Cousins value and the next wave of big contracts

[jontat83]

They should have done a deal earlier, it was always going to come back to bite them that they would have to pay more down the line. If Cousins get something like 30 million plus then what is someone like Rodgers going to get in his next deal which isn't that far off?

[TXsteeler]

16 hours ago, jrry32 said:

That's just not true. The transition tag gives them more leverage because other teams do the work for them. With the franchise tag, Cousins is guaranteed $34+ million. He's also guaranteed that Washington can't franchise him or transition tag him again. Cousins gets full control of any contract negotiations, and if he doesn't want to negotiate, he doesn't have to negotiate. The franchise tag would be the worst move Washington could make.

What I mean by the franchise tag giving them leverage, is that Kirk has to bet that he can go another year without getting seriously injured. Having other teams "do all the work" doesn't give them any leverage unless the market determines that he isn't worth as much as he expects, which won't happen.

[Dashing202]

23 hours ago, TXsteeler said:

How has that worked for you guys since 1993? Kirk can absolutely win a superbowl, he is a top 10 QB who has been on a pretty bad/injured team.

I do not understand redskins fans who hate Kirk. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/career-passing.htm look at the stats. He will likely pass Rypien for pass yards within 2 more games, and could pass him for TDs if he has a good last quarter of the year. If you guys manage to somehow draft a QB better than Kirk, you will have him for four years before he resigns a deal for whatever the equivalent of $30M a year is by then, because that's just how QB salary inflation works.

At this point, $100 million would be a bargain for Cousins.The salary cap has gone up over 10 million dollars per year for four years in a row, and it's going to continue to go up because the TV deals are signed through 2021 or 2022 except for TNF games, so the decreased ratings won't effect them. 

Looking at contracts as anything other than % of salary cap is worthless. You can find a list of salary caps by year here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary_cap#National_Football_League, and a list of largest contracts ever here https://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/biggest-contracts-nfl-history.html/?a=viewall.

If The redskins had accepted the $19M a year in 2015 as Slateman mentioned, it would have only been 13.3% of the cap that year.

When Kaepernick signed for $21M a year in 2014 it was 15.8% of the salary cap that year.

When Flacco signed for $20.1M a year in 2013 it was 16.3% of the salary cap that year.

When Carson Palmer signed for $13.3M a year in 2005 it was 15.5% of the salary cap that year.

When Vick signed for $13M a year in 2004 it was 16.1% of the salary cap that year.

When Rodgers signed for $22M a year in 2013 it was 17.9% of the salary cap that year.

When Ryan signed for $20.75M a year in 2013 it was 16.9% of the salary cap that year.

When Luck signed for $23.3M a year in 2016 it was 15.0% of the salary cap that year.

When Carr signed for $25M a year in 2017 it was 15.0% of the salary cap that year.

Other QB's have signed big contracts in the past 10 years or so that was around high 14s to mid 15s percentage wise but in general a big QB deal is around 15-16% of the salary cap depending on other factors, including competition or lack thereof, hometown discounts, guaranteed money, previously signed deals, etc. Before Carr signed his deal, people were saying Cousins was valued around $24M a year which would have put him under 15%. Now it's gone up because another year has gone by, so inflation + Kirk's play + other QB deals have warranted it.

Do the math yourself by just guesstimating the salary cap next year and comparing it against a value Kirk would be paid.

For next year I think that $26M a year would be round about right, and if the salary cap increases another $10M to $177M, then it would only be 14.7% of the salary cap.

Taking $177M as the next years cap, forKirk to match the 15% of Luck and Carr he would need to be paid $26.55M, to match the 16% of Vick he would need to be paid $28.32M, to match the 17% of Ryan, he would need to be paid $30.09M, and to match the insane (but not for Rodgers) 18% he would need to be paid $31.86M per year.

So yeah, 100 million would be overpaying Kirk, if it was a three year contract.

