2018 Draft Prospects

[G08]

12 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

What do you do?

Round 1

1[1] Cleveland Browns: QB Sam Darnold [USC]
1[2] NY Giants: DE Bradley Chubb [North Carolina St]
1[3] NY Jets [Ind]: QB Josh Allen [Wyoming]
1[4] Cleveland Browns [Hou]: RB Saquan Barkley [Penn St]
1[5] Denver Broncos: QB Josh Rosen [UCLA]
1[6] Indianapolis Colts [NYJ]: OG Quenton Nelson [Notre Dame]
1[7] Buffalo Bills [TB]: QB Baker Mayfield [OU]

Stick at #8 and draft Tremaine Edmunds. Stick him next to Danny Trevathan for 2 seasons before he takes his gig.

[Sugashane]

14 minutes ago, G08 said:

Adren Key 4.85 dash. Woof.

 

Wow, I was thinking he would hit about a 4.65.

 

He had to know his time would be bad, why run it if you know it is going to be that poor? Like Michael Bush during the pro combine. Makes no sense.

[TankWilliams]

12 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

What do you do?

Round 1

1[1] Cleveland Browns: QB Sam Darnold [USC]
1[2] NY Giants: DE Bradley Chubb [North Carolina St]
1[3] NY Jets [Ind]: QB Josh Allen [Wyoming]
1[4] Cleveland Browns [Hou]: RB Saquan Barkley [Penn St]
1[5] Denver Broncos: QB Josh Rosen [UCLA]
1[6] Indianapolis Colts [NYJ]: OG Quenton Nelson [Notre Dame]
1[7] Buffalo Bills [TB]: QB Baker Mayfield [OU]

I don't really see the bills moving up for a QB, at least not unless they move into the top 4.  After the Bronco's, the first team that will likely need a QB would be Miami at 11.  I don't think they would move up that far unless they were trying for Darnold, Rosen, or Allen.  

[DABEARSLCF04]

20 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

What do you do?

Round 1

1[1] Cleveland Browns: QB Sam Darnold [USC]
1[2] NY Giants: DE Bradley Chubb [North Carolina St]
1[3] NY Jets [Ind]: QB Josh Allen [Wyoming]
1[4] Cleveland Browns [Hou]: RB Saquan Barkley [Penn St]
1[5] Denver Broncos: QB Josh Rosen [UCLA]
1[6] Indianapolis Colts [NYJ]: OG Quenton Nelson [Notre Dame]
1[7] Buffalo Bills [TB]: QB Baker Mayfield [OU]

Ward

[dll2000]

17 hours ago, G08 said:

Yes and no, to me it's because none of these dudes jumps out at me as a home run pick -- they all have flaws and I can make an argument for/against each one of them. Maybe the best thing for us is to trade back to 11 or 12 if we have the option. Pick up a 3rd round pick in the process and let the draft come to us.

Give up pick #115 and trade down to #11, draft Harold Landry and acquire pick #73. I'd be thrilled!

I have a feeling that Landry might end up being the steal of this draft if he goes to the right team. 16.5 sacks in a season is a lot and against good competition.  He is really quick off ball when healthy.  I would include Bears in the right team category.  I would love to see Landry on this team.  I think he is a great fit.  I also think he is worth the 8th pick, but I don't think you need the 8th pick to get him.  Makes it tough to take him there with guys that will be available there.  Hence your trade down scenario.  Easy said than done though.  

Also, makes it tough that guys like Nelson and Edmunds have HOF ceilings.  Edmunds does have some bust potential and may or even probably will not be that good in his rookie year.  (Bears fans will love that).   Still tough to pass on guys with that kind of talent at their position.   Edmunds simply has more physical talent than any ILB prospect ever.  That is a heck of a statement, but its true.  Now does he have it between the ears?  Remains to be seen.    

