The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?

[StLunatic88]

Always excited to see the new blood we bring in for the draft, but right now Im deep into the Soto thoughts

I keep swinging back and forth, and right now Im at the point, if we could trade for him this week and have him for 3 playoff runs guaranteed (not even factoring in a possible extension) Id be willing to give up a big chunk of prospects for him

I think Id give up Jordan Walker + Mathew Liberatore + Nolan Gorman + Alec Burleson + Whatever low tier/low upside arms to get it done

I know thats alot, But Soto is a franchise changer, and we will have the space to give him the money he wants on an extension (Goldy comes off the books) I think him passing on the Nats deal is more about their inability to contend any time soon than any need to be on a Market team/LA, because every team is going to pay him.

Walker could be a Stud, but Soto already IS. And Ive honestly cooled on the future of Gorman, could be very solid, but It feels more in the same line of good but underwhelming prospects weve had. I know hes still a rookie/prospect but Im worried that our front office isnt as committed to Liberatore as Id like, and Burleson is just a sweetener in some trade deal, he isnt likely to be a Cardinal contributor.

 

ALL this being said, I still dont think the Nats trade him till atleast the offseason, more likely next deadline or even next offseason. And they are still going to want that type of package, and one+ season isnt that valuable.

Edited July 18, 2022 by StLunatic88

[tttmikeb]

52 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Always excited to see the new blood we bring in for the draft, but right now Im deep into the Soto thoughts

I keep swinging back and forth, and right now Im at the point, if we could trade for him this week and have him for 3 playoff runs guaranteed (not even factoring in a possible extension) Id be willing to give up a big chunk of prospects for him

I think Id give up Jordan Walker + Mathew Liberatore + Nolan Gorman + Alec Burleson + Whatever low tier/low upside arms to get it done

I know thats alot, But Soto is a franchise changer, and we will have the space to give him the money he wants on an extension (Goldy comes off the books) I think him passing on the Nats deal is more about their inability to contend any time soon than any need to be on a Market team/LA, because every team is going to pay him.

Walker could be a Stud, but Soto already IS. And Ive honestly cooled on the future of Gorman, could be very solid, but It feels more in the same line of good but underwhelming prospects weve had. I know hes still a rookie/prospect but Im worried that our front office isnt as committed to Liberatore as Id like, and Burleson is just a sweetener in some trade deal, he isnt likely to be a Cardinal contributor.

 

ALL this being said, I still dont think the Nats trade him till atleast the offseason, more likely next deadline or even next offseason. And they are still going to want that type of package, and one+ season isnt that valuable.

Lots of good points there.  I'd just say that, while their inability to contend right now is likely a factor, I'd bet that him being a Boras client is a bigger one.  Boras clients don't sign extensions...they seek & get the richest deal on the open market.  If the Cardinals feel they know what that cost in dollars would be and are willing to pay it, then they might make that deal.  But I'd be very surprised if that was the case.

[StLunatic88]

21 minutes ago, tttmikeb said:

Boras clients don't sign extensions...they seek & get the richest deal on the open market.

This is certainly part of the Soto equation, but I often think the "Boras" effect is often overblown. He often "promises" the world for his clients publicly, so when they settle for less (still massive deals) he lets the teams think they are getting a deal (for home town or winning culture or whatever) 

Walkers agents arent pushovers either, and he could always move over to Boras himself. And if we are assuming that he is coming next season (2023) the difference to Free Agency is 4 years, obviously very valuable, but its not a 3 month rental vs a prospect 3 years away that you are planning the next decade around.

[CWood21]

8 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Not a fan of the Hjerpe selection. He's got command of his 3 pitches, but none of them really wow. Guess his curveball is his best offering. The wonky side arm delivery is deceptive, but how much so when he gets to the higher levels? He should be a fast riser through the system though.

I'm guessing he'll be below slot value, so expecting us to take some risks on day 2 of draft. 

He'll probably get slot.  Don't think there's much savings there.

[tttmikeb]

50 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Walkers agents arent pushovers either, and he could always move over to Boras himself. And if we are assuming that he is coming next season (2023) the difference to Free Agency is 4 years, obviously very valuable, but its not a 3 month rental vs a prospect 3 years away that you are planning the next decade around.

