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Aaron Rodgers contract - An analysis


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4 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

And yet they spent significant capital to try and replace Garoppolo with Trey Lance. Which tells me they think a game manager can only get them so far. The Rams did the same in their QB friendly offense and their bold move got them the ring they sought. It's not inconceivable to think that the 49ers could talk themselves into Rodgers being the piece that puts them over the top next year.

You might be right but would Gute send AR to another NFC rival?  Plus as I said earlier they will then have to take on Rodgers' contract and cap hit.  IMO they'd be better off resigning Garoppolo for 2023 instead.

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14 minutes ago, Pugger said:

You might be right but would Gute send AR to another NFC rival?  Plus as I said earlier they will then have to take on Rodgers' contract and cap hit.  IMO they'd be better off resigning Garoppolo for 2023 instead.

I feel it is a long shot for him to go to San Fran.  Just because of the investment in Lance.

But....I don't think it is a huge deal to trade him within the conference.

Rodgers is old and doesn't have much left in the tank.  If San Fran will take at least a big chunk of that contract and throw us a SRP, I think you jump at the chance.  Plus, it looks good to the franchise because it would be like sending Rodgers "home".  Kind of where he was hoping to play way back when.

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1 minute ago, vegas492 said:

I feel it is a long shot for him to go to San Fran.  Just because of the investment in Lance.

But....I don't think it is a huge deal to trade him within the conference.

Rodgers is old and doesn't have much left in the tank.  If San Fran will take at least a big chunk of that contract and throw us a SRP, I think you jump at the chance.  Plus, it looks good to the franchise because it would be like sending Rodgers "home".  Kind of where he was hoping to play way back when.

Unless AR retires he's going to be our starter in 2023.  I can't imagine many GMs beating down our door for a 40 year old QB with that contract after witnessing his performances this season.

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9 minutes ago, Pugger said:

Unless AR retires he's going to be our starter in 2023.  I can't imagine many GMs beating down our door for a 40 year old QB with that contract after witnessing his performances this season.

I see it differently.  There will be a lot of teams that would see Rodgers as the missing piece and a major upgrade over what they currently have on hand.  His cap hit for an acquiring team is under 16 mil for 2023.  The trick is the acquiring team would need him to commit to playing for two more years.  Aaron's drop in performance this year has more to do with having a banged up line and receiving corps than a drop in skill level.  

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49 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I feel it is a long shot for him to go to San Fran.  Just because of the investment in Lance.

But....I don't think it is a huge deal to trade him within the conference.

Rodgers is old and doesn't have much left in the tank.  If San Fran will take at least a big chunk of that contract and throw us a SRP, I think you jump at the chance.  Plus, it looks good to the franchise because it would be like sending Rodgers "home".  Kind of where he was hoping to play way back when.

...a single SRP?? To San Fran?? Lol

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12 minutes ago, LacyIsGood said:

With the Packer’s cap situation, structure of Rodgers contract, and Love’s progression and contract…I would be stunned if the organization doesn’t choose to move on.  Everything is in place, and they could still get some decent trade compensation for Rodgers.

You'd think so, but I'm not confident that is the path they will choose.

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1 hour ago, {Family Ghost} said:

I see it differently.  There will be a lot of teams that would see Rodgers as the missing piece and a major upgrade over what they currently have on hand.  His cap hit for an acquiring team is under 16 mil for 2023.  The trick is the acquiring team would need him to commit to playing for two more years.  Aaron's drop in performance this year has more to do with having a banged up line and receiving corps than a drop in skill level.  

100%. He's still has the physical and mental ability to play at a really high level. I still think he's here for 2023 due to some circumstances, but if you get a great offer it would be hard to turn down.

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It comes down to what Rodgers wants to do.  The Packers committed to him and nothing is happening without his approval.  

The second part is how bad do you want to keep Love?  Would he stay if promised being the starter in 2024?

Would Rodgers be willing to retire after next year?  Would he accept a trade to SF this year or next??

They aren't going to do Rodgers wrong, he's going to have a major say in how this goes and he should within reason.

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12 minutes ago, NFLGURU said:

It comes down to what Rodgers wants to do.  The Packers committed to him and nothing is happening without his approval.  

The second part is how bad do you want to keep Love?  Would he stay if promised being the starter in 2024?

Would Rodgers be willing to retire after next year?  Would he accept a trade to SF this year or next??

They aren't going to do Rodgers wrong, he's going to have a major say in how this goes and he should within reason.

That's probably true.  They would stick with Aaron for several years to come if he would just commit to playing for a few more years.  He hasn't been willing to do that, and he isn't fully committed to doing the full offseason workouts.  The Packers should insist that he be there for everything and if he's not willing to do that then that should signal that it's time to move on to Love while they still have him under contract at relatively cheap money.

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I think its SF or bust for Rodgers being traded.  He isnt going anywhere to start over from scratch.  SF is ready made.   You are also competing against Tom Brady possibly going to SF and they dont have to give up anything, or pay a huge chunk of his current contract.     They can work a short one year deal out and have Brady finish in SF. 

The race to SF could be on,  or they could just keep Jimmy G  in waiting for Lance to develop.  

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5 hours ago, Pugger said:

If SF takes on Rodgers' contract in 2023 they will not be able to keep the roster they have today intact.  They will run into the same issues we presently have.

Actually, their cap situation is one of the best in the league. 

Per OTC and using their salary cap assumption of $225m for the year, they just need to clear $59m of space before obtaining Rodgers. Then they activate his option and immediately have $45m in cap space to plug every remaining hole on the roster. 

As they already have about $14m in space for next year. Let's say they extend Nick Bosa and clear about $10m in space (that would occur with a roughly $30m dollar signing bonus. If you think he'll get more, they'd save $8m with a $40m bonus).

Now we're $35m away from clearing the space for Rodgers. By restructuring salary into bonus, they have an additional $58m they can clear between Trent Williams, Arik Armstead, Fred Warner, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Chavarious Ward.

They can do all this without cutting or trading another player. They won't push all of it into the future - especially Trent Williams' salary - but they don't need to. Once they obtain Rodgers and activate his option they'll have all the space they need to build a legitimate SB contender in a weak conference.

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5 hours ago, incognito_man said:

...a single SRP?? To San Fran?? Lol

Yup.  2nd round pick.  If we can get more, awesome.  Guess I don't know what the going rate is for a QB who just won back to back MVP's and then had a down/injured season to where he looks like he has 1 or 2 seasons left.

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7 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

I see it differently.  There will be a lot of teams that would see Rodgers as the missing piece and a major upgrade over what they currently have on hand.  His cap hit for an acquiring team is under 16 mil for 2023.  The trick is the acquiring team would need him to commit to playing for two more years.  Aaron's drop in performance this year has more to do with having a banged up line and receiving corps than a drop in skill level.  

Those teams who think they are a QB away better hope they fare better than Denver did with Wilson... 

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