Week 4 GDT: San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

[JIllg]

1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

And the reason I hate using stats to determine if these receivers are not doing their job or slipping, you have to watch the coaches film to see how much separation they create and if they get open but just not targeted. It took me going to the Colts game and focusing on Aiyuk to see just how often he wins but Jimmy never looks his way...And then towards the 2nd half of the season, he started getting more targets and was essentially our WR1. 

Scoring  17 points yesterday after averaging over 7 YPP is sickening lol. That doesn't even make any sense. 

Part of that will always, always be Shanahan's conservatism when it comes to fourth downs. You're always going to be bad at turning positive drives into maximum points if you are always restricted to three downs. And I do think that it helps the defense out to some degree - even if you just weigh the starting field position into account, it cuts a small chunk away from your points per drive allowed. If anyone has an analysis of points per drive after successful punts versus failed fourth downs at the same spot on the field, I'd like to see it too, because anecdotally just having some time to plan and regroup makes it feel more likely to me that the defense will get something done that might be a touch more than just the field position playing into it. But you are still giving away offensive equity when you never go for it. And it is just true that this offensive equity is (still) often underrated. It's like in poker if you never continue with straight and flush draws when given the right pot odds to do so. You're giving away value for not enough risk. You won't succeed on fourth down every time! You may (gasp) fail! That's baked into the equation! But the times that you do succeed often have a lot of value and an extra 3 or 4 or even 7 points on one drive can pay off a lot of gambles just like a made straight or flush can pay off a number of times that you continue calling to see more cards. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 minute ago, JIllg said:

Part of that will always, always be Shanahan's conservatism when it comes to fourth downs. You're always going to be bad at turning positive drives into maximum points if you are always restricted to three downs. And I do think that it helps the defense out to some degree - even if you just weigh the starting field position into account, it cuts a small chunk away from your points per drive allowed. If anyone has an analysis of points per drive after successful punts versus failed fourth downs at the same spot on the field, I'd like to see it too, because anecdotally just having some time to plan and regroup makes it feel more likely to me that the defense will get something done that might be a touch more than just the field position playing into it. But you are still giving away offensive equity when you never go for it. And it is just true that this offensive equity is (still) often underrated. It's like in poker if you never continue with straight and flush draws when given the right pot odds to do so. You're giving away value for not enough risk. You won't succeed on fourth down every time! You may (gasp) fail! That's baked into the equation! But the times that you do succeed often have a lot of value and an extra 3 or 4 or even 7 points on one drive can pay off a lot of gambles just like a made straight or flush can pay off a number of times that you continue calling to see more cards. 

Definitely, if Shanny was more aggressive, it would lead to more points but could also put the defense in a tough position if we fail to convert...Not inside the 5 yard line but I'm referring to around the 40-45 yard line. Still though, the team just does not convert in the RZ to the level it should. Every single time we give the ball to anyone other than Deebo on a carry inside the 5, it results in a net negative play. Like that is where Deebo should be EATING. For some reason Shanny has gone away from that. And of course, Jimmy is not going to try to make certain throws which limits the offense in the RZ. We were great last season but that seems like an anomaly. Only other time we were in the top 10 with Shanny was in 2020 with Mullens and Beathard playing over half the season lol. 

What sucks is that we are not winning the TOP battle and that HAS to happen with this type of offense and defense. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Once again, using stats to evaluate these receivers and Shanny is so flawed lol. Literally called the perfect play against this defense and Aiyuk was running BUTT NAKED wide open across the middle of the field and Jimmy chose to go the other way. Now, not that going to Woerner was a terrible decision but Jimmy is as one read of a QB as you will see but never gets labeled that lol. I think when Jimmy said he felt more comfortable when the offenses was dummied down for him it makes perfect sense. He just can't handle more than one option on any given play. Like you have to make his reads as obvious as possible or else it will end badly for him. That's why you see all these predetermined passes and bad INTs in traffic. 

Aiyuk took the biggest hit for Lance's injury because Jimmy hardly ever looks his way and damn sure won't past 10 yards LOL. 

[Herodreamer79]

Deebo Samuel intercepted Jimmy's perfectly thrown pick-6 and took it to the house. 

49ers O-line minus Trent Williams, once again ghosted Aaron Donald. Donald has 1 registered sack in last 6 games vs the 49ers. 49ers pass protection is mediocre on their best day, but boy, do they make a punk out of Aaron Donald.

Jalen Ramsey is the most overrated DB in the NFL. 

it was fun to see Hufanga close out the Rams doing exactly what Tartt couldn't do. Making the upgrade clear with the ultimate exclamation point. 

It's pretty clear Rocky III has fully set in for the defending champs. 

