Surprise Teams - Defense

[JaguarCrazy2832]

3 hours ago, Pugger said:

It will be a surprise if the Packers' D finally plays up to it's potential.  😕

2021 was a good year, not sure what happened last year

[Soko]

On 6/8/2023 at 10:52 AM, onejayhawk said:

Jeremy Reaves had an All-Pro season but in 2021 he was just another DB. Daron Payne had 11.5 sacks, 2nd among DT to Chris Jones, but in 2021 he was just a guy. 

How do you spot an ugly mutt who has turned into an attack dog? 
Which team(s) in the 2022 bottom ten will wind up in the 2023 top 10?
Which middling teams that could become top 5? 

Probably worth mentioning in this context that Reaves was an All-Pro as STer, not a defender.

[onejayhawk]

17 minutes ago, Soko said:

Probably worth mentioning in this context that Reaves was an All-Pro as STer, not a defender.

Which makes the transformation even harder to understand. The two DT were beasts but from where does the rest of the improvement come? The scoring defense improved from 2.5 ppg over the league average to 1.7 ppg under the league average.

[Dash]

2 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Which makes the transformation even harder to understand. The two DT were beasts but from where does the rest of the improvement come? The scoring defense improved from 2.5 ppg over the league average to 1.7 ppg under the league average.

Red zone and strong run defense. FO has Washington listed as the 3rd best team in pts allowed in the red zone per drive.

[onejayhawk]

2 hours ago, Dash said:

Red zone and strong run defense. FO has Washington listed as the 3rd best team in pts allowed in the red zone per drive.

That's helpful in explaining how it happened. 

Does it help us predict the next occurrence? Were there signs to tip us that Washington would get really stingy compared to previous years?

[Dash]

9 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

That's helpful in explaining how it happened. 

Does it help us predict the next occurrence? Were there signs to tip us that Washington would get really stingy compared to previous years?

Stout run defense will mostly always result in less points in the red zone. They bring back most of their guys on the dline so that should help.

Maybe the defensive backs they have are better with less ground to cover. They are putting Forbes in who is on the slighter side so he might be a target for offenses in the red zone. 

Or they just faced a good amount of bad red zone offenses. 

[onejayhawk]

25 minutes ago, Dash said:

Stout run defense will mostly always result in less points in the red zone. They bring back most of their guys on the dline so that should help.

Maybe the defensive backs they have are better with less ground to cover. They are putting Forbes in who is on the slighter side so he might be a target for offenses in the red zone. 

Or they just faced a good amount of bad red zone offenses. 

This begs the question, which team is a candidate for a big jump in 2023? 

[Dash]

1 hour ago, onejayhawk said:

This begs the question, which team is a candidate for a big jump in 2023? 

For defenses coaching and defensive line play are the most stable factors for a defense to continue to be good from year to year. Good run defenders and pass rushers tend to stay good year to year. 

 

In terms of making a big jump maybe look at teams that have gotten a proven defensive head coach or coordinator, added pass rushing/run stuffing talent, or a team with some young stars that have another year of experience under their belt. 

Coverage is less certain since it hugely depends on the QB faced. But you can look at coverage guys who played in divisions with good QBs and see how they performed year to year. 

[onejayhawk]

3 hours ago, Dash said:

For defenses coaching and defensive line play are the most stable factors for a defense to continue to be good from year to year. Good run defenders and pass rushers tend to stay good year to year. 

In terms of making a big jump maybe look at teams that have gotten a proven defensive head coach or coordinator, added pass rushing/run stuffing talent, or a team with some young stars that have another year of experience under their belt. 

Coverage is less certain since it hugely depends on the QB faced. But you can look at coverage guys who played in divisions with good QBs and see how they performed year to year. 

Sounds like the Chiefs. They lost Frank Clark but they Get Tershawn Wharton back, added Charles Omenihu, Drue Tranquill, and drafted Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the 1st round. That's a lot of manpower going to a front seven. The issue is that they were top half of the league already. 

 You can make a case for the Bears. They invested a 2nd and a 3rd on DTs Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens. In FA they signed DE DeMarcus Walker, LB Tremaine Edmunds, LB T.J. Edwards, and a ton of depth players. I doubt that they challenge the top 10 but this should be a competitive defense by midseason, if not sooner. 

[HoboRocket]

Cardinals are going to surprise people, I think this year but POSSIBLY next.

They've added so many young prospects to the DB room, and it's going to be the first year for a lot of young investments getting starting time on the DL.

According to reports, you have Zaven Collins now playing edge. The former 1st rounder was rated highly as an edge on this site, but was used at ILB his first two seasons. Cam Thomas was a 3rd rounder last year. So was Myjai Sanders. Both are competing for starting snaps. The team also spent a 2nd on BJ Ojulari this year. Chances are good that a couple players from that group and up becoming good DEs. 