Dude that's with any team lol look at the Texans , looks at the Rams , look at the Titans ,

 

look at the Vikings lol

look at the browns the 49ers or even the Jaguars 

it isn't easy finding a qb but Kirk cousins isn't worth the money lol like I've seen all of his games and this is his prime man .

 

the redskins rookie qbs always suck because we never build anything around the qb . Our D would be good but than ours OL and weapons are trash . This era our D is up and down while our OL is ok with a awful wr core .

the redskins have to finally build solid pieces to win a championship , we always set our rookie qb in bad situations but this time even as someone who's up and down with gruden I'm confident we will be alright having a rookie qb .

kirk isnt bad but he isn't great either and I don't care ignorant he's gone

your team can have him 

[Dashing202]

All and all I think skins tag him this time and trade him for sure . If not they'll let him walk but I don't want him back .

a lot of you fans are overreacting him when me a redskins fan has seen hims since his first pre season game .

[jrry32]

4 hours ago, TXsteeler said:

What I mean by the franchise tag giving them leverage, is that Kirk has to bet that he can go another year without getting seriously injured. Having other teams "do all the work" doesn't give them any leverage unless the market determines that he isn't worth as much as he expects, which won't happen.

It does give them leverage because they get to match any offer. The other teams do the work for them. If they franchise Kirk, he gets $34 million guaranteed and guaranteed that they can't ever tag him again (neither franchise nor transition). He can afford to play the season under the tag and get paid in free agency next year. He can also afford to make the threat that he'll sit out the first 10 games.

[Thaiphoon]

On 12/2/2017 at 12:35 PM, TXsteeler said:

How has that worked for you guys since 1993? Kirk can absolutely win a superbowl, he is a top 10 QB who has been on a pretty bad/injured team.

I do not understand redskins fans who hate Kirk. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/career-passing.htm look at the stats. He will likely pass Rypien for pass yards within 2 more games, and could pass him for TDs if he has a good last quarter of the year. If you guys manage to somehow draft a QB better than Kirk, you will have him for four years before he resigns a deal for whatever the equivalent of $30M a year is by then, because that's just how QB salary inflation works.

At this point, $100 million would be a bargain for Cousins.The salary cap has gone up over 10 million dollars per year for four years in a row, and it's going to continue to go up because the TV deals are signed through 2021 or 2022 except for TNF games, so the decreased ratings won't effect them. 

Looking at contracts as anything other than % of salary cap is worthless. You can find a list of salary caps by year here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary_cap#National_Football_League, and a list of largest contracts ever here https://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/biggest-contracts-nfl-history.html/?a=viewall.

If The redskins had accepted the $19M a year in 2015 as Slateman mentioned, it would have only been 13.3% of the cap that year.

When Kaepernick signed for $21M a year in 2014 it was 15.8% of the salary cap that year.

When Flacco signed for $20.1M a year in 2013 it was 16.3% of the salary cap that year.

When Carson Palmer signed for $13.3M a year in 2005 it was 15.5% of the salary cap that year.

When Vick signed for $13M a year in 2004 it was 16.1% of the salary cap that year.

When Rodgers signed for $22M a year in 2013 it was 17.9% of the salary cap that year.

When Ryan signed for $20.75M a year in 2013 it was 16.9% of the salary cap that year.

When Luck signed for $23.3M a year in 2016 it was 15.0% of the salary cap that year.

When Carr signed for $25M a year in 2017 it was 15.0% of the salary cap that year.

Other QB's have signed big contracts in the past 10 years or so that was around high 14s to mid 15s percentage wise but in general a big QB deal is around 15-16% of the salary cap depending on other factors, including competition or lack thereof, hometown discounts, guaranteed money, previously signed deals, etc. Before Carr signed his deal, people were saying Cousins was valued around $24M a year which would have put him under 15%. Now it's gone up because another year has gone by, so inflation + Kirk's play + other QB deals have warranted it.

