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GDT: Week 2 @ Packers (Eberflus' Prime Time Debut: End The Streak)


JAF-N72EX

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8 hours ago, Bigbear72 said:

I disagree about Kmet. We may want a more dynamic playmaker at TE but Kmet is not just a borderline starter. He is not a superstar but he would start on a lot of teams in the league. He is middle of the road at worst.

I would LOVE to be wrong about CK  

 I just don't see anything more than a depth piece/fringe starter ....he blocks well enough to be an every down TE but nothing special or dynamic at all  

I wish he were middle of the road at worst, but I just  don't see it  ....at least he's getting SOME yards after contact this season and not going straight DOWN after being touched or breathed on. I've never seen a guy his size get tackled so easily  

 Anyways I would love to be dead wrong and see him explode but I've seen too much of him to believe anything like that. hes a very good #2, we need 2 ..:.imho no way is he a #1

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1 hour ago, SLCbear said:

I would LOVE to be wrong about CK  

 I just don't see anything more than a depth piece/fringe starter ....he blocks well enough to be an every down TE but nothing special or dynamic at all  

I wish he were middle of the road at worst, but I just  don't see it  ....at least he's getting SOME yards after contact this season and not going straight DOWN after being touched or breathed on. I've never seen a guy his size get tackled so easily  

 Anyways I would love to be dead wrong and see him explode but I've seen too much of him to believe anything like that. hes a very good #2, we need 2 ..:.imho no way is he a #1

Agreed on Kmet.  He's a solid blocker but he hasn't shown to be much of a receiving threat.  You could argue he's middle of the pack but that has more to do with the lack of good talent around the league than it does Kmet.  IMO There's a large gap between the great TEs (Kelce, Kittle) and good ones (Henry, Waller, Andrews,etc). Then a small gap between them and ascending guys with #1 potential like Fitts and Hock.  After that there's another large gap featuring a bunch of middling unproven guys and this where is where Kmet stands until proven otherwise.

That said, TE is a position with a steep learning curve and Nagy's offense did him no favors..... so the jury is still out.  Hopefully this is the year he breaks out and that's what Getsy brought in to do.

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Welcome to All-32, a game-by-game preview of every matchup on the NFL slate each week. The goal is to provide a look at the most critical part of each game with a marriage of data and film study. As the season rolls along, the focus will narrow in on the specifics, but for this week, many of the featured players and units are big-picture projections for the teams in question.

If you're interested in our game picks, you can find them on this page.

Let's get to it. All times listed as Eastern.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers—Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

Key Player/Unit: GB Secondary

Last week's monsoon game doesn't tell us anything about the Bears (or the 49ers, for that matter) passing game. Not from a quality standpoint, anyway. Maybe we can take something away from the heavy-personnel, under-center approach that Chicago wanted to lean on until the game went down to the wire, but that was already to be expected of them under new coordinator Luke Getsy.

The Packers secondary, on the other hand, played a game in a beautiful dome that protected them from Mother Nature and they still got ravaged repeatedly by a wide-open Justin Jefferson. Multiple times on Sunday, the Packers secondary struggled to pass routes off correctly and left the best non-Davante Adams receiver in the NFL to run wild over the middle of the field.

 

In the short video above, The Athletic's Nate Tice explains how the Packers busted one of their Cover-3 coverages and let Jefferson run free for a touchdown on a deep crossing route. While that was the most egregious example, the Packers had issues communicating and passing things off all day, on top of the handful of instances where they tried things like lining up Preston Smith over Jefferson in the slot.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/all-32/2022/all-32-how-bears-can-attack-packers-sunday-night

 

This is good game for Mooney to show he can be a #1. 

 

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3 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Agreed on Kmet.  He's a solid blocker but he hasn't shown to be much of a receiving threat.  You could argue he's middle of the pack but that has more to do with the lack of good talent around the league than it does Kmet.  IMO There's a large gap between the great TEs (Kelce, Kittle) and good ones (Henry, Waller, Andrews,etc). Then a small gap between them and ascending guys with #1 potential like Fitts and Hock.  After that there's another large gap featuring a bunch of middling unproven guys and this where is where Kmet stands until proven otherwise.

That said, TE is a position with a steep learning curve and Nagy's offense did him no favors..... so the jury is still out.  Hopefully this is the year he breaks out and that's what Getsy brought in to do.

This is exactly why he is middle of the road. There is "lack of talent" around the league so that makes the special TEs stars. As I stated he is not a star. The guys you listed are special. I cannot recall a point in the history of the league where there were more special TEs at the same time. That still does not take away from the fact that CK would start for at least a dozen other teams.

