Fantasy Football General Discussion 2023

[Tank4Drake]

20 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Will absolutely not be going QB high ever again. I too always waited but this year said F it. Big mistake, agreed.

Tua was the best pick this year at QB. 8th Round and has been QB5. Possibly QB2 if you have set your league up to get bonus points for long passes. 

You also had guys like Love, Stroud, Howell go undrafted who are all Top 12 QB’s in fantasy. I think Love is like QB13 now, but he was like QB9 for a while. This happens every year. Heck I drafted Lawrence in the 7th and regret it. I could have drafted Howell in the 13th and picked up Stroud off waivers and rotate the two.

QB is just not that important in fantasy because the difference in scores is not that massive compared to RB/WR/TE.  

Edited November 9, 2023 by Tank4Drake

[Sllim Pickens]

17 hours ago, Tank4Drake said:

Tua was the best pick this year at QB. 8th Round and has been QB5. Possibly QB2 if you have set your league up to get bonus points for long passes. 

You also had guys like Love, Stroud, Howell go undrafted who are all Top 12 QB’s in fantasy. I think Love is like QB13 now, but he was like QB9 for a while. This happens every year. Heck I drafted Lawrence in the 7th and regret it. I could have drafted Howell in the 13th and picked up Stroud off waivers and rotate the two.

QB is just not that important in fantasy because the difference in scores is not that massive compared to RB/WR/TE.  

You could say the same thing about Sam Laporta and Cole Kmet being TE 4 and 5 but being drafted in round 10 or later.  Or at WR you have Puka who was likely undrafted being WR5, Thielen with an ADP of 130 as WR 8, Nico Collins with an ADP of 162 and being WR 16, or Shaheed being ADP 230 and being WR 13. Even with RB Raheem Mostert, Zack Moss, Alvin Kamara, D'Andre Swift, Gus Edwards and Kyren Williams all having low ADPs and being top 10-12 RBs.  

When looking at 7th/8th round QBs vs 7th/8th round WR/RB/TE though, there is a difference. Tua and Trevor Lawrence's ADP was right by Christian Watson, Cam Akers, James Cook, Dalvin Cook, James Connor, Drake London, Alex Mattison, Darren Waller, JK Dobbins, Javionte Williams etc.  I would rather have Tua or Lawrence ahead of all of those guys.  

Also, guys like Stroud and Howell have had a couple of big weeks but spend a lot of weeks low.  So just because they are high in the average, doesn't mean they help you win week to week.  Lawrence has been right around 20 points each week in my super flex league.  Stroud has 3 weeks above 20 with one 30+ and then a bunch at 10-12.  Howell has been a little more consistent but has one week with less than 1 point and another 2 under 10.  Tua was under drafted, and a lot of that was due to injury concerns, but even he has some weeks he struggles. Having consistency at QB is more helpful than a big game here and there, especially if you are trying to play matchups.  Not many people would have played Stroud last week if playing matchups because he had struggled the week before against a meh defense and you would miss out on his big game. 

Moral of the story is, fantasy is won on the waiver wire and late round picks.  If you hit on them, and get solid production out of early picks, you are good.  If you drafted one of those guys around that ADP that flopped, your team is not doing well.  So QB is still important, you just have to hit on them. Similarly with all positions though, hitting on them or getting them off the waiver wire early is important. 

[Tank4Drake]

4 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

You could say the same thing about Sam Laporta and Cole Kmet being TE 4 and 5 but being drafted in round 10 or later.  Or at WR you have Puka who was likely undrafted being WR5, Thielen with an ADP of 130 as WR 8, Nico Collins with an ADP of 162 and being WR 16, or Shaheed being ADP 230 and being WR 13. Even with RB Raheem Mostert, Zack Moss, Alvin Kamara, D'Andre Swift, Gus Edwards and Kyren Williams all having low ADPs and being top 10-12 RBs.  

