Packers Defense - Devoid of individual talent.

[skibrett15]

This one has been gnawing at me the entire year, and even prior to the season.

We all know Barry is bad.  But Maybe he's just normal bad and not "worst DC ever" bad.  Maybe he didn't turn a top 5 unit into a below average one.  Maybe, just maybe he made an average unit below average.

 

Who is the best player on the Defense?  On most NFL teams or Packers seasons I think that question would be a near-unanimous choice.  On this team it's either JA, Gary, or Clark.  But I think none of them are as good or even on the level as any other team's best player.  They may be top 20, top 15, top 10 players at their position, but with 32 teams and 11 defenders per team... do we have a top 32 defensive player?  Do we have 2x top 64 players?  3 Top 96 players maybe?  Maybe we have 3 top 96, but probably not even.  Point being nobody on this team has a prayer of winning DPOY next year or had a chance coming into this year.  Not enough "star power" for my taste.

 

When Za'darius smith was leading the defense, it was so obvious to everyone he was the best player and he was the anchor of the team.  Offenses planned to stop him, and then those plans would fail.  They weren't the best defenses in the league around him, but that obviously talented player also showed where the team was also obviously lacking -- in the secondary and in basic run fits from the LBs against the 49ers.

 

Now, there are examples of "well-rounded" defenses having success and being top units.  I think the Ravens and Bengals are good examples of that.  But the ravens are a defensive culture team, and this is a MLF offense culture team.  It needs top talent and I don't think it's really there.  Not just good talent, but top talent.

 

I know the obvious counter to this is that JA is a top 5 corner and a top 20 defender and so on.  But he's really shown in his career that he can't be a Darius Slay/Revis physical lock down a single player and take them out of the game.  So he needs to impact the game in other ways, and I just don't see the playmaker to make up for that.  He makes the plays against justin fields and jared goff and concussed Tua.  And yes he plays mostly zone this year, but whether it's diggs or thielen early in his career or CeeDee Lamb this year I just don't see top corner in the league potential with him.  He's a good #1 corner, glad to have him, but I don't think he's some sort of field tilting force.  He's not lock down enough to completely remove an opponent's best option without a lot of help from the game plan, and he's not instinctive and ball-skill savant enough to play like woodson in a zone/flex/closer to the LOS role.  He's the best in the NFL at blowing up screen passes to WRs and backs, and a pretty good run defender.  But 12.3 yards/reception allowed and 6.8 yards/target allowed, 55% catch rate allowed -- these are 30th ranked stats or worse.  5 interceptions has all the makings of a career high, and I'd expect he'll return to his 1-2 per season after this.

[CrazyJoeDavola]

23 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

This one has been gnawing at me the entire year, and even prior to the season.

We all know Barry is bad.  But Maybe he's just normal bad and not "worst DC ever" bad.  Maybe he didn't turn a top 5 unit into a below average one.  Maybe, just maybe he made an average unit below average.

 

Who is the best player on the Defense?  On most NFL teams or Packers seasons I think that question would be a near-unanimous choice.  On this team it's either JA, Gary, or Clark.  But I think none of them are as good or even on the level as any other team's best player.  They may be top 20, top 15, top 10 players at their position, but with 32 teams and 11 defenders per team... do we have a top 32 defensive player?  Do we have 2x top 64 players?  3 Top 96 players maybe?  Maybe we have 3 top 96, but probably not even.  Point being nobody on this team has a prayer of winning DPOY next year or had a chance coming into this year.  Not enough "star power" for my taste.

 

When Za'darius smith was leading the defense, it was so obvious to everyone he was the best player and he was the anchor of the team.  Offenses planned to stop him, and then those plans would fail.  They weren't the best defenses in the league around him, but that obviously talented player also showed where the team was also obviously lacking -- in the secondary and in basic run fits from the LBs against the 49ers.

 

Now, there are examples of "well-rounded" defenses having success and being top units.  I think the Ravens and Bengals are good examples of that.  But the ravens are a defensive culture team, and this is a MLF offense culture team.  It needs top talent and I don't think it's really there.  Not just good talent, but top talent.

 

I know the obvious counter to this is that JA is a top 5 corner and a top 20 defender and so on.  But he's really shown in his career that he can't be a Darius Slay/Revis physical lock down a single player and take them out of the game.  So he needs to impact the game in other ways, and I just don't see the playmaker to make up for that.  He makes the plays against justin fields and jared goff and concussed Tua.  And yes he plays mostly zone this year, but whether it's diggs or thielen early in his career or CeeDee Lamb this year I just don't see top corner in the league potential with him.  He's a good #1 corner, glad to have him, but I don't think he's some sort of field tilting force.  He's not lock down enough to completely remove an opponent's best option without a lot of help from the game plan, and he's not instinctive and ball-skill savant enough to play like woodson in a zone/flex/closer to the LOS role.  He's the best in the NFL at blowing up screen passes to WRs and backs, and a pretty good run defender.  But 12.3 yards/reception allowed and 6.8 yards/target allowed, 55% catch rate allowed -- these are 30th ranked stats or worse.  5 interceptions has all the makings of a career high, and I'd expect he'll return to his 1-2 per season after this.

I am a dunce adn have not dove in deep on any of this but just the 10,000 foot view I feel like you are severely underselling Gary, Clark, and JA. If you are basing it off DPOY, I would say Gary has the full capability of being that guy, as does JA. JA will be limited by the scheme and lack of man coverage though. 

