The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?

[StLunatic88]

Im still iffy that Soto gets traded this Deadline, but I am up alittle but from like 10% to like 25%. All the smoke from the national writers about us as a matching suitor has to come from somewhere.

I have also seen more of those pundits start/continue to name Liberatore as an arm in the deal. I know were all lower on him than a year ago, but I think its foolish to say they wouldnt value him at all just because he isnt projecting as an Ace. Hes still an MLB arm, who while he wouldnt likely be there after the rebuild, they could flip again in 2 years before he even hits Arbitration.

I think its far fetched that the Cardinals would send Both Walker and Winn, and I think they are also trying to hold onto Tink Hence if they can. I also think they are at differing level of comfortable sending any of the Major League Fielders out in a trade not named Arenado, Goldschmidt or Edman.

I have no true insights on what the deal would look like, but just reading tea leaves, this is what I think we might be offering, and I say I would do it. 

Cardinals Receive:

• Juan Soto OF
• Patrick Corbin SP (+ the difference of this years remaining money)

Nationals Receive:

• Jordan Walker 3B/OF
• Paul DeJong SS
• Nolan Gorman INF
• Mathew Liberatore SP
• Gordon Graceffo SP
• Delvin Perez INF

This would give the Nats what I think is the best single Prospect they are being offered in Walker, but pinning Corbin's contract to this deal, really hinders the rest of the return. Gorman is the Major League ready Bat, and has the most team control left of any of our options that fit the criteria (keeping Carlson here is a win) While Liberatore isnt a FOTR Ace, he is still projects as a pretty good Major League Arm, and then Graceffo is the hot prospect right now who probably has more value now than he ever will going forward as an asset. DeJong is the small offset to Corbin's money (we still are eating like an extra $50m from them) and with his turn around in the Minors, they may have a Vet there or can flip him in the offseason as well. And Perez just represents the one lower teir lottery ticket they can pick from our system (maybe this is a Luken Baker, but someone who will likely not see our big club, but could hit it big in the right situation)

Some might say this isnt nearly enough, while others will say Walker himself is already too much if we are taking back Corbin's contract. Which is why I think its a realistic situation. With Matz's injury, we become more inclined to do the Corbin piece to just eat innings, as well as lower the prospect price. And in addition to clearing the books, the Nats also get 4/5 Major League players (in the next 18ish months) a few of which they could potentially flip for more value in year or 2 (DeJong/Liberatore) ontop of the Best Prospect they are offered here.

 

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by StLunatic88

[JonStark]

14 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Cardinals Receive:

• Juan Soto OF
• Patrick Corbin SP (+ the difference of this years remaining money)

Nationals Receive:

• Jordan Walker 3B/OF
• Paul DeJong SS
• Nolan Gorman INF
• Mathew Liberatore SP
• Gordon Graceffo SP
• Delvin Perez INF

I'm in the "that's too much" camp. Losing Walker, Gorman, and Liberatore while also taking back Corbin is a deal breaker. 

I might be in the minority that values Gorman over Winn though. If you sub those two, I could be on board with it. I would just hate to see Walker go so I'm holding out hope there is a way we can avoid that as long as Corbin is part of it.

[kgarrett12486]

17 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Im still iffy that Soto gets traded this Deadline, but I am up alittle but from like 10% to like 25%. All the smoke from the national writers about us as a matching suitor has to come from somewhere.

I have also seen more of those pundits start/continue to name Liberatore as an arm in the deal. I know were all lower on him than a year ago, but I think its foolish to say they wouldnt value him at all just because he isnt projecting as an Ace. Hes still an MLB arm, who while he wouldnt likely be there after the rebuild, they could flip again in 2 years before he even hits Arbitration.

I think its far fetched that the Cardinals would send Both Walker and Winn, and I think they are also trying to hold onto Tink Hence if they can. I also think they are at differing level of comfortable sending any of the Major League Fielders out in a trade not named Arenado, Goldschmidt or Edman.

I have no true insights on what the deal would look like, but just reading tea leaves, this is what I think we might be offering, and I say I would do it. 

