What's Aaron Rodgers trade value?

[CWood21]

8 hours ago, NudeTayne said:

It going from a short-term rental to actually trading for a player who is going to be a part of the team for the proverbial long haul seems between 2-3 years. Getting 1-2 years of an end-of-career quarterback being paid top dollar doesn't seem worth much in compensation, but getting a player, especially at quarterback for at least three seasons is more of a real get for the receiving team.

It's only a year, but that's a lot in this case IMO. I don't think Green Bay will get as much as they could if Aaron didn't keep acting like he was gonna retire. If he was still acting like he plans to play until 45, it makes it look like not only is he more than a rental but the new team might even be able to trade him later on for some compensation; however, Aaron has played it as the former. I doubt the Packers get anything resembling a haul unless the Jets are just that desperate.

It's an arbitrary standard.  Plus, it's more of an exponential growth scenario.  3 years is worth more than 2 years, just like 2 years is worth more than 1 year.  It's not like if we get 2 years out of him, he's worth peanuts but suddenly if you get 3 years you get gold.  There's a more gradual rate of value.

[NYRaider]

Just now, CWood21 said:

Joe Douglas has one home-run trade as a GM (Jamaal Adams trade) and a bunch of singles.  Stop acting like he's this god amongst men GMs.

The Jets 20-46 record since he took over led me to believe he was something of a mastermind. 

[CWood21]

8 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Isn't there a scenario where Rodgers potentially just retires though if they can't get a deal done?

A deal ultimately gets done at some point, because the Packers can't really afford to sit on Rodgers' option bonus even if they spread it out over multiple years.  But Rodgers' ego isn't the type to sit around and collect a paycheck but not play.  He came back to play.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, NJC33 said:

Do people honestly believe the Packers, one of the most reputable organizations, are going to let this saga overshadow and distract from their present team.. all the way up till September 1st? Not to mention the petty narrative that will ensure by holding one of the greatest players in franchise history hostage over trade value. That's the leverage you're banking on?

It doesn't matter what anyone thinks Rodgers is worth (I'm sure what they're asking for is relatively fair) - value is determined by what others are willing to pay and the reality is there are no other suitors.

The Packers decided to move on, if the Jets offer is the best (and only) on the table... then own it. Forcing the Jets to outbid themselves, by holding Rodgers hostage is incredibly petty, especially for an organization as great as the Packers. 

Both sides have motivation to get this done.  Unfortunately for the Jets, there's no backup options elsewhere.  There's no Jimmy G.  There's no Derek Carr.  It's Aaron Rodgers or Zach Wilson, and the Jets can't go back down that path again.  The Jets have to get Rodgers.

[Rockice_8]

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

Why eat $40M in dead cap while trading away a top 5 QB if you're not getting fair value?

What's fair value for a 1-year rental?  So what if NY balks they are going to bench Rodgers and cut him for nothing next year?  Sets a great precedent for treatment of your HOF players.  Now you get no return and pissed off Rodgers in the process.  Bad for business.

Not saying NY can just offer a 7th here.  It'll be multiple mid rounders probably a 3 and conditional 2024 pick.  Maybe they get spooked and offer up their 2 but doubt it'll be more than that.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The real true deadline imo is the draft.   The value of future picks is far lower waiting and the unknown position.   Because it’s basically going to be A-Rod O with Hackett as clipboard OC coming in later isn’t ideal but it’s not a deal breaker.   

I think it's softer than you think it is.  IF the Jets are refusing to include the 13th pick, then that pick wouldn't be available before the draft anyways.  So let's say the Jets are offering their '24 FRP but the Packers want #13, after the draft the Jets' offer won't change.  But the Packers won't have the ability to ask for #13.

[SDotNova]

If this trade doesn't go down, the Packers will exercise Love’s option on May 1st and then either trade him or pick up the options without getting a pick in 2023. If they dont trade him that’s a tough cap situation.

