Surprise Teams - Defense

[onejayhawk]

In 2022 the Philadelphia Eagles garnered a lot of making a Super Bowl run, but they only improved from 10th to 3rd. The Washington Football Team improved from 22nd to 4th but the big move was the NY Jets, moving from dead last to 5th. This is using the traditional standard of yardage allowed. Using Football Outsiders' composite grade, the Jets are still the big movers, from 32nd to 7th. In this comparison, the Eagles do better, moving from 25th to 6th while Washington moved from 27th to 9th. 

In 2022, the Jets added Sauce Gardner which obviously made an impact. Similarly, in 2021, the Cowboys moved from 23rd to 2nd behind Micah Parsons. Philadelphia was a good defense in 2020 and had an off year in 2021. There was a bounceback factor to go with Haason Reddick. However, it's not so easy with Washington. Jeremy Reaves had an All-Pro season but in 2021 he was just another DB. Daron Payne had 11.5 sacks, 2nd among DT to Chris Jones, but in 2021 he was just a guy. 

How do you spot an ugly mutt who has turned into an attack dog? 
Which team(s) in the 2022 bottom ten will wind up in the 2023 top 10?
Which middling teams that could become top 5? 

[Daniel]

The Titans were middling statistically, but had a top 5 run defense. Their best CBs and Amani Hooker were on and off the field all season, and Harold Landry missed the whole season.

All of those players are healthy, Fulton is in a contract year, and Dupree was replaced by Arden Key. Pass defense will be way better if they can stay healthy. That’s a big if, but avoiding injuries should be the primary focus of the staff, since it’s been the Achilles heel of the team for two years.

[scar988]

I think the Falcons improve a lot from 30 to middle of the pack. Massive changes on defense this year.

Adding Onyemata, Campbell, Harrison and Goldman to the DL helps a ton.

Added Bud Dupree to the Edge rotation and should see 2nd year jumps from Ebiketie and Malone.

LB Group should see jump from Andersen and added Ellis.

CBs should be better with Okudah instead of Hayward/Hall.

Ss added Jessie Bates and Grant is in 2nd year of starting. 

Nielsen is the wild card as a first year of him running a defense on his own. But I think they can improve from 30th to league average at minimum.

[Hunter2_1]

Falcons.

[MSURacerDT55]

When dealing with my Browns you have to preface things with "on paper" but on paper we have a very good defensive line with Garrett, Z.Smith, D.Tomlinson, O.Okoronkwo. Linebackers are ok (Even though I thought the last DC used J.Owusu-Koramoah wrong) and I think our DBs are severely underrated, namely MJ Emerson. I think if he played anywhere else people would be raving about him being one of the best 2nd year corners in the league, to go along with Ward, Newsome, Thornhill, Delpit, McLeod.  

Honestly, my largest source of optimism comes from Jim Schwartz, I think he has the reputation to get the most out of the most and the most out of the least and also put guys in the proper position to be successful. A few Examples:

- Schwartz was rumored to want a better defensive line, Berry brought in some new guys who can get after it.

- Having Denzel Ward play in the slot on occasion (which he was a stud at at OSU, when they had Lattimore and Conley and ranked 3rd in the country defensively) and having Newsome outside where he is more natural at.

- Having JOK as an apex player as opposed to having him in the box with undersized DTs getting his face beat in by guards.

- Putting a premium on run defense as much as pass rush

- playing more man coverage which matches the personnel's skill set

I just think schematically its going to be night and day from where we were and I think we have guys who can be playmakers and can match up with a lot of teams if used right. This is all premature of course but I think Schwartz is proven, they have the potential to be top 5 IMO, but would be totally good with anything 10-15 realistically. 

[scar988]

1 minute ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

When dealing with my Browns you have to preface things with "on paper" but on paper we have a very good defensive line with Garrett, Z.Smith, D.Tomlinson, O.Okoronkwo. Linebackers are ok (Even though I thought the last DC used J.Owusu-Koramoah wrong) and I think our DBs are severely underrated, namely MJ Emerson. I think if he played anywhere else people would be raving about him being one of the best 2nd year corners in the league, to go along with Ward, Newsome, Thornhill, Delpit, McLeod.  

Honestly, my largest source of optimism comes from Jim Schwartz, I think he has the reputation to get the most out of the most and the most out of the least and also put guys in the proper position to be successful. A few Examples:

- Schwartz was rumored to want a better defensive line, Berry brought in some new guys who can get after it.

- Having Denzel Ward play in the slot on occasion (which he was a stud at at OSU, when they had Lattimore and Conley and ranked 3rd in the country defensively) and having Newsome outside where he is more natural at.

- Having JOK as an apex player as opposed to having him in the box with undersized DTs getting his face beat in by guards.

- Putting a premium on run defense as much as pass rush

- playing more man coverage which matches the personnel's skill set

I just think schematically its going to be night and day from where we were and I think we have guys who can be playmakers and can match up with a lot of teams if used right. This is all premature of course but I think Schwartz is proven, they have the potential to be top 5 IMO, but would be totally good with anything 10-15 realistically. 

I agree here on the Browns, actually. Should be much better in 2023.