Cardinals Receive:

• Juan Soto OF
• Patrick Corbin SP (+ the difference of this years remaining money)

Nationals Receive:

• Jordan Walker 3B/OF
• Paul DeJong SS
• Nolan Gorman INF
• Mathew Liberatore SP
• Gordon Graceffo SP
• Delvin Perez INF

This would give the Nats what I think is the best single Prospect they are being offered in Walker, but pinning Corbin's contract to this deal, really hinders the rest of the return. Gorman is the Major League ready Bat, and has the most team control left of any of our options that fit the criteria (keeping Carlson here is a win) While Liberatore isnt a FOTR Ace, he is still projects as a pretty good Major League Arm, and then Graceffo is the hot prospect right now who probably has more value now than he ever will going forward as an asset. DeJong is the small offset to Corbin's money (we still are eating like an extra $50m from them) and with his turn around in the Minors, they may have a Vet there or can flip him in the offseason as well. And Perez just represents the one lower teir lottery ticket they can pick from our system (maybe this is a Luken Baker, but someone who will likely not see our big club, but could hit it big in the right situation)

Some might say this isnt nearly enough, while others will say Walker himself is already too much if we are taking back Corbin's contract. Which is why I think its a realistic situation. With Matz's injury, we become more inclined to do the Corbin piece to just eat innings, as well as lower the prospect price. And in addition to clearing the books, the Nats also get 4/5 Major League players (in the next 18ish months) a few of which they could potentially flip for more value in year or 2 (DeJong/Liberatore) ontop of the Best Prospect they are offered here.

 

 

I still think it's highly unlikely he gets moved ahead of the deadline. I still think this is such a complicated deal and the potential money/bad contracts that would be changing hands here makes this more of an off-season type of move. Like you said though, there is a lot of smoke from the national pundits, so who really knows. Of course, Nats could be leaking that the Cards are serious contenders in order to help push up other teams to part with better packages. other teams know the type of farm system we possess right now, so Nats floating out there that they are seriously considering us would maybe push other teams with good farms (Yankees, Mets) to include more. 

I'm going to go with the Nationals beat reporters when they say Nats don't value Liberatore as highly. If Liberatore ends up in the deal because they settle then that's good with me, as I'd rather keep Hence, who I believe projects as a FOTR guy (and a guy that Nats would push for) vs. Liberatore who's ceiling is a #2 to me, but most likely ends up as a #3/4 type (which is where I had him pegged even before his showings this year). There is still immense value in these arms now. 

If the deal above was on the table, I'd sign up for that w/out hesitation. Loosing Walker would hurt, but This team would have a higher probability IMO to win a title over the next 2.5 years with some minor roster tweaks. 

[CWood21]

17 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Cardinals Receive:

• Juan Soto OF
• Patrick Corbin SP (+ the difference of this years remaining money)

Nationals Receive:

• Jordan Walker 3B/OF
• Paul DeJong SS
• Nolan Gorman INF
• Mathew Liberatore SP
• Gordon Graceffo SP
• Delvin Perez INF

Still think any deal with Juan Soto coming to the Cardinals would require one of the St. Louis OFers to end up in Washington.  If they acquired Soto without one of the OFers coming back, they'd be sitting one of Harrison Bader or Tyler O'Neill since you're not benching Soto or Dylan Carlson.

[StLunatic88]

3 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I'm going to go with the Nationals beat reporters when they say Nats don't value Liberatore as highly.

But just as you pointed out that the Nats might be leaking our interest to push for better packages from other suitors, wouldnt the same logic play if their very own beat writes are touting their muted interest in one of our highest rated pitching prospects? 

Its trade season, so nothing can really be believed from anyone

[StLunatic88]

Just now, CWood21 said:

Still think any deal with Juan Soto coming to the Cardinals would require one of the St. Louis OFers to end up in Washington.  If they acquired Soto without one of the OFers coming back, they'd be sitting one of Harrison Bader or Tyler O'Neill since you're not benching Soto or Dylan Carlson.

Thats where the DH comes in, which we still havent had any consistency out of. Especially with O'Neill having had some injuries already this year, giving him more time off from the field would be ideal right now.

And then going into next year, you use one of those original 3 OFs (plus maybe even Yepez) as ammo to go get an Arm. 

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, StLunatic88 said:

Thats where the DH comes in, which we still havent had any consistency out of. Especially with O'Neill having had some injuries already this year, giving him more time off from the field would be ideal right now.

And then going into next year, you use one of those original 3 OFs (plus maybe even Yepez) as ammo to go get an Arm. 

We've still got Juan Yepez as our best DH option, plus unless you're committing to a clear DH I think you're best using the DH to help rest your star players.  Give Goldy a day at DH, Arenado at DH, etc. to help rest the players a bit more.

