Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2023 (All up)

[Ty21]

Good write up as always. I personally disagree with having the colts and eagles so high. I’d have the Steelers a bit higher. The falcons are a difficult eval because they did a lot of longer term things that will leave them in purgatory still, but if you didn’t believe in the top qbs, don’t waste your ammo getting one I suppose. It’s gonna be a rough year with Ridder. It’s difficult not to put the cards top 5 just for what they got from the Texans. They could have two top 5 picks next year from it and they ended up getting their favorite guy over a couple question marks or reaches at 3. 

[THE DUKE]

On 5/10/2023 at 12:50 PM, General Tso said:

That Franchise Guy on YT called Forbes to a zone team like Washington. I know he has weight concerns, but in terms of attitude, he's got that dawg in him.

Forbes is a better tackler than Banks who weighs 20-30 lbs more than him

[BetterCallSaul]

49 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

Good write up as always. I personally disagree with having the colts and eagles so high.

Wut...why?

 

I could see Anthony Richardson haters not liking the Colts draft, but what in the world did the Eagles do wrong? They hit a homerun & I've not seen one person dispute that.

[Ty21]

5 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said:

Wut...why?

 

I could see Anthony Richardson haters not liking the Colts draft, but what in the world did the Eagles do wrong? They hit a homerun & I've not seen one person dispute that.

There’s been a couple people. Carter didn’t slip for no reason and I’m of the opinion those reasons won’t disappear. Nolan Smith’s production didn’t come close to the hype he gained after his combine. It’s just my opinion, but I think the colts and eagles were among the two most fallible first round teams. I could look like a fool in the future for my contrarian take here but I don’t think either of those guys will be as advertised. Not to say the eagles didn’t have a top 5 class regardless (getting Ringo and Ojomo so late was great). 
 

i will contend that the eagles don’t necessarily need those players to be gods either. Their roster is so strong at the moment that they will be just fine if those guys are merely serviceable. 
 

And on the colts, really how to rank the class is how you feel about Richardson. He has good character and athletic traits but he’s not a great qb and I don’t believe in him. 

[BetterCallSaul]

1 minute ago, Ty21 said:

There’s been a couple people. Carter didn’t slip for no reason and I’m of the opinion those reasons won’t disappear. Nolan Smith’s production didn’t come close to the hype he gained after his combine. It’s just my opinion, but I think the colts and eagles were among the two most fallible first round teams. I could look like a fool in the future for my contrarian take here but I don’t think either of those guys will be as advertised. Not to say the eagles didn’t have a top 5 class regardless (getting Ringo and Ojomo so late was great).

Yeah I guess if you think Carter is a clown and Smith sucks, sure. I just didn't think either of those things are going to happen. Carter is a moron, but he'll be an elite player and he's on a well-run professional team.

1 minute ago, Ty21 said:

I will contend that the eagles don’t necessarily need those players to be gods either. Their roster is so strong at the moment that they will be just fine if those guys are merely serviceable.

They do not. They could have each of those players bust & still make the Super Bowl. Crazy.

1 minute ago, Ty21 said:

And on the colts, really how to rank the class is how you feel about Richardson. He has good character and athletic traits but he’s not a great qb and I don’t believe in him. 

That's fine. I figured it was the AR thing. I love the gamble by INDY, but it's certainly a guessing game. Who knows if he'll be good? It's way too difficult to project Richardson, so I don't fault anyone for saying BUST. I think it's 60/40 that he busts, but a 40% chance that AR is good means you're getting a possible uberstar. It's worth it for the Colts to me. The rest of their draft was really really good though, even if AR isn't the guy. He will define the class, but they got good value all over.

[dll2000]

Interesting to go back and look at what people thought of 2020 draft classes and picks.  

We are all going to be wrong on most people and right on the minority.

[ET80]

On 5/5/2023 at 2:39 AM, goldfishwars said:

10. Houston Texans

This Class In One Sentence:

A perfect concoction of making the right and wrong calls

Pre-Draft Needs (According to https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/team-needs-2023)

QB, WR, EDGE, DL, CB, IOL, OT

Selections

2. C.J. Stroud | QB | Ohio State

3. Will Anderson Jr. | Edge | Alabama

62. Juice Scruggs | C | Penn State

69. Nathaniel Dell | WR | Houston

109. Dylan Horton  | Edge | TCU

167. Henry To'oTo'o  | LB | Alabama

201. Jarrett Patterson  | C | Notre Dame

205. Xavier Hutchinson  | WR | Iowa State

248. Brandon Hill  | S | Pittsburgh

What I liked:

The Texans gave themselves the ammo to attack this draft and seemed to have taken a flame-thrower to a knife fight. Parking whatever value concerns in that trade-up, landing two premier picks in the top five is an exciting move for a fanbase who have starved of good football. Old favorite, DeMeco Ryans is in town – business is booming, baby.

I like Stroud as a prospect. I think he’s the best thrower of this year’s crop. He can spin it with touch and feather in balls to tight windows. There’s also an untapped resource of mobility we glimpsed in the Championship game. Man, i just liked that Houston selected him at 2. It was the right choice, even if they did it for the weirdest reasons.

You can see why the Texans were enamoured with Will Anderson. He’s an infectious personality and put up insane production at Alabama. Demeco Ryans needs edge players of his quality to get his defensive scheme to tick, and it makes sense to want a dominant player in both facets of the game - a true blue prospect in a class low on those. 

