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Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread


MacReady

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7 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

IMO, Paris Johnson is the clear pick if he is available.  I am not sure if he wouldn't be like second or third on the Packers board overall.  

Ya he is #3 on mine. 

 

Will anderson jr, tyree wilson, pj.

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Keep reading the knock on JSN is he "routinely" gets caught from behind.   Don't agree with that narrative but the upshot of that....he IS routinely out in front of whoever is trying desperately to keep up with him  

:Few interesting stats regarding JSN from his full 2021 season:

13 games 95 receptions 1606 yards 9 TD's

  • Kyler McCord and/or Jack Smith played in at least 5 of his 13 games and he didn't even play past the 3rd qtr in those contests
  • Of those 95 receptions - 67 resulted in a 1st down or TD
  • Only 12 total incompletions when targeting JSN
  • Only 6 of 95 completions were for 5 yds or less
  • Of the 35 10 yards or less, 9 resulted in a first down or TD
  • 60 receptions >10yards  44>15  29>20  21>25  15>30  8>40  4>50 (two more at 49) 1>75
  • Registered an "explosive play" (20 yds or greater) in 11 of his 13 contests
  • Ohio St played 5 teams ranked in the Top 20 over their final 6 games '21.   In those 5 games JSN had 51 receptions, 815 yards and 5 TD's

30% of his receptions resulted in explosive plays, nearly half of his touches resulting in 15+ yard gains.   Ya'll can spend your time watching highlights and lamenting how he got caught from behind cuz he's just too slow, I'm busy marvelling at watching yet another 20 yard gain or 1st down/TD while the defense scrambles to keep up

Edited by Kampfgeist
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15 minutes ago, Kampfgeist said:

Keep reading the knock on JSN is he "routinely" gets caught from behind.   Don't agree with that narrative but the upshot of that....he IS routinely out in front of whoever is trying desperately to keep up with him  

:Few interesting stats regarding JSN from his full 2021 season:

13 games 95 receptions 1606 yards 9 TD's

  • Kyler McCord and/or Jack Smith played in at least 5 of his 13 games and he didn't even play past the 3rd qtr in those contests
  • Of those 95 receptions - 67 resulted in a 1st down or TD
  • Only 12 total incompletions when targeting JSN
  • Only 6 of 95 completions were for 5 yds or less
  • Of the 35 10 yards or less, 9 resulted in a first down or TD
  • 60 receptions >10yards  44>15  29>20  21>25  15>30  8>40  4>50 (two more at 49) 1>75
  • Registered an "explosive play" (20 yds or greater) in 11 of his 13 contests
  • Ohio St played 5 teams ranked in the Top 20 over their final 6 games '21.   In those 5 games JSN had 51 receptions, 815 yards and 5 TD's

30% of his receptions resulted in explosive plays, nearly half of his touches resulting in 15+ yard gains.   Ya'll can spend your time watching highlights and lamenting how he got caught from behind cuz he's just too slow, I'm busy marvelling at watching yet another 20 yard gain or 1st down/TD while the defense scrambles to keep up

The timeless debate

1 guy gets open, catches a high % of targets for good yardage and may get caught from behind by defender

Another guy rarely gets caught from behind as he struggles to get open, or has issues catching the ball.

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1 hour ago, HokieHigh said:

Wright might be better year 1, but pjs cieling is so high. Needs to get in an nfl weight program and work on handling inside moves. 

IF you are high on Zach Tom (I am), I can see plopping Wright at RT and just letting him play there for 8 or 9 years being a good choice.  In fact, the closer to the draft we are getting, the more I think and want that to happen.  That said, Johnson is just the better talent, and Tom does have positional versatility, where I would just jump on the opportunity to take Johnson. 

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If Richardson or Levis slide to our pick and the Saints come calling to get their future QB with 29 and 40. Do we jump? 

Board looking pretty bad with Paris, Wright, Van Ness, Witherspoon, Tyree, Gonzalez to name a few already picked. 

Do we take someone like JSN/ Murphy / Nolan / Broderick / Breese / Kincaid or pick up extra draft capital. 15, 42, 45 or 29, 40, 42, 45.

 

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10 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

IF you are high on Zach Tom (I am), I can see plopping Wright at RT and just letting him play there for 8 or 9 years being a good choice.  In fact, the closer to the draft we are getting, the more I think and want that to happen.  That said, Johnson is just the better talent, and Tom does have positional versatility, where I would just jump on the opportunity to take Johnson. 