True.  Like you said earlier, having Soto for 3 playoff runs would be huge, and a big factor in anyone's interest in trading for him.

Edited July 18, 2022 by tttmikeb

[CWood21]

5 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Maaan I love the selection. I think he’s a guy who you can pencil in to the 2025 rotation and leave him there for 6+ years. 

If I had to rank them, he’s probably right above McGreevy in the top 10….

1. Jordan Walker 3B
2. Masyn Winn SS
3. Ivan Herrera C
4. Tink Hence RHP 
5. Matthew Libretore LHP
6. Gordon Graceffo RHP 
7. Zack Thompson LHP
8. Alec Burleson OF
9. Cooper Hjerpe LHP
10. Michael McGreevy RHP 

Or until his arm blows up.

Liberatore and Thompson will likely exhaust their rookie eligibility by the time the season ends.  List is probably pretty close to what it'd be.

1.) 3B Jordan Walker
2.) SS Masyn Winn
3.) C Ivan Herrera
4.) RHP Tink Hence
5.) RHP Gordon Graceffo
6.) LHP Cooper Hjerpe
7.) OF Alec Burleson
8.) RHP Michael McGreevy
9.) OF Joshua Baez
10.) LHP Brycen Mautz

[ttitansfan4life]

I’ll entertain the Soto fantasy for a second. Say we do blow up the whole minor league farm system for him, what do we do with pitching then? Soto helps the lineup sure but this team still isn’t a WS contender with this current rotation.

[StLunatic88]

5 hours ago, ttitansfan4life said:

I’ll entertain the Soto fantasy for a second. Say we do blow up the whole minor league farm system for him, what do we do with pitching then? Soto helps the lineup sure but this team still isn’t a WS contender with this current rotation.

First of all, you have to remember we are currently talking about 2+ years (3 playoff runs) of Soto, so he isnt coming for a Crash Davis and a bag of balls. And if we are working off something like I posted up earlier, thats not even close to "blowing up the whole minor league farm system". Its our Top prospect, which is going to be the starting point for any team making this offer, A highly touted SP (who we seem unwilling to commit to at this point) another young bat from the Majors, who (as well as he has fielded) is still pretty positionless on this team and then what could very well end up as a AAAA DH.

So your overall question of what do we do for pitching? Well we have 3 guys already locked in for the 2023 rotation (Mikolas, Matz, Hudson) And I would expect the young Lefty we don't send in this deal (Liberatore/Thompson) should be expected to be a starter in '23. After that, you have to sign atleast someone, might be Waino again or some deal vet (which there were some good ones this year, we just picked wrong). Maybe we actually commit to an Opener with Hicks for the year (would be a great move). Plus some other good young arms like Pallente plus others who I wouldnt expect to make the roster early in the year, but could all get some spot starts (McGreevy & Graceffo) are in the mix for your 6th/7th starter. Plus you have a few others that should be in that spot or better for 2024 (Hence & Hjerpe). And then ofcourse you have one more chance at the lottery ticket that is Alex Reyes who you try one last time, basically giving him the Wittgren slot from this year.

Again, just by going through some pitching prospects, the cupboard would not be bare. Not to mention, if we have Soto in the OF, we suddenly have another Bat to move out for a Pitcher (Carlson, O'Neill, Bader, Yepez) or one of them takes the place of Gorman, and he is an option to move out. We once again have a large number of position players who will need to see some ABs, and they arent going to all be in this organization. Dont let those walk out the door again because we dont commit to the ones we think are the best, and goodness please, dont just sit on our hands and force it to be Arenado taking it upon himself to walk away 

Edited July 19, 2022 by StLunatic88

[CWood21]

The Cardinals took EXACTLY one HS player in the draft.  And that was in the 20th round on a guy who is probably unsignable.  Randy Flores must have hated this year's HS class.

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

The Cardinals took EXACTLY one HS player in the draft.  And that was in the 20th round on a guy who is probably unsignable.  Randy Flores must have hated this year's HS class.