I love the Tank Dell selection at 69. I’m a big Dell guy. I get the lack of ideal measurables, but his production at Houston was gaudy – 109 passes caught, 1,400 yards and 17 touchdowns. It’s rare for a player of his stature to have been used as a red-zone weapon, but you can see why. He’s one of the quickest separators I’ve ever seen on film and made some good defensive backs look silly at the Senior Bowl. If he can hold up with the physical aspect of the game at the NFL level, this will be a great selection.

Elsewhere, To'oTo'o has been a smart, productive player at Alabama – gets a lot out of less. Xavier Hutchinson has a productive receiver at Iowa State. And I like the value of Patterson at 201. If you can pretend you didn’t see Adebewore launch him into another dimension during Senior Bowl drills, then he’s been a clean and versatile lineman during his career at Notre Dame.

What I didn’t like:

Please don’t do it, fellas. Don’t fall in love with non-quarterbacks. It’s nearly never worth it – I don’t care how good he is. What matters is how good you are right now. And when it comes to the Texans, the betting market certainly doesn't think so. And that’s a problem for Houston, who have gambled their first-round pick away next year, something which could easily become a top-five selection. Anderson is a fine prospect, and they may think he can be better than picks 12, 33 and next year’s first-round selection combined – but the odds don’t support it. Not when those picks can turn into more, as the Cardinals already demonstrated.

I don’t want to hear the dumb argument about how ‘this was really a trade-up for Stroud.’ No, no. Please stop. The Texans already had the opportunity to draft Stroud. This trade was a solution to resolve an in-house dispute of their own making. Their process may have led them to Anderson, but time was up to get that franchise quarterback. And do you know what? Even if that call came from the owner, he was right. It would have been an insane move to pass on this class given where they were.

Outside the excitement of the first round picks and trade-up debate, everything else was a little spotty (minus Tank). Juice Scruggs I had pegged as a ‘maybe starter’ in a deep center class. He’s certainly solid, but we are not talking at pick 62 levels of solidity. Dylan Horton is okay. His selection certainly isn’t egregious at 109, but I don’t like him better than, say, what the Commanders got at 137 in KJ Henry. I think he typifies how ‘eh okay’ the day three selections were.

One of the reasons I enjoy these write-ups is because we can go back and evaluate the opinions on this. Not as knock on anyone in particular (especially @goldfishwars, who nailed his assessment on Tank Dell) but it's interesting to see how many people were CONVINCED the Texans pushed a top 5-10 pick to Arizona. This time last year, I felt good about this move. All you have to do is look at my responses in-thread.

That being said - I *underestimated* how good this class was. AFCS Champs, Playoff W against the Browns, going into this season as a favorite in the AFC? Yeah, you're not doing that without BOTH the OROY and DROY. This doesn't happen with Anderson and Will Levis, or Stroud and Lukas Van Ness. You needed 2 AND 3 to get this done. If anything, the Texans should give Arizona ANOTHER pick as a tip, this was the absolute best case scenario.

This draft completely changed the Texans. With successive picks, they found the faces of their franchise on both sides of the ball. Football types are now citing the Texans as "how to rebuild" when you're having to build from the beginning.

And that all started with CJ and the Terminator.

[skywindO2]

Do not bump old threads.

This is a warning, @ET80 

[ET80]

I AM THE WARNING

[Steelersfan43]

The Texans deserve a lot of credit for realizing the potential value of their 2024 first round pick last year, since they had a lot of value at that time...Great move for them

[CWood21]

On 5/20/2024 at 8:27 PM, ET80 said:

This draft completely changed the Texans. With successive picks, they found the faces of their franchise on both sides of the ball. Football types are now citing the Texans as "how to rebuild" when you're having to build from the beginning.

And that all started with CJ and the Terminator.

I mean, I feel like it's a bit disingenuous to not acknowledge the fact CJ Stroud is coming off arguably the best year by a rookie QB ever.  If that's your expectation for every rookie QB when rebuilding, I think you've got some set of unrealistic expectations.  Imagine if Stroud played like Bryce Young, we'd likely be talking about the future of Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison in Arizona.

[ET80]

9 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Imagine if Stroud played like Bryce Young, we'd likely be talking about the future of Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison in Arizona.

Why imagine it? It didn't happen. It's a moot point. 

Bobby Slowik created an offense to play to Stroud's strengths and Stroud wasn't in a toxic situation where his HC was fired mid-season after a meddling owner forced a pick on coaching and the FO. The likelihood of him playing like Young wasn't that high given his surroundings. Yeah, it helps that Stroud was considered the better player (even by people in the Panthers organization) but expecting Stroud to play like one of the worst rookie QBs in recent memory is ignoring a ton of context. Stroud didn't just walk in and become the best rookie QB in recent memory - it was a meticulous effort by Slowik, a guy likely to be the most coveted HC option next offseason. 

Bryce Young played like Bryce Young because he went to a bad roster with conflict between coaching and ownership. It was a really bad situation if you looked at it objectively, it's more than just looking at the player. Stroud went to a team with a much more stable coaching situation along with an owner who learned (the hard way) how to leave football decisions to football people. 

The results were bound to be different.