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BDL Discussion Thread 2023


Jlash

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3 hours ago, rackcs said:

Ok, I kind of rushed through these with so much other draft stuff going on, but here are my 2023 BDL Draft grades for each team, plus my thoughts on the best and worst values for each round. Not trying to hurt anyone's feelings and obviously my opinions are not fact, these are just my thoughts on the draft results. Hope it can spark some good discussion. Enjoy.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H0RKTQNO3d3iJaySqJdj69vPzlAqla40gqwrURaZq_E/edit?usp=sharing

I largely agree with your thoughts on our draft, we hit needs early and often with good-value players and then tried to go BPA from there.

I do disagree with 1. Boutte not being worth the risk in the 7th considering he was consistently mocked 1st round going into the season and 2. while Mazi and Siaki can serve similar roles, my depth chart at DT behind Quinnen and Derrick was DeMarvin Leal(might play OLB), Khyiris Tonga(7th rounder), Ta'Quon Graham(torn ACL), Kurt Hinish(UDFA), and Tommy Togiai(probable bust), so there's not a lot of depth stability.

That said, I can't complain too much if those two guys are the worst picks we made.

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3 hours ago, rackcs said:

Ok, I kind of rushed through these with so much other draft stuff going on, but here are my 2023 BDL Draft grades for each team, plus my thoughts on the best and worst values for each round. Not trying to hurt anyone's feelings and obviously my opinions are not fact, these are just my thoughts on the draft results. Hope it can spark some good discussion. Enjoy.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H0RKTQNO3d3iJaySqJdj69vPzlAqla40gqwrURaZq_E/edit?usp=sharing

Appreciate your hard work 

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3 minutes ago, Ragnarok said:

I largely agree with your thoughts on our draft, we hit needs early and often with good-value players and then tried to go BPA from there.

I do disagree with 1. Boutte not being worth the risk in the 7th considering he was consistently mocked 1st round going into the season and 2. while Mazi and Siaki can serve similar roles, my depth chart at DT behind Quinnen and Derrick was DeMarvin Leal(might play OLB), Khyiris Tonga(7th rounder), Ta'Quon Graham(torn ACL), Kurt Hinish(UDFA), and Tommy Togiai(probable bust), so there's not a lot of depth stability.

That said, I can't complain too much if those two guys are the worst picks we made.

Lots of players are mocked round 1 going into seasons that end up being nothing. Boutte has injury issues, character issues, and production issues. I really think he could be a faller come draft day. That being said, it's the 7th round so it doesn't really matter.

As for Smith and Ika, I agree you needed a lot of depth at the position, I just feel like a lot of your INT guys are very similar in style. Nothing wrong with that if that's what you want out of your guys and I do agree that Ika was good value there. Just a note I had when looking at your draft and your roster.

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1 minute ago, rackcs said:

Lots of players are mocked round 1 going into seasons that end up being nothing. Boutte has injury issues, character issues, and production issues. I really think he could be a faller come draft day. That being said, it's the 7th round so it doesn't really matter.

As for Smith and Ika, I agree you needed a lot of depth at the position, I just feel like a lot of your INT guys are very similar in style. Nothing wrong with that if that's what you want out of your guys and I do agree that Ika was good value there. Just a note I had when looking at your draft and your roster.

Fair on Boutte.  He'll either be a pro bowler or out of the league in two years.

I do think Mazi has more pass rush than people give him credit for, but Gervon and Siaki were my two favorite late round DTs with Gervon rated higher because he had a higher pass rush ceiling than Siaki.

But yeah, if this league has taught me one thing, its to have a ton of DL.

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We were discussing QB longevity in the Discord earlier and it made me curious about the QBs who would/should be starting in their mid to late 30s. That would be QBs taken from 2005-2011 (roughly), so I'm just gonna focus on the 1st rounders and include a few of the outliers from the rest of the draft(s) as I see them.

The 2011 class would be about 34 now, so let's start with them.