 

and Jimmy Garoppolo still sucks. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Herodreamer79

[J-ALL-DAY]

8 minutes ago, Herodreamer79 said:

Deebo Samuel intercepted Jimmy's perfectly thrown pick-6 and took it to the house. 

49ers O-line minus Trent Williams, once again ghosted Aaron Donald. Donald has 1 registered sack in last 6 games vs the 49ers. 49ers pass protection is mediocre on their best day, but boy, do they make Donald look like a little punk. 

Jimmy got rid of the ball in 2.44 seconds. It's kind of hard to get sacks when a QB is getting rid of it that quickly lol. We have contained Donald better than most but he still makes plenty of plays against this offense. 

[Herodreamer79]

 

33 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

We have contained Donald better than most but he still makes plenty of plays against this offense. 

Pressures: 

Bosa: 14

Rams entire defense: 5

I guess. 

[Chrissooner49er]

48 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Jimmy got rid of the ball in 2.44 seconds. It's kind of hard to get sacks when a QB is getting rid of it that quickly lol. We have contained Donald better than most but he still makes plenty of plays against this offense. 

Previously, Jimmy was faster than that by at least 3 tenths of a second. Getting slow in his old age...

[straighthate]

5 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I mean if you throw it on time and to the outside, there is no CB in the history that is going to get to it, especially with the separation Aiyuk created. Like in the RZ, that is as open as you will get. The problem is that Jimmy did not even look that way so it is a moot point. It was NEVER going to go to Aiyuk. Predetermined passes is killing this offense's ability to put up points on the board. 

Yeah I’ll give it to you he was way more open than I thought he was from last night’s angle. Still feel better about him throwing over the middle than outside on that, but Aiyuk was open. And that’s just cuz I could see Jimmy throwing a 99 yard pick 6 if he tries to throw that to Aiyuk. 
 

As for predetermined throws, while you’re right, I do think in this small sample size it seems like Jimmy has looked off his first and sometimes even second read more than I’ve seen in the past. Even last night while trying to get the ball out quickly he moved through a couple progressions. Could be wishful thinking, but looks to me like he’s less predetermined than in previous years to me. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

5 minutes ago, straighthate said:

Yeah I’ll give it to you he was way more open than I thought he was from last night’s angle. Still feel better about him throwing over the middle than outside on that, but Aiyuk was open. And that’s just cuz I could see Jimmy throwing a 99 yard pick 6 if he tries to throw that to Aiyuk. 
 

As for predetermined throws, while you’re right, I do think in this small sample size it seems like Jimmy has looked off his first and sometimes even second read more than I’ve seen in the past. Even last night while trying to get the ball out quickly he moved through a couple progressions. Could be wishful thinking, but looks to me like he’s less predetermined than in previous years to me. 

I haven't seen that to be honest. I will pay closer attention when I re-watch the game but he's still primarily a first read passer. What he did a much better job of was being decisive in his throws and reads. Granted, he didn't get hit much so that probably helped but he didn't panic back there and delivered some nice balls. 

[N4L]

35 minutes ago, straighthate said:

And that’s just cuz I could see Jimmy throwing a 99 yard pick 6 if he tries to throw that to Aiyuk. 

Nah, no way. That is a layup, "gimmie" touchdown in the NFL. If he throws it right when aiyuk puts his foot in the ground, it is a very easy TD. 

I dont understand how you can know Aiyuks route there, see him 1v1, and look to someone else. This is one of my biggest gripes with Jimmy, the field awareness is severely lacking. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

4 hours ago, Herodreamer79 said:

Deebo Samuel intercepted Jimmy's perfectly thrown pick-6 and took it to the house. 

JImmy should have thrown it lower so it would have been picked off like Stafford's was. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by TecmoSuperJoe

[TecmoSuperJoe]

5 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

 I think when Jimmy said he felt more comfortable when the offenses was dummied down for him it makes perfect sense.

I don't think he said exactly that. And for what it's worth after the 2017 season plus full training camp I'm pretty sure he said he felt way more comfortable in Kyle's offense during an interview before the 2018 season started. Like night and day.

People are taking that narrative about Kyle's offense being too complex and extrapolating way too much IMO. Could be without realizing it Jimmy is more comfortable. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by TecmoSuperJoe

[49erscap]

On 10/3/2022 at 7:37 PM, Forge said:

Almost a lock that they pick it up, I would imagine. He hasn't made any pro bowls and I'm not sure if he'll even hit the playing time threshold. I think his 5th year option should fall somewhere between like 9.6 and 11.2M. @49erscap probably knows a little bit better, but at those prices, I doubt that they just let him go. 

According to OTC it'd be about $9.652M.

[Forge]

 🤣

[49ersfan]

Wana give a shout out to the home crowd. Last night had a playoff atmosphere. They were LOUD.