When looking at 7th/8th round QBs vs 7th/8th round WR/RB/TE though, there is a difference. Tua and Trevor Lawrence's ADP was right by Christian Watson, Cam Akers, James Cook, Dalvin Cook, James Connor, Drake London, Alex Mattison, Darren Waller, JK Dobbins, Javionte Williams etc.  I would rather have Tua or Lawrence ahead of all of those guys.  

Also, guys like Stroud and Howell have had a couple of big weeks but spend a lot of weeks low.  So just because they are high in the average, doesn't mean they help you win week to week.  Lawrence has been right around 20 points each week in my super flex league.  Stroud has 3 weeks above 20 with one 30+ and then a bunch at 10-12.  Howell has been a little more consistent but has one week with less than 1 point and another 2 under 10.  Tua was under drafted, and a lot of that was due to injury concerns, but even he has some weeks he struggles. Having consistency at QB is more helpful than a big game here and there, especially if you are trying to play matchups.  Not many people would have played Stroud last week if playing matchups because he had struggled the week before against a meh defense and you would miss out on his big game. 

Moral of the story is, fantasy is won on the waiver wire and late round picks.  If you hit on them, and get solid production out of early picks, you are good.  If you drafted one of those guys around that ADP that flopped, your team is not doing well.  So QB is still important, you just have to hit on them. Similarly with all positions though, hitting on them or getting them off the waiver wire early is important. 

Actually for WR, guys like St Brown and Puka being free is a rarity. Easier to load WR first and find all your other positions later. Outside of CMC/Henry all the RBs in the 1st/2nd have been injured this year and that’s a common occurrence. Going WR/WR had increased your advance rate by 70% last year and I expect that not to change this year. I went Chase/Lamb this year.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Tank4Drake

[Sllim Pickens]

7 minutes ago, Tank4Drake said:

Actually for WR, guys like St Brown and Puka being free is a rarity. Easier to load WR first and find all your other positions later. Outside of CMC/Henry all the RBs in the 1st/2nd have been injured this year and that’s a common occurrence. Going WR/WR had increased your advance rate by 70% last year and I expect that not to change this year. I went Chase/Lamb this year.

When you are talking the first couple of rounds, yes those top guys usually end up at the top.  But to be fair Allen and Mahomes do as well and are more consistent so I see why they are drafted there.  

But when you mean in those mid rounds, its a crap shoot for all positions.  There are guys who outperform their draft spot every year and plenty that do not.  There always are RBs and WR that are drafted late that make the top 20/30 at their positions.  You can make that claim about QB all you want but two years ago if you go into the season planning on Trey Lance and Zach Wilson leading your team, you were hurting.  Or if you tried that method this year but went with Bryce Young instead of Stroud and Kenny Pickett instead of Howell.   Its all about getting lucky and drafting guys you think out perform their draft spot at any position.  But having a top QB is still important.  

[adamq]

Curtis Samuel, nico Collins types are always there you just have to know what to look for and get lucky

[NYRaider]

I love Jaylen Warren, Dak Prescott, and Sam Howell. Thank you god

[adamq]

19 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I love Jaylen Warren, Dak Prescott, and Sam Howell. Thank you god

Keenan Allen and Mike Evans for me... I wasn't afraid of the age and it has paid off in spades all year long

[NYRaider]

50 minutes ago, adamq said:

Keenan Allen and Mike Evans for me... I wasn't afraid of the age and it has paid off in spades all year long

I have Mike Evans on my main team as well, wish I would've taken Keenan too.

[Tank4Drake]

I won this week and 6-4 after starting 0-3 but have a QB issue. Only QB is Lawrence and he’s terrible. I did pick up Russ Wilson. Might stash ARod on the IR as well. What the **** is wrong with Lawrence?

[Humble_Beast]

On 11/9/2023 at 2:20 PM, RaidersAreOne said:

Will absolutely not be going QB high ever again. I too always waited but this year said F it. Big mistake, agreed.

I did the same with Justin Fields and Burrow. Burned me 

[SalvadorsDeli]

The biggest development in the league this year is the extent to which defenses caught up to and have finally pushed back on the offensive revolution. It's meant all fantasy positions are scoring less but the impact appears more pronounced with QB's. 

