The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?

[kgarrett12486]

49 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Making a Juan Soto trade is damn near impossible because it either means depleting your farm system of all your top prospects, or pulling from your MLB roster to help supplement a trade.  I mean, players of Juan Soto's caliber don't come around very often either.

Right now, the Cardinals' OF consists of Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson.  One of those players goes to the bench if the Cardinals acquired Juan Soto, so likely one would need to be included in the trade to send back to Washington.  Dylan Carlson probably has the most value of the bunch with one more year of team control plus 3 years of arbitration.  Between Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader, I'd probably say that O'Neill has more trade value even if there's more variation from that.

The Nationals are almost assuredly going to want Jordan Walker in the deal, and as much as I overvalue prospects I think it's going to be really hard to give up Walker even if it is for Juan Soto.  Looking at the other major market teams (LAD, NYY, NYM, etc.), are they going to be willing to give up their top 25 prospects?  And willing to take back Patrick Corbin?  I just found that MLB trade simulator, and it says that a Carlson, Gorman, Liberatore, and DeJong for Soto and Burnes is a moderate overpay for the Cardinals.

I agree with you, the odds of the Cardinals trading for Soto are like 5%, the odds of Soto being traded at all right now (before the deadline) are like 20% IMO. with that said though, man if there was ever a time for the Cardinals to step out on the ledge though, this would be it. Soto is a generation type player and these guys just don't get moved. He's better than any of the FA's that have been available over the last 5+ years, he's better pretty much any of the players traded in the last 5+ years (including Goldy and Arenado). The closest comp I could come up with is when Machado got traded to LAD back in 2018. Even that though, you can make legit argument Soto is better player and he definitely has more value given that you get (2) years of control vs. the rental Machado was.

If the Nationals want an MLB major-league ready guy, I think it's going to be Carlson. He's got the immense upside and has already flashed. Plus, what he's shown recently in his ability to handle CF. Add in that with more control left than O'Neill and it just makes sense.

Losing Jordan Walker would be a massive blow, as he's the best hitting prospect we've had in our system in my lifetime. His numbers to date are better than Taveras and Pujols. Plus, he's got way more athleticism than I thought and looks like he could be a legit 15+ SB guy at MLB level. With that said, Soto is that type of player that would make you listen. A 23 year old who is already a top five hitter in the entire MLB and just going into his prime. We're talking about a guy who has (1) season of more than 100K's, he's got a higher walk rate than K rate over his career, he's got an OBP above .400 for his career. Those are insane numbers for that young of a hitter and he projects to get BETTER.

If I could find a way to keep Walker out of a deal I would. I heard on MLB radio today they asked a Nats insider what he thought a deal from Cardinals would look like not including Walker. He said it would be a Carlson, Gorman, Wynn, Graceffo and a Malcolm Nunez type (of note, he echoed what I said in my earlier post that Nats won't have interest in Liberatore). If that is the deal, I think I'd sign off on that.

Now the reality is, I don't think Cards could make this work financially, as Corbin will likely be attached. His salary escalates to $35 million in 2024. Even with the money coming off the books next year,  your still adding almost $50 million to the payroll.         

[StLunatic88]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And willing to take back Patrick Corbin?

Its beyond unlikely that they are going to find someone to do that while also gearing up to pay Soto, AND get any type of good prospect haul in return. 

The Nationals can either use Soto to restock their farm system, or to clear themselves of Corbins contract, they arent going to be able to pull off both

There just arent enough teams that are interested that have enough money and prospects, and none of them are desperate here.

Edited July 21, 2022 by StLunatic88

[CWood21]

37 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Its beyond unlikely that they are going to find someone to do that while also gearing up to pay Soto, AND get any type of good prospect haul in return. 

The Nationals can either use Soto to restock their farm system, or to clear themselves of Corbins contract, they arent going to be able to pull off both

There just arent enough teams that are interested that have enough money and prospects, and none of them are desperate here.

I'm with @kgarrett12486 on this one, I don't think the Cardinals are going to get Juan Soto, but I'm also not sure that we're going to see this megastar haul.  If you want to pull some players from our MLB roster, then the prospect haul is going to be less impressive.  I would absolutely be willing to absorb Patrick Corbin in a deal, although I'd try to send Paul DeJong back to counterweigh the bad money being dealt.  That'd be $59.8M in the next two years as opposed to $11.2M in dead money.

