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QB Talk Once Again.... sigh


JetsandI

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41 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Exactly.  And what caused that to not drag on?  The deadline for Carr's salary to guaranteed.  When is that deadline for Aaron Rodgers?  Not until Week 1 of the regular season.  That's why the Packers can afford to wait if the Jets aren't offering what they want.  It's at the very least mutually assured destruction for both franchises if they wait that late.

GB digs their heels in and we look elsewhere like to Stafford or Cousins. 2 realistic options potentially.

Was it worth it for you guys? Over what? Pride?

Bc at the end of the day we'd still have a massive upgrade at QB for a fraction of the price it would've cost to get AR. That's younger, when we were a fringe playoff team with awful QB play last season.

You in turn are either than forced to take Rodgers back and pay him more money or he retires and you have to pay him to not be on your roster. And to think he'd do GB any favors after all this is just not happening. That they never granted his wish to be a Jet and think he'd do them a favor? Not happening. 

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52 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

So it's now everyone else's fault now that Elijah Moore didn't play like a top WR except him?  Please.  That's not like a kid breaking glass and blaming it on everyone but himself for playing baseball in the house.  I'm not saying he doesn't have talent, but arguing that he somehow increased his value when he's coming off a worst season than his rookie year, only has 2 years of team control, AND threw his OC under the bus is an odd take to have.

And follow the targets.  Denzel Mims finished NINTH in targets last year among Jets' players.  The Jets' coaching staff pretty much dumped him on the bench, and it took injuries to get him actual PT.  The only reason he got starts when Corey Davis went down was because of his draft status.  He finished behind your back-up TE (CJ Uzomah), backup RB (Michael Carter), and was 5th amongst WRs in targets.  NOTHING about that screams confidence in his abilities.

One thing we can definitely agree on is that Denzel Mims is garbage. I will never understand the love for him on this forum. Going into his 2nd year I remember people on here were ready to put him in the hall of fame and he has had 19 catches and 0 TDs in the past 2 years.

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6 minutes ago, GangGreen420 said:

43, conditional pick, Corey Davis 

Depends on the conditional pick. Does it start as a 2nd rounder and can go to a 1st or is it like a 4th going to a 3rd. That said Corey Davis is not worth anything in a trade for the Packers. 

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39 minutes ago, jetfuel34 said:

So what deal do you think is fair for Rodgers

This years first and next years first with Moore?

This years first and Garrett Wilson?

The next 3 first round picks?

This years first with Sauce?

This is all crazy talk to me. 

NONE of those trades are even remotely close to what Packers' fans think they're getting for Rodgers.  Stop being obtuse.  I've been pretty vocal from the beginning that I THINK the Packers need a FRP+ worth of value to move Rodgers.  All of those offers are FRP++++ (really not enough plusses on some of those tbh).  No, I don't think the 13th pick will be included in anything other than a pick swap (13 for 15).

The problem is I see Matt Ryan as the absolute floor for a Rodgers' trade.  That means if **** hits the fan, the Packers get a 3rd round pick for him.  No, I don't believe the Jets are going to pivot to Plan B nor do I think the Packers are going to allow Rodgers to show up and sit on the bench and collect his $60M.  Those are just talking points.  But neither side is going to go to that extreme.

If I'm the Packers, I'm asking for a FRP knowing I'm not getting one.  If I'm the Jets, I'm offering a 3rd round pick knowing that I'm going to have to come up from it and knowing the market has been set by the Matt Ryan trade.  The compromise is the Jets' SRP.  That's for 2023 compensation.

But we have to believe that the Packers want compensation in 2024, and that's probably tied to the success of Rodgers and/or the Jets.  Again, the Jets value is probably something similar to what the Brett Favre trade was, while the Packers want something closer to a FRP to get their FRP+ worth of value.  A future SRP is probably valued as a mid-3rd this year, so a SRP plus a 3rd round pick this year falls short of their FRP+ worth of value.  That comes out to a very late FRP, but misses the "plus" part of the deal.  A guaranteed FRP with similar devalue combined with their SRP is a mid-FRP so that would fit the FRP+ value that I think the Packers want/need to get.  But the problem is I don't think the Jets want to risk giving up a FRP without some protection that Rodgers doesn't retire, so I think they could include a '25 pick based on what the Jets give up in 2024 AND Rodgers not playing for the Jets in 2024.  Something like a SRP in 2025 if Rodgers retires after the 2023 season AND the Jets give up a FRP in 2024, a 3rd if in 2025 if Rodgers retires after the 2023 season AND the Jets give up a SRP in 2024, etc.  Or something along those lines.  I think there's a decent chance the Packers might want an additional conditional pick in 2025 IF Rodgers plays in 2024, but let's ignore that part.