Do the math yourself by just guesstimating the salary cap next year and comparing it against a value Kirk would be paid.

For next year I think that $26M a year would be round about right, and if the salary cap increases another $10M to $177M, then it would only be 14.7% of the salary cap.

Taking $177M as the next years cap, forKirk to match the 15% of Luck and Carr he would need to be paid $26.55M, to match the 16% of Vick he would need to be paid $28.32M, to match the 17% of Ryan, he would need to be paid $30.09M, and to match the insane (but not for Rodgers) 18% he would need to be paid $31.86M per year.

So yeah, 100 million would be overpaying Kirk, if it was a three year contract.

Thank you!! This is what we've tried to explain to Kirk hater Redskin fans. Thankfully someone else sees it.

[Thaiphoon]

2 hours ago, Dashing202 said:

All and all I think skins tag him this time and trade him for sure . If not they'll let him walk but I don't want him back .

a lot of you fans are overreacting him when me a redskins fan has seen hims since his first pre season game .

And me, as a Redskins fan, thinks you are completely wrong.

@TXsteeler's take is correct

[Thaiphoon]

On 11/29/2017 at 6:42 PM, Slateman said:

 

The TL;DR answer to both of these is Dan Snyder and Bruce Allen

 

The long answer: back in 2011-2012 off-season, Dan Snyder was tired of Mike Shanahan's crap regarding Rex Grossman and John Beck. It's still unclear who was responsible for the Donovan McNabb fiasco, but Shanny definitely held the bag for the next iteration of terrible QBs. So Snyder/Allen basically laid it out: Either Shanny takes Griffin with the number 2 pick, or he was fired. Shanahan didn't really want to, but he also didn't want to lose his job, so the deal was made, and Griffin was drafted.

Then came the fourth round and a guy named Kirk Cousins was selected by the Redskins. Shanahan played it off like he needed a backup, particularly for a mobile QB. And for at time, it was believable. Griffin excelled in the offense the Shanahans built for him. The Redskins went to the playoffs. The Nationals won 98 games. The Caps started to dominant. The DC sports curse was broken.

Before going on, you need to understand the relationship that Griffin and Snyder had. It was special. It was unique. Griffin was not treated like other players. Griffin was the blessed child. And SSnyder loved every minute of it. He'd been waiting for 15+ years for this moment. He had a young, hip, black franchise QB. And, yes, skin color was important here. Snyder had been besieged by his money grubbing tactics in the press, and the Redskins name controversy was not going away. Griffin being the franchise QB gave Snyder everything he needed to counter the social pressure around him. And he treated that guy like his own kid.

And  then Griffin was injured in the Seattle game. The curse remained alive. The fan base was stunned. Griffin was shook. But he rehabbed his *** off to get back. And then the nonsense started. He wanted the playbook changed. He didn't want to run as much option. He wanted to become a real pocket passer. The problem was, he'd never done it before. It became very obvious he couldn't do it. He didn't make basic reads. He couldn't make basic passes. Griffin could not operate as an NFL QB. But Snyder didn't care because that was HIS guy. Shanahan finally benched him at the end of the 2013 and Snyder fired Shanahan.

Jay Gruden was hired for the 2014 season. He was brought in to coach up Griffin. The guy who turned Andy Dalton into a pro-bowler. This was going to be the guy. Except ... Griffin still sucked. He got hurt in Week 2 and when he came back, he showed no progression until the last couple of games. Dan Snyder and Bruce Allen elected to pick up his option (15 million).

Now, during this saga, Cousins got chances and was up and down. Sometimes he flashed. Sometimes he struggled. There were questions about his attitude and demeanor. He allegedly asked for a trade.

During the 2015 preseason, Griffin got hurt. Cousins lept at the opportunity. He shined. He flat out won the job. Particularly down the stretch, Cousins was elite, taking the Redskins to the playoffs.

