Surprise Teams - Defense

[FrantikRam]

On 6/9/2023 at 9:53 AM, SmittyBacall said:

What’s the best metric to rank defenses? DVOA?

 

I like to just use yards per play allowed. Best indicator for consistently winning play in and play out.

Obviously playing poor offenses will make that look better, but that can be true of DVOA as well.

[SmittyBacall]

9 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

I like to just use yards per play allowed. Best indicator for consistently winning play in and play out.

Obviously playing poor offenses will make that look better, but that can be true of DVOA as well.

Eh, that can also be skewed by a lot of factors. Plus, points allowed > yards.

[scar988]

6 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Eh, that can also be skewed by a lot of factors. Plus, points allowed > yards.

I'd argue points per drive allowed > any other stat outside of DVOA.

[DABEARSLCF04]

The Addition of Fangio alone to the Dolphins coaching staff makes that defense much improved.

[BetterCallSaul]

5 hours ago, DABEARSLCF04 said:

The Addition of Fangio alone to the Dolphins coaching staff makes that defense much improved.

Fangio’s defenses have been getting abused in recent years though. I think it’s a little outdated and fundamentally unsound, what he does. It aims to confuse QB’s deep down the field, but it concedes so much in the run game and short passing game. And because the schemes are confusing and complex, there’s a lot of coverage busts deep anyways.

I think you’re gonna start to see more NFL defenses taking away short game stuff, as OC’s have had a lot of success working underneath as DC’s have built schemes to try and stop the Mahomes chuckfest offense & have forgotten about the easy yardage.

Weren’t the Dolphins a solid defensive team last year anyways? Can’t imagine they improve much, as I was under the impression they were somewhere in the 10-15 range, no?

[FrantikRam]

22 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Eh, that can also be skewed by a lot of factors. Plus, points allowed > yards.

 

The way most people view points allowed? The 2020 Rams offense turned the ball over a lot - very few people actually differentiate D/ST scores from points allowed, and nobody allows for short fields. This game in particular is the epitome of what I'm talking about:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202011010mia.htm

 

That's most likely a historical outlier - I doubt many teams have scored 28 points while netting less than 150 yards - but even just allowing a few defensive or special teams TDs in a skews 

EPA would be better, but is just a fancier way of getting to what YPA already tells us, but with some nuance to give more credit for "only" gaining 2 yards on a 3rd and 1 than YPA would.

[e16bball]

On 6/9/2023 at 6:32 PM, onejayhawk said:

Which makes the transformation even harder to understand. The two DT were beasts but from where does the rest of the improvement come? The scoring defense improved from 2.5 ppg over the league average to 1.7 ppg under the league average.

I realize I’m a little late to this party, but the biggest issue at play in the huge jump the WAS defense made last season was really just how inexplicably terrible they were in 2021. 

It’s been largely the same defense since 2020. Same DC, same scheme, basically the same core of key players. In 2020, they were 3rd in DVOA. In 2022, they were 9th in DVOA. Both of which make a lot of sense, when you look at the amount of talent on the defense.

The aberration is actually 2021, when they were absolutely awful. 27th in DVOA, and just painful to watch on TV. Why? They were pretty weak at LB (with Jamin Davis struggling as a rookie) and William Jackson was a very failed FA acquisition, but I think, more than anything, it was a lot of “soft” factors — overconfidence, lack of cohesion, maybe some freelancing/stat chasing by the DL, and some absolutely brutal work in the secondary. 

[AkronsWitness]

On 6/12/2023 at 4:01 PM, FrantikRam said:

 

I like to just use yards per play allowed. Best indicator for consistently winning play in and play out.

Obviously playing poor offenses will make that look better, but that can be true of DVOA as well.

I've saw a coaches interview with all the Big10 Head Coaches and they were asked what the most overrated stat is and like 80% of them said Yards Allowed. 

Yards don't matter if you don't let them score points (or hold them to FGs every drive)

Edited June 15, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[onejayhawk]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

I realize I’m a little late to this party, but the biggest issue at play in the huge jump the WAS defense made last season was really just how inexplicably terrible they were in 2021. 

