If Chicago ends up with a bottom two record, does Fields get traded?

[Blue]

13 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

Marcus was below average in 2016?

Yes, lol

12 minutes ago, squire12 said:

 

So how many rookie contract QB total have " led their team" to a top 3 pick?

Then sort them into panned out vs not.  Then you can assess the likelihood of it happening.  

How far back we want to go? 2019 sound fair?

Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, RG3, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford. And that's just the 1st round picks! The list gets really exciting if we include the 2nd+ rounders like DeShone Kizer.

You can imagine my shock that JaMarcus Russell managed to miss out on this list.

[StatKing]

On 7/28/2022 at 2:28 PM, ClutchDJ said:

The consensus seems to be Chicago will bottom out with a bottom 3 record this year with some even saying they’ll be the worst.

 

With that said, do you think this could be a similar situation to Rosen? Does Chicago go for Bryce Young or CJ Stroud next year?

If he looks as bad as he did last year I think its a no brainer. You move on. Regardless of record. I know I'm biased but Fields was absolutely god awful last year. His pocket presence is almost non existent, he stares WRs down and he has no understanding of when to use his legs. I honestly wouldnt be surprised if he's benched halfway through the season.

[squire12]

21 minutes ago, Blue said:

Yes, lol

How far back we want to go? 2019 sound fair?

Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, RG3, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford. And that's just the 1st round picks! The list gets really exciting if we include the 2nd+ rounders like DeShone Kizer.

You can imagine my shock that JaMarcus Russell managed to miss out on this list.

Interesting.   What's your working definition of " panned out"?

What year did Washington pick top 3 after selecting RG3?  Tennessee with Mariota?  Not factoring in Bradford only starting 7 games in 2013, team was 3-4 at the time?

 

I think this leads to a few things.

1.  A high % of QB will " not pan out" (whatever measure that is being based on)

2.  Rookie QB that are the main starter 12-13 ish games whose team finishes with a bottom 3 record / top 3 draft pick have a difficult time " panning out".

 

[CP3MVP]

41 minutes ago, Blue said:

Yes, lol

How far back we want to go? 2019 sound fair?

Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, RG3, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford. And that's just the 1st round picks! The list gets really exciting if we include the 2nd+ rounders like DeShone Kizer.

You can imagine my shock that JaMarcus Russell managed to miss out on this list.

How was he below average?

 

The dude who threw 26 TDs to 9 picks surrounded by average at best WRs? Dude was the offensive player of the month for November that year 

[HoboRocket]

1 hour ago, Blue said:

Marcus Mariota has been below-average at his absolute best and no one in their right mind would say that the Titans were right to stick with him as long as they did.

Green Bay hasn't picked in the top 3 in over 30 years. Actually read what I wrote before you respond again.

He's actually been pushing top-10 at best, but typically just solid, and sometimes terrible. But a 12-18 QB who gets injured and misses considerable time every single season is not going to lead to wins, and is not worth investing the type of resources that veteran QBs command.

[Blue]

27 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Interesting.   What's your working definition of " panned out"?

What year did Washington pick top 3 after selecting RG3?  Tennessee with Mariota?  Not factoring in Bradford only starting 7 games in 2013, team was 3-4 at the time?

 

I think this leads to a few things.

1.  A high % of QB will " not pan out" (whatever measure that is being based on)

2.  Rookie QB that are the main starter 12-13 ish games whose team finishes with a bottom 3 record / top 3 draft pick have a difficult time " panning out".

 

You can scratch RG3 from that list, I was looking at the wrong season. Tennessee was picking No. 2 overall the year after drafting Mariota. Bradford only started 10 games in 2011, so if you want to remove him from the list as well, fair enough (though Kellen Clemens was arguably the better QB that season, if you go by stats alone).

I don't really think defining "panned out" matters when that's the list of QBs you're working with.

19 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

How was he below average?

 

The dude who threw 26 TDs to 9 picks surrounded by average at best WRs? Dude was the offensive player of the month for November that year 

 

2 minutes ago, HoboRocket said:

He's actually been pushing top-10 at best, but typically just solid, and sometimes terrible. But a 12-18 QB who gets injured and misses considerable time every single season is not going to lead to wins, and is not worth investing the type of resources that veteran QBs command.

Mariota's 2016 per-play numbers were roughly in line with his career averages apart from the fluky TD %age. He was a slightly above .500 quarterback with a team that went 30-13 once they benched him for Ryan Tannehill, who is not appearing on anybody's top 10 QB list. I'm not wasting my time arguing whether Marcus Mariota is a bad quarterback.

[squire12]

5 minutes ago, Blue said:

You can scratch RG3 from that list, I was looking at the wrong season. Tennessee was picking No. 2 overall the year after drafting Mariota. Bradford only started 10 games in 2011, so if you want to remove him from the list as well, fair enough (though Kellen Clemens was arguably the better QB that season, if you go by stats alone).

