Let's talk rookie TE's in the NFL.....

[vegas492]

Since we have two of them....and early returns from Optional Team Activities are promising....what can we expect as rookies?  

I did a quick data analysis from 2021 and 2022 TE's drafted in the 2'nd through 4'th round.  Here are my results.

2021 had 1 drafted in the second round (McBride). 2 drafted in the third round (Woods, Dulcich).  7 drafted in the 4'th round (Ruckert, Otton, Bellinger, Kolar, Ferguson, Likely, Okonkwo)

2022 had 1 drafted in the second round (Freiermuth).  3 drafted in the third round (Long, Tremble, McKitty).  2 drafted in the 4'th round (Bates, Granson)

Of those 4 were statistically irrelevant, meaning they didn't crack 100 yards on the year.  (Ruckert, Kolar, Long, McKity)

So, 25% of the TE's drafted in the past two years, in round 2-4, did next to nothing, if not nothing.

75% produced.

Highest stats as rookies belonged to...Freiermuth.  16 games played, 9 starts, 79 targets, 60 receptions 497 yards.  7 TD's.  The next high yardage total was Okonkwo (would anyone have guessed that????) at 32 catches and 450 yards and 3 TD's.

Here are the averages for all TE's, excluding the 4 that I declared as statistically irrelevant.

15.3 games played.  7.4 games started.  43 targets.  30 receptions.  306 yards.  2.25 TDs.

Given that Degura is an H-back and we often play one or two TE's with him.....then it looks like our two TE's should be in line to produce....

60 receptions, 612 yards. 4.5 TD's.  Let's round up to 5.  Combined.

You taking the over or under?  Remember, 25% of those drafted guys were statistically irrelevant.

Me?  I'm taking the over.  I feel like Musgrave is going to have a Freiermuth type season and Kraft is going to be a little under the average.  And that is based on almost no one ahead of them on the depth chart, a fresh/clean start at QB who won't care who is getting passes and running the MLF offense which should have some TE "setup" plays.

Name	Round taken	Games	Games started	targets	receptions	yards	TD
Trey McBride	2	16	13	39	29	265	1
Jelanie Woods	3	15	2	40	25	312	3
Greg Dulcich	3	10	6	55	33	411	2
Jeremy Ruckert	4								statistically irrelevant
Cade Otton	4	16	11	65	42	391	2
Daniel Bellinger	4	12	11	35	30	268	2
Charlie Kolar	4								statistically irrelevant
Jake Ferguson	4	16	8	22	19	174	2
Isaiah Likely	4	16	2	60	36	373	3
Chigoziem Okonkwo	4	17	8	46	32	450	3
Pat Freiermuth	2	16	9	79	60	497	7
Hunter Long	3								statistically irrelevant
Tommy Tremble	3	16	11	35	20	180	1
Tre McKitty	3								statistically irrelevant
John Bates	4	17	8	25	20	249	1
Kylen Granson	4	17	0	15	11	106	0
		184	89	516	357	3676	27
		15.33333	7.416666667	43	29.75	306.33333	2.25

 

[Old Guy]

If they both play considerable time in at least 12 games, they go over these numbers. In order to do that they have to beat out Tyler Davis. If they can't beat him out, we're screwed. 

[turf toe]

you didn't mention Pitts who surpassed a 1000 yrds, I think it depends how the rookie TE is used, in a 21 or 11 scheme that TE has to be able to know his blocking responsibilities or Lafleur wont put them in, in a 12 scheme, which we do often enough they can just be a receiver.

[vegas492]

5 minutes ago, turf toe said:

you didn't mention Pitts who surpassed a 1000 yrds, I think it depends how the rookie TE is used, in a 21 or 11 scheme that TE has to be able to know his blocking responsibilities or Lafleur wont put them in, in a 12 scheme, which we do often enough they can just be a receiver.

Pitts is more of a WR and he was a first round pick.  Neither of our drafted TE's are/were first round picks, let alone picked as high as Pitts was (which was foolish).

I did not take any stats for any TE drafted in round one because that is not fair to where Musgrave and Kraft were selected.

[ThatJerkDave]

Assuming health (knock on wood), we certainly are going to get high scores in both starts and games played from our rookies.  While Love may be more likely to throw over the middle than Rodgers, I would be surprised if the offense turns into a TE centric one like KC, with Travis Kelce getting 150 targets.  Some "TE" targets were also Lazard reps where he played big slot.  I imagine that Musgrave will see some of those looks as well.  

What I would like to see is 10.2 ypc and a TD on ~8% of targets, both like the average, regardless of the number of targets.  I do feel that at least one of the two will see more targets than the typical rookie TE because the cupboard is so bare.  Last season the Packers had 97 targets to TEs (I count the Bakh target debacle as a TE snap), for 676 yards.  I think they can at least match that.

[ThatJerkDave]

51 minutes ago, turf toe said:

you didn't mention Pitts who surpassed a 1000 yrds, I think it depends how the rookie TE is used, in a 21 or 11 scheme that TE has to be able to know his blocking responsibilities or Lafleur wont put them in, in a 12 scheme, which we do often enough they can just be a receiver.

I would compare Pitts more to Lazard.  He is a big WR, that doesn't line up on the end of the line very often.  Even Musgrave will line up on the line more than you would want Pitts there, despite being a "TE"

[TheEagle]

9 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Pitts is more of a WR and he was a first round pick.  Neither of our drafted TE's are/were first round picks, let alone picked as high as Pitts was (which was foolish).

I did not take any stats for any TE drafted in round one because that is not fair to where Musgrave and Kraft were selected.

Why would you not include Pitts because he went in the first round (higher than our guys) but include 4th round picks (Kraft went in the top half of the third round)?

[Refugee]

For both guys combined? I’ll take the over. There is definitely an investment and some real young talent there that we haven’t had in a long while. Rookie TEs will probably not shine but I think they will be part of the plan until they show they can’t get it done. This is the season for optimistic reason. 

[Zycho32]

I take the under, but not by much. Let's say... 57 receptions, 605 yards, 5 TDs.

The reason come down to this;
1. Rookie and Youngster Play will be erratic and shaky, at least for the first half of the season.
2. The ball's most likely going to be spread around.
3. Even in a 12 or 22 formation(two TE), the odds of both of them being on the field won't be great. One of the vets(Deguara and Davis) will likely be on the field guaranteeing someone who knows their role in the plays called with total certainty.
4. Assume some degree of stubbornness when it comes to Davis getting reps on offense. This staff seems to like playing their 'underdog' favorites for some reason.

[Mr Bad Example]

I voted before I relaised the question was for both.

I think that those numbers are damn close to whats going to happen. I'd say over on catches and tds, under on yds if I was able to parlay all 3

[craig]

I voted the over, as an optimist who wants it to become true.  But I don't expect it, for the reasons Zycho just detailed.  

Why it might:

1. Packers TE caught 76 balls last year.  With faster/better talent, might that increase?
2. Packers spent 2nd and 3rd round picks on TE.  That implies they value TE-play, including receiving.
3. Neither Musgrave nor Jace were drafted assuming they'd be power-blockers.  They were drafted because Gute/MLF thought they could run, threaten as pass-receivers, run seams, etc..  It failed with Jace and hasn't happened beyond Tonyan thus far, but I'm thinking MLF philosophically has always believed TE's can be important and well-used targets in the pass game?  
4. OL and TE-targets are closely linked.  When the line is struggling to protect in pass, TE priority is blocking not receiving.  Last year, the line was shaky and changing constantly, and TE's were used heavily to help, not to run routes.  Likewise play-calls valued quick throws, so not much time for a TE to first block for a second, and then go out and catch a pass.  I'm hopeful the Bakhti and Jenkins will be relatively healthy and available from game one, and that the other spots will be a year older and better and more settled.  Runyan had never played an NFL game at RG before, and neither Nijman no Tom had started an NFL game at RT.  *IF* the o-line is better and more stable, coach has more freedom to send TE's on routes, and QB has more time to see them.  

Why it probably won't, to repeat some of Zycho's notes:

1. As Zycho said, rookies TE's are rookie TE's, both as route guys and as blockers. 
2. They won't often be primary targets, and Davis and Deguara will get a lot of snaps; the rookies probably won't early on. 
3. Love will spread it around. 
4. Given more experience with the WR and backs, plus given that in his previous 3 years in the offense TE has rarely been the #1 target, Love may take a while before he ever throws lots to TE. 
5. MLF will presumably run a super conservative offense.  With a hypothetically predictable offense, defenses might have an easy time defending us?  In which case we do a LOT of punting and just not run that many plays on offense?  
6. Even in his breakout healthy year, Tonyan never caught 60 passes or got 600 yards.  

[vegas492]

On 6/9/2023 at 9:03 PM, TheEagle said:

Why would you not include Pitts because he went in the first round (higher than our guys) but include 4th round picks (Kraft went in the top half of the third round)?

Because if you read the first post.....I excluded first round picks, as Musgrave and Kraft were not first round picks.  Let alone a top selection like Pitts.  And Pitts is more of a WR than TE.

Had we taken a first round TE, I would have looked at just first round TE production.  But we didn't.  We took a round 2 and round 3 TE.  I thought the more accurate sample would be TE's taken in rounds 2-4.

Still do.

If you would like, feel free to re-do the work and look at just TE's taken around where our guys were.  Have at it.

[vegas492]

On 6/10/2023 at 8:32 AM, Zycho32 said:

I take the under, but not by much. Let's say... 57 receptions, 605 yards, 5 TDs.

The reason come down to this;
1. Rookie and Youngster Play will be erratic and shaky, at least for the first half of the season.
2. The ball's most likely going to be spread around.
3. Even in a 12 or 22 formation(two TE), the odds of both of them being on the field won't be great. One of the vets(Deguara and Davis) will likely be on the field guaranteeing someone who knows their role in the plays called with total certainty.
4. Assume some degree of stubbornness when it comes to Davis getting reps on offense. This staff seems to like playing their 'underdog' favorites for some reason.

I agree about point #4.  Stubborness.  We are the team that played Jake Hanson last year.  No doubt we will try to play Davis, even though we should not.

Edited June 12, 2023 by vegas492

[Old Guy]

On 6/10/2023 at 9:32 AM, Zycho32 said:

I take the under, but not by much. Let's say... 57 receptions, 605 yards, 5 TDs.

The reason come down to this;
1. Rookie and Youngster Play will be erratic and shaky, at least for the first half of the season.
2. The ball's most likely going to be spread around.
3. Even in a 12 or 22 formation(two TE), the odds of both of them being on the field won't be great. One of the vets(Deguara and Davis) will likely be on the field guaranteeing someone who knows their role in the plays called with total certainty.
4. Assume some degree of stubbornness when it comes to Davis getting reps on offense. This staff seems to like playing their 'underdog' favorites for some reason.

1. valid point, but they could actually get those numbers in the final 9 games as it is not out of the question for those two to be the primary TE targets getting most of the reps.

2. Even better because that means they will get enough opportunities at catches, yards and TDs.

3. Deguara plays H-Back. I don't remember many plays where he didn't start off the formation as the fullback. Don't see that changing and he's not been impressive in his first three years.

4. Could it happen? Yes. Look at how young our WR room is this year. The plan is to let Jordan Love grow with young guys. That also includes Musgrave and Kraft. 

I got these two guys combining for over 800 yards, 7 TDs and 75 receptions. This makes one assumption, good health for both of them. 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Old Guy

[ThatJerkDave]

Is Tyler Davis really that bad? And no, I am not proclaiming that Davis is some kind of sleeping dragon or anything.  I mean, can he play STs, and eat some snaps at a near enough neutral level while the young TEs get their bearings?