above the Packers.

Buffalo an interesting one. No studs but good role players. Ed Oliver looks like a player but picked at 9, I would certainly prefer Gary over him. Cody Ford, looking at PFF has poor ratings, never rated higher than 53, and gave up 7 sacks in his rookie year, other than don't know much about him. Singletary is a nice complementary back, never cracked over 1000 yards, good player. I like Dawson Knox a lot, wish we had his over Jace. This is a tougher one but I would still probably go Packers over Buffalo as I see Gary and Jenkins being much superior choices over anything Buffalo got and Buffalo were picking before the Packers.

For the Raiders Crosby and Renfrow, especially where they got them is very impressive. Trouble with the Raiders is they had 3 first rounders and only Josh Jacobs is any decent. Also they screwed the 4th pick of the draft. Foster Moreau is an emerging TE. Would I prefer Crosby, Renfrow and Jacobs over Gary, Jenkins and Savage? Possibly. However, if we had the picks the Raiders had and got those same players, I think as fans we would be a bit disappointed just for the poor selections in the first round. I could agree they had a better draft than us if pushed.

With Miami I like Wilkins and was thinking the Packers should have taken him at 12. Van Ginkel, I never heard of but a little research and he seems to be a player. Myles Gaskin is a nice player as complementary back. Again here though I think the Packers came out better.

Washington was a team I was debating did they do better than the Packers when I looked at the teams first off. Haskins (RIP) didn't pan out. Montez Sweat is a nice player, McLaurin is a stud. None of the other names grab me. 

So whatever grade you give the Packers I feel they were in the top 5 teams that picked in the 2019 draft, my rankings would go:
#1 Tampa - Devin White, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, Mike Edwards,  Anthony Nelson, Matt Gay (in the League doing well now), Scott Miller
#2 San Fran - Bosa, Deebo, Greenlaw
#3 Tennessee - Simmons, Brown, Hooker
#4 Packers - Gary, Jenkins, Savage
#5 Raiders - Crosby, Renfrow, Jacobs, Moreau

You should keep reading and look at some other valuations.

Might be eye opening

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