I don't really think defining "panned out" matters when that's the list of QBs you're working with.

 

Mariota's 2016 per-play numbers were roughly in line with his career averages apart from the fluky TD %age. He was a slightly above .500 quarterback with a team that went 30-13 once they benched him for Ryan Tannehill, who is not appearing on anybody's top 10 QB list. I'm not wasting my time arguing whether Marcus Mariota is a bad quarterback.

Bortles was the starting QB in an AFCCG.....thus the standard for panning out.

Would be interesting to see if things are different going further back.  How does "bad organization " influence things

[Blue]

11 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Bortles was the starting QB in an AFCCG.....thus the standard for panning out.

Would be interesting to see if things are different going further back.  How does "bad organization " influence things

Would you want Blake Bortles as your starting NFL quarterback?

I'm certain bad organizations influence things to some degree. But when a team goes 0-16 or 3-14 with a young QB, there's more going on. You just don't see good QBs leading their teams to fewer than 4 wins. I mean, keep in mind that these teams aren't spending big on quarterback! They can afford to put a more expensive and presumably better supporting cast around him.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Blue

[AkronsWitness]

8 hours ago, HoboRocket said:

Whoa whoa whoa. Mooney is definitely better than a 3, but guys like Allen Hurns, DJ Chark, Tavon Austin, Cordarelle Patterson, Terrelle Pryor, Cecil Shorts, Sammy Watkins, Josh Gordon, Harry Douglas, and Marquise Goodwin all had inflated stats in a single season playing in bad offenses. None of them were able to replicate that success again. And those are just examples from the past decade or so. So I can at least understand where @AkronsWitness is coming from.

[AkronsWitness]

3 hours ago, StatKing said:

If he looks as bad as he did last year I think its a no brainer. You move on. Regardless of record. I know I'm biased but Fields was absolutely god awful last year. His pocket presence is almost non existent, he stares WRs down and he has no understanding of when to use his legs. I honestly wouldnt be surprised if he's benched halfway through the season.

Yowzers whats your opinion of Trevor Lawrence's future then who looked equally, if not more, god awful while being surrounded by much better skill position players.

Edited July 30, 2022 by AkronsWitness

[JAF-N72EX]

3 hours ago, StatKing said:

If he looks as bad as he did last year I think its a no brainer. You move on. Regardless of record. I know I'm biased but Fields was absolutely god awful last year. His pocket presence is almost non existent, he stares WRs down and he has no understanding of when to use his legs. I honestly wouldnt be surprised if he's benched halfway through the season.

Now we can all say that we know atleast one person who hasn't watched Fields.

[StatKing]

44 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Now we can all say that we know atleast one person who hasn't watched Fields.

I watched pretty much every game last year. He was bad. Don't know how anyone can say otherwise. 

[JAF-N72EX]

49 minutes ago, StatKing said:

I watched pretty much every game last year. He was bad. Don't know how anyone can say otherwise. 

Clearly you didn't. Fields had a his fair share of issues last year but none of them were for the reasons you mentioned. At all.

Care to provide proof of it?

[Duluther]

12 hours ago, Ty21 said:

Lol what…? This isn’t The Force, players don’t randomly play better than they can out of necessity for the team. He was impressive in his rookie year too. Last year was a slow start but he eventually became essentially the only bright spot on offense despite Nagy’s wildly incompetent offense (literally the second he relinquished play calling on to Lazor, things got better) and the three headed loser of Dalton, Foles, and Fields. Fields takes a leap this year mostly because the offense is suited to him now, and he isn’t being plugged into The Andy Dalton Statue Offense. 
 

I don’t think Mooney is a 1 but to call him a 3 means you don’t know what you’re talking about. 

I heard a lot of Mooney talk earlier this off-season and was curious about him because, as a fan of an NFCN team, he hadn’t stuck out. I watch a couple full Bears games to primarily focus on him. Yeah, he’s really good. For sure a #2 going forward, at worst.

 

From preliminary viewings, he seems more than a speedster like Goodwin, etc. He has good body control and coordination that helps him overcome his diminutive size in sticky coverage. Much like Tyreek in this way (obviously not as good overall).

[JAF-N72EX]

4 minutes ago, Duluther said:

I heard a lot of Mooney talk earlier this off-season and was curious about him because, as a fan of an NFCN team, he hadn’t stuck out. I watch a couple full Bears games to primarily focus on him. Yeah, he’s really good. For sure a #2 going forward, at worst.

 

From preliminary viewings, he seems more than a speedster like Goodwin, etc. He has good body control and coordination that helps him overcome his diminutive size in sticky coverage. Much like Tyreek in this way (obviously not as good overall).

We're pretty high on him. He's shown to be a good #2 with alot of potential. But now he's being forced into the #1 role with a bunch of less than stellar WRs beside him and the question remains if he can live up to expectations and actually fill that role or not.