Personally, I asked that question survey last night that was leading towards the '24 compensation part.  It seems that the cost of a playoff appearance is a 3rd round pick, while I think most Packers' fans would push for a FRP so the happy medium is a SRP.

So to summarize something like this seems about right.

New York Jets Receive:
#15
#116
QB Aaron Rodgers
'25 Conditional Pick**

Green Bay Packers Receive:
#13
#45
'24 Conditional Pick*
 

* For the conditional pick the Packers receive, the Packers receive a FRP if the Jets make it to the Super Bowl.  They receive a SRP if the Jets make the playoffs.  And if the Jets miss the playoffs all together, the Packers get a 3rd round pick for Aaron Rodgers.  If for some reason Rodgers doesn't play a single snap for the Jets, they owe the Packers nothing.

** For the Jets' conditional pick, the pick is extinguished if Rodgers plays even 1 snap in 2024 whether it be with the Jets or another team.  IF Rodgers doesn't play in 2024, the Jets receive a SRP if they give the Packers a SRP in 2023.  The Jets receive a 3rd round pick in 2025 if the Jets give the Packers a 2nd round pick in 2024.  And the Jets receive a 4th round pick if the Packers receive the Jets' 3rd round pick in 2024.

EDIT: If the Packers want Corey Davis in the deal included to add a veteran WR to the room, he could be added but not in lieu of value from a draft pick.

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11 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I think the consensus is a Day 2 pick plus a conditional Day 3, so let's make it a little survey if you have time Jets' fans.

1.) What would you give up as far as a 2024 pick goes if it meant a GUARANTEED Super Bowl (i.e FRP, SRP, etc.)?
2.) What would you give up as far as a 2024 pick goes if it meant a GUARANTEED AFC Championship appearance (i.e FRP, SRP, etc.)?
3.) What would you give up as far as a 2024 pick goes if it meant a GUARANTEED playoff appearance (i.e FRP, SRP, etc.)?
4.) Would you be willing to increase that conditional pick IF you received a '25 IF Rodgers retires?

1st round pick if we're guaranteed an AFC title game appearance. Anyone who says otherwise is lying. Probably a 2nd for guaranteed playoffs

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19 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

Depends on the conditional pick. Does it start as a 2nd rounder and can go to a 1st or is it like a 4th going to a 3rd. That said Corey Davis is not worth anything in a trade for the Packers. 

I don’t care about what Corey Davis is worth, I’m just reading the tea leaves, he’s likely part of the deal.

and probably something like a 4th that can go as high as a 2 if Jets reach AFCCG

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Exactly.  And what caused that to not drag on?  The deadline for Carr's salary to guaranteed.  When is that deadline for Aaron Rodgers?  Not until Week 1 of the regular season.  That's why the Packers can afford to wait if the Jets aren't offering what they want.  It's at the very least mutually assured destruction for both franchises if they wait that late.

They cannot afford to wait, they will miss out on any 2023 draft compensation. There is also the possibility at that point Rodgers walks into your training facilities and starts making things ugly, you aren't benching Rodgers for Love. This idea that it is realistic for the Packers to wait until September is ridiculous to me, they won't allow it to go until then, the NFL will also put pressure on them to get this deal done so they can start scheduling prime time games as the Jets are a big market team.

 

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1 minute ago, GangGreen420 said:

Because there was probably a minor detail they had to iron out? Maybe one of the parties had something going on so they waited 48 hours to announce? Could be a number of things 

Minor details don't make a contract take 2 days to be completed.  The fact is that it would be considered tampering if they discussed a new deal with Chubb prior to the trade being completed.  Odds are the Dolphins knew what Chubb would want, which isn't a hard assumption to make given the EDGE market.  They made the trade with the belief that they would find a deal, and in the event that they didn't get a deal done before his contract expired they could always use the franchise tag to keep him there.

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