Nelson, while great, I think has weaker lateral movement than people think.   Nobody is talking about that.   Its just pencil this guy into the HOF.   I think that is what may keep him from being this generational blocker that he is being hyped in to.   I think many media folks bandwagon jump and don't watch any tape at all.   Nelson, again great, has trouble getting to his spot on pulls and reach blocks.  Part of that is I think he pulls a bit too deep and isn't fast enough to make up for it.  That is fixable, part of it is he just isn't that fast in short areas.  At NFL level he may flat miss some people on those plays.  If you watch Whitehair, for example, he can get to a second level LB one gap over.   I don't think Nelson is going to be able to do that.  To be fair, few can, that is really impressive, really impressive.  Whitehair, while not as strong as Nelson and probably not as good a pass blocker, is much quicker/faster to his mark on a downfield block or pull and at NFL level to boot.  Nelson strength is he is crazy strong and a great, a super great, one on one pass blocker.  Two of the best qualities you want in a guard for sure.   Part of what makes Nelson so great at pass blocking is he knows how to use his hands.  He excels at inside hand fighting which is a skill.  He also anchors himself and can reset into an anchor exceptionally well.  And he is super strong which helps with that.  

I think you can put Derwin James in that high ceiling category too.  Amos is good and it would be sad for him as he really fought to earn his spot, but Jackson and a healthy James would be a heck of safety combo for years to come.  Could develop into best in the league by year two or three.   James has to stay healthy though.  James would definitely be an intriguing pick and one that is not oft discussed here.   I would not be least bit surprised if a team selects James ahead of Fitzpatrick, the more hyped player.

I think you can pass on Ward because you can get a talented corner later and you already invested a lot in the position in FA.   Speaking of which, I would love for Bears to get Isaiah Oliver out of Colorado.  Another guy nobody is talking much about.  He is big with very long arms.  Compares favorably with Richard Sherman coming out of college.  I would not be surprised if some team likes him enough to take him in the first or early second.  Maybe Seattle.  Fits their preferred corner profile to a tee.  If he falls I would love for Bears to trade around and snag him at a good value.    

At some point you are going to have to draft and develop a decent OT.   As bad as injuries have been every where else they have been incredibly lucky at OT and skated with no depth at the position.  I think if Orlando Brown is still sitting there in 3rd you have to trade up and get him if you haven't picked up a 3rd in a trade down.  Yeah, Brown can bust, but he is worth the risk in the 3rd.  Guy was dominant in college and he is huge.  He dominated GA which may have had best front 7 in football.  

 

 

 

[beardown3231]

31 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

What do you do?

Round 1

1[1] Cleveland Browns: QB Sam Darnold [USC]
1[2] NY Giants: DE Bradley Chubb [North Carolina St]
1[3] NY Jets [Ind]: QB Josh Allen [Wyoming]
1[4] Cleveland Browns [Hou]: RB Saquan Barkley [Penn St]
1[5] Denver Broncos: QB Josh Rosen [UCLA]
1[6] Indianapolis Colts [NYJ]: OG Quenton Nelson [Notre Dame]
1[7] Buffalo Bills [TB]: QB Baker Mayfield [OU]

Draft Edmunds or Ward or trade down to 11 or 15 and take Davenport.

 

33 minutes ago, G08 said:

Adren Key 4.85 dash. Woof.

I still take my chances at 39. He plays at 4.55.

Edited April 4, 2018 by beardown3231

[G08]

22 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I have a feeling that Landry might end up being the steal of this draft if he goes to the right team. 16.5 sacks in a season is a lot and against good competition.  He is really quick off ball when healthy.  I would include Bears in the right team category.  I would love to see Landry on this team.  I think he is a great fit.  I also think he is worth the 8th pick, but I don't think you need the 8th pick to get him.  Makes it tough to take him there with guys that will be available there.  Hence your trade down scenario.  Easy said than done though.  

Elaborate on that. There are games where I watch him and think to myself wow, this kid would be outstanding as a pass rushing specialist for us and really help us get off the field on 3rd downs. As he gets stronger I think he could be a 3 down OLB for us.

Other games I watch him and I think he is weak and afraid of getting downhill when attacking RBs. Those games as well as the ones where he only has success as a speed rusher/using his bend make me think he's another Dee Ford.

I don't love him at 8... I love him at 11 or 12 with an extra 3rd round pick in my pocket.

[dll2000]

10 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

 

I still take my chances at 39. He plays at 4.55.

Re: Key

Even LSU fans don't like that guy.   No way I see that Pace drafts a known head case in first two rounds.  Plus, he tested bad?  No chance.   Sorry.

I doubt Key is even on the Bears board.  I can see that they would add him and take him in the 5th on a flyer because of his physical talent and positional value, but someone else will  likely roll the dice long before then.