[pgwingman]

So what is the suggestion? That we need a top 32 player on defense? We would all certainly agree, but those players are really, really hard to come by. They don't make it to free agency. Teams don't trade them away. You only draft them if you're drafting in the top 10. 

Gute has done a pretty good job assembling a talented, balance defense with as few holes as possible. I'm not sure how much more we can ask for.

[{Family Ghost}]

Sure seems to me that we have the talent to be a yearly top 10 defense, but lack the coach, or staff to bring this all together on a consistent basis. 

[Mr. Fussnputz]

I think Z's on-field leadership loss was felt this year. No one really stepped up to fill that void. The Pack really needs to find that guy this offseason. Don't care if he's a S, LB, or DL. Need someone to rally around out there at crunch time.

[pgwingman]

11 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

I think Z's on-field leadership loss was felt this year. No one really stepped up to fill that void. The Pack really needs to find that guy this offseason. Don't care if he's a S, LB, or DL. Need someone to rally around out there at crunch time.

Yeah but he didnt play in 2021 either and that defense played pretty well.

Well, they weren't great and only mildly better in most defensive categories despite being cheaper.

Nevermind this unit just isn't that good 

[Mazrimiv]

The use of the players is a far bigger issue than the players themselves.  Nothing is going to change until the players are consistently put in position to play to their strengths and mitigate their weaknesses.  Barry does the exact opposite a shockingly high amount of the time.   

[Mazrimiv]

1 hour ago, skibrett15 said:

Who is the best player on the Defense?  On most NFL teams or Packers seasons I think that question would be a near-unanimous choice.  On this team it's either JA, Gary, or Clark.  But I think none of them are as good or even on the level as any other team's best player.  They may be top 20, top 15, top 10 players at their position, but with 32 teams and 11 defenders per team... do we have a top 32 defensive player?  Do we have 2x top 64 players?  3 Top 96 players maybe?  Maybe we have 3 top 96, but probably not even. 

I disagree with pretty much all of this.

[skibrett15]

44 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

So what is the suggestion? That we need a top 32 player on defense? We would all certainly agree, but those players are really, really hard to come by. They don't make it to free agency. Teams don't trade them away. You only draft them if you're drafting in the top 10. 

Gute has done a pretty good job assembling a talented, balance defense with as few holes as possible. I'm not sure how much more we can ask for.

2 main things.

1) The problems of this defense are much greater than a DC change (which isn't coming anyway)

2) Packers lack a true star defender and we moderately overrate Gary, Clark, and JA.  None are as good as clay matthews.  Obviously none are as good as woodson.  All are more like Tramon Williams if I have to stick to Packer comps, since those are the ones that tend to stick on this board.

 

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, skibrett15 said:

know the obvious counter to this is that JA is a top 5 corner and a top 20 defender and so on.  But he's really shown in his career that he can't be a Darius Slay/Revis physical lock down a single player and take them out of the game

This sentence kinda undermines your entire point considering what JA just did to Jefferson a couple weeks ago.

[skibrett15]

Just now, incognito_man said:

This sentence kinda undermines your entire point considering what JA just did to Jefferson a couple weeks ago.

My sense of that game was that was a gameplan shutdown.  JA cannot cover Jefferson in a more aggressive scheme or coverages, and it's why he wasn't asked to in the first meeting

 

I haven't re-watched that game or anything, so willing to be wrong here, but I saw a lot of bodies around JJ, and JA was asked mostly to cover him vertically along the sideline.  He did his job really well, and had a lot of nice plays that game.  To be quite honest I don't think there's more than a handful of corners who are 100% bona fide super stars who can cover the best in the NFL consistently.

 

What Slay/Gilmore/Surtain do as a Revis imitation shutdown CB is pretty unique in the NFL right now.  Sauce might be added to that list too, but we'll see if he starts drawing more flags or gets the Sherman treatment. 

Overall, teams are putting less and less pressure on individual CBs to win 1 on 1 because of the fear of the single play beating you.  Ramsey is a less physical player than JA, but his knack and instincts for tricking the QB make him the closest thing to a superstar CB when playing in zone/space/off coverages.  Not his finest year but that whole team was reeling far worse than GB.  Dude is a playmaker and the ball skills are unmatched.

 

I think JA is probably the least overrated member of the D, Gary the most overrated and clark somewhere in between.

[incognito_man]

33 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

think JA is probably the least overrated member of the D, Gary the most overrated and clark somewhere in between

Where are they rated? Behind who? And why?

[Packerraymond]

Eh, I think this is all just a poor evaluation of our individual talent. When you have multiple players that flash abilities few players in the league can flash, and do it consistently, but also struggle with inconsistency, that's coaching to me.

[R T]

3 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Eh, I think this is all just a poor evaluation of our individual talent. When you have multiple players that flash abilities few players in the league can flash, and do it consistently, but also struggle with inconsistency, that's coaching to me.

A little crazy that he seems sold on his evaluations, the Packers defense is not short on difference making talent.   

[CrazyJoeDavola]

I really see this defense much differently than the OP. I see lots of individual talent but no cohesion. Which is a coaching issue to me. There is talent at each level, but it seems like there is not the mid level talent. Its a feast or famine. You go form Clark to Lowry. Gary to Hollins. Campbell to Mcduffie. Its a depth issue combined with coaching. The secondary when healthy looks to be the best group especially with Savage moving into the nickel corner role. Add another safety and that's a tough group if they are coached to their strengths.