Surprise Teams - Defense

[scar988]

10 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Cleveland was not a bottom-ten defense. 

They were a middling defense. Are you suggesting that they will be better than Baltimore and New England in 2022?

23rd in DVOA. Technically, that's a bottom 10 defense.

[Daniel]

7 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

What’s the best metric to rank defenses? DVOA?

I don't know that there is one really good metric, honestly.  Even DVOA can be really skewed by a team with a bad offense, and by teams that have to play a lot of high power offenses IIRC.

I think you can look at stats, but I think you have to take an aggregate approach, and even then, offenses contribute so much.

I remember a few years ago, I don't remember the specific year, the Titans, statistically had a terrible defense, despite having really good players at every position group, and it was because they had a super inept offense that couldn't hold the ball and constantly turned the ball over in enemy territory.  In actuality, the defense was pretty good, but they gave up a lot of points because of the turnover thing, and tiredness was usually a factor by the fourth quarter as well.

The next year there was a lot of offensive turnover and miraculously, the defense went from bottom of the league to top half or so with the same players.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Daniel

[onejayhawk]

1 minute ago, BetterCallSaul said:

The Browns were dreadful defensively. Middling defense?!?! We would’ve been a playoff team. 

Yes, middling.

I will grant that they were on the lower end of the pack--17th in yards allowed, 21st in scoring-- but there was clear separation from the bad defenses. If you take an analytic number like DVOA, they might be the 10th worst, but again with clear separation from the bottom nine.

[Daniel]

DVOA has the Broncos at number 11 last year.  From what I remember, that was one of the stoutest defenses in the NFL.  Really hard for me to believe that the Pats had a better one than they did.

[BetterCallSaul]

9 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Yes, middling.

I will grant that they were on the lower end of the pack--17th in yards allowed, 21st in scoring-- but there was clear separation from the bad defenses. If you take an analytic number like DVOA, they might be the 10th worst, but again with clear separation from the bottom nine.

Idc what stats point to. Stats can lie. I watch an epic ton of football & the Browns defense was abysmal. Bottom 5. 

[ET80]

54 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Houston's defense gets two games against the Titans and Colts offenses and the entire NFC South.  All the AFCS teams should have dominant defenses on paper.

Likewise, Tennessee gets two rookies at QB and the entire NFCS. I also think both Tennessee and Houston get at least one game vs Jacksonville while T Cam Robinson is suspended. Gonna be a lot of inflated numbers this season…

In the case of Houston, there’s literally no depth to be mindful of. If more than one of the young guns gets hurt, throw my assessment out the window.

[Daniel]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

Likewise, Tennessee gets two rookies at QB and the entire NFCS. I also think both Tennessee and Houston get at least one game vs Jacksonville while T Cam Robinson is suspended. Gonna be a lot of inflated numbers this season…

In the case of Houston, there’s literally no depth to be mindful of. If more than one of the young guns gets hurt, throw my assessment out the window.

Jacksonville ought to be the greatest beneficiary.  They play all three bad offenses twice, and the NFCS.  That's 10 games against crap offenses.  If they aren't statistically a top 10 defense this season, then they are hurting on that side of the ball.

[MSURacerDT55]

27 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said:

Idc what stats point to. Stats can lie. I watch an epic ton of football & the Browns defense was abysmal. Bottom 5. 

Yeah, we weren't disastrous and even had games where we looked good defensively but our main issue was:

1. Stopping the run

2.Generating a significant pass rush without blitzing 

3.Getting off the field on 3rd down  

Those things killed us, that's what made us bad 

Edited June 9, 2023 by MSURacerDT55

[onejayhawk]

6 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said:

Idc what stats point to. Stats can lie. I watch an epic ton of football & the Browns defense was abysmal. Bottom 5. 

No, it wasn't. 

The Bears were last and not even they were dreadful. The Raiders, Falcons, and Giants were very bad to bad. The next tier is Lions, Vikings, Jaguars, Panthers, and Cardinals. Call that poor for lack of a good term. The Browns are in the next tier up with the Texans, Seahawks, and Packers, call it mediocre. The point is that it is part of the main pack of teams. There is less separation between the Browns at #23  and the Packers at #19 than there is between them and the Cardinals at #24

[Dash]

49 minutes ago, Daniel said:

DVOA has the Broncos at number 11 last year.  From what I remember, that was one of the stoutest defenses in the NFL.  Really hard for me to believe that the Pats had a better one than they did.

Probably because the NE defense was 6th in turnovers per drive compared to 19th for DEN. 

Den was 4th in yards allowed per drive and NE was 8th so that is most likely the main difference. 