Suggs ran a 4.8, but Suggs absolutely dominated college football.  Key didn't.  Haven't watched him, but note says 7 of his sacks were unblocked and uncontested.  So stats he has are padded.

 

 

 

 

 

[topwop1]

37 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

I don't really see the bills moving up for a QB, at least not unless they move into the top 4.  After the Bronco's, the first team that will likely need a QB would be Miami at 11.  I don't think they would move up that far unless they were trying for Darnold, Rosen, or Allen.  

FWIW LaCanfora is now saying that the Cooks trade by NE was a move made to help them move up to draft a QB to succeed Brady when he retires.  It may be far fetched but it's not entirely crazy to think Belichick would try something like this to jump both division rivals in the Bills and Dolphins in getting their respective QBs.

[dll2000]

20 minutes ago, G08 said:

Elaborate on that. There are games where I watch him and think to myself wow, this kid would be outstanding as a pass rushing specialist for us and really help us get off the field on 3rd downs. As he gets stronger I think he could be a 3 down OLB for us.

Other games I watch him and I think he is weak and afraid of getting downhill when attacking RBs. Those games as well as the ones where he only has success as a speed rusher/using his bend make me think he's another Dee Ford.

I don't love him at 8... I love him at 11 or 12 with an extra 3rd round pick in my pocket.

Look how ND respected his pass rush abilities and rightfully so, briefly:

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/10/05/harold-landry-vs-notre-dame2017/

Pass play 1:  All american potential first round OT cuts him and RB is there backing him up.

PP 2 at :24 - They roll away from him.

PP 3 at :52 - One on One block he beats easy and gets QB pressure.

PP 4 at 1:20 - AA OT and G, both first round picks, plus RB are tasked with blocking him.  That is respect.

You can see right away ND game planned for Beasley Landry.

When Beasley played for Clemson you had to worry about 3 or 4 more All americans up front that can kill you.  When you played BC you had to stop Landry.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 4, 2018 by dll2000
typo

[51to54]

19 minutes ago, G08 said:

I don't love him at 8... I love him at 11 or 12 with an extra 3rd round pick in my pocket.

Ignoring the gist of your post, the addition of a third round pick, I've never been a big fan of letting a guy's estimated draft slot determine how tricky a GM should get when drafting. I think it's often times a case of being penny wise and pound foolish.

If Pace thinks Landry is his Edge Rusher and Landry is estimated to be a 20-25 slot pick, you still pick Landry at 8. No brainer. If a GM is worried about how it looks if he "overdrafts" a guy who fails, then the GM A) doesn't have the cajones to be a GM and B) should spend more time on evaluating talent and less time on evaluating twitter's opinion of his pick.

The too tricky part comes into play if Pace trades down to 16-18 and adds a third round pick. Brilliant. Can still get Landry a couple of picks ahead of the other GM's relying on his estimated slot and gets a free third rounder to boot. Then someone else picks Landry with 11-14. Sure, you still get to draft a first rounder a couple of picks later, but it's not the guy you wanted.

Having said that, only dropping from 8 to 11 or 12 would likely still get your Landry, but if Landry's on the board at 8 he's a sure thing drafting him at 8. Not a sure thing from 9 and later.

I'm starting to lean toward Landry as he has some great physical ability for a premier position speed pass rusher and shows great instincts and knowledge of leverage and using your opponents' momentum. NFL resources can bring his strength and power up.

[beardown3231]

51 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

FWIW LaCanfora is now saying that the Cooks trade by NE was a move made to help them move up to draft a QB to succeed Brady when he retires.  It may be far fetched but it's not entirely crazy to think Belichick would try something like this to jump both division rivals in the Bills and Dolphins in getting their respective QBs.

Albright tweeted as soon as it happened yesterday that he got a text regarding the Pats' interest in Rosen.

[G08]

Quote

According to Pro Football Focus, only six defensive linemen of 250-plus pounds drafted in the first round this century finished the Combine three-cone drill in less than seven seconds (Freeney and Mathis didn’t participate during their respective draft years).

The list features a future Pro Football Hall of Fame selection (DeMarcus Ware), a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year (J.J. Watt) and three more of today’s top pass-rushers in Melvin Ingram, Joey Bosa and T.J. Watt.

Player #6? Harold Landry.