[candyman93]

2 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

When dealing with my Browns you have to preface things with "on paper" but on paper we have a very good defensive line with Garrett, Z.Smith, D.Tomlinson, O.Okoronkwo. Linebackers are ok (Even though I thought the last DC used J.Owusu-Koramoah wrong) and I think our DBs are severely underrated, namely MJ Emerson. I think if he played anywhere else people would be raving about him being one of the best 2nd year corners in the league, to go along with Ward, Newsome, Thornhill, Delpit, McLeod.  

Honestly, my largest source of optimism comes from Jim Schwartz, I think he has the reputation to get the most out of the most and the most out of the least and also put guys in the proper position to be successful. A few Examples:

- Schwartz was rumored to want a better defensive line, Berry brought in some new guys who can get after it.

- Having Denzel Ward play in the slot on occasion (which he was a stud at at OSU, when they had Lattimore and Conley and ranked 3rd in the country defensively) and having Newsome outside where he is more natural at.

- Having JOK as an apex player as opposed to having him in the box with undersized DTs getting his face beat in by guards.

- Putting a premium on run defense as much as pass rush

- playing more man coverage which matches the personnel's skill set

I just think schematically its going to be night and day from where we were and I think we have guys who can be playmakers and can match up with a lot of teams if used right. This is all premature of course but I think Schwartz is proven, they have the potential to be top 5 IMO, but would be totally good with anything 10-15 realistically. 

If you look at raw ability, our defense should be miles ahead of our offense.

 
But coaching is very lopsided. Stefanski managed to make Jacoby Brissett look fantastic at times last year. Bill Callahan is the best o-line coach in football and coaches up all pros.

 

Joe Woods did the complete opposite and crapped the bed with the guys he had on defense.

[Trojan]

Cleveland if players fit new DC scheme and play up to potential, and Falcons if Okudah makes a huge jump to the talent level he showed in college. Raiders might be able to make a jump if Tyree Wilson is randomly the best thing since sliced bread. The corners are no names but the Raiders should have some decent man coverage guys but if Maxx and Tyree ball out a jump from awful to productive could happen. I'd put Raiders as like 1% chance and Browns/Falcons far more likely. All three benefit from potential top run games which drains clock theoretically. 

[ET80]

21 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Which team(s) in the 2022 bottom ten will wind up in the 2023 top 10?

Gonna go homer here - Derek Stingley in a man coverage scheme, a S duo of Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre providing over the top protection, Desmond King playing full time in the slot, an improved front seven with Will Anderson in the Nick Bosa “Wide 9 edge” role and a scheme derived from DeMeco Ryans vs Lovie Smith antiquated Cover 2 scheme tells me the Texans defense is going to be formidable. 

You compound that against a relatively weaker schedule and - statistically - the defense is going to put up good numbers. Whether or not it puts up wins is another story entirely.

[Daniel]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Gonna go homer here - Derek Stingley in a man coverage scheme, a S duo of Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre providing over the top protection, Desmond King playing full time in the slot, an improved front seven with Will Anderson in the Nick Bosa “Wide 9 edge” role and a scheme derived from DeMeco Ryans vs Lovie Smith antiquated Cover 2 scheme tells me the Texans defense is going to be formidable. 

You compound that against a relatively weaker schedule and - statistically - the defense is going to put up good numbers. Whether or not it puts up wins is another story entirely.

Houston's defense gets two games against the Titans and Colts offenses and the entire NFC South.  All the AFCS teams should have dominant defenses on paper.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Daniel

[minutemancl]

Defense, historically, is highly variable year over year, even when the personnel stays basically the same. Elite edge rushers generally remain elite edge rushers, but secondary players seemingly improve and regress randomly year over year, even the 'elite' ones.

One constant among top defenses seems to be the coordinators. Great defensive coordinators field good defenses pretty consistently.

Miami finished the season as a bottom-6 passing defense. With the addition of Fangio and Ramsey, you can almost be certain that will improve.

Minnesota had a god awful pass defense last year as well. I don't think their personnel in the secondary improved really at all (they had a lot of turnover, but I think most of them are lateral moves), but bringing in Flores to replace Donatell will be a huge boost and I expect them to move to at least middle of the pack. 

Those 2 stand out to me as defenses that could drastically improve this year.

[onejayhawk]

19 hours ago, Trojan said:

Cleveland if players fit new DC scheme and play up to potential, and Falcons if Okudah makes a huge jump to the talent level he showed in college. Raiders might be able to make a jump if Tyree Wilson is randomly the best thing since sliced bread. The corners are no names but the Raiders should have some decent man coverage guys but if Maxx and Tyree ball out a jump from awful to productive could happen. I'd put Raiders as like 1% chance and Browns/Falcons far more likely. All three benefit from potential top run games which drains clock theoretically. 

Cleveland was not a bottom-ten defense. 

They were a middling defense. Are you suggesting that they will be better than Baltimore and New England in 2022?

Edited June 9, 2023 by onejayhawk

[SmittyBacall]

What’s the best metric to rank defenses? DVOA?

[BetterCallSaul]

6 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Cleveland was not a bottom-ten defense. 

They were a middling defense. Are you suggesting that they will be as good as Baltimore or New England?

The Browns were dreadful defensively. Middling defense?!?! We would’ve been a playoff team. 

[scar988]

5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

What’s the best metric to rank defenses? DVOA?

That's what I use.