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Who will be King in the North?


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Harrison Smith: “If you can learn while you’re winning, that’s pretty awesome. It doesn’t happen all the time. I think that kind of shows you how good we can be. We’re just scratching the surface. We need to get better but we’re going to savor these wins. They’re hard to come by. Look around the league every week. Stuff happens that you don’t think should happen. It’s just how it works. The offense, whenever we needed it, they show up. We need to do more on the defensive side to help them out, where they don’t have to do that every game. But it is pretty special what they’re doing.”

https://heavy.com/sports/minnesota-vikings/harrison-smith-kirk-cousins-chicago-bears/

 

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The latest power rankings have the Vikings between fourth and twelfth. Reason being that their record hasn’t matched their play up to this point, raising questions as to whether or not they are for real or not.

When there are major differences in opinion, it’s sometimes better to defer to analytical models. The good people at Five Thirty Eight have their own prediction model that predicts records, playoff appearance, division title, first round by and to win the Super Bowl. In that model, the Vikings are nearly 2:1 favorites to win the NFC North.

The Vikings also have an 85% chance to make the playoffs, 9% chance at a first round bye and a 4% chance to win the Super Bowl.

https://vikingswire.usatoday.com/2022/10/13/vikings-nfc-north-odds-538/?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0aE8ktxCOEQOsTJm7eiSjog1sa70ShURhV6xiV2bwCzHBTXT1FdzpgFuY

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A win today is important for fending off Green Bay. The Jets are an improved team, but I think Green Bay wins today. If the Vikings beat the Dolphins, they head into the bye at 5-1. The rest of the schedule looks like:

Cardinals (Should Win)

@ Commanders (Should Win)

@ Bills (Likely Loss)

Cowboys (Toss up, but it's a home game)

Patriots (Should Win)

Jets (Should Win)

@ Lions (Should Win)

Colts (Should Win)

Giants (Toss up, but leans Vikings)

@ Packers (Toss up, but leans Packers)

@ Bears (Should Win)

If the Vikings win the games they should, that puts us at 12 wins. I suspect 1 or 2 of those will be unexpected losses, just based on parity/history. We'll have to win one or two of the toss up games. 

I see the Packers with six "should win" games left on their schedule (Jets, Commanders, Lions x 2, Titans, Bears), with two likely losses (Bills, Eagles) and 4 toss ups (Rams, Cowboys, Dolphins, Vikings). I suspect Tua will be back for the Packers/Dolphins game, so that moves it to a toss up.  If the Packers take care of business and win all of their "should win" games, that puts them at 9 wins. They'd have to beat us and overperform in their toss up games to take the North. I like our chances.

I think 13 wins will be enough to get the #2 seed in the NFC. Especially because I can't see the NFC East continuing to overperform. Dallas and New York will likely come back to the pack.  The NFC West looks like 11-6 will win the division. The NFC South looks similar, but the Bucs could definitely go on a roll. 

The Vikings' are in a really great spot entering the bye week. They could be 5-1 and can really dive into what has worked and what hasn't worked to make bye week adjustments. 

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20 minutes ago, wcblack34 said:

A win today is important for fending off Green Bay. The Jets are an improved team, but I think Green Bay wins today. If the Vikings beat the Dolphins, they head into the bye at 5-1. The rest of the schedule looks like:

Cardinals (Should Win)

@ Commanders (Should Win)

@ Bills (Likely Loss)

Cowboys (Toss up, but it's a home game)

Patriots (Should Win)

Jets (Should Win)

@ Lions (Should Win)

Colts (Should Win)

Giants (Toss up, but leans Vikings)

@ Packers (Toss up, but leans Packers)

@ Bears (Should Win)

If the Vikings win the games they should, that puts us at 12 wins. I suspect 1 or 2 of those will be unexpected losses, just based on parity/history. We'll have to win one or two of the toss up games. 

I see the Packers with six "should win" games left on their schedule (Jets, Commanders, Lions x 2, Titans, Bears), with two likely losses (Bills, Eagles) and 4 toss ups (Rams, Cowboys, Dolphins, Vikings). I suspect Tua will be back for the Packers/Dolphins game, so that moves it to a toss up.  If the Packers take care of business and win all of their "should win" games, that puts them at 9 wins. They'd have to beat us and overperform in their toss up games to take the North. I like our chances.

I think 13 wins will be enough to get the #2 seed in the NFC. Especially because I can't see the NFC East continuing to overperform. Dallas and New York will likely come back to the pack.  The NFC West looks like 11-6 will win the division. The NFC South looks similar, but the Bucs could definitely go on a roll. 

The Vikings' are in a really great spot entering the bye week. They could be 5-1 and can really dive into what has worked and what hasn't worked to make bye week adjustments. 

If you are talking second seed in the NFC, what would it take to become the First seed? How does Philadelphia’s schedule look in your opinion (‘should wins’ vs ‘toss up’s’)?

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7 minutes ago, marshpit23 said:

If you are talking second seed in the NFC, what would it take to become the First seed? How does Philadelphia’s schedule look in your opinion (‘should wins’ vs ‘toss up’s’)?

I think the Eagles will split with the Cowboys, and the Packers game could be considered a toss up (leaning Eagles). Other than that, it’s hard to see a loss on their remaining schedule. I think they win 14-15 games and have a win over the Vikings. It will be hard for the Vikings to overtake them unless Hurts gets…hurt. 

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Quinnen Williams stars as Jets D drops hammer on Packers. Robert Saleh's defense dominated all afternoon, discombobulating Aaron Rodgers. Williams played like an All-Pro Sunday, destroying Green Bay's interior and living in the backfield. Williams earned two sacks, three QB hits, two tackles for losses, and chipped in a blocked field goal. The Jets defensive line owned the line of scrimmage, sacking Rodgers four times and earning five tackles for loss. It was a statement game for Saleh's defense, which held Green Bay to just 278 yards on 69 plays (4.0 yards per play). Cornerback Sauce Gardner played darned near flawless, allowing just one catch for eight yards on seven targets, per Next Gen Stats. When the defensive line is wrecking the game, and Gardner and Co. are smothering receivers, the Jets D is scary.

Packers look broken.It was an abysmal performance from every aspect for Matt LaFleur's team. The offense is a sporadic mess that can't sustain drives. Rodgers has to make perfect throws to generate any explosive plays, and the wideouts couldn't earn separation Sunday. The defense got blasted by the Jets late, allowing 179 rushing yards. And the special teams was a disaster, getting a punt blocked for a touchdown and a field goal deflected. There wasn't anything redeemable about the Packers' performance Sunday. We've seen Rodgers play the R-E-L-A-X card in the past after bad losses, but this week's beatdown felt different.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-season-week-6-what-we-learned-from-sunday-s-games

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5 hours ago, marshpit23 said:

If you are talking second seed in the NFC, what would it take to become the First seed? How does Philadelphia’s schedule look in your opinion (‘should wins’ vs ‘toss up’s’)?

Beat Dallas to hold the tie breaker over them, and then have Dallas win the NFC East. 

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