It’s been largely the same defense since 2020. Same DC, same scheme, basically the same core of key players. In 2020, they were 3rd in DVOA. In 2022, they were 9th in DVOA. Both of which make a lot of sense, when you look at the amount of talent on the defense.

The aberration is actually 2021, when they were absolutely awful. 27th in DVOA, and just painful to watch on TV. Why? They were pretty weak at LB (with Jamin Davis struggling as a rookie) and William Jackson was a very failed FA acquisition, but I think, more than anything, it was a lot of “soft” factors — overconfidence, lack of cohesion, maybe some freelancing/stat chasing by the DL, and some absolutely brutal work in the secondary. 

Also COVID. 2021 has a lot of aberrations. Some teams came to play and some did not. 

43 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

I've saw a coaches interview with all the Big10 Head Coaches and they were asked what the most overrated stat is and like 80% of them said Yards Allowed. 

They do not say that about yards per play. 

Yards and points are somewhat related to the speed of the offense and the amount of passing. Yards per play eliminate that problem.

43 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

Yards don't matter if you don't let them score points (or hold them to FGs every drive)

Points per drive is another good one.

[AkronsWitness]

13 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Also COVID. 2021 has a lot of aberrations. Some teams came to play and some did not. 

They do not say that about yards per play. 

Yards and points are somewhat related to the speed of the offense and the amount of passing. Yards per play eliminate that problem.

Points per drive is another good one.

Yes and no, there is something to say about a 'bend but dont break defense' or a really really good redzone defense. Regardless, I dont view yards as any sort of relevant metric since the game is won by points--not yards.

I'd rather have a elite top tier redzone defense who gives up 500+ yards a game and holds teams to 17 points a game than a team who is stingy on yards per play but has a average redzone defense that gives up 24 points per game.

Speaking of......Redzone defense is a more important stat than anything with the word 'yards' in it.

Edited June 15, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[BetterCallSaul]

Everything stat-wise is so subjective. Every stat needs context.

A team with a putrid turnover prone offense is gonna have terrible scoring stats despite probably not giving up as much yardage on long drives. A team with a good offense that plays field control will likely give up more yards, but give up less points.

There is no true stat that can automatically tell a story on someone’s actual ability offensively or defensively. They’re tools, but flawed tools. 

[DoleINGout]

On 6/8/2023 at 11:00 AM, Daniel said:

and Dupree was replaced by Arden Key

 

On 6/8/2023 at 11:02 AM, scar988 said:

Added Bud Dupree to the Edge rotation

interesting contrast between first two posts of the thread in how a player is addition by subtraction for the titans yet also addition by addition for the falcons.

[scar988]

1 hour ago, DoleINGout said:

 

interesting contrast between first two posts of the thread in how a player is addition by subtraction for the titans yet also addition by addition for the falcons.

Who would you rather have in your rotation? 

Adetekunbo Ogundeji - 541 snaps, 2 sacks, 0 hits, 4 hurries, 10 tackle attempts missed, 53.8 PFF run grade 

Bud Dupree - 453 snaps, 4 sacks, 4 hits, 21 hurries, 4 tackle attempts missed, 61.8 PFF run grade

Dupree may not have been good enough for Tennessee, but for the third guy in the pass rush rotation here, he's plenty good.

[Daniel]

1 hour ago, DoleINGout said:

 

interesting contrast between first two posts of the thread in how a player is addition by subtraction for the titans yet also addition by addition for the falcons.

Lol, yeah, we all only see the best in our team’s signing.

Dupree would be fine as a number three pass rusher that doesn’t see the field a ton. That would minimize his problems with availability and production.

[scar988]

4 hours ago, Daniel said:

Lol, yeah, we all only see the best in our team’s signing.

Dupree would be fine as a number three pass rusher that doesn’t see the field a ton. That would minimize his problems with availability and production.

Ideally for the Falcons, that’s where he slots in the rotation. Ideally, Ebiketie is 1 and Malone is 2 with Dupree 3 and Carter 4. He’s an upgrade over Ogundeji either way though. Ogundeji has zero pass rush abilities. That’s why it’s a big upgrade for Atlanta.