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The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?


CWood21

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25 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Really hope we don't head into this season with the current BP construction. Gregerson as the CL has disaster written all over it...

Ill keep saying it, our best closer is currently stuck in our rotation. 

Michael Wacha has the makeup and stuff that belongs as a high leverage situation pitcher, not an innings eating starter. I really hope as they bring Reyes along this year, that is the switch that occurs once Reyes is ready to jump back into the Rotation. (doubtful thought)

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1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

Ill keep saying it, our best closer is currently stuck in our rotation. 

Michael Wacha has the makeup and stuff that belongs as a high leverage situation pitcher, not an innings eating starter. I really hope as they bring Reyes along this year, that is the switch that occurs once Reyes is ready to jump back into the Rotation. (doubtful thought)

No doubt. I think you and I have been leading this charge since the old forum days lol...

Problem is the FO doesn't share that view...

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4 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

No doubt. I think you and I have been leading this charge since the old forum days lol...

Problem is the FO doesn't share that view...

I'm not sure that they wouldn't like Wacha in the bullpen, I think it's just a luxury they don't feel they can afford.  I mean, if you remove Wacha from the rotation who do you replace him with?  We're not putting two "rookies" in the rotation, and given Waino's injuries last year can we really rely on him?  And then you start dabbling in FA, and you're getting into a whole different mess.

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1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said:

MM at the winter warm-up today basically gave us what the plan for the top 4 spots in the batting order will look like heading into 2018, I actually like it:

1. Dexter Fowler  2. Tommy Pham  3. Matt Carpenter  4. Marcell Ozuna

What's the O/U before Matheny realizes that batting Matt Carpenter in the 3-hole won't work?

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1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said:

MM at the winter warm-up today basically gave us what the plan for the top 4 spots in the batting order will look like heading into 2018, I actually like it:

1. Dexter Fowler  2. Tommy Pham  3. Matt Carpenter  4. Marcell Ozuna

I know Carp said all the right things (as he usually does) but we tried this last year, and we wasted like 2 months having Carp hit somewhere other that the Leadoff spot. I dont know what he thinks has changed at this point.

The correct order (with our current roster) is 1. Carpenter 2. Fowler 3. Pham 4. Ozuna

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3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not sure that they wouldn't like Wacha in the bullpen, I think it's just a luxury they don't feel they can afford.  I mean, if you remove Wacha from the rotation who do you replace him with?  We're not putting two "rookies" in the rotation, and given Waino's injuries last year can we really rely on him?  And then you start dabbling in FA, and you're getting into a whole different mess.

I think Mo (and myself as well) have much more faith in the young arms for the rotation than you do. 

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16 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not sure that they wouldn't like Wacha in the bullpen, I think it's just a luxury they don't feel they can afford.  I mean, if you remove Wacha from the rotation who do you replace him with?  We're not putting two "rookies" in the rotation, and given Waino's injuries last year can we really rely on him?  And then you start dabbling in FA, and you're getting into a whole different mess.

From the way the FO approaches and talks about him, IMO it's pretty evident they view him as a starter until he physically can't do it, or he implodes for good...

I think they're fine with the ebbs and flows he has as a starter...

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16 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I know Carp said all the right things (as he usually does) but we tried this last year, and we wasted like 2 months having Carp hit somewhere other that the Leadoff spot. I dont know what he thinks has changed at this point.

The correct order (with our current roster) is 1. Carpenter 2. Fowler 3. Pham 4. Ozuna

I actually think if we kept Carpenter in the lead-off spot, the optimal line-up would be:

1. Carpenter 2. Pham 3. Fowler 4. Ozuna

Honestly, Carpenter is such an enigma for this team...

On one hand:

-He's a high OBP guy, works counts better than anyone in the line-up and he has some legit pop, especially from the leadoff spot

On the Other hand:

-He's about the worst base-runner I can remember. He's slow and basically a station to station base runner, but yet finds ways to run into outs. He clogs up the base-paths at the top of the line-up...

-He has no true position defensively and is average at best at any of them.

Honestly, I don't know what to do with him. I see the both sides of the fence on hitting him #1 or #3...

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29 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Honestly, I don't know what to do with him. I see the both sides of the fence on hitting him #1 or #3...

When you jot out his attributes on paper, sure. But when you have half a decade of actuall on field results, there really is no argument to even have.

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1 minute ago, StLunatic88 said:

When you jot out his attributes on paper, sure. But when you have half a decade of actuall on field results, there really is no argument to even have.

If you're talking solely about his number and how he hits sure, but if you add in the base-running and outs he creates and the hindrance he puts on guys behind him (i.e. Tommy Pham and his base-running/stealing ability, or guys like Pham/Fowler/ Ozuna's ability to drive him in on a two out hit because he can't score from 2nd base) then it's a different story...

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45 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

If you're talking solely about his number and how he hits sure, but if you add in the base-running and outs he creates and the hindrance he puts on guys behind him (i.e. Tommy Pham and his base-running/stealing ability, or guys like Pham/Fowler/ Ozuna's ability to drive him in on a two out hit because he can't score from 2nd base) then it's a different story...

Id rather Carp be his best asset in the Leadoff spot (hitting .285+ with an on base around .400) and then work around his base running issues, than have him as a black hole in the lineup elsewhere (hitting just north of the Mendoza line). That seems like a completely obvious choice to make, and I have yet to see an argument made that even gets me thinking that he should hit elsewhere.

Just for reference, Fowler hit .205 out of the Leadoff spot last year, and has actually been much better in every other slot over the past few years.

So one guy hits his worst leading off, and the other hits his best . . . why is this even being discussed?

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1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I actually think if we kept Carpenter in the lead-off spot, the optimal line-up would be:

1. Carpenter 2. Pham 3. Fowler 4. Ozuna

First of all, we are still one Bat short in this lineup in order to reach its optimum construction.

But with the hitters we do have (and the way that Matheny refuses to adapt from the old school lineup ideals) Tommy Pham should be hitting 3rd. In the newer (and better IMO) lineup strategy, then yes Pham should be Hitting 2nd.

 

Desired lineup with another Bat;

  1. Matt Carpenter
  2. Thommy Pham
  3. Donaldson/Hosmer/Moustakas
  4. Marcell Ozuna
  5. Dexter Fowler
  6. Yadier Molina
  7. Paul DeJong
  8. Kolten Wong
  9. Pitcher

I think Fowler is best suited to be sandwiched between the Power of Ozuna and the contact of Yadi.

And honestly, If we cant pick up another bat, and DeJong keeps up last years output, I wouldn really like to see him and Pham in some 2/3 combination in the lineup. 

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2 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

From the way the FO approaches and talks about him, IMO it's pretty evident they view him as a starter until he physically can't do it, or he implodes for good...

I think they're fine with the ebbs and flows he has as a starter...

I mean, I think that's the case with MOST teams.  You're a starter until you prove you can't.  Essentially made the big league roster a year after being drafted, threw 107 big league innings in 2014.  Backed that up with 181 innings in 2015, which in hindsight was probably a bit irresponsible.  Probably shouldn't have jumped his innings that much, and probably attributed to his injury-plagued 2016.  In 2017, they coddled him with 165 innings coming off his injury the year before.  He was still good for the 21st highest WAR, and the only SP with less innings and a higher WAR was Michael Fulmer.  You're not taking that production out of the rotation unless you have to IMO.  Like you said, they're willing to deal with those ebbs and flows.

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