And potentially could be looking to quickly replenish the upper tiers of the Minors

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

And potentially could be looking to quickly replenish the upper tiers of the Minors

Maybe.  I don't see the Cardinals as badly needing arms in the upper levels.  They're pretty much on par for what they've done in the past in my opinion.  Cooper Hjerpe is probably going to be MLB-ready in ~2 years.  Probably run Mautz as a starter with the fallback of moving him into the bullpen if all else fails.  Pete Hansen might be a pop-up guy if the Cardinals can unlock some more velocity out of him.  They needed more catcher depth in the farm system, so Jimmy Crooks should get plenty of burn early on.

[kgarrett12486]

19 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

And if we are working off something like I posted up earlier, thats not even close to "blowing up the whole minor league farm system". Its our Top prospect, which is going to be the starting point for any team making this offer, A highly touted SP (who we seem unwilling to commit to at this point) another young bat from the Majors, who (as well as he has fielded) is still pretty positionless on this team and then what could very well end up as a AAAA DH.

That's the thing to me though, I don't think a deal of Jordan Walker + Mathew Liberatore + Nolan Gorman + Alec Burleson + Whatever low tier/low upside arms gets it done. That's for the exact reason that you eluded too, you're getting a bonefide game changing superstar in his prime years (23-26) with club control for 2.5 years.

I don't think Liberatore holds the weight. I've heard a lot of scouts view his upside as a #3-4 starter and that was before he came up. Plus, Nats would be in no rush to need an MLB ready arm, so I think they might look for the more upside arm. 

I think Nats are probably looking at package of:

1. Walker 2. Either Gorman/Wynn 3. Hence  4. whatever 6-10 range prospect they want

Soto is one of the few players I would actually give up Walker and his potential/control for, so i still think I would do that deal. 

The problem to me though is I've heard that Nats want to unload the Corbin deal as part of a package with Soto. While that would lower the prospect return, I'm not sure we could make the financials work. Your talking about Corbin at $24M + Soto going into arbitration next two years at likely at $19M-22M.

[ttitansfan4life]

NGL, this made me lol.

[ttitansfan4life]

🤣🤣🤣

[CWood21]

22 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

That's the thing to me though, I don't think a deal of Jordan Walker + Mathew Liberatore + Nolan Gorman + Alec Burleson + Whatever low tier/low upside arms gets it done. That's for the exact reason that you eluded too, you're getting a bonefide game changing superstar in his prime years (23-26) with club control for 2.5 years.

I don't think Liberatore holds the weight. I've heard a lot of scouts view his upside as a #3-4 starter and that was before he came up. Plus, Nats would be in no rush to need an MLB ready arm, so I think they might look for the more upside arm. 

I think Nats are probably looking at package of:

1. Walker 2. Either Gorman/Wynn 3. Hence  4. whatever 6-10 range prospect they want

Soto is one of the few players I would actually give up Walker and his potential/control for, so i still think I would do that deal. 

The problem to me though is I've heard that Nats want to unload the Corbin deal as part of a package with Soto. While that would lower the prospect return, I'm not sure we could make the financials work. Your talking about Corbin at $24M + Soto going into arbitration next two years at likely at $19M-22M.

Making a Juan Soto trade is damn near impossible because it either means depleting your farm system of all your top prospects, or pulling from your MLB roster to help supplement a trade.  I mean, players of Juan Soto's caliber don't come around very often either.

Right now, the Cardinals' OF consists of Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson.  One of those players goes to the bench if the Cardinals acquired Juan Soto, so likely one would need to be included in the trade to send back to Washington.  Dylan Carlson probably has the most value of the bunch with one more year of team control plus 3 years of arbitration.  Between Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader, I'd probably say that O'Neill has more trade value even if there's more variation from that.

The Nationals are almost assuredly going to want Jordan Walker in the deal, and as much as I overvalue prospects I think it's going to be really hard to give up Walker even if it is for Juan Soto.  Looking at the other major market teams (LAD, NYY, NYM, etc.), are they going to be willing to give up their top 25 prospects?  And willing to take back Patrick Corbin?  I just found that MLB trade simulator, and it says that a Carlson, Gorman, Liberatore, and DeJong for Soto and Burnes is a moderate overpay for the Cardinals.