2018 Draft Prospects

[topwop1]

One thing we have to consider is that there is talk that Pace had S Jamal Adams very high on his board last year and he likely would have taken him if both Garrett and Trubisky ended up being taken by CLE and SF at 1 & 2.

This means there is a possibility that either James or Fitzpatrick could be the pick this time around.  They both offer great versatility in the secondary and there is a history of team's Fangio has coached drafting a safety high (Eric Reid in 2013).

I like Amos and Jackson, but if there is a chance to add what you feel is an elite player at one of those positions then you do it.

Edited April 19, 2018 by topwop1

[G08]

Albert Breer:

2. I believe UTSA defensive end Marcus Davenport will go somewhere between picks 10 and 16, and has the potential to make that look way too low. One college scouting director who’s been studying him for a couple years told me Davenport played at 240 pounds in 2016, and 265 pounds in ’17, while adding “he’s still coming” weight-wise. Some believe he has a higher ceiling than Bradley Chubb.

[HuskieBear]

28 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

One thing we have to consider is that there is talk that Pace had S Jamal Adams very high on his board last year and he likely would have taken him if both Garrett and Trubisky ended up being taken by CLE and SF at 1 & 2.

While i'm definitely on the record saying that if you have a chance to grab an elite talent, you do it, it's also worth noting that Pace being high on Adams last year also came before AA38 had his best season in the league. Pace may now look at this as an opportunity to keep things status quo, so to speak, on the back end and see if AA38 and EJ39 can continue to grow and develop together, while adding at another position in front of them. a better front 7 could be key to the back 4 taking another positive step forward

[Sugashane]

48 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

One thing we have to consider is that there is talk that Pace had S Jamal Adams very high on his board last year and he likely would have taken him if both Garrett and Trubisky ended up being taken by CLE and SF at 1 & 2.

This means there is a possibility that either James or Fitzpatrick could be the pick this time around.  They both offer great versatility in the secondary and there is a history of team's Fangio has coached drafting a safety high (Eric Reid in 2013).

I like Amos and Jackson, but if there is a chance to add what you feel is an elite player at one of those positions then you do it.

I see what you are saying, but with Thomas and Lattimore on the board I don't think there is any way Pace takes Adams at 3. After a tradeback sure, but not at 3.

 

That being said, James and Minkah both are able to play NB and Minkah can play outside CB IMO too, so that ups their values as well.

 

 

[G08]

Not my work...

2018 Edge Rusher Analytics Based Tiered Rankings

 

For information on how I created this system, refer last year's post. I'm not going to do as much explaining this year, because I was pretty thorough last year and I haven't changed my system at all since then.

4-3 DEs

Tier 1: Young, Explosive, and Bendy

This group is your alpha dog edge rush types. Put them at DE, put them at OLB, put them at sam LB, put them at LEO, it doesn't matter, just put them on the edge and let them hunt. MLSR if it didn't stand out in the original post is "Most Likely Success Rate" which is basically just a simple formula to determine which players within the Tier 1 grouping are most likely to succeed in the NFL vs. which ones are most likely to disappoint despite their tier 1 status. That said though, a "disappointing" Tier 1 DE is still much more likely to succeed in the NFL than even the best tier 5 or 6 DEs.

Name	Age	Broad	Bend Score	MLSR	Comp?
Marcus Davenport	22.01	124	+42.44	+28.80	Robert Quinn
Harold Landry	22.25	119"	+44.30	+27.00	Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
Josh Sweat	21.44	124"	+80.00	+10.49	DeMarcus Ware
Arden Key	22.35	117	+32.53	-4.87	Damontre Moore

To put the MLSR numbers into perspective, we had 6 tier 1 DEs last year, and here's what their MLSR scores looked like:

Name	MLSR
Solomon Thomas	+151.31
Myles Garrett	+118.27
Tyus Bowser	+52.48
Jordan Willis	+47.67
Daeshon Hall	+36.41
Derek Barnett	+14.11

Bowser wasn't drafted to play DE, but the other five were. So even though we have almost as many tier 1 DEs this year as we had last year, the overall quality of those players isn't on par with last year's class. I also think Derek Barnett's production blew anyone in this class's out of the water, so even despite the lower MLSR score he had a big positive to overcome that.

