2023 Packers Big Board #9

[Scoremore]

43 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

Another position where we have historically done well with players in later rounds, specifically round 4. 

I'm always the optimist when it comes to our 2nd year players, so I know that is a flaw sometimes. I look at what we have with guys like Tom, Walker, Rhyan and C. Jones potentially and don't see T as a position of need. Assume Nijman is coming back we have three solid tackles in Bak, Nijman and Tom. I'm good with a guy like Matthew Bergeron in round 3, if we can get near the top of round 3. He'd be a guy who should be able to play and be effective in year 2. Could develop into a hell of a player. 

 

Gotta look towards the future.  This might be Bak's last year in GB.  Grabbing a franchise LT at #15 would make a lot of sense.  Broderick Jones is the man.  He will probably be the first OT off the board tho.  I'd go bigs in Rd 1.  If none fall then trade back be looking at the TE's to target late 1st round.  Some intriguing WR's could be had in the middle rounds.  Still have a gaping hole at S.  Really sucks being so cash strapped wouldn't mind brining back Amos to shore up the back end.  

[beekay414]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Says "He was a borderline non-factor in 10 of 14 games last year. "

Accuses others of using selective stats lol. He's just making up his own definition of non factor.

Lol c'mon. Man said he showed up in big games. Man didn't do **** vs Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor or Georgia. It's as selective as it gets. He had 60 catches for 1069 yards and 6 touchdowns. He was far from dominant. He's a pop up prospect with tons of risk attached. Pretending he's not is naive as ****. Ignoring that I've used his entire stats rather than saying "herr derr he played well in big games" and saying I'm the selective one is comedy of the highest order. 

Edited April 2, 2023 by beekay414

[Packerraymond]

28 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Lol c'mon. Man said he showed up in big games. Man didn't do **** vs Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor or Georgia. It's as selective as it gets. He had 60 catches for 1069 yards and 6 touchdowns. He was far from dominant. He's a pop up prospect with tons of risk attached. Pretending he's not is naive as ****. Ignoring that I've used his entire stats rather than saying "herr derr he played well in big games" and saying I'm the selective one is comedy of the highest order. 

He was top 5 in just about every early 2023 draft watchlist for WR, he's certainly not a pop up prospect. He was plenty productive and he's probably the rarest combination of missed tackle % to average depth of target we've ever seen since tracking advanced metrics like that. 9.60 RAS, 21 years old. I'm just failing to see where this guy doesn't belong in the middle of round 1? I'd put Nolan Smith above him from the list above, but he went right about where he should IMO.

[beekay414]

2 hours ago, MantyWrestler said:

Why were those stats above “selective” and I assume you then mean faulty?  They were against the best teams. How many snaps did he play in the other games or times did they throw to him in those other games? Maybe they just didn’t use him as much since they were killing those other teams.

Also, percentage of time he drops a ball is selective?

What stats should we be using?

You're right, wrong wording on my part. We can use Michigan, Kansas State (gm2), Kansas and Oklahoma State as massive pluses for QJ (though Kansas had a piss poor defense so I put much less stock in that line than the others). Then we counter with Georgia (1 catch, 3 yards - lost by a metric **** ton), Baylor (4, 48 - won by 1), Texas (3/66/1 - won by 7) and Oklahoma (4/41 - tho they won big) as the other "big" game numbers. So he's at a 50/50 shot of being a star in big games. The other 6 games, he was basically what his averages were (4 catches for 76 yards) or under.

My entire point about Johnston hasn't been his talent, I like him ffs. It's just that he's not going to be high on our board for #15 because there's entirely too much risk attached to him to be taken that high for a team that hasn't selected a WR in the first round in 20+ years. JSN doesn't come with the same risk and Ohio State's last two WRs that got put in the NFL under Ryan Day just both posted 1000 yard rookie seasons. So JSN being high makes sense for us. He fits a role we need and he comes from a great system. 