Edited June 9, 2023 by Dash

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Considering the amount of 1st round picks on our defense I could see us up there if we tap into potential but too many what if guys to expect 

[scar988]

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Considering the amount of 1st round picks on our defense I could see us up there if we tap into potential but too many what if guys to expect 

Not to mention y'all had some good defensive FAs last year with Foye and Fatukasi. Both guys should help improve that unit.

[Trojan]

3 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Cleveland was not a bottom-ten defense. 

They were a middling defense. Are you suggesting that they will be better than Baltimore and New England in 2022?

I would think the potential of the Browns is up there with any team. Joe Woods is a bottom couple DC, and Jim Schwartz is a good DC. The corners are top tier of tandem but need to play in man and Woods refused. All three LBs missed significant time and should be healthy. Clowney disgruntled for potentially less disgruntled Zadarius Smith. Dalvin Tomlinson and Sia Ika should be huge improvements to run defense. Thornhill replaces John Johnson as a FS for cheaper, and lets Delpit potentially play the role he starred at for LSU. If things break their way it's a great team. Winfrey should be cut, but Elliott/Hurst/Hill/Togiai should get a 3 tech to emerge if not Tomlinson+Ika could be like those 09ish Jaguars defense with two super sized DTs just killing the middle. If injuries strike or they don't adjust to new DC I could see a return to gross, but Cleveland once again looks great in the offseason minus impressive depth.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Trojan

[Pugger]

It will be a surprise if the Packers' D finally plays up to it's potential.  😕

[Dr A W Niloc]

3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

What’s the best metric to rank defenses? DVOA?

     Excellent question.  IMHO, DVOA is the best evaluative (i.e. of how well the defenses played in 2022) indicator, with Yards & Points surrendered close behind, while aggregate player rankings have been the best predictive (e.g. of 2023) indicator, though it has to be adjusted for coaching, ease of schedule, injuries, etc.

==  Defense:  Aggregate PFF Starters, DVOAs, 2023 Ease of Schedule  =

PFF Dfns SpTm        DST  Yielded | PFF Dfns SpTm        DST  Yielded
Agg DVOA DVOA  Team  EoS  Yds Pts | Agg DVOA DVOA  Team  EoS  Yds Pts
***                               | **
 1.  6th 13th  Phil   21  1st 7th | 17. 27th 30th  Minn   32   31  30
 2.  1st 15th  S.F.   11  2nd 1st | 18. 29th 22nd  NYGs  4th   25  22
 3. 19th 24th  Tenn   15   23 T12 | 19. 14th 26th  Indi   23   15  29
 4.  5th 21st  Jets   18  4th 2nd | 20.  7th  3rd  Balt   12  6th 3rd
 5.  9th  7th  Wash  7th  3rd 8th | 21. 16th  6th  LACh  5th   20  23
 6.   13 31st  T.B.   30   10  15 | 22. 17th 19th  K.C.  6th   14  18
 7. 23rd 14th  Clev  1st   12  19 | 23. 28th  9th  Detr   16   32  28
 8.   11 18th  Cinc   22   17 5th | 24.  8th 25th  N.O.   29   26 9th
 9.   10 29th  Denv   24  8th T12 | 25. 30th  5th  Atla  2nd   26 9th
10.   12 27th  Pitt  2nd   11  10 | 26. 32nd 16th  Chic   31   29  32
11.  2nd 10th  Dall   28   13 6th | 27. 26th 11th  Jkvl   14   24  14
12.  3rd 32nd  N.E.  3rd  9th  11 | 28. 21st  4th  Seat   27   28  25
13. 20th 17th  G.B.   26   16  16 | 29. 25th  8th  Crla   25   22  17
14. 22nd  2nd  Hous   10   31  27 | 30. 31st 12th  Rdrs   13   27  26
15. 15th 28th  Miam   20   19  24 | 31. 18th 23rd  Rams   17   18  20
16.  4th  1st  Buff   19  7th 4th | 32. 24th 20th  Ariz  8th   21  31

     Tennessee has quietly assembled a defense that is third best when healthy.  Cleveland continues to underperform but that could change in light of their cushy schedule.  Green Bay was more disappointing than these numbers show;  they entered 2022 with one of the league's most talented defenses.  Pittsburgh will sneak into the top ten (and the playoffs) with some help from their soft schedule (8th easiest in overall win/loss terms).  The Patriots and Commanders landing in the top ten defenses shouldn't surprise many.  Houston could make an appearance here despite the spotlight being on their offense.  The Ravens would be top ten on defense if they could field 9+ defenders per game but we all know that ain't gonna happen.

      A lot of the bottom dwellers should have stuck to defense in the draft.