I'm not inclined to include Jordan Walker in a deal, because I'm not convinced that any team is willing to give up a top 10 prospect and then sign Juan Soto to that mega-deal that's inevitably going to happen.  For that reason, I'd probably not be willing to move him if you're dealing off the major league roster as well.  Given the sheer number of OFers the Cardinals have, they probably would need the Nationals to pick their choice of Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson.  I'd hate to see Dylan Carlson leave, but for Juan Soto that's a night and day upgrade and that's coming from someone who think Carlson will be a really good MLB player.  Likewise, I'd hate to part ways with Nolan Gorman, but he's a natural 3B who is playing a reasonable 2B.  If my choice was Masyn Winn or Nolan Gorman, I'd prefer to keep Winn and eventually slide him into SS and move Edman back to 2B.  IF the Cardinals moved Gorman, the selfless part of me would like to include Liberatore in the deal.  I don't think the Nationals are opposed to bringing over Liberatore, but I think some of the shine has came off and he's no longer the centerpiece of a potential trade type of prospect.  And if it helped keep the Cardinals from having to give up Tink Hence, I'd probably be inclined to include him.  Alec Burleson is probably a legitimate starting OFer, but he's not going to get that opportunity in St. Louis and Gordon Graceffo has made significant strides since he was drafted.

St. Louis Cardinals Receive:
SP Patrick Corbin
OF Juan Soto

Washington Nationals Receive:
SP Matthew Liberatore
SP Gordon Graceffo
SS Paul DeJong
3B Nolan Gorman
OF Dylan Carlson
OF Alec Burleson

[StLunatic88]

33 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I don't think the Cardinals are going to get Juan Soto

I dont really think the Nationals are going to trade him this year, which at that point he loses a good chunk of his appeal to us. We all keep saying "but its Juan Soto" which is why I think the Nats try to do this for another year and then offload him before next years deadline, which is a whole different level of value. 

33 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I would absolutely be willing to absorb Patrick Corbin in a deal, although I'd try to send Paul DeJong back to counterweigh the bad money being dealt.

If somehow they added Corbin to the deal, they would HAVE to take DeJong, thats obvious (although you didnt put him in your trade).

33 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not inclined to include Jordan Walker in a deal, because I'm not convinced that any team is willing to give up a top 10 prospect and then sign Juan Soto to that mega-deal that's inevitably going to happen.

I think you are very wrong about that, IF he were to be traded in the next two weeks. After that, everything changes. 

I think Us, the Mets, the Jays, the Yankees, the Giants and the Dodgers all would be willing to put a Top 10-ish prospect in a deal for 2+ years of Soto. It then comes down to who they value more, and who is willing to add in the most extra pieces. Now if you alter what the Nats are giving away (adding Corbin and his contract, taking away time the new team would have Soto) then those deals drastically change.

33 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

St. Louis Cardinals Receive:
SP Patrick Corbin
OF Juan Soto

Washington Nationals Receive:
SP Matthew Liberatore
SP Gordon Graceffo
3B Nolan Gorman
OF Dylan Carlson
OF Alec Burleson

Assuming DeJong and his money is going back to the Nats, I would do this in a heartbeat. We would be giving away a very good young OF, what I see as a boom or bust bat in Gorman, another bat I really dont care about, and then 2 mid-back of the rotation starters. But that is the reality for the Nats if they want to use Soto to get out of the Corbin deal (who at the least could be an innings eater for us). But that is a very underwhelming haul for Soto, which is why I dont think they put Corbin in, and take a higher prospect type deal as they completely rebuild.

Edited July 21, 2022 by StLunatic88

[MOSteelers56]

My take is simple; if we can get Soto plus keep Walker, Winn, and Hence, then do it in a heartbeat. 

[kgarrett12486]

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Nationals "have begun fielding preliminary offers" for a Juan Soto trade. Nightengale hears that the Mariners, Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals, Yankees, and Mets are among the teams that have already been in contact with Washington.

[holt_bruce81]

I think there’s a lot higher chance Soto gets dealt than 20%. I’d love to see the Cardinals get out of their comfort zone a little bit and make something work. Soto is a 23 year old mega-star. If the trade offer doesn’t make you a little uncomfortable, it’s probably not enough. 

[kgarrett12486]

7 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

I think there’s a lot higher chance Soto gets dealt than 20%. I’d love to see the Cardinals get out of their comfort zone a little bit and make something work. Soto is a 23 year old mega-star. If the trade offer doesn’t make you a little uncomfortable, it’s probably not enough. 