[beekay414]

25 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

He was top 5 in just about every early 2023 draft watchlist for WR, he's certainly not a pop up prospect. He was plenty productive and he's probably the rarest combination of missed tackle % to average depth of target we've ever seen since tracking advanced metrics like that. 9.60 RAS, 21 years old. I'm just failing to see where this guy doesn't belong in the middle of round 1? I'd put Nolan Smith above him from the list above, but he went right about where he should IMO.

This isn't a consensus draft big board, this is a Packers based BB. We haven't taken a WR in the first round in 20+ years but someone with 1 year of production and tested well is the guy that's going to break that trend? Let's compare him to Kevin White real quick, who also had one year of WR1 production in college and tested off the charts while coming from a system that rarely translates to NFL WR success.

Kevin White
2013: 35 catches, 507 yards, 5 TD
2014: 109 catches, 1447 yards, 10 TD
6'2" 215
9.76 RAS

Quentin Johnston
2021: 33 catches, 634 yards, 6 TD
2022: 60 catches, 1069 yards, 6 TD
6'3" 208
9.60 RAS

There's just entirely too much risk attached to Johnston for him to be on our board that highly. He's not going to be over the EDGEs, DBs or tackles. 

Edited April 2, 2023 by beekay414

[Packerraymond]

5 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

This isn't a consensus draft big board, this is a Packers based BB. We haven't taken a WR in the first round in 20+ years but someone with 1 year of production and tested well is the guy that's going to break that trend? Let's compare him to Kevin White real quick, who also had one year of WR1 production in college and tested off the charts while coming from a system that rarely translates to NFL WR success.

Kevin White
2013: 35 catches, 507 yards, 5 TD
2014: 109 catches, 1447 yards, 10 TD
6'2" 190
9.76 RAS

Quentin Johnston
2021: 33 catches, 634 yards, 6 TD
2022: 60 catches, 1069 yards, 6 TD
6'4" 193
9.60 RAS

There's just entirely too much risk attached to Johnston for him to be on our board that highly. He's not going to be over the EDGEs, DBs or tackles. 

DJ Moore 

2016: 41 catches, 637 yards, 6 TD

2017: 80 catches, 1033 yards, 8 TD

6'0 210

9.65 RAS

The pick a random player game is fun. Proves nothing.

Guess MGIII and Jonathan Taylor shouldn't have been highly drafted running backs because of the struggles of Ron Dayne, Brian Calhoun and Montee Ball.

It's the player you evaluate, not the school. Johnston is rare, if you don't see what about him is unique, you haven't watched him.

 

[beekay414]

9 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

DJ Moore 

2016: 41 catches, 637 yards, 6 TD

2017: 80 catches, 1033 yards, 8 TD

6'0 210

9.65 RAS

The pick a random player game is fun. Proves nothing.

Guess MGIII and Jonathan Taylor shouldn't have been highly drafted running backs because of the struggles of Ron Dayne, Brian Calhoun and Montee Ball.

It's the player you evaluate, not the school. Johnston is rare, if you don't see what about him is unique, you haven't watched him.

DJ Moore a top 15 pick? DJ Moore come from a the same system as White and Johnston? DJ Moore the same size and profile as White and Johnston? I didn't pick a random ******* player here. I picked someone that comes from the same system, has the same profile and was an early pick in his respective draft. Kevin White didn't go to TCU so I'm not evaluating the school lmao. I've watched Quentin Johnston. I like Quentin Johnston. He just won't be higher on our board than the EDGEs, OTs and DBs which is what I've said the entire time but you ignore it as if I'm just out here slandering Johnston lol. Biased much?

And LOL at the Badgers RB comparison. The only first round picks of that list both weren't worth their draft slots in the end. 

Edited April 2, 2023 by beekay414

[fattlipp]

Bijan getting less respect than Micah Parsons did.

Both top 3 talents in a draft, screw position.

Edited April 2, 2023 by fattlipp

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, fattlipp said:

Bijan getting less respect than Micah Parsons did.

Both top 3 talents in a draft, screw position.

Bet Giants are glad they took Barkley over Josh Allen.

When RBs hit, they're still a miss if you take them high.