[StLunatic88]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

We've still got Juan Yepez as our best DH option, plus unless you're committing to a clear DH I think you're best using the DH to help rest your star players.  Give Goldy a day at DH, Arenado at DH, etc. to help rest the players a bit more.

Yepez is a better DH option than Tyler O'Neill? Youre really going to argue that?

[CWood21]

Just now, StLunatic88 said:

Yepez is a better DH option than Tyler O'Neill? Youre really going to argue that?

No.  But I'd argue that O'Neill is a better OFer then Yepez.

[StLunatic88]

Just now, CWood21 said:

No.  But I'd argue that O'Neill is a better OFer then Yepez.

And...? Im talking about a scenario where the Nationals are valuing Years of Control more than anything, which makes Gorman more desirable, and they would rather have him over Carlson. So that leaves us with 4 starting caliber OF, which then pushes one into the DH spot for 2+ months. And Im taking O'Neill in that spot, not Yepez

[kgarrett12486]

51 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

We've still got Juan Yepez as our best DH option, plus unless you're committing to a clear DH I think you're best using the DH to help rest your star players.  Give Goldy a day at DH, Arenado at DH, etc. to help rest the players a bit more.

 

44 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

And...? Im talking about a scenario where the Nationals are valuing Years of Control more than anything, which makes Gorman more desirable, and they would rather have him over Carlson. So that leaves us with 4 starting caliber OF, which then pushes one into the DH spot for 2+ months. And Im taking O'Neill in that spot, not Yepez

Or we're taking that 4th MLB OF (depending on what happens with Bader's health) and looking to deal that surplus in a separate deal for pitching, or maybe another need in off-season. 

[kgarrett12486]

58 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

But just as you pointed out that the Nats might be leaking our interest to push for better packages from other suitors, wouldnt the same logic play if their very own beat writes are touting their muted interest in one of our highest rated pitching prospects? 

Its trade season, so nothing can really be believed from anyone

100% so. We really have no idea either way.

[kgarrett12486]

''Sources told SI’s Tom Verducci the expectation is that the two-time All-Star is expected to be dealt in the immediate future.

Who’s on the list of teams that could push to acquire the 23-year-old? Nearly everybody, include some names you might not expect to be in the mix for such a blockbuster deal. From Verducci:

In addition to the trade package, Soto will cost a team about $5.3 million for the remainder of this season and about $55 million for his final two arbitration seasons. The Twins are paying Carlos Correa $81 million over the same 2 ½ years. Every team with the hope of winning the World Series in this three-year window must be in on Soto—including the Guardians and Rays.

Cleveland and Tampa Bay? Yes. The pool is that deep.

Start with the obvious teams that are never out of a bidding war because of their resources: the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs.

Add teams with new ownership who are willing to mortgage the long-term cost to seize this three-season window for a long-awaited World Series championship: the Mets, Padres and Guardians. Never discount new owner motivation as the X factor in these kinds of deals. And add the Rays to this group, not because the ownership is new but because they are desperate to generate momentum toward a new ballpark somewhere. (See their free agent interest in Freddie Freeman.)''

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

And...? Im talking about a scenario where the Nationals are valuing Years of Control more than anything, which makes Gorman more desirable, and they would rather have him over Carlson. So that leaves us with 4 starting caliber OF, which then pushes one into the DH spot for 2+ months. And Im taking O'Neill in that spot, not Yepez

We're making a LOT of assumptions.  I'm not sure that years of control is the only factor.  Right now, if I were to rank the Cardinals' assets, I'd rank them:

(Tier 1)
1.) Jordan Walker
2.) Dylan Carlson
(Tier 2)
3.) Masyn Winn
3.) Nolan Gorman
4.) Tyler O'Neill
5.) Tink Hence
(Tier 3)
6.) Matt Liberatore
7.) Gordon Graceffo
8.) Zack Thompson
9.) Michael McGreevy
10.) Ivan Herrera
11.) Harrison Bader

And that's more in general, not team-specific.  Broke it into tiers to make things easier on the eyes rather than a straight list.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Or we're taking that 4th MLB OF (depending on what happens with Bader's health) and looking to deal that surplus in a separate deal for pitching, or maybe another need in off-season. 

You don't make deals operating under the assumption that the player is going to get hurt.  IF the Cardinals made a deal based around Jordan Walker (that didn't include O'Neill, Bader, or Carlson), they'd run Carlson out in CF until Bader gets healthy, and then you'd likely see O'Neill move to DH until they want to give one of the other OFers a day off.