1st Cam Newton
8th Jake Locker
10th Blaine Gabbert
12th Christian Ponder

Infamously, all but Cam Newton here busted hard. Locker was never consistent even before injuries forced early retirement, while Gabbert has been a prime clipboard holder for years. Ponder was out of the league at 26 after just 38 games played as one of the worst QBs of the 2010s. Andy Dalton, taken as QB5 at the top of R2, is arguably the best QB from this class in terms of career longevity given Cam's physical collapse in his early 30s. Colin Kaepernick was good for like 18 months before injuries and schematic limitations, on top of Other Stuff, forced him out of the league.

2010:

1st Sam Bradford
25th Tim Tebow

Tebow was never a good prospect, great work Josh McDaniels. Bradford wasn't very good even before injuries racked up and played just 5 games after his age 29 season. Incredibly, Colt McCoy has started 11 games since 2018 and is still playing at 36 as a backup.

2009:

1st Matthew Stafford
5th Mark Sanchez
17th Josh Freeman

Stafford was obviously a hit, while Sanchez never put it together and started only 11 games over 5 years after his rookie contract was up at 26. Freeman was essentially bullied out of the league by HC Mark Schiano but was just 15-30 outside of a 10-win season in 2010 under Raheem Morris. Really just an awful QB class.

2008:

3rd Matt Ryan
18th Joe Flacco

Two Super Bowl starters in the first round in a year when the QB class supposedly sucked. Ryan hasn't really been good since 2018 (age-33) while Flacco hasn't played 10 games in a season since 2017 (age-32). Chad Henne has been a decent backup with only 4 starts since 2013 (age-28) and a 5-22 record since 2010.

2007:

1st JaMarcus Russell
22nd Brady Quinn

I mean, what's there to say. Both big busts for wildly different reasons. Kevin Kolb in R2 had potential but concussions and other injuries put an end to that. Toss-up between Troy Smith and Trent Edwards for best QB from this atrocious class, but UDFA Matt Moore made 2 starts in 2019 at age 35.

2006:

3rd Vince Young
10th Matt Leinart
11th Jay Cutler

For as bad as Jay Cutler was, he's still clearly the best QB from the 2006-2007 classes. He was still essentially done as a starter at 32, led the league in interceptions twice in the 8 seasons he played 15 or more games, and had three winning seasons with just one playoff appearance (two games) and win.

2005:

1st Alex Smith
24th Aaron Rodgers
25th Jason Campbell

Aaron Rodgers is arguably a top-5 all-time QB. Jason Campbell, not so much. He was 25 when he made his first career start and again was essentially done as a starter partway through his age-29 season. It feels unfair to discuss Alex Smith given his career-altering leg injury in 2018, but I think it's reasonable to assume he still had 2-3 seasons of starts left in him otherwise, and he did start games at age-36. Kyle Orton made 12 starts for Buffalo in 2014 at 32 and never played another game. Matt Cassel was a multi-year starter but never appeared in more than 9 games after 2010 (age-28 season) and started just 19 games over his final six seasons from age-31 on.

 

Take from all this what you will. I think the reason we don't have more QBs in their mid-late 30s right now is a combination of bad scouting, bad player development, and a lack of translatable skillsets from college to the pros during the height of ultra-simplistic spread offenses that didn't prepare QBs for the more cerebral requirements of the NFL. There has definitely been more young talent at the QB position in the past 6-7 years that have put the league in a better place, and I think we would have drastically different outcomes if we look at 2012 through 2020, even without the benefit of knowing the long-term results on the back end of that group.

Edited by Blue
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1 hour ago, rackcs said:

Most draft people have said the league is pretty low on him and he'll probably go day 3. Because of the Army weight restriction stuff, he's just physically so behind the curve that he's essentially going to have to be a stash guy for a year or two. Good potential and intangibles are obviously strong but the concerns are there right now about if he can hang in the NFL. His poor showing at the Senior Bowl was when I first started hearing this stuff.

The individual player grades are about grading each pick sort of in its own vacuum of value, need, etc. Then the overall grade is just about how much I think you executed the best possible draft you could have.

It wasn't so much for trading future picks as taking 3 RBs. Just felt like it wasn't necessary to keep jumping back in just to take another RB.

I've seen round 2 to round 6.  Its wild.  lol.  He's certainly more a projection, but I'll bet on the kid for a round 7 roll of the dice

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