squire12 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 For those who care....... 2019 draft with weight Career approximate Value and Draft team approximate value Team wCaV DrAV OAK/LV 100 100 Ari 89 89 TEN 89 89 TB 85 78 NYG 82 79 SF 82 79 WAS 80 78 Buf 74 74 MIN 70 65 LAR 69 67 MIA 65 62 GB 64 64 Jax 63 56 Den 60 56 SEA 60 60 Det 57 45 PIT 57 57 NE 53 50 CIN 52 49 KC 51 51 BAL 50 50 IND 48 48 ATL 47 47 Hou 46 46 CLE 40 39 LAC 40 40 NO 34 34 Car 33 33 DAL 33 32 NYJ 32 30 PHI 28 28 CHI 26 25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 20 hours ago, VonKarman said: Well, depends on how you grade. A+ for me is getting Russ with the 75th pick or something similar (something like the 2017 Saints draft). I'd give this draft a B o B-, since it's a pretty good draft. But then again, I'd grade a C a decent draft and give a D/F to around 10-12 teams each year. If you give this draft an A+ how are you able to distinguish it from the really really good ones? One pick alone shouldn't dictate draft grades. I mean, the Seahawks passed on Russell Wilson twice in 2012. You have to grade the picks based on where the respective teams were picking, and how the prospects were viewed. Using the 2019 draft as an example, I'd argue that the Packers picking Rashan Gary at 12 was more impressive then the 49ers picking Nick Bosa at 2. Bosa was viewed as the BPA in the draft class, and they 49ers took the highest graded player after the Cardinals took Kyler Murray. Most weren't even convinced that Rashan Gary was worth investing a FRP into, and most had Brian Burns ranked ahead of him. I give the 49ers a TON of credit for the Deebo Samuel selection as I would the Elgton Jenkins selection. I'd say the 49ers and Packers both nailed that draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 21 hours ago, Patriotplayer90 said: I think one more starting caliber player, or Savage becoming a top safety makes this an A+. You hope to get 2-3 starters, not borderline All-Pro players, in the draft. The Packers far exceeded that. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, CWood21 said: One pick alone shouldn't dictate draft grades. I mean, the Seahawks passed on Russell Wilson twice in 2012. You have to grade the picks based on where the respective teams were picking, and how the prospects were viewed. Using the 2019 draft as an example, I'd argue that the Packers picking Rashan Gary at 12 was more impressive then the 49ers picking Nick Bosa at 2. Bosa was viewed as the BPA in the draft class, and they 49ers took the highest graded player after the Cardinals took Kyler Murray. Most weren't even convinced that Rashan Gary was worth investing a FRP into, and most had Brian Burns ranked ahead of him. I give the 49ers a TON of credit for the Deebo Samuel selection as I would the Elgton Jenkins selection. I'd say the 49ers and Packers both nailed that draft. I agree with the Nick Bosa take. Each pick has a different weight and that should be taken into account when grading. In a similar way, Gary has turned out to be areally good pick, but it is also true that he didn't hit it right off the bat and that should be taken into account (although it shouldn't carry that much weight). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R T Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, squire12 said: For those who care....... 2019 draft with weight Career approximate Value and Draft team approximate value Team wCaV DrAV OAK/LV 100 100 Ari 89 89 TEN 89 89 TB 85 78 NYG 82 79 SF 82 79 WAS 80 78 Buf 74 74 MIN 70 65 LAR 69 67 MIA 65 62 GB 64 64 Jax 63 56 Den 60 56 SEA 60 60 Det 57 45 PIT 57 57 NE 53 50 CIN 52 49 KC 51 51 BAL 50 50 IND 48 48 ATL 47 47 Hou 46 46 CLE 40 39 LAC 40 40 NO 34 34 Car 33 33 DAL 33 32 NYJ 32 30 PHI 28 28 CHI 26 25 I like DrAV as a measuring stick for 3rd and 4th year drafts. Now if people really wanted to get a better view of how well their FO did, they could take the draft value of all the teams draft picks based on the value chart of where they selected and divide that total by the total DrAV number to get an average per draft value point. That gives a better idea on how well they did based on what they were working with. Edited June 2, 2022 by R T 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 40 minutes ago, CWood21 said: One pick alone shouldn't dictate draft grades. I mean, the Seahawks passed on Russell Wilson twice in 2012. You have to grade the picks based on where the respective teams were picking, and how the prospects were viewed. Using the 2019 draft as an example, I'd argue that the Packers picking Rashan Gary at 12 was more impressive then the 49ers picking Nick Bosa at 2. Bosa was viewed as the BPA in the draft class, and they 49ers took the highest graded