We’re literally talking about who got screwed the most in that situation. lol

Edited March 16, 2023 by SDotNova

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, goldfishwars said:

A fair question, no?

I still stand by my opinion that the Jets and Packers agreed to a relative framework of a trade.  Wingo (who was the first to report that Rodgers would be a Jet) said it was pretty much done already.

[sgtcheezwiz]

24 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Every fanbase has em 😂

Seriously. Have fun watching Zach Wilson throw to Alan Lazard kiddo.

[CWood21]

52 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

Hold up is probably GB pushing for the 2nd while JD is saying take our 3rd and a conditional 2024 late rounder.  As desperate as people make the Jets out to be Rodgers wants to be here and GB can't really take him back so GB really has no leverage here.

No matter how good he is a guy that said he was 90% close to retirement a few weeks ago isn't you a 1st.

lol that's a really, really bad trade package.  Remember, Matt Ryan's corpse went for a 3rd round pick.  A SINGLE 3rd round pick, and you think a 3rd round pick and a conditional late 2024 pick is going to get it done?

[Packerraymond]

2 minutes ago, SDotNova said:

If this trade doesn't go down, the Packers will exercise Love’s option on May 1st and then either trade him or pick up the options without getting a pick in 2023. If they dont trade him that’s a tough cap situation.

We’re literally talking about who got screwed the most in that situation. lol

What are you talking about? Love is the Packers starting QB. If they exercise the option it goes on the cap in 2024.

[CWood21]

37 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

I heard something about tomorrow being the day because of some CBA language that was holding up restructuring his deal.  Sounds like GB needs to eat some money so tomorrow it can officially be done.  Not sure how true that is.

I'd LOVE for someone to link me to this.  I've seen this regurgitated a couple of times, but I can't find anything to support that.

[umphrey]

So when is there actually any soft deadline for all of this? It seems like the only incentive to get a deal done at this moment is impatient fans and impatient Rodgers. 

[Rockice_8]

7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Both sides have motivation to get this done.  Unfortunately for the Jets, there's no backup options elsewhere.  There's no Jimmy G.  There's no Derek Carr.  It's Aaron Rodgers or Zach Wilson, and the Jets can't go back down that path again.  The Jets have to get Rodgers.

The Jets can grab Mariota, draft Hooker and let them compete with Wilson.  They want Rodgers and that's about the only thing GB is clinging to in hopes of making them sweat a little.  The fact is as bad as the Jets want Rodgers GB wants him gone too.  There are no other bidders and Rodgers wants NY.  How many times in history does a situation like this play out in favor on the team trading the stat away. 

Not to mention said star is nothing but a 1-year rental given his 90% retired comments recently.  The Jets are going to be forced by GB to overbid themselves for a rental?  The reason this isn't done is because the Jets are low balling.  IF 13 was in the discussion this is over already.

[Dr LBC]

15 hours ago, incognito_man said:

I know you quoted me but thought your question was an open one to anybody. I don't have an opinion on the comparability of Stafford's value to this one (the situations are not similar at all so it's hard for me to compare them). I only mentioned it because it's been reported (by one side or other) that they compared it to that return.

 

 

 

 

Nah.  I totally get it.  It just kind of lumped in to something I've been trying to illustrate for folks for a while on this.  There really isn't a recent comp for this, because the last time we saw a veteran (extreme veteran?) player, much less a QB, with 2+ years remaining on his contract traded or leverage his way into a trade, that was the Stafford deal where the Rams also needed (and compensated accordingly) the Lions to take on Goff's contract as part of the deal.  Thus the actual valuation put on the player (Stafford) in that deal wasn't just the opposite side of the ledger (2 FRP's, a mid-round pick, and a QB), at least some of that compensation to the Lions was for taking on Goff's albatross contract (the old Brock Osweiler move) as part of the transaction.

All that said, I go back to what one particular Jets fan said in this thread earlier: Is there any player they can select at their natural FRP this year that will move the needle for them more than Rodgers?  No.  So that, in and of itself, is the baseline, so far as I'm concerned.