Tier 2: Older, but big and still agile

Name	Age	Shuttle	Weight	Comp?
Tyquan Lewis	23.61	4.34	269	Chris Long
Sam Hubbard	23.19	4.32	270	Not really.
Gelen Robinson	23.24	4.32	283	Scott Crichton

These guys are typically better power ends than pure rush ends. Your 5 techs, your "base end", that kinda thing. I know Detroit and Minnesota use Zeke Ansah and Everson Griffen as RDEs, but they win more with power than speed, and Zeke had nice broad/3 cone numbers too. But yeah these guys are great candidates to play LDE, 5 tech, whatever you wanna call the hybrid DE position that wins with power and occasionally kicks inside to play 3 tech in obvious passing situations.

Tier 3: Young and explosive, but stiff

Name	Age	Weight	Reps	Vert	Broad	Bend Score	Comp?
Bradley Chubb	22.20	269	24	36.0	121	-31.18	Not really.
Rasheem Green	21.31	275	23	32.5	118	-1.57	Charles Johnson
Uchenna Nwosu	21.69	251	20	32.0	119	-4.58	Jerry Hughes
Trent Harris	21.97	246	17	32.0	117	-47.82	Not really.

This is another group better suited to play 5 tech than pure rush DE. This particular group has a lower ceiling than Tier 2, but does seem to have a lower bust rate as well. If you're interested in a boom/bust play, tier 2 is the group for you, whereas if you're looking more for a steady contributor with good but not great upside, this is the group you want to be picking from.

Tier 4: Young, but not particularly athletic

This is the tier I didn't mention last year that kind of got me in trouble because Carl Lawson happened. This is also the group that includes Demarcus Lawrence, who blew up in 2017, but still didn't surpass this group's current RCS king, Carlos Dunlap. Dunlap had 27.5 RCS, Lawrence only managed to put up 23.5 whether by injury or just middling play on the field through three years. Anyway, here are those guys for this year's class.

I also want to specify that I'm putting young guys who have incomplete athletic testing in here as well.

Name	Age	Comp?
Qualen Cunningham	21.78	Not really.
Jesse Aniebonam	22.36	Incomplete data.
Aaron Tiller	22.36	Incomplete data.
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	20.98	Not really.

This isn't a great group, but there have been successes in this group before, so I figured I'd include it this year instead of leaving it out like I did last year.

3-4 OLBs (also 4-3 under Sam LBs)

Tier 1: Explosive and bendy

Name	Broad	Bend Score	Metric Comp
Dorance Armstrong	118	13.60	Aldon Smith
Joe Ostman	122	6.12	Ryan Kerrigan
Kylie Fitts	117	75.08	Whitney Mercilus
Kemoko Turay	119	103.16	Trent Murphy
Sharif Finch	117	54.45	Marcus Smith
Derek McCartney	122	30.57	Not really.
Quincy Redmon	119	2.03	Not really.
Andrew Ankrah	118	41.68	Not really.
Marcell Frazier	118	31.73	Not really.

And there ya have it. If your guy wasn't on one of these lists let me know and I'll either add him if I forgot him or explain why he missed the cut.

[Epyon]

Rotoworld put out a 7 round mock today, and I'd actually be thrilled with it for us:

1. Nelson-OG

2. Crosby-OT

4a. Shaquem Griffin-ILB

4b. Ballage-RB

5. Coutee-WR

6. Jordan Thomas-CB

7. Micheal Joseph-CB

 

Still leaves us thin at OLB, but I like all of the first 5 rounds as picks (and just don't know enough about the 6th and 7th round guys to comment).   Nelson and Crosby would be a very- unsexy first two rounds, but I can't hate on OL investment.  Griffin gives the media the high publicity feel good story (and honestly if that kid had 2 hands, he'd be at latest a 2nd rounder), Ballage is a big bodied RB who is great as a pass catcher, making him a pretty ideal Howard Backup, and Coutee seems like the type of guy who could thrive in a KC style offense.

[beardown3231]

37 minutes ago, Epyon said:

Rotoworld put out a 7 round mock today, and I'd actually be thrilled with it for us:

1. Nelson-OG

2. Crosby-OT

4a. Shaquem Griffin-ILB

4b. Ballage-RB

5. Coutee-WR

6. Jordan Thomas-CB

7. Micheal Joseph-CB

 

Still leaves us thin at OLB, but I like all of the first 5 rounds as picks (and just don't know enough about the 6th and 7th round guys to comment).   Nelson and Crosby would be a very- unsexy first two rounds, but I can't hate on OL investment.  Griffin gives the media the high publicity feel good story (and honestly if that kid had 2 hands, he'd be at latest a 2nd rounder), Ballage is a big bodied RB who is great as a pass catcher, making him a pretty ideal Howard Backup, and Coutee seems like the type of guy who could thrive in a KC style offense.

