If Chicago ends up with a bottom two record, does Fields get traded?

[HoboRocket]

Also, the 2019 Cardinals got 5 whole wins while their QB got offensive Rookie of the Year and went to the Pro Bowl.

[ET80]

59 minutes ago, ClutchDJ said:

So, not the first pick(or even second pick) so it has never happened. 

Ah, the oddly specific data request that rejects any sort of circumstantial precedence. Flimsy argument is flimsy - if you’re looking to check each specific box when presenting an argument, you’re going to find the universe is an absolutely random place where anything is possible. Nobody has ever done it doesn’t predicate nobody will EVER do it. 

Absence of evidence doesn’t mean evidence of absence. 

[scar988]

21 hours ago, ClutchDJ said:

The consensus seems to be Chicago will bottom out with a bottom 3 record this year with some even saying they’ll be the worst.

 

With that said, do you think this could be a similar situation to Rosen? Does Chicago go for Bryce Young or CJ Stroud next year?

In this situation, what would it take to move with him? a 3rd? Cause if that's the case, I could see a team like Atlanta jumping in and saying, "hey, we loved him coming out, we'll do that."

[scar988]

2 hours ago, ClutchDJ said:

I never said wins are a QB stat. However, give me an example of where a team picked #1 overall despite getting at least solid play from the QB the whole season?

2004, the Chargers took Eli Manning and traded him for Phillip Rivers despite getting solid play from Brees and Flutie. 

2003, the Bengals took Carson Palmer despite John Kitna being very good.

2001, the Falcons traded up for Michael Vick despite Chris Chandler still being solid

In 1994, Jeff Blake was very good, and the Bengals still drafted No. 1 overall.

That's digging a bit, but it's not unheard of for a team to be trash with solid QB play.

[squire12]

48 minutes ago, Blue said:

No, Brees didn't. He threw 27 passes as a rookie, then went 8-8 in his second season. It was his third year, when he only played 11 games, where the Chargers were picking top-5.

As for Manning? That's one player in the last 25 years, playing on a team that was picking 1st overall the year before. If that's your only/best example, that does a whole lot more to prove the point than not.

You are right on Brees

GB was 6-10 with Rodgers his first year as a starter after going 13-3 the year prior.  

[ClutchDJ]

31 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Ah, the oddly specific data request that rejects any sort of circumstantial precedence. Flimsy argument is flimsy - if you’re looking to check each specific box when presenting an argument, you’re going to find the universe is an absolutely random place where anything is possible. Nobody has ever done it doesn’t predicate nobody will EVER do it. 

Absence of evidence doesn’t mean evidence of absence. 

Don’t get frustrated at me because ET80 didn’t answer the question correctly. 
 

I asked when has solid QB play still resulted with a team finishing with the worst record in the league/having the top pick in the draft. You gave me answer that was anything but that.

 

I stand corrected due to @HoboRocket giving me the actual correct answer in Mariota. I salute him to that. If Mariota plays the whole season, Tennessee most likely doesn’t end up with the #1 pick. Though, that gives me pause to now see where Mariota’s career has went.

Edited July 29, 2022 by ClutchDJ

[ET80]

15 minutes ago, ClutchDJ said:

Don’t get frustrated at me because ET80 didn’t answer the question correctly. 

Not frustrated, just not sure what you think you’re accomplishing by requesting such specific parameters - and helping you understand that just because it didn’t happen doesn’t mean it won’t happen. If you’re willing to open up your parameters, you’ll see it’s actually common for a team to not win despite having good QB play - which is the real crux of a discussion like this. 

Asking for who earned #1 is a null parameter, because only one team earns number #1 any given year - does that mean there’s only one bad team in the NFL that season? No, that’s silly. There are usually 5-10 bad teams out there - why exclude them because they weren’t the WORST team that year?

[scar988]

17 minutes ago, ClutchDJ said:

Don’t get frustrated at me because ET80 didn’t answer the question correctly. 
 

I asked when has solid QB play still resulted with a team finishing with the worst record in the league/having the top pick in the draft. You gave me answer that was anything but that.

 

I stand corrected due to @HoboRocket giving me the actual correct answer in Mariota. I salute him to that. If Mariota plays the whole season, Tennessee most likely doesn’t end up with the #1 pick. Though, that gives me pause to now see where Mariota’s career has went.