Prior to the season, the Redskins did something that truly hadn't done since Snyder was the owner: Get a general manager. At least from the outside, Scot McCloughan was totally in control of football operations. Bruce Allen was there to kiss babies, set up the homecoming game, and get Snyder a new stadium deal. We know now this wasn't the case, as McCloughan was nothing more than a glorified scout. During the 2015 season, McClough recognized that Cousins had the chops to be a very good NFL QB and started negotiating with his agent. Prior to the 2015 season ending, Cousins and his agent agreed to a deal that was essentially a 3 year, 19 million per year deal. McCloughan was stoked and took it to ownership, as, for obvious reasons, ownership has to sign off on that kind of deal

Dan Snyder and Bruce Allen said no.

You see, Cousins is the reminder of everything they screwed up and they didn't want to admit it. They felt Cousins was a flash in the pants and that he couldn't duplicate it. However both Gruden and McCloughan made it clear the team would face a lost season if Cousins was allowed to walk. Facing a dramatic drop in ticket sales to accompany the never ending PR nightmare that was the Redskins' front office, Snyder/Allen chose to franchise him. They bet he couldn't sustain his end of 2015 performance. Once again, they were wrong. Cousins lit it up. Dude put up elite numbers.

Meanwhile, two major things happened during the 2016-2017 offseason. The QB market continued to explode, with guys like Mike Glennon getting a huge deal, and Derek Carr getting a monster one. It was obvious that the original 19 million a year deal simply wasn't going to cut it. It was also obvious that Cousins was more than satisfied with being franchised again. Given the amount of money they guaranteed him, I don't blame him. But Cousins says all the right things, became a leader on the field, and learned to deliver in the clutch.

The second issue was the massive dysfunction that had come to a head at Redskins park. Allen had basically forced McCloughan out, with tales of heavy drinking being circulated throughout the media. McCoughlan wasn't at the combine and in March, was let go. Bruce Allen held press conferences and radio interviews with Tennessee sports talk radio, alleging  problems with McCloughan. The Redskins again elected to franchise Cousins, in the hope of working out a long term deal.

Which did not happen, and  in July of 2017, Bruce Allen held a press conference at Redskins Park where he informed everyone that "K-U-R-T Cousins" turned down $53 million guaranteed. Yes, Kurt. The president of the team mispronounced the first name of the franchise quarterback. Six freaking times. He chose his words carefully, saying that the contract would guarantee $53 million and make him the second highest paid per year over the contract. What he failed to mention was they were already in for 24 million, so the guarantee was only about 20 million more and the deal was fairly backloaded. Cousins' agent did not counter offer.

So Cousins is playing another year on the franchise tag, and despite losing his two 1000 yard receivers, he's second in passing yards. For his entire time in DC, Cousins has been brushed off and cast aside by ownership, who either didn't want him or refused to believe in him. He's been through two coaches and now three OCs. He watched as the GM who most believed in him was slandered in the press and embarrassingly drummed out of his job. He's watched the front office be one of the most inept and disingenuous in all of sports.

And now that same ownership is expecting to get some sort of home town discount. So yeah, that's why there isn't a deal despite three years. Because ownership didn't want to until it was too late.

This should be required reading by everyone when discussing Cousins in Washington and his contract.

Well done!

[Dashing202]

2 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

And me, as a Redskins fan, thinks you are completely wrong.

@TXsteeler's take is correct

Lol 

So you think kirks elite or a good qb ?

 

To me he's average .. I won't stand here and say he's terrible or awful tho just simply average and at times great or god awful.

[Thaiphoon]

3 minutes ago, Dashing202 said:

Lol 

So you think kirks elite or a good qb ?

 

To me he's average .. I won't stand here and say he's terrible or awful tho just simply average and at times great or god awful.

He's a top10 QB who is getting better.

Your plan is to get rid of one and roll the dice on a rookie QB.

 

Not.Smart

[Dashing202]

Just now, Thaiphoon said:

He's a top10 QB who is getting better.

