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Cousins value and the next wave of big contracts


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On 11/30/2017 at 12:59 AM, Dashing202 said:

Kirk cousins is inconsistent 

 

As an redskins fan he isn't worth the money . He will go to the most paying team avalible .

 

and that won't be in Washington I doubt it . 

 

I'm sorry you feel that way because you guys will never get a QB better than Kirk for less money outside of drafting one and having that guy on a rookie contract. And there are only usually 1 to 2 guys on Kirk's level drafted each year, and about 10 teams that need a QB.

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1 hour ago, TXsteeler said:

I'm sorry you feel that way because you guys will never get a QB better than Kirk for less money outside of drafting one and having that guy on a rookie contract. And there are only usually 1 to 2 guys on Kirk's level drafted each year, and about 10 teams that need a QB.

I'll take my chance he isn't worth 100 million. I rather draft and use the money to build more on the redskins .

And he isn't taking us to the SB he struggles when the light flashes 

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If Washington wants to keep Cousins, they franchise tag him. If they don't, they transition tag him and let a team like Cleveland take him... or just let him walk.

The transition tag would be the worst thing to use if they're serious about keeping him. They'll end up spending more with that than they would the franchise tag.

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2 hours ago, Dashing202 said:

I'll take my chance he isn't worth 100 million. I rather draft and use the money to build more on the redskins .

And he isn't taking us to the SB he struggles when the light flashes 

How has that worked for you guys since 1993? Kirk can absolutely win a superbowl, he is a top 10 QB who has been on a pretty bad/injured team.

I do not understand redskins fans who hate Kirk. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/career-passing.htm look at the stats. He will likely pass Rypien for pass yards within 2 more games, and could pass him for TDs if he has a good last quarter of the year. If you guys manage to somehow draft a QB better than Kirk, you will have him for four years before he resigns a deal for whatever the equivalent of $30M a year is by then, because that's just how QB salary inflation works.

At this point, $100 million would be a bargain for Cousins.The salary cap has gone up over 10 million dollars per year for four years in a row, and it's going to continue to go up because the TV deals are signed through 2021 or 2022 except for TNF games, so the decreased ratings won't effect them. 

Looking at contracts as anything other than % of salary cap is worthless. You can find a list of salary caps by year here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary_cap#National_Football_League, and a list of largest contracts ever here https://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/biggest-contracts-nfl-history.html/?a=viewall.

If The redskins had accepted the $19M a year in 2015 as Slateman mentioned, it would have only been 13.3% of the cap that year.

When Kaepernick signed for $21M a year in 2014 it was 15.8% of the salary cap that year.

When Flacco signed for $20.1M a year in 2013 it was 16.3% of the salary cap that year.

When Carson Palmer signed for $13.3M a year in 2005 it was 15.5% of the salary cap that year.

When Vick signed for $13M a year in 2004 it was 16.1% of the salary cap that year.

When Rodgers signed for $22M a year in 2013 it was 17.9% of the salary cap that year.

When Ryan signed for $20.75M a year in 2013 it was 16.9% of the salary cap that year.

When Luck signed for $23.3M a year in 2016 it was 15.0% of the salary cap that year.

When Carr signed for $25M a year in 2017 it was 15.0% of the salary cap that year.

Other QB's have signed big contracts in the past 10 years or so that was around high 14s to mid 15s percentage wise but in general a big QB deal is around 15-16% of the salary cap depending on other factors, including competition or lack thereof, hometown discounts, guaranteed money, previously signed deals, etc. Before Carr signed his deal, people were saying Cousins was valued around $24M a year which would have put him under 15%. Now it's gone up because another year has gone by, so inflation + Kirk's play + other QB deals have warranted it.

Do the math yourself by just guesstimating the salary cap next year and comparing it against a value Kirk would be paid.

For next year I think that $26M a year would be round about right, and if the salary cap increases another $10M to $177M, then it would only be 14.7% of the salary cap.

Taking $177M as the next years cap, forKirk to match the 15% of Luck and Carr he would need to be paid $26.55M, to match the 16% of Vick he would need to be paid $28.32M, to match the 17% of Ryan, he would need to be paid $30.09M, and to match the insane (but not for Rodgers) 18% he would need to be paid $31.86M per year.

So yeah, 100 million would be overpaying Kirk, if it was a three year contract.

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On 11/26/2017 at 10:27 PM, TXsteeler said:

What does Kirk have to gain by not letting Washington's offer sit on the table for a couple more months, and what does he have to lose by doing so?

Just because the offer is there doesn't mean it just sits there forever. If he makes them wait they might think getting someone like Keenum for much cheaper is a more advantageous option and Kirk is left going elsewhere for possibly less than what Washington offered

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12 hours ago, TXsteeler said:

Cousin's already has all the leverage. The Franchise tag is the only way they can gain any back.

That's just not true. The transition tag gives them more leverage because other teams do the work for them. With the franchise tag, Cousins is guaranteed $34+ million. He's also guaranteed that Washington can't franchise him or transition tag him again. Cousins gets full control of any contract negotiations, and if he doesn't want to negotiate, he doesn't have to negotiate. The franchise tag would be the worst move Washington could make.

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16 minutes ago, OleXmad said:

He's not gonna say no to 34 million dollars. 

While I would usually agree, I can see that as the next step of escalation - Cousins flat out turns down a lottery-esque payout to prove a point. 

Walter Jones basically played his career under the tag, and probably made more money than all of his counterparts at LT. I don't get the insult associated with it. 

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We can only hope the Rwords are dumb enough to tag him again  LOL .  Its even better reading Rword fans rationalise his worth up 30 mil  Ive seen .  When they could of locked him up for 10 million less 2 seasons ago  and even more 3+  .   That 10 Million could go a long way liek get a real WR  and not bring in trash liek Pryor  or even get a few top notch players like a RB and new TE that they need.   The money that Kirk will want will cripple the Skins even more then they are now .   I LOVE IT  

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If I am not mistaken, if he is franchised, he receives the average salary of the top 5 QB's, so if they believe he is a franchise QB, paying him should not come into question!!! Cousins is taking all the risks, because to retain him under contract likely would have cost them 160-180 million in guaranteed money and if he gets injured, they would still owe him that amount for years to come.

This way, the Redskins are off the hook if Cousins gets seriously injured and can move on without owing him money for seasons he would never play, ditto, if his playing ability falls off.

Most football players, simply do not want to risk getting injured and being out of football after only a few years of high salaries, that is why most sign extended contracts. If Cousins stays healthy for another 3 years, he is a solid winner, but if he gets injured or hisd play falls off, he will be the stupid one.

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7 hours ago, EliteTexan80 said:

While I would usually agree, I can see that as the next step of escalation - Cousins flat out turns down a lottery-esque payout to prove a point. 

Walter Jones basically played his career under the tag, and probably made more money than all of his counterparts at LT. I don't get the insult associated with it. 

Yep and or take it a step further, tell them upfront. You Tag Me , Transition Me I'm not signing until after 10gms like Vincent Jackson did. Let the Media go crazy 24/7. Apply pressure to the Organization. Create tension and become a distraction!

Then he can still collect a cool what 10-$12M worth of game checks??? He's got way more Power then people want to Admit!!!

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