The important thing is always going where the value is. QB's - and mobile QB's in particular - became overvalued because guys like Lamar, Hurts, Allen, and even Fields for those 6 weeks last year at times felt like cheat codes, and with defenses catching up this year in a big way, there was a partial popping of that bubble. 

My guess is that with an offseason to adjust/break down film, offenses will catch up next year - the rules are still built around giving them the advantage and they will regain it. If people take this year to wait in drafting QB's and the top guys drop a round or two ADP-wise, then we could very well end up in a position where going after one of the top QB's becomes the value play again. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by SalvadorsDeli

[RaidersAreOne]

Posted my CMC for Achane question in another thread but wanted to pose this question more generally. 

In a dynasty league, who are the top RBs going forward?

[Tank4Drake]

7 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Posted my CMC for Achane question in another thread but wanted to pose this question more generally. 

In a dynasty league, who are the top RBs going forward?

Dynasty? Breece Hall by far. I think he’ll post a Top 3 finish every year for the next 5 seasons barring injury. But the time to buy Breece was the past two seasons, now he will be too expensive. 

Have to sell CMC after this season. Or during the season if you’re losing. He’ll be 28 next year. Just like I said everyone should be selling Eckeler and Henry going into this year. 28 is old as hell for a RB. 28 for a RB is like 33 for a WR and 45 for a QB. 

Achane is a good buy but he seems like a boom/bust RB due to his size. I think Charbonnet is a good buy, he has crazy potential if the Seahawks ever get bored of Walker. Loved Charb as a prospect, my favorite back of the draft, even more than Bijan. 

Sell Barkley, total fade for 2024 and beyond. 

Another nice pick up could be Spears. Another boom/bust guy like Achane due to size but I doubt Henry will be on the team next season and Spears has showed really nice flashes. 

Sorry, kind of all over the place with this post and typing whatever comes to my mind. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Tank4Drake

[RaidersAreOne]

1 minute ago, Tank4Drake said:

Dynasty? Breece Hall by far. I think he’ll post a Top 3 finish every year for the next 5 seasons barring injury. But the time to buy Breece was the past two seasons, now he will be too expensive. 

Have to sell CMC after this season. Or during the season if you’re losing. He’ll be 28 next year. Just like I said everyone should be selling Eckeler and Henry going into this year. 28 is old as hell for a RB. 28 for a RB is like 33 for a WR and 45 for a QB. 

Achane is a good buy but he seems like a boom/bust RB due to his size. I think Charbonnet is a good buy, he has crazy potential if the Seahawks ever get bored of Walker. Loved Charb as a prospect, my favorite back of the draft, even more than Bijan. 

Sell Barkley, total fade for 2024 and beyond. 

Another nice pick up could be Spears. Another boom/bust guy like Achane due to size but I doubt Henry will be on the team next season and Spears has showed really nice flashes. 

Sorry, kind of all over the place with this post and typing whatever comes yo my mind. 

Well good thing I just sold CMC, aquired Achane, and have Charb and Spears on my bench. 😆

[Tank4Drake]

6-1 since my 0-3 start. 6-4. 12 Team Half PPR

QB Russell Wilson (just picked him up)

RB Breece Hall

RB David Montgomery

WR JaMarr Chase

WR CeeDee Lamb

WR Diontae Johnson

TE Mark Andrews

Flex Keaton Mitchell

K Who cares

DEF Houston (change every week or two)

BN QB Trevor Lawrence (hate him)

BN RB Zach Charbonnet

BN RB Ty Chandler

BN WR Drake London

BN WR Christian Watson (droppable soon, holding for at least two more weeks)

BN WR Calvin Ridley (hate him)

IR RB Khalil Herbert

IR QB Aaron Rodgers

Next four games I face the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 6th seeds. I am the 5th seed currently. Tough schedule…. 6 Team Playoff. 3-1 will get me in. 2-2 might get me in.