I thought you were asking when solid QB play the year before having the No. 1 pick led to them having it. I listed some examples of it as well. In those situations, there was solid QB play, but not great play. So they moved on with their No. 1 pick to a new QB or had faith (like Cincy with Blake) and took something else. If we're being honest, Atlanta last year was a situation of Solid QB play preventing a No. 1 pick to get a QB but it was a weak draft and honestly might have been the best thing for them.

[Dr A W Niloc]

16 hours ago, Vorsutus said:

To Montreal for a lifetime supply of maple syrup 

Not a lifetime supply, certainly, but at least we'd learn how to say "WTF?" in French.

Obviously, a failed Chicago QB will have no trade value.  If Fields shows any promise whatsoever the team will keep him.  (It would help if their OC could design an attack for a QB who can't hit moving targets but is pinpoint accurate when throwing to spots on the field.)

2022 will be a mixed bag for the Bears.  Yes, they are dead last in aggregate ratings but their O-Line is not worse than average and they have Mooney and Montgomery.  Speaking of the latter, the Bears face the softest run defenders in the league this year.  Unfortunately, in Fantasy terms at least, their defense faces the NFL's most successful offenses, such that the team might abandon the run once they're behind.  (Nevertheless, Montgomery at #35 and Khalil Herbert at #144 are your Fantasy Tip of the Day.)

Barring a breakout year from Fields, Chicago will be drafting in the top 4.  Were I in their war room I'd be against wasting another 1st round pick on a QB and in favor of [trading down and] gorging on defensive talent (along with a monster Center in Round #2).  Visions of '85!

[malak1]

2 hours ago, scar988 said:

In this situation, what would it take to move with him? a 3rd? Cause if that's the case, I could see a team like Atlanta jumping in and saying, "hey, we loved him coming out, we'll do that."

You guys will have Bryce Young by then. 

[scar988]

8 minutes ago, malak1 said:

You guys will have Bryce Young by then. 

I'll be honest with you, if Fields can be had before the draft, the Falcons would probably go Will Anderson. If Desmond Ridder comes in and looks great, then they may pass on QB in this draft. And even then, I think they'd go STroud over Young for what Smith runs.

[SkippyX]

@ClutchDJ 2015 Rivers had 66.1%(7th) completions 4792 (2nd) yards 29(t-12th) TDs 13 picks for a 93.8 (12th) rating 

The Chargers were 4-12 and 1 game from the 1st pick at 3-13

Bad run game, bad D, terrible special teams

[Blue]

3 hours ago, HoboRocket said:

Tennessee Titans. The team that picked #1 overall. Mariota wasn't all-world, but he was pretty good when he was on the field (only played 12 games) and I believe he played in the Pro Bowl as an alternate. With absolutely nothing around him on offense.

Marcus Mariota has been below-average at his absolute best and no one in their right mind would say that the Titans were right to stick with him as long as they did.

3 hours ago, squire12 said:

You are right on Brees

GB was 6-10 with Rodgers his first year as a starter after going 13-3 the year prior.  

Green Bay hasn't picked in the top 3 in over 30 years. Actually read what I wrote before you respond again.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Blue

[CP3MVP]

36 minutes ago, Blue said:

Marcus Mariota has been below-average at his absolute best and no one in their right mind would say that the Titans were right to stick with him as long as they did.

Green Bay hasn't picked in the top 3 in over 30 years. Actually read what I wrote before you respond again.

Marcus was below average in 2016?

[squire12]

16 hours ago, Blue said:

This is a silly question. How many QBs on rookie contracts have "led" their team to a top-3 draft pick and panned out as good players? We're not talking about guys like Matthew Stafford who got hurt and missed a chunk of the season, as I'm assuming Fields (reasonably) gets a pass if he's hurt and not playing part of the year.

QBs matter so much to a team's win-loss record that if a guy can't lead his team out of the basement of the league, he's not good and probably never will be. Of course the team should move on from him, it's just a question as to whether anyone else wants him enough to trade for him.

All that said, I don't think Chicago is the worst team in the league. Houston, Jacksonville, Seattle, Atlanta, Carolina, and Detroit all have pretty brutal rosters too.

 

35 minutes ago, Blue said:

Marcus Mariota has been below-average at his absolute best and no one in their right mind would say that the Titans were right to stick with him as long as they did.

Green Bay hasn't picked in the top 3 in over 30 years. Actually read what I wrote before you respond again.

So how many rookie contract QB total have " led their team" to a top 3 pick?

Then sort them into panned out vs not.  Then you can assess the likelihood of it happening.