 

I also didn't realize he suffered a grade 2 high ankle sprain against VT.

Edited April 4, 2018 by G08

[beardown3231]

Kiper: Nelson at 8, Carter at 39

McShay: Nelson at 8, Donte Jackson at 39

Jackson is an interesting guy. If they do take Nelson, that'd be the opposite of what Pace usually does in the 1st round, although I suppose one could argue that Nelson is extremely athletic for the way he moves. If they take Nelson, maybe he flip flops the norm and takes a high-ceiling-low-floor guy in round 2, which Jackson is. He is under 180 pounds and his arms are very short, but not many guys in this draft are faster.

Edited April 4, 2018 by beardown3231

[dll2000]

3 hours ago, 51to54 said:

Ignoring the gist of your post, the addition of a third round pick, I've never been a big fan of letting a guy's estimated draft slot determine how tricky a GM should get when drafting. I think it's often times a case of being penny wise and pound foolish.

If Pace thinks Landry is his Edge Rusher and Landry is estimated to be a 20-25 slot pick, you still pick Landry at 8. No brainer. If a GM is worried about how it looks if he "overdrafts" a guy who fails, then the GM A) doesn't have the cajones to be a GM and B) should spend more time on evaluating talent and less time on evaluating twitter's opinion of his pick.

The too tricky part comes into play if Pace trades down to 16-18 and adds a third round pick. Brilliant. Can still get Landry a couple of picks ahead of the other GM's relying on his estimated slot and gets a free third rounder to boot. Then someone else picks Landry with 11-14. Sure, you still get to draft a first rounder a couple of picks later, but it's not the guy you wanted.

Having said that, only dropping from 8 to 11 or 12 would likely still get your Landry, but if Landry's on the board at 8 he's a sure thing drafting him at 8. Not a sure thing from 9 and later.

I'm starting to lean toward Landry as he has some great physical ability for a premier position speed pass rusher and shows great instincts and knowledge of leverage and using your opponents' momentum. NFL resources can bring his strength and power up.

I see what you are saying, but gambling is part of the game.  

I think GB is most likely first team that would conceivably take Landry and they are at 14.  If Landry was your target and you had any willing trade partners that kept you in front of Packers then it would be a worthy gamble.  If you it doesn't work out you can still take BPA in same general range you were.  

I don't think GB or any team values Landry enough to trade up to past 14 for him.  So he is either there or he isn't for them at 14.   

You have 49ers, Raiders, Dolphins, Bills and Redskins between Bears and Packers.

Who would they want to trade up for and who do they fear taking their pick rather than just standing pat?

I can see Raiders and SF both wanting Edmunds so one of those teams could use Bears to leap frog the other.  Foster has already been arrested twice in off season.  One is domestic so league is likely to suspend.  Even if Foster stays clean than at worst you have two great young LBers.  SF would obviously just want to wait and take Edmunds at their slot, but they don't know if Bears covet Edmunds and they don't know if Raiders do.  They have to think he is on each teams short list.  Kind of ironic in the switch in roles from last year.   SF would just be giving Bears back their 3 from Trubisky trade for a potential HOF LBer.  Not a bad deal if you ask me, I would make that deal to get my guy.   Plus, if Bears can't trade they likely take Edmunds for themselves.  Raiders Gruden absolutely loves young guys with high potential so I can see him willing to trade a 3rd for Edmunds.   He really, really raved about that 19 year old DL that came out years ago.  Pace calls 49ers and says I need a 3rd and 8 is yours.  We already have a similar offer.  That would scare me much if I coveted one player above others.   You have a ton of picks and one 3 is house money.  

Bills presumably need a young QB.  If there is one left they like then they can trade with Bears to get ahead of Dolphins.  Dolphins could have same fear if they are targeting an available QB.  Bears could play them off each other like 49ers did to Bears.  This likely depends on TB and Denver making non QB selections at their slot.  

Redskins I think are going stand pat and take best corner on their board.   If Fitz were to fall to Bears they may be a trade partner for their position of need.  I think you get a 2nd from Redskins too.  That is a doubtful scenario though.  Lots of good corners in this draft.

So a trade with SF or Raiders for a 3rd (and their pick).  Or a trade with Dolphins or Buffalo for their pick and a 2.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 4, 2018 by dll2000