I've brought this up before and it was ignored, but does any one question why Wright is going to have over twenty 30-visits before the draft? There are 3 reasons why teams bring players in for 30-visits and none of them is to announce to the world they really like that player and would like to draft them. There is either a medical issue, a character issue or for players that are borderline draftable it is a recruitment visit. Teams are scrambling to get a handle on something with Wright before draft, he more than likely is not a clean prospect. 

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2 minutes ago, R T said:

I've brought this up before and it was ignored, but does any one question why Wright is going to have over twenty 30-visits before the draft? There are 3 reasons why teams bring players in for 30-visits and none of them is to announce to the world they really like that player and would like to draft them. There is either a medical issue, a character issue or for players that are borderline draftable it is a recruitment visit. Teams are scrambling to get a handle on something with Wright before draft, he more than likely is not a clean prospect. 

They probably want to get to know him better as far as why he played so heavy. I believe he played as high as 350 last year. 

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12 minutes ago, PackFan13 said:

If Richardson or Levis slide to our pick and the Saints come calling to get their future QB with 29 and 40. Do we jump? 

Board looking pretty bad with Paris, Wright, Van Ness, Witherspoon, Tyree, Gonzalez to name a few already picked. 

Do we take someone like JSN/ Murphy / Nolan / Broderick / Breese / Kincaid or pick up extra draft capital. 15, 42, 45 or 29, 40, 42, 45.

 

Odds are pretty good that if they went from 15 to 29 they would be going from drafting a player in their first tier to a player in their second tier, and that is probably a big deal for Gute's crew. There is also the question of why would the Saints do that after signing Carr. 

The dropping QB scenario probably would make more sense with TB at 19. 

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7 minutes ago, R T said:

The dropping QB scenario probably would make more sense with TB at 19. 

Washington at 16
Detroit at 18
Tampa Bay at 19
Minnesota at 23

Are probably the realistic options and two of them are division rivals.

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1 hour ago, Kampfgeist said:

Keep reading the knock on JSN is he "routinely" gets caught from behind.   Don't agree with that narrative but the upshot of that....he IS routinely out in front of whoever is trying desperately to keep up with him  

:Few interesting stats regarding JSN from his full 2021 season:

13 games 95 receptions 1606 yards 9 TD's

  • Kyler McCord and/or Jack Smith played in at least 5 of his 13 games and he didn't even play past the 3rd qtr in those contests
  • Of those 95 receptions - 67 resulted in a 1st down or TD
  • Only 12 total incompletions when targeting JSN
  • Only 6 of 95 completions were for 5 yds or less
  • Of the 35 10 yards or less, 9 resulted in a first down or TD
  • 60 receptions >10yards  44>15  29>20  21>25  15>30  8>40  4>50 (two more at 49) 1>75
  • Registered an "explosive play" (20 yds or greater) in 11 of his 13 contests
  • Ohio St played 5 teams ranked in the Top 20 over their final 6 games '21.   In those 5 games JSN had 51 receptions, 815 yards and 5 TD's

30% of his receptions resulted in explosive plays, nearly half of his touches resulting in 15+ yard gains.   Ya'll can spend your time watching highlights and lamenting how he got caught from behind cuz he's just too slow, I'm busy marvelling at watching yet another 20 yard gain or 1st down/TD while the defense scrambles to keep up

Don't think anyone is arguing that JSN was a great college WR.

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27 minutes ago, R T said:

I've brought this up before and it was ignored, but does any one question why Wright is going to have over twenty 30-visits before the draft? There are 3 reasons why teams bring players in for 30-visits and none of them is to announce to the world they really like that player and would like to draft them. There is either a medical issue, a character issue or for players that are borderline draftable it is a recruitment visit. Teams are scrambling to get a handle on something with Wright before draft, he more than likely is not a clean prospect. 

The data isn't convincing without a comparison. How many visits have the other top OTs had?

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21 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

They probably want to get to know him better as far as why he played so heavy. I believe he played as high as 350 last year. 

Over 20 teams are using one of their 30-visits to ask him why he played heavy. Interesting take on it.  

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4 minutes ago, R T said:

Over 20 teams are using one of their 30-visits to ask him why he played heavy. Interesting take on it.  

I mean, is there really another viable take out there right now? Have heard nothing about character IRT Wright and he made 42 starts in 4 years so the medical question is probably ruled out. The only thing he's been knocked for is his weight/endurance. Last two seasons he's either tied or lead the team in offensive snaps.

Edited by beekay414
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3 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

The data isn't convincing without a comparison. How many visits have the other top OTs had?

You are welcome to chase those numbers down if you like, but history tells us that the higher the visit numbers the more questions there are about the prospect. The flipside is examples of super clean prospects like Josh Downs who hasn't take a single visit and has none scheduled.  

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