2023 NFL Draft Prospects

[TankWilliams]

10 hours ago, topwop1 said:

Because out of the teams that really need to draft a QB, 2 of them are sitting in the top-4 picks so you figure Bears would still be able to get either Anderson or Carter if the furthest they hypothetically moved down was to pick #4

Yeah, but that assumes they like both Anderson and Carter, if you fall to 4, you don't control which of those 2 you get most likely.  Especially in a scenario where possibly DeForest Buckner is involved in a trade, that may impact who they would want to have at #4.

[AZBearsFan]

52 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

Yeah, but that assumes they like both Anderson and Carter, if you fall to 4, you don't control which of those 2 you get most likely.  Especially in a scenario where possibly DeForest Buckner is involved in a trade, that may impact who they would want to have at #4.

The idea of Da’Ron Payne AND Jalen Carter at DT for us next year and for the foreseeable future sounds incredibly enticing. I’m an Anderson over Carter guy, but in that scenario our DEs would face almost exclusively one on one blocks in pass rush situations. Regardless of who they are, that should have a drastically positive impact on their pass rush win rate.

And yes, I’m fully aware I’m setting myself up for disappointment lol. 

[Bigbear72]

14 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

The idea of Da’Ron Payne AND Jalen Carter at DT for us next year and for the foreseeable future sounds incredibly enticing. I’m an Anderson over Carter guy, but in that scenario our DEs would face almost exclusively one on one blocks in pass rush situations. Regardless of who they are, that should have a drastically positive impact on their pass rush win rate.

And yes, I’m fully aware I’m setting myself up for disappointment lol. 

My perfect scenario involves us signing Payne, then trading back to the Colts in the trade that would include Buckner and then drafting Anderson. So yeah, right there with you Bud.

[TankWilliams]

14 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

My perfect scenario involves us signing Payne, then trading back to the Colts in the trade that would include Buckner and then drafting Anderson. So yeah, right there with you Bud.

As long as we are playing with hypotheticals, what happens if Anderson is taken at #3?  You wouldn't need Carter there, do you take him anyway, reach for someone else, or try to trade down?  What if no one wants to trade for 4?  I just think that Poles will be happy to have his top choice no matter what at 1, which is why trades at 1 don't happen very much.  I'd love to trade down and have it all fall into our lap, but the odds of staying at that spot are probably better than 50/50.

[dll2000]

I think we are going to trade down and are likely to not get Anderson or Carter, and it doesn’t break my heart because I think both can absolutely be great, but both also have a few red flags for bust potential.  

They aren’t totally clean prospects.

[Bigbear72]

3 hours ago, TankWilliams said:

As long as we are playing with hypotheticals, what happens if Anderson is taken at #3?  You wouldn't need Carter there, do you take him anyway, reach for someone else, or try to trade down?  What if no one wants to trade for 4?  I just think that Poles will be happy to have his top choice no matter what at 1, which is why trades at 1 don't happen very much.  I'd love to trade down and have it all fall into our lap, but the odds of staying at that spot are probably better than 50/50.

You would try to trade down in the scenario. If that doesn't happen then I suppose you could take your edge or CB of choice there. But hopefully another trade down is possible.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Bigbear72

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

I think we are going to trade down and are likely to not get Anderson or Carter, and it doesn’t break my heart because I think both can absolutely be great, but both also have a few red flags for bust potential.  

They aren’t totally clean prospects.

If we can get 3 different prospects from top 40ish picks or so between this year and next year I would rather have that than either Carter or Anderson.

If Carter or Anderson turns out to be an Aaron Donald level player than that was a mistake.   

Or conversely if we make 3 bad picks or take a RB like Raiders did, it would have been a mistake.

But I think given my druthers if it was me or if it is Poles drafting, I'll take the 3 high picks combined value and contribution to team versus Carter or Anderson.

 

[Ty21]

On 1/18/2023 at 10:01 AM, Sugashane said:

While it likely wouldn't be my pick, if the Bears drafted Gibbs in the 2nd I wouldn't be upset in the slightest. Great hands, explosive, has the speed to run away from defenders, and runs with more power than you would expect from a 200lb guy.

He’d be the most exciting rb we’ve drafted since like Walter Payton based on what he offers (Alvin Kamara comparison for skills, ~size, and balance) and how we could use him (faster Deebo) and he’s only 20. But with how many holes we have, how many projected rbs there will be in free agency, if we go rb in 2 it would hurt. But totally be a Chicago move still. 

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, Bigbear72 said:

You would try to trade down in the scenario. If that doesn't happy then I suppose you could take your edge or CB of choice there. But hopefully another trade down is possible.

If we move down from 1 to 4 and then the top 3 picks are QB-Anderson-Carter I agree 4 becomes another potential prime trade down spot, especially with SEA or DET potentially taking a QB at 5 or 6 or themselves being potential trade up spots for QB-needy teams depending on what happens with Geno or Goff between now and then. If not, and you’re “stuck” picking at 4, I would think Myles Murphy, Tyree Wilson or Paris Johnson Jr. would all get really strong consideration. For me to take a corner there would require a Sauce Gardner-level prospect, and I don’t see one in this draft. 

After trading down from 1 to 4 pre-draft in this hypothetical, Poles will certainly have a plan in place should this exact situation arise, and likely will have already had dialogue with other potential trade up teams to 4 should things play out this as well. Such “pre-work” is standard practice. 