player after the Cardinals took Kyler Murray. Most weren't even convinced that Rashan Gary was worth investing a FRP into, and most had Brian Burns ranked ahead of him. I give the 49ers a TON of credit for the Deebo Samuel selection as I would the Elgton Jenkins selection. I'd say the 49ers and Packers both nailed that draft. I tend to follow this same mantra in terms of grading picks. You can also apply this directly to the Aaron Rodgers pick. While there are points to be given for taking a QB at all in round 1 there when you have Favre, I don't consider it the "best" pick of Ted's career because Rodgers fell into our lap. If Ted would have traded up to 12-15 to take Rodgers, it's a more impressive pick at that point. I think Ted's best pick in his career was actually Clay Matthews, who he traded back into the 1st round to get. For Gute, it will hard for him to ever top the 2018 draft where he traded back, got an extra 1st and then traded back up to get Jaire. A lot of points to give for those moves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, CWood21 said: You hope to get 2-3 starters, not borderline All-Pro players, in the draft. The Packers far exceeded that. If he takes McLaurin over Sternberger in the 3rd, it's arguably a top 10 draft of any Packers GM, maybe ever. We were that close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 39 minutes ago, R T said: I like DrAV as a measuring stick for 3rd and 4th year drafts. Now if people really wanted to get a better view of how well their FO did, they could take the draft value of all the teams draft picks based on the value chart of where they selected and divide that total by the total DrAV number to get an average per draft value point. That gives a better idea on how well they did based on what they were working with. sounds like a good project for you to tackle!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Draft capital from 2019 Draft capital Ari 4294.9 OAK/LV 3913.7 SF 3546.2 NYG 3443.7 GB 2733.8 NYJ 2672.4 TB 2561.4 Jax 2458.6 Buf 2256.4 Det 2180.1 WAS 2129.6 Den 2097.4 CIN 2060.6 ATL 1869.1 PIT 1862.3 Car 1728.2 SEA 1682.4 Hou 1668.9 NE 1645.3 IND 1571.4 TEN 1544.2 PHI 1540 MIN 1528.8 MIA 1390.4 BAL 1211.8 LAC 1172.2 LAR 902.2 KC 803 CLE 751.2 DAL 562.3 NO 525 CHI 281.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopackgonerd Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 6 hours ago, squire12 said: For those who care....... 2019 draft with weight Career approximate Value and Draft team approximate value Team wCaV DrAV OAK/LV 100 100 Ari 89 89 TEN 89 89 TB 85 78 NYG 82 79 SF 82 79 WAS 80 78 Buf 74 74 MIN 70 65 LAR 69 67 MIA 65 62 GB 64 64 Jax 63 56 Den 60 56 SEA 60 60 Det 57 45 PIT 57 57 NE 53 50 CIN 52 49 KC 51 51 BAL 50 50 IND 48 48 ATL 47 47 Hou 46 46 CLE 40 39 LAC 40 40 NO 34 34 Car 33 33 DAL 33 32 NYJ 32 30 PHI 28 28 CHI 26 25 How do they get to these numbers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, Gopackgonerd said: How do they get to these numbers? https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/approximate-value-methodology/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 2 hours ago, R T said: I like DrAV as a measuring stick for 3rd and 4th year drafts. Now if people really wanted to get a better view of how well their FO did, they could take the draft value of all the teams draft picks based on the value chart of where they selected and divide that total by the total DrAV number to get an average per draft value point. That gives a better idea on how well they did based on what they were working with. Yeah that's how I went about it, didn't calculate but did some mental math as I looked at each team. We had a lot of draft capital that year. We did a good job with it. A cold spell after Rd 2 prevents an A grade - I want to at least get some rotational backups that last more than two seasons somewhere. Don't worry @squire12 if I have time I'll look into that equation this weekend, it's the wife's birthday though so I may not have the time. Thanks for posting the capital with the DRav numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 10 hours ago, squire12 said: Buffalo, SF, Tennessee, TB, Arizona, Raiders, Miami, Washington San Fran, Tampa and Tennessee at a push I think had better drafts than the Packers. Arizona got Murray with the first pick of entire draft and I can't see much else than that. Byron Murphy had 4 picks last year but had done diddly up to that point. Wouldn't place them above the Packers. Buffalo an interesting one. No studs but good role players. Ed Oliver looks like a player but picked at 9, I would certainly prefer Gary over him. Cody Ford, looking at PFF has poor ratings, never rated higher than 53, and gave up 7 sacks in his