Who Trades Up to 1?

[goldfishwars]

A deal to move up to one is expected to be concluded prior to free agency next week. Which team do you think is best placed (most desperate) to make that deal with the Bears? 
 

Also, if we do a consensus mock I might kick it off with whoever wins this poll as there’s no way Chicago stays #1.

Edited March 7, 2023 by goldfishwars

[jebrick]

I think Houston and Indy picks 1 and 2 in the draft.  You can flip between the 2 for 1 and 2 slots.  all depends on if the Bears can convince Houston to trade up.

[BowlesDawgDX]

 

Just to add

[MWil23]

I'm rooting for a Bears trade back from 1 to 2 and then from 2 to 4 to maximize their value. That roster is just...yikes.

[goldfishwars]

Just now, MWil23 said:

I'm rooting for a Bears trade back from 1 to 2 and then from 2 to 4 to maximize their value. That roster is just...yikes.

Does that definitely set them up better than going from 1-4? I guess in theory it would, but all the value of moving up from 4 to 1 would be to guarantee getting your guy. 

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Does that definitely set them up better than going from 1-4? I guess in theory it would, but all the value of moving up from 4 to 1 would be to guarantee getting your guy. 

I think it really depends on the value chart, but IMO you're looking at:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

400 points to move up from 2 to 1

800 points to move up from 4 to 2

...or 1200 points to move up from 4 to 1.

So I guess it's a complete wash per the points...but if you're able to convince a team like Indy that you're working on another trade back with a team like Carolina, you could perhaps force them to overpay to move up.

Realistically, it may be more valuable to move from 1 to 4 now and hold Indianapolis hostage and trigger a bidding war now, but I don't know.

[goldfishwars]

15 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I think it really depends on the value chart, but IMO you're looking at:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

400 points to move up from 2 to 1

800 points to move up from 4 to 2

...or 1200 points to move up from 4 to 1.

So I guess it's a complete wash per the points...but if you're able to convince a team like Indy that you're working on another trade back with a team like Carolina, you could perhaps force them to overpay to move up.

Realistically, it may be more valuable to move from 1 to 4 now and hold Indianapolis hostage and trigger a bidding war now, but I don't know.

I think if you move to two now, you sit tight and see who calls on draft night - because it's gonna depend so much on who the Texans take. 

[goldfishwars]

Just now, goldfishwars said:

I think if you move to two now, you sit tight and see who calls on draft night - because it's gonna depend so much on who the Texans take. 

Also, Trade Chart sort of goes out of the window if multiple teams are bidding

[MWil23]

9 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

I think if you move to two now, you sit tight and see who calls on draft night - because it's gonna depend so much on who the Texans take. 

100% agreed, absolutely. IMO the best play on draft day is using scarcity to your advantage, which is time on the clock. You field offers for the next 30+ days and then go on the clock with an assortment of offers allowing each team to make a final offer, then you take your best one.

[MWil23]

26 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

So I guess it's a complete wash per the points...but if you're able to convince a team like Indy that you're working on another trade back with a team like Carolina, you could perhaps force them to overpay to move up.

 

10 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

I think if you move to two now, you sit tight and see who calls on draft night - because it's gonna depend so much on who the Texans take. 

 

[goldfishwars]

2 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

100% agreed, absolutely. IMO the best play on draft day is using scarcity to your advantage, which is time on the clock. You field offers for the next 30+ days and then go on the clock with an assortment of offers allowing each team to make a final offer, then you take your best one.

Only drawback is gonna be teams who have a free agency coming up to fill their needs. If you wait until draft night for the next trade, invariably you’ll be discussing next year’s assets more than this year’s. Not necessarily a bad thing for Chicago if they can afford to wait.

[General Tso]

If I'm Houston, both Stroud and Young are neck and neck and I won't let the Bears finesse me for one of them.

[MikeT14]

I don't think it would happen, but Carolina would probably have to do something like:

#1/3000 for #9/1350, #39/510, #61/292

You probably have to throw in a future #1 after that. 

[MWil23]

8 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Only drawback is gonna be teams who have a free agency coming up to fill their needs. If you wait until draft night for the next trade, invariably you’ll be discussing next year’s assets more than this year’s. Not necessarily a bad thing for Chicago if they can afford to wait.

Given that I think you have 2 clear cut QB's on the board with Stroud and Young, I think they're willing to let the dust settle with Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers on the front end of things.

I think that they're also very likely to want future assets that go beyond this year because their roster is that bad and this is also a weak draft class. I think they're potentially in a position to say "we'll be back here next year if Fields doesn't progress" and then get someone like Caleb Williams or do the same type of draft war chest move...or even grab someone like a Marvin Harrison Jr. should Fields show promise but they still lose games.

[TankWilliams]

Detroit is the least likely of that group, Poles said in an interview with Big Cat that they haven't ruled it out, but compensation would need to be "Significantly Higher" to trade the pick within the division.  My bet is Indianapolis as the most likely, followed by Carolina.