So, no pass rushers? How could you be thrilled with a mock draft for the 2018 Bears without any pass rushers selected?

[G08]

Pass rushers are the most important part of any defense, IMO. They make your entire defense better in the pass game.

We got rid of McPhee, Young and Houston and replaced them with Aaron Lynch, who dinged himself at practice yesterday. We need a pass rusher, badly.

[Sugashane]

9 minutes ago, G08 said:

Pass rushers are the most important part of any defense, IMO. They make your entire defense better in the pass game.

We got rid of McPhee, Young and Houston and replaced them with Aaron Lynch, who dinged himself at practice yesterday. We need a pass rusher, badly.

 

[Epyon]

43 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

So, no pass rushers? How could you be thrilled with a mock draft for the 2018 Bears without any pass rushers selected?

Honestly? Because the player value from the mock was good (a "Best player available" mindset), and I don't expect us to be able to fill every single hole this year regardless.

Pass rush is a critically important factor, yes...... but outside of Harold Landry in the first round, or Davenport if you strongly believe in his potential, you aren't going to get a pass rusher worth actually putting on the field this year regardless, because it's a terrible draft for them.. and even though I love Landry as a prospect, I think Barkley-RB, Ward-CB, and Nelson-OG are better overall players, so I can't get upset by choosing one of them over forcing a pass rusher pick.

[Sugashane]

16 minutes ago, Epyon said:

Honestly? Because the player value from the mock was good (a "Best player available" mindset), and I don't expect us to be able to fill every single hole this year regardless.

Pass rush is a critically important factor, yes...... but outside of Harold Landry in the first round, or Davenport if you strongly believe in his potential, you aren't going to get a pass rusher worth actually putting on the field this year regardless, because it's a terrible draft for them.. and even though I love Landry as a prospect, I think Barkley-RB, Ward-CB, and Nelson-OG are better overall players, so I can't get upset by choosing one of them over forcing a pass rusher pick.

 

I think this is a top heavy draft at EDGE, but saying no one is worth putting on the field is a bit too much IMO (Armstrong, Hubbard, and numerous others will likely see significant PT this year). There are guys who will play well above their draft slot as almost every year does. I mean, this year Thomas and Joseph likely couldn't even unseat Cooper, Callahan, or LeBlanc. If you get a guy who has physical tools to work with and can make him a project, he is well worth a later pick.

 

I do need to point out that BPA to me is as much long-term potential of a players as current standing though. There are several interpretations on it.

[TB 1]

1 hour ago, Epyon said:

Rotoworld put out a 7 round mock today, and I'd actually be thrilled with it for us:

1. Nelson-OG

2. Crosby-OT

4a. Shaquem Griffin-ILB

4b. Ballage-RB

5. Coutee-WR

6. Jordan Thomas-CB

7. Micheal Joseph-CB

 

Still leaves us thin at OLB, but I like all of the first 5 rounds as picks (and just don't know enough about the 6th and 7th round guys to comment).   Nelson and Crosby would be a very- unsexy first two rounds, but I can't hate on OL investment.  Griffin gives the media the high publicity feel good story (and honestly if that kid had 2 hands, he'd be at latest a 2nd rounder), Ballage is a big bodied RB who is great as a pass catcher, making him a pretty ideal Howard Backup, and Coutee seems like the type of guy who could thrive in a KC style offense.

The problem still is that you will not win meaningful games against good teams without a pass rush. The edge rush is Leonard Floyd and a bunch of stiffs.   this mock draft means that the Bears will ignore the defensive side of the ball for 2 straight drafts. Winning teams draft both sides of the ball. This leaves them thin at ILB,OLB and DL.

[G08]

We have to keep in mind that Leonard Floyd is coming off MCL and PCL damage while missing 10 games in 2 seasons.

 

To say OLB isn't a dire, DIRE need is simply not being honest. I hope Pace realizes this and doesn't hope that Lorenzo Carter can save us.

[TB 1]

11 minutes ago, G08 said:

We have to keep in mind that Leonard Floyd is coming off MCL and PCL damage while missing 10 games in 2 seasons.

 

To say OLB isn't a dire, DIRE need is simply not being honest. I hope Pace realizes this and doesn't hope that Lorenzo Carter can save us.

Pace realizes this. Lorenzo Carter to me is very similar to Floyd anyway. Davenport at 8 just might be the way to go.

[G08]

2 minutes ago, TB 1 said:

Pace realizes this. Lorenzo Carter to me is very similar to Floyd anyway. Davenport at 8 just might be the way to go.

Man I hope so. I just think the drop-off from Chubb/Davenport/Landry is substantial.