rookie year, other than don't know much about him. Singletary is a nice complementary back, never cracked over 1000 yards, good player. I like Dawson Knox a lot, wish we had his over Jace. This is a tougher one but I would still probably go Packers over Buffalo as I see Gary and Jenkins being much superior choices over anything Buffalo got and Buffalo were picking before the Packers. For the Raiders Crosby and Renfrow, especially where they got them is very impressive. Trouble with the Raiders is they had 3 first rounders and only Josh Jacobs is any decent. Also they screwed the 4th pick of the draft. Foster Moreau is an emerging TE. Would I prefer Crosby, Renfrow and Jacobs over Gary, Jenkins and Savage? Possibly. However, if we had the picks the Raiders had and got those same players, I think as fans we would be a bit disappointed just for the poor selections in the first round. I could agree they had a better draft than us if pushed. With Miami I like Wilkins and was thinking the Packers should have taken him at 12. Van Ginkel, I never heard of but a little research and he seems to be a player. Myles Gaskin is a nice player as complementary back. Again here though I think the Packers came out better. Washington was a team I was debating did they do better than the Packers when I looked at the teams first off. Haskins (RIP) didn't pan out. Montez Sweat is a nice player, McLaurin is a stud. None of the other names grab me. So whatever grade you give the Packers I feel they were in the top 5 teams that picked in the 2019 draft, my rankings would go: #1 Tampa - Devin White, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, Mike Edwards, Anthony Nelson, Matt Gay (in the League doing well now), Scott Miller #2 San Fran - Bosa, Deebo, Greenlaw #3 Tennessee - Simmons, Brown, Hooker #4 Packers - Gary, Jenkins, Savage #5 Raiders - Crosby, Renfrow, Jacobs, Moreau Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brit Pack said: San Fran, Tampa and Tennessee at a push I think had better drafts than the Packers. Arizona got Murray with the first pick of entire draft and I can't see much else than that. Byron Murphy had 4 picks last year but had done diddly up to that point. Wouldn't place them above the Packers. Buffalo an interesting one. No studs but good role players. Ed Oliver looks like a player but picked at 9, I would certainly prefer Gary over him. Cody Ford, looking at PFF has poor ratings, never rated higher than 53, and gave up 7 sacks in his rookie year, other than don't know much about him. Singletary is a nice complementary back, never cracked over 1000 yards, good player. I like Dawson Knox a lot, wish we had his over Jace. This is a tougher one but I would still probably go Packers over Buffalo as I see Gary and Jenkins being much superior choices over anything Buffalo got and Buffalo were picking before the Packers. For the Raiders Crosby and Renfrow, especially where they got them is very impressive. Trouble with the Raiders is they had 3 first rounders and only Josh Jacobs is any decent. Also they screwed the 4th pick of the draft. Foster Moreau is an emerging TE. Would I prefer Crosby, Renfrow and Jacobs over Gary, Jenkins and Savage? Possibly. However, if we had the picks the Raiders had and got those same players, I think as fans we would be a bit disappointed just for the poor selections in the first round. I could agree they had a better draft than us if pushed. With Miami I like Wilkins and was thinking the Packers should have taken him at 12. Van Ginkel, I never heard of but a little research and he seems to be a player. Myles Gaskin is a nice player as complementary back. Again here though I think the Packers came out better. Washington was a team I was debating did they do better than the Packers when I looked at the teams first off. Haskins (RIP) didn't pan out. Montez Sweat is a nice player, McLaurin is a stud. None of the other names grab me. So whatever grade you give the Packers I feel they were in the top 5 teams that picked in the 2019 draft, my rankings would go: #1 Tampa - Devin White, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, Mike Edwards, Anthony Nelson, Matt Gay (in the League doing well now), Scott Miller #2 San Fran - Bosa, Deebo, Greenlaw #3 Tennessee - Simmons, Brown, Hooker #4 Packers - Gary, Jenkins, Savage #5 Raiders - Crosby, Renfrow, Jacobs, Moreau You should keep reading and look at some other valuations. Might be eye opening Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, squire12 said: You should keep reading and look at some other valuations. Might be eye opening Give me some names as they really don't jump out to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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