At LB, it's a completely different look. They're emphasizing coverage ability, so Isaiah Simmons is out and Kyzir White is in. We'll see who the second LB is. 

At CB, they added Garrett Williams and Kei'Trel Clark in the draft. Both were considered steals who slid due to injury concerns. Both would be excellent slot CBs, and Williams also thrived playing outside at Syracuse. The Cardinals still have one of the best safety duos in the NFL, and Isaiah Simmons is now a back-up safety. The role should suit him more in the NFL, could be a productive box safety.

Anyways, the Cardinals' defense could be spectacularly bad in 2023 with the youth and lack of continuity. With the defense being among the worst in the NFL last season, SHOULD there be continuity? 

Definitely a situation where it could blow up. Or the youth might shine and demonstrate the development that often comes naturally to young, motivated players, and the defense surprises people. Maybe finishing bottom of the top 10?

[Dr A W Niloc]

9 minutes ago, HoboRocket said:

Cardinals are going to surprise people, I think this year but POSSIBLY next.

Yes, 2024, but it will likely have as much to do with the schedule makers as the personnel.

[ReadyToThump]

On 6/9/2023 at 12:21 PM, Pugger said:

It will be a surprise if the Packers' D finally plays up to it's potential.  😕

The defense is oozing with talent, but with Joe Barry at the helm I don't feel very confident he'll have them playing up to their potential, again. If that is the case, MLF and Barry should get the boot. No excuse for keeping a garbage can like Barry around (apparently it was MLF's decision).

[Pugger]

22 hours ago, ReadyToThump said:

The defense is oozing with talent, but with Joe Barry at the helm I don't feel very confident he'll have them playing up to their potential, again. If that is the case, MLF and Barry should get the boot. No excuse for keeping a garbage can like Barry around (apparently it was MLF's decision).

I hear ya.  MLF's decision to keep Barry around is something I cannot comprehend and if this unit unit underperforms again this year IMO that is grounds for the dismissal of both of them.

[Duluther]

Everybody pick your favorite team! Even Cardinals fans are apparently allowed.

[Jakuvious]

I'm more willing to buy into coaching changes than personnel changes, so the two I would see most likely to improve would be the Dolphins (Fangio) and the Panthers (Evero.) I think both teams have enough talent on each level of the defense to produce, just neither properly put it all together last year. In the Panthers case, they do need the offense to do enough to make a top 10 defense even possible, so we will have to see how Young does, there.

The other one I like in terms of leadership change would be the Vikings getting Flores, but I think there's a much more severe talent issue on that defense right now, and that's if they can even figure things out with Hunter right now. I think they need a year or two before they can get things together on D.

 

For other teams I've seen mentioned so far:

The Browns, I feel like we've been through this before. Not saying it won't happen, but this very much has to be a I'll believe it when I see it kind of thing, at this point. Garrett is great, but they haven't done well with really anything much they've put around him in recent years. Tomlinson and Smith look like solid adds, but this isn't the first time they've had a good DL on paper, where the narrative has been they've added some front 7 pieces to go with Garrett, and then it just didn't pan out. I'm also not a big Schwartz guy. That might just be me, but he's one that's stuck around the league longer than he should have, IMO.

Ryan Nielsen for the Falcons could go either way for me. Relatively unknown. The Saints had a good defense last year, especially in the second half of the season, but it's really hard to parse what was Nielsen from what was Richard and what was just holdover from Dennis Allen already having pretty good defenses there the last 5 or 6 years or so. Most of the key pieces were veterans that had been around for a bit already (Jordan, Davis, Lattimore, etc.) so it's hard to say how much Nielsen influenced the production there. Talent wise, it feels kind of meh to me, honestly. Jarrett is awesome still, and Calais Campbell we're just going to assume will produce until he gets bored of it. I don't think Terrell was as good last year, but CB can be that way. I do like Bates. But the additions at CB are all guys that haven't really been working out so far in Okudah, Hughes, and Flowers. So you're hoping you can do something previous coaches haven't, there. Nielsen brings a few Saints along for the ride, but not really the guys that were driving forces in the Saints defense. More supplemental pieces than anything. Like, Kaden Elliss is a gamble, plain and simple. You're kind of banking on Bud Dupree returning to his glory days as well, after really busting in Tennessee. Really don't think that happens. It just feels hopeful. You need 2021 Terrell and 2022 Elliss and 2019 Dupree and Andersen to suck a lot less and college level Okudah or Hughes, and then you'd have a great defense. But it's a lot to hope for.

Every time I see someone say the Packers defense is loaded with talent, I kind of assume they just mean it's loaded with first round picks. I don't really see the two things as the same. I do think the Packers defense will remain decent (it hasn't been bad in awhile, just very decent), but it's just a lot of first round picks that have turned into solid players, but very few that have turned into great ones. I don't really think that means they're super talented, personally. But I suppose that's just semantics.