ThatJerkDave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, Mazrimiv said: Let's say at 58, Gute has the choice of Legette or taking the first RB off the board. Which way does he go? That is a good question. If you are true to your board, it is probably Legette. There will be a diminishing return for any WR the Packers select though. I don't want to make this about any specific player, rather a how much does need factor into a selection. Say everyone else just forgets that Marvin Harrison is on the board, don't we have to take him at 25? Just like if we were to take our mystery 30th ranked prospect at 58, it is just too much of a value to pass up. I also like the idea of jumping the board just a little to get your pick of the class at a certain position. Just don't want to jump the value too much. Is Blake Corum at 58 that much better than MarShawn Lloyd in the 4th, or Cory Schrader in the 6th? This is a fun brain exercise. The best we can really do is run the mock draft simulators and see what the computers leave us with. I just ran through a sim and just selected the recommended top ranked guy on the board. My draft was a mess (I picked JJ McCarthy at 25). But at pick 88 the only RBs that were taken were: Jonathon Brooks (45), Braelon Allen (82), and Bucky Irving (87), and my pick at 91 happened to be Will Shipley. IF that were the way it plays out, I don't think I mind having 4th shot at a RB while waiting until pick 91. I think there are superior players that present too much value at different positions (even if I take 4 DTs and a first round QB 😂 over obvious needs). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, Sandy said: I'll admit I haven't looked too hard at this year's edge class, but it's definitely an area I could see us adding to early. I'm all for this. The pass rushers are one of the groups I really lean on the workout numbers when reviewing. See how they win, and if the athletic profile matches what you see in games. If it doesn't, there is probably a low chance of the success being replicated at the next level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneTwoSixFive Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 (edited) OneTwoSixFive said: outside CB, slot CB, S, RB, ILB, OL gives six different position choices over 5 top 100 picks.....and each of those positions could benefit from an extra guy. How many choices there are that make sense to Gute at each pick, is another question entirely. I can almost always find a combination that fits the needs when I do a mock, but then I am more influenced by the players consensus value than Gute is likely to be - and I have far less information on each player. OlgGuy said We need another EDGE rusher. Enagbare is going to be out at least half the year. Preston isn't getting any younger and is at that age you expect a decline. Cox wasn't active for a single game so not sure what you can count on from him. We have Gary and LVN as folks we should be able to count on as + player at the position. Yes, I'm accounting for a big second year jump from LVN. It is not a position flush with talent. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There are two positions not mentioned by me where I can definitely see a player taken, Edge and DT. While a safety that can play single high is probably the most pressing need, it may not be (probably will not be) the first pick. i could absolutely see one of these positions taken. For example Byron Murphy or Jer'zhan Newton at 25, while if you are looking at edge guys you can go big as the Packers have usually done (like Braelen Trice) or Hafley might want a smaller quicker guy, like Chop Robinson. Pick one at #25 has always been a problem for me in getting a good value pick, so a guy in either position could solve that However, my original 6 positions means you miss elsewhere if you go DT/NT or Edge. Either of these could easily happen and in the end it will depend both on who is available and how Gute has prioritised the various position groups. How high a priority to him is the running game (RB and O line), relative to the run defense (D line, ILB, Edge, Safety) or the pass defense (CB and others). Edited February 4 by OneTwoSixFive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NFLGURU Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 50 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said: The pass rushers are one of the groups I really lean on the workout numbers when reviewing. See how they win, and if the athletic profile matches what you see in games. If it doesn't, there is probably a low chance of the success being replicated at the next level. Agree, just because player X is the top running back this year, doesn't mean it translates to the next level. That's where talent evaluation and weighing your entire board of all positions comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 42 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said: OneTwoSixFive said: outside CB, slot CB, S, RB, ILB, OL gives six different position choices over 5 top 100 picks.....and each of those positions could benefit from an extra guy. How many choices there are that make sense to Gute at each pick, is another question entirely. I can almost always find a combination that fits the needs when I do a mock, but then I am more influenced by the players consensus value than Gute is likely to be - and I have far less information on each player. OlgGuy said We need another EDGE rusher. Enagbare is going to be out at least half the year. Preston isn't getting any younger and is at that age you expect a decline. Cox wasn't active for a single game so not sure what you can count on from him. We have Gary and LVN as folks we should be able to count on as + player at the position. Yes, I'm accounting for a big second year jump from LVN. It is not a position flush with talent. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There are two positions not mentioned by me where I can definitely see a player taken, Edge and DT. While a safety that can play single high is probably the most pressing need, it may not be (probably will not be) the first pick. i could absolutely see one of these positions taken. For example Byron Murphy or Jer'zhan Newton at 25, while if you are looking at edge guys you can go big as the Packers have usually done (like Braelen Trice) or Hafley might want a smaller quicker guy, like Chop Robinson. Pick one at #25 has always been a problem for me in getting a good value pick, so a guy in either position could solve that However, my original 6 positions means you miss elsewhere if you go DT/NT or Edge. Either of these could easily happen and in the end it will depend both on who is available and how Gute has prioritised the various position groups. How high a priority to him is the running game (RB and O line), relative to the run defense (D line, ILB, Edge, Safety) or the pass defense (CB and others). I'm down for a safety and ILB via free agency. If I had one guy I want, it's Patrick Queen. I don't know enough about our new DCs defensive tendencies to know if he's still a fit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 17 minutes ago, Old Guy said: I'm down for a safety and ILB via free agency. If I had one guy I want, it's Patrick Queen. I don't know enough about our new DCs defensive tendencies to know if he's still a fit though. Ironically I just tagged you in another thread about him, but he's a perfect fit - Hafley likes speed at linebacker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fattlipp Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Renardo Green is a stud, Especially in Press Man…. Kinchen, Green, Cooper would be a nice first 3 picks…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Old Guy said: I'm down for a safety and ILB via free agency. If I had one guy I want, it's Patrick Queen. I don't know enough about our new DCs defensive tendencies to know if he's still a fit though. I maybe could have imagined GB pursuing Queen if Orr had been the guy at DC. I'd be awfully surprised to see it happen now. That's going to be a big number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 I’m excited because this will be Murphy’s final season. I feel like he’s going to apply plenty of pressure to go out and make some splash moves this off-season. The nice thing is we don’t really need any high market positions. We could use a veteran corner and a veteran safety for sure, and there’s always a 30+ corner on the market willing to sign a one year deal and there’s always a good number of safeties. We could realistically sign four starters in free agency. Then be completely free to draft based on best player available in the draft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneTwoSixFive Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, fattlipp said: Renardo Green is a stud, Especially in Press Man…. Kinchen, Green, Cooper would be a nice first 3 picks…. Just seen a Brett Kollman piece on the top 5 guys at the Shrine Bowl. He really rates Green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneTwoSixFive Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 7 minutes ago, MacReady said: I’m excited because this will be Murphy’s final season. I feel like he’s going to apply plenty of pressure to go out and make some splash moves this off-season. The nice thing is we don’t really need any high market positions. We could use a veteran corner and a veteran safety for sure, and there’s always a 30+ corner on the market willing to sign a one year deal and there’s always a good number of safeties. We could realistically sign four starters in free agency. Then be completely free to draft based on best player available in the draft. I just don't get the feeling that Murphy wants to change up this year because it is his last year and I don't expect any pressure coming from him to make a big splash. That doesn't mean the Packers won't get (for example) a talented safety who can run a single high scheme, but that would be more about giving the new DC what he wants, than trying to 'buy' a better legacy. I do believe that Gute likes to fill positions of greater need with later tier veterans before the draft, because it allows him more freedom at draft time to go in any direction he pleases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said: Just seen a Brett Kollman piece on the top 5 guys at the Shrine Bowl. He really rates Green. I assume this is what you are referring to. His Green commentary starts at ~3:45, but it's all worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tperk Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said: I assume this is what you are referring to. His Green commentary starts at ~3:45, but it's all worth watching. I watched parts of a couple Colorado State games this season and Kamara was pretty disruptive in both games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 (edited) 32 minutes ago, MacReady said: I’m excited because this will be Murphy’s final season. I feel like he’s going to apply plenty of pressure to go out and make some splash moves this off-season. I'm going to assume this is more an attempt to get a conversation going on FA's vs you honestly believing Murphy will be applying "plenty of pressure" to make splash moves in his final year. That's ridiculous. Edited February 4 by Mazrimiv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWhitehurst Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 If the team thinks it is only 2-3 players away from being the top contender, then sure, go strictly "Greatest Need" approach. If they do think this, then, for example, they'd perhaps take a Safety at #25, a LB or Edge at #41, etc., etc., even though that might not be the "Best Player Available" at the draft spot. If, however, they think they're more than just 2-3 players away (which I happen to think), then I hope they stick with the general formula of "Best Player Available at a Position of Greater or Lesser Need." Hope I'm wrong and it is sooner, but currently I still think we're not a top SB contender until 2025 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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