[Bigbear72]

25 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

If we move down from 1 to 4 and then the top 3 picks are QB-Anderson-Carter I agree 4 becomes another potential prime trade down spot, especially with SEA or DET potentially taking a QB at 5 or 6 or themselves being potential trade up spots for QB-needy teams depending on what happens with Geno or Goff between now and then. If not, and you’re “stuck” picking at 4, I would think Myles Murphy, Tyree Wilson or Paris Johnson Jr. would all get really strong consideration. For me to take a corner there would require a Sauce Gardner-level prospect, and I don’t see one in this draft. 

After trading down from 1 to 4 pre-draft in this hypothetical, Poles will certainly have a plan in place should this exact situation arise, and likely will have already had dialogue with other potential trade up teams to 4 should things play out this as well. Such “pre-work” is standard practice. 

Totally agree here. I'd also like to add that in the above scenario, if we got Payne and Buckner, and had to "settle" for slightly reaching for someone at 4 so be it. It think sometimes we get stuck on the fact that if a player doesn't go at his perceived predraft slot that it's really a big deal and I don't think that it is as big of a deal to teams as it is to fans. We are constantly in this mindframe that if we don't get absolutely all of the juice from the lemon then we have failed. But if the lemonade is really good and refreshing does it really matter?

[Sugashane]

8 hours ago, TankWilliams said:

As long as we are playing with hypotheticals, what happens if Anderson is taken at #3?  You wouldn't need Carter there, do you take him anyway, reach for someone else, or try to trade down?  What if no one wants to trade for 4?  I just think that Poles will be happy to have his top choice no matter what at 1, which is why trades at 1 don't happen very much.  I'd love to trade down and have it all fall into our lap, but the odds of staying at that spot are probably better than 50/50.

I'd have zero issues taking Carter still. If my best DL group has 3 DTs then one is going to be the big DE. If McPhee can play OLB and Houston play DE/OLB I have zero issue having Carter as a base in who kicks inside on passing downs. 

[blkwdw13]

12 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

The idea of Da’Ron Payne AND Jalen Carter at DT for us next year and for the foreseeable future sounds incredibly enticing. I’m an Anderson over Carter guy, but in that scenario our DEs would face almost exclusively one on one blocks in pass rush situations. Regardless of who they are, that should have a drastically positive impact on their pass rush win rate.

And yes, I’m fully aware I’m setting myself up for disappointment lol. 

While at the same time not allowing the QBs to step up in the pocket at all creating a lot of other opportunities.

[TankWilliams]

15 hours ago, Sugashane said:

I'd have zero issues taking Carter still. If my best DL group has 3 DTs then one is going to be the big DE. If McPhee can play OLB and Houston play DE/OLB I have zero issue having Carter as a base in who kicks inside on passing downs. 

I'm being really nitpicky, I know, but if we are looking at McPhee and Houston as examples of moving players to new positions, I don't get the warm and fuzzies about that idea.

Edited January 20, 2023 by TankWilliams

[AZBearsFan]

23 hours ago, TankWilliams said:

I just think that Poles will be happy to have his top choice no matter what at 1, which is why trades at 1 don't happen very much.

Personally, I think trades don’t happen at 1 very much because the teams that finish with the worst record in the league every year almost always needs a QB. Going back to 2010, there have only been non-QBs taken 1st overall in 4 of the 13 drafts:

2022 Travon Walker - JAX just took Lawrence 1st the year before. 1st QB taken was at pick 20 (Pickett). 

2017 Myles Garrett - only QB taken top 10 was Trubisky, and we know how that went. Garrett was head and shoulders above all other potential #1 picks as a prospect (the rest of the top 10 were Mitch, Solomon Thomas, Fournette, Corey Davis, Jamal Adams, Mike Williams, McCaffrey, John Ross and Mahomes (who in retrospect should’ve gone higher but who wasn’t looked at at all as a potential #1 overall pick)). 

2014 Jadeveon Clowney - only QB taken top 20 was Blake Bortles at 3, and we know how that went.

2013 Eric Fisher - only 1 QB taken in R1, and EJ Manuel was both a massive reach at 16 and a colossal bust. This was one of the weakest 1st rounds in a long time. 7 of the 32 picks were out of the league entirely within 5 years. Only 2 of the top 24 (Lane Johnson and Justin Pugh) made it to year 10 in the league, and only 1 (Johnson) remains with the team that drafted him. Round 3 actually ended up producing more high end talent that year than round 1 (Travis Kelce, Tyrann Mathieu, Terron Armstead & Keenan Allen).

My point in all of that is, teams picking 1st that needed a QB took one when a QB at 1 was a worthy pick, and those that didn’t need one traded the pick when a QB at 1 was a worthy pick. This year there are a few QBs rated in the top 5 prospects by most who would be worthy of selection 1st overall, and we don’t need one. Plus, there’s a very real chance that if we trade down with HOU or IND he’ll get a player he would’ve taken 1st at 2 or 4 anyway. 

[Sugashane]

49 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

I'm being really nitpicky, I know, but if we are looking at McPhee and Houston as examples of moving players to new positions, I don't get the warm and fuzzies about that idea.

I get it, I was more speaking of how limited they were athletically in comparison. Jalen isn't going to have measurables that make people confuse him for Myles Garrett, but I think when it comes to penetration and attacking a gap he can do it anywhere along the line. He might not have the length you normally want from a DE but his hand use is damn good, he's brutally strong, and has a great first step.