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10 hours ago, SLCbear said:

I would LOVE to be wrong about CK  

 I just don't see anything more than a depth piece/fringe starter ....he blocks well enough to be an every down TE but nothing special or dynamic at all  

I wish he were middle of the road at worst, but I just  don't see it  ....at least he's getting SOME yards after contact this season and not going straight DOWN after being touched or breathed on. I've never seen a guy his size get tackled so easily  

 Anyways I would love to be dead wrong and see him explode but I've seen too much of him to believe anything like that. hes a very good #2, we need 2 ..:.imho no way is he a #1

Did you not watch a single snap of Kellen Davis or Adam Shaheen.

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7 hours ago, Bigbear72 said:

This is exactly why he is middle of the road. There is "lack of talent" around the league so that makes the special TEs stars. As I stated he is not a star. The guys you listed are special. I cannot recall a point in the history of the league where there were more special TEs at the same time. That still does not take away from the fact that CK would start for at least a dozen other teams.

He's middle of the road because he hasn't proven to be better than half the league.  Just because a player would start does not make them good. 

How many tight ends do you think are better than Kmet right now? 

I like Kmet but he hasn't proven to be irreplaceable and until he does he's nothing but potential.

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3 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

He's middle of the road because he hasn't proven to be better than half the league.  Just because a player would start does not make them good. 

How many tight ends do you think are better than Kmet right now? 

I like Kmet but he hasn't proven to be irreplaceable and until he does he's nothing but potential.

Not denying or arguing that he is not replaceable. I am simply refuting the fact that he is a borderline starter. A borderline start would be someone that would not start for a vast majority of the teams in the league (see Mustipher). He is not that. I would say that half of the teams right now have starters that are better than Kmet. The other half he is equal to or better than. I can't imagine there would be data out there that would say otherwise.

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1 minute ago, Bigbear72 said:

Not denying or arguing that he is not replaceable. I am simply refuting the fact that he is a borderline starter. A borderline start would be someone that would not start for a vast majority of the teams in the league (see Mustipher). He is not that. I would say that half of the teams right now have starters that are better than Kmet. The other half he is equal to or better than. I can't imagine there would be data out there that would say otherwise.

All this being said, the Bears' roster has a long way to go in order for the team to be viable. Justin Fields shows promise but still has a ways to go. This will not be the same team in 3 years and if it is our coaches are gods or the entire staff is fired including Poles and we stay on the merry-go-round. 

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9 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

Not denying or arguing that he is not replaceable. I am simply refuting the fact that he is a borderline starter. A borderline start would be someone that would not start for a vast majority of the teams in the league (see Mustipher). He is not that. I would say that half of the teams right now have starters that are better than Kmet. The other half he is equal to or better than. I can't imagine there would be data out there that would say otherwise.

Borderline starters are replaceable though. That's what makes them borderline starters.

He wouldn't start over 18 others for sure, and then another 2 that are less about play and strictly due to bad contracts like Njoku. He's in the Tyler Conklin, Hayden Hurst tier which makes him a borderline starter until proven otherwise.

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36 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Borderline starters are replaceable though. That's what makes them borderline starters.

He wouldn't start over 18 others for sure, and then another 2 that are less about play and strictly due to bad contracts like Njoku. He's in the Tyler Conklin, Hayden Hurst tier which makes him a borderline starter until proven otherwise.

Interesting. You see 18 teams that are better at TE. We will have to agree to disagree there.

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All of these guys are better than Kmet and it's not even debatable.

Travis Kelce
George Kittle
Darren Waller
Mark Andrews
Kyle Pitts
Dallas Goedert
T.J. Hockenson
Mike Gesicki
Dalton Schultz
Noah Fant
Hunter Henry
Tyler Higbee
Evan Engram
Pat Freiermuth
Robert Tonyan
Dawson Knox

Zach Ertz is getting old but he's still far more proven than Kmet.  Njoku's contract alone guarantees Kmet wouldn't start over him.  

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Our TE situation is as good or better than LAC, MIN, TEN, GB, HOU, DEN, LAR, NYG, NYJ, CAR, NO, TBB, IND, JAX, WAS, CIN, CLE. 

Some of the listed teams have "potential" just like the Bears but due to youth or injury that potential has not been realized yet. Kmet was at least top 13 in most receiving categories aside from TDs but that could have been due to lack of opportunity.

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Tonyan had one good year. That is debatable. What exactly has Higbee done that is vastly superior to Kmet? Engram plays 3 minutes a year. Njoku is overrated and always injured. Can't help a team if you are not on the field.

I'll concede the rest.

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