[HokieHigh]

7 hours ago, Old Guy said:

Another position where we have historically done well with players in later rounds, specifically round 4. 

I'm always the optimist when it comes to our 2nd year players, so I know that is a flaw sometimes. I look at what we have with guys like Tom, Walker, Rhyan and C. Jones potentially and don't see T as a position of need. Assume Nijman is coming back we have three solid tackles in Bak, Nijman and Tom. I'm good with a guy like Matthew Bergeron in round 3, if we can get near the top of round 3. He'd be a guy who should be able to play and be effective in year 2. Could develop into a hell of a player. 

 

ya i like nijman but am fine with setting up a plan to move on from him after this year in case he doesn't want to be in gb

[HokieHigh]

6 hours ago, beekay414 said:

Lol c'mon. Man said he showed up in big games. Man didn't do **** vs Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor or Georgia. It's as selective as it gets. He had 60 catches for 1069 yards and 6 touchdowns. He was far from dominant. He's a pop up prospect with tons of risk attached. Pretending he's not is naive as ****. Ignoring that I've used his entire stats rather than saying "herr derr he played well in big games" and saying I'm the selective one is comedy of the highest order. 

oklahoma was a blow out. didn't need him.

georgia was obviously a whole-team mismatch.

 

 

66 yards and a TD vs texas in a 17-10 game - he was literally the margin of victory.

at baylor, tcu rushed the ball 27 times. he had the second most catches on the team. go to minute 2:10 here. he is a legit deep threat with size and speed that commands the defenses attention. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0ewVjuZD70

 

 

[R T]

On 4/1/2023 at 6:39 PM, beekay414 said:

Just don't see QJ being high on our board at 15. We can find raw RAS specimens later in the draft. Either take the day 1 stud or take the more valuable position. I like Johnston but not for us.

Kind of where I'm at, not for the Packers at 15 anyways. 

If we put Quentin Johnston in a pool of what I would call similar WR's from the last several years I think we find an idea where he is drafted. Take Treylon Burks (18), Christian Watson (34), George Pickens (52), Rashod Bateman (27), Tee Higgins (33), Michael Pittman Jr. (34), Chase Claypool (49), N'Keal Henry (32), DK Metcalf (64) and we start to shine a light on the range he'll probably be drafted. 

Now if someone thinks he is on par with Ja'Marr Chase than the conversation changes, but for me he goes late first to early second. 15th just seems to early IMO. 

[HokieHigh]

1 minute ago, R T said:

Kind of where I'm at, not for the Packers at 15 anyways. 

If we put Quentin Johnston in a pool of what I would call similar WR's from the last several years I think we find an idea where he is drafted. Take Treylon Burks (18), Christian Watson (34), George Pickens (52), Rashod Bateman (27), Tee Higgins (33), Michael Pittman Jr. (34), Chase Claypool (49), N'Keal Henry (32), DK Metcalf (64) and we start to shine a light on the range he'll probably be drafted. 

Now if someone thinks he is on par with Ja'Marr Chase than the conversation changes, but for me he goes late first to early second. 15th just seems to early IMO. 

chase and waddle went 5 and 6 overalll. 5/6 are worth 30% more than pick 15 so i don't think qj has to be in that tier to be good value at 15. devonta smith and kadarius tony went 10 and 20 that year.

 

marquise brown (25) in 2019.

 

henry ruggs seems like the right value comp to me (#12). jeudy (15) ceedee lamb (17) jefferson (22) that year. 

 

drake landon (8) last year before burks (18). 

 

 

[MantyWrestler]

5 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Bet Giants are glad they took Barkley over Josh Allen.

When RBs hit, they're still a miss if you take them high.

That’s so easy to say after the fact. Bet they’re glad they didn’t take Rosen or Darnold though. 

Edited April 3, 2023 by MantyWrestler

[incognito_man]

10 minutes ago, MantyWrestler said:

That’s so easy to say after the fact. Bet they’re glad they didn’t take Rosen or Darnold though. 

You raise a good point that a front office that drafts Barkley there probably also has Rosen and Darnold above Allen.