Your plan is to get rid of one and roll the dice on a rookie QB.

 

Not.Smart

Ctfu it's been working for the Rams and eagles and Texans .

idc if our rookie is shaky his first year but build around him and go into year two for a huge push .

9-7 to me is whatever I want 11-5 and 12-4 and it's time for gruden to get his handpicked qb . 

Wait top ten qb ?

 

 

[Thaiphoon]

36 minutes ago, Dashing202 said:

Ctfu it's been working for the Rams and eagles and Texans .

idc if our rookie is shaky his first year but build around him and go into year two for a huge push .

9-7 to me is whatever I want 11-5 and 12-4 and it's time for gruden to get his handpicked qb . 

Wait top ten qb ?

 

 

Are we picking in the Top 2 or 3 picks? No.

Additionally, did the Rams, Eagles and Texans have a Top 10 QB on their roster?

No.

So your point is moot

 

Yes, top 10. Most people who can evaluate QB talent have him Top 10. Is he Elite yet? No. But he's the best of the very good and trending upward.

And you want to get rid of a player like that and roll the dice.

Bird in hand

[TXsteeler]

3 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

Are we picking in the Top 2 or 3 picks? No.

Additionally, did the Rams, Eagles and Texans have a Top 10 QB on their roster?

No.

So your point is moot

 

Yes, top 10. Most people who can evaluate QB talent have him Top 10. Is he Elite yet? No. But he's the best of the very good and trending upward.

And you want to get rid of a player like that and roll the dice.

Bird in hand

Exactly. Like it or not, but Kirk is good enough to keep you guys out of the top 10 picks every year, so even if he doesn't come back for 2018, you aren't getting a great QB this draft (I actually don't follow cfb or prospects so I don't know this, but there are a lot of teams looking for QBs ahead of the Redskins).

Is paying Kirk $25M+ a year a crappy deal when he could have been gotten for much cheaper just a year ago? Yes. Is paying Kirk $25M a year a crappy deal compared to letting him walk? Hell no. 

I personally would want Kirk on the Steelers if Ben retires this year, but I've heard that they won't have the money to sign him because of dead money or something from Ben's last year. I hope to god the redskins somehow franchise him one more time so that Ben can leave after the 2018 season and we can sign him straight up. It'll suck for the Redskins fans who thought Kirk should have been signed short term after 2015 and know today he is the best option, but the ownership honestly doesn't deserve him.

It's sad because Kirk and Gruden could end up being a good combo, neither one is really elite, but they are capable of winning a SB. Hell, they're both better than their counterparts in Cincy and yet Washington will likely watch them both leave before the end of the decade and then they will be back to the drawing board just like they were 25 years ago after Gibbs and Rypien left.

[mtmmike]

Would love to have him throwing to Gordon,Coleman,and njoku plus have barkley to run the ball.

[GreenMean69]

Whats funny is , Kirk using the tags to determine his value .... Ok so when it was 20 million ok .   But since he got a 2nd tag it was now 120 %   So now  he thinks he is worth more than that while being a .500  QB .  So Im sure in his little head that has very low pocket awareness  Thinks  he is worth the value of 3x tag .  Redskins already had trouble getting solid players around him after letting two 1k yard Wrs walk.  His value should of been around 18-20  if Skins did not mess up , and now will command up to 30 million.  That extra 10-12 Million  could of been used to add some nice pieces to help him and team out .   He is not the type of QB  that can carry the weight of team on his shoulders.  

Skins really are screwed either way they go ... Pay/ tag him it hurts them  , let him walk it hurts them.  They just have to figure which is lesser of 2 evils . Kirk also needs to think about which team is best fit for him if he leaves ... He will need a strong cast around him .  If he comands 30 million  will other teams want him ? Its alot better to draft a QB of the future and have them on the cheap  while you get good team built around him ... Unlike the Browns that want to build a team and then toss a QB inrto what the build .... Which can be like sticking a square peg in a round hole.