I think you missed where I said the 20% was him being dealt before the trade deadline. I think he's going to get moved (now with the coming to light of how they handled him during the AS game process and how pist that made Boras), but I think it's more probable it happens in the off-season. Especially if the Nats do indeed try to package him with Corbin's deal.

Teams will have a lot more flexibility to move money around in  he offseason to absorb that contract. 

[JonStark]

5 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

My take is simple; if we can get Soto plus keep Walker, Winn, and Hence, then do it in a heartbeat. 

Same here. I'd prefer to keep Gorman over Winn though and would love to somehow send Bader/TON instead of Carlson, but I'm fully aware that not all of that would happen. Keeping Walker and Hence are the big parts for me. 

[StLunatic88]

8 minutes ago, JonStark said:

Same here. I'd prefer to keep Gorman over Winn though and would love to somehow send Bader/TON instead of Carlson, but I'm fully aware that not all of that would happen. Keeping Walker and Hence are the big parts for me. 

Unless we’re taking on Corbin, we aren’t keeping Walker in this deal (this deadline) and do you really think Dewitt is taking on $40-50m for next year? And then $60M+ the year after?

Edited July 21, 2022 by StLunatic88

[CWood21]

10 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I dont really think the Nationals are going to trade him this year, which at that point he loses a good chunk of his appeal to us. We all keep saying "but its Juan Soto" which is why I think the Nats try to do this for another year and then offload him before next years deadline, which is a whole different level of value. 

Agreed.  Think next year is far more likely to be when he's dealt.  And I don't honestly think the package is going to change much before this deadline and next offseason.  I think that next deadline is the absolutely latest the Nationals can trade him before that package drops drastically.

10 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

If somehow they added Corbin to the deal, they would HAVE to take DeJong, thats obvious (although you didnt put him in your trade).

Yeah, that was an omission on my part.

10 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I think you are very wrong about that, IF he were to be traded in the next two weeks. After that, everything changes. 

I think Us, the Mets, the Jays, the Yankees, the Giants and the Dodgers all would be willing to put a Top 10-ish prospect in a deal for 2+ years of Soto. It then comes down to who they value more, and who is willing to add in the most extra pieces. Now if you alter what the Nats are giving away (adding Corbin and his contract, taking away time the new team would have Soto) then those deals drastically change.

Didn't write that out correctly.  I meant to say a team giving up a top 10 prospect AND one of their best, young players on their MLB roster.  The Cardinals with Dylan Carlson AND Jordan Walker, the Dodgers with Gavin Lux and Diego Cartaya, etc.

10 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Assuming DeJong and his money is going back to the Nats, I would do this in a heartbeat. We would be giving away a very good young OF, what I see as a boom or bust bat in Gorman, another bat I really dont care about, and then 2 mid-back of the rotation starters. But that is the reality for the Nats if they want to use Soto to get out of the Corbin deal (who at the least could be an innings eater for us). But that is a very underwhelming haul for Soto, which is why I dont think they put Corbin in, and take a higher prospect type deal as they completely rebuild.

Which means the Nationals probably wouldn't.

[JonStark]

11 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Unless we’re taking on Corbin, we aren’t keeping Walker in this deal (this deadline) and do you really think Dewitt is taking on $40-50m for next year? And then $60M+ the year after?

Yeah, I get it. Just would hate to see Walker go with all of his team control for a guy who is going to break the bank in 2.5 years. I just don't want to give up Walker, Carlson, and more in the same package. 

[StLunatic88]

2 hours ago, JonStark said:

Yeah, I get it. Just would hate to see Walker go with all of his team control for a guy who is going to break the bank in 2.5 years. I just don't want to give up Walker, Carlson, and more in the same package. 

I completely agree, I don’t want to, but I would for 3 playoff runs with Soto. Because realistically, we would be lucky to get 3-4 playoff runs with Walker at all (much less at a near MVP level) before he hits free agency. And it’s also not a given that the division is so poor in those future years.

But for me to give up Carlson+Walker it needs to be 2+ years of Soto and only for Soto (not involving Corbin)

[holt_bruce81]

Cooper Hjerpe signs for $3,182,200 (full slot). 

Cardinals also signed their 2nd round pick Brycen Mautz for $1.1 milllion ($1,246,200 slot value) 

[kgarrett12486]

Rumors are that Reds are asking for package similar to what Berrios took last year. Basically a top 20 MLB prospect and another higher end prospect. 

